Industry Overview - As of May 7, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totals 551,900 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from the previous period, with East China experiencing a decrease of 12,900 tons and South China seeing an increase of 27,400 tons [1] - Northwest methanol enterprises signed contracts for 18,600 tons, a decrease of 43,200 tons month-on-month, with sample enterprises having 237,800 tons of orders pending shipment, down 11,900 tons from the previous period [2] - Domestic methanol comprehensive profits remain high, with weighted operating loads continuing to rise, while international methanol production (excluding China) is at 1,080,000 tons, down 16,900 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 75.67%, down 1.18 percentage points [2] Market Sentiment - According to Wenguang Futures, domestic supply is expected to continue rising, with imports gradually increasing, while traditional demand is expected to weaken, leading to a gradual softening of the methanol supply-demand balance and potential price declines [3] - The current methanol industry chain profits are concentrated in production enterprises, with profits likely to shift downstream, further compressing production profits [3] - Continuous declines in energy prices, such as crude oil, are expected to further dampen market sentiment [3] Price Trends - Ningzheng Futures indicates that coal prices are expected to remain stable, with current methanol profits being acceptable, but downstream demand is declining, leading to a slight accumulation of port inventories, primarily in South China [4] - The inland methanol market is stable but slightly weak, with auction transactions being acceptable, while port methanol market negotiations are generally average [4] - The methanol September contract is expected to experience short-term fluctuations with a bearish bias, facing resistance around 2,265 [4]