| | | | 设资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31号 | | ITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 蜈致 据 日报 期货从业号:F305427 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | 2025/08/21 | | 指标 | | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 晋城大烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | FV AN | 川渝液化气 | 4130.00 | 4140.00 | 10. 00 | | | | 国际大然气 | 10. 52 | 10.43 | -0. 09 | | | | 太仓 | 2270.00 | 2290.00 | 20. 00 | 昨日甲醇多地价格小幅上调。西北主 | | 肌喷价格 | 内蒙 | 2080. 00 | 2080. 00 | 0.00 | 产区企业库存低位,下游 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of domestic coking coal and coke prices and potential supply - side policies may boost market sentiment. Although the absolute value of port inventory is still low, production profit is good, domestic production and operating rate are still high, international methanol operating rate has rebounded to a high level, methanol imports have recovered, downstream profit is poor, downstream demand is under pressure, and inventory has increased. Therefore, methanol is likely to fluctuate. For single - side and option trading, the report suggests range - bound operations and selling straddle options [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory reached 35.69 tons this week, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons or 1.31%. Port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly [7]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol output is estimated to be around 191.93 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 85.17%. The import sample arrival plan is estimated at 32.60 tons, including 16.70 tons of visible and 15.90 tons of invisible imports, and domestic trade is estimated at 3.5 - 4.0 tons [7]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased. The start - up rate of dimethyl ether remained flat, that of acetic acid increased, while those of formaldehyde and chloride decreased [7]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The import profit showed an inversion of - 43 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 122 yuan/ton, while the downstream profit suffered large losses, with the profit loss of MTO in East China still being large at - 1131 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coal Price**: Some traders are bullish on the traditional coal - using peak season, but the port inventory is still high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, short MA509. For PP - 3MA, short the spread. In option trading, sell straddle options [7][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of July 10, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2390 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 10, the basis relative to the September contract was - 8 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: Last week (20250704 - 0710), China's methanol output was 1909928 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77148 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.89% [66]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 31.03 tons, including 26.42 tons of foreign vessels and 4.61 tons of domestic trade vessels [71]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity is about 860 tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Overseas, the new methanol capacity is expected to be 505 tons [73][74]. 3.4 Demand - side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to May, the apparent consumption of methanol was 4577 tons, an increase of 7.6% [78]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Output**: Last week, the MTO operating rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55% [82]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of different traditional downstream products showed different trends, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [83][86]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [90]. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of July 9, 2025, the sample enterprise's pending order volume was 22.12 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 8.29% [98]. - **New Downstream Capacity**: In 2025, the new downstream capacity of methanol is mainly concentrated in the olefin field, with an estimated new olefin capacity of 236 tons and a theoretical new methanol demand of 660 tons. For traditional downstream, the new capacity is mainly in acetic acid and MTBE, with a theoretical new methanol demand of 587 tons [100]. 3.5 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 35.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons or 3.14% [104]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 71.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 tons or 6.71% [107]. - **Port Floating Storage**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [110].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weakening oscillatory trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - On June 9, 2025, the prices of methanol in multiple regions increased slightly. The inventory of enterprises in the main production areas in the northwest was low, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, leading to higher auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up the spot prices. Downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after the previous low - price replenishment [1] Supply - Domestic methanol production increased by 200 to 285,678, and the domestic operating rate rose by 0.06 to 88.74. The international operating rate remained unchanged at 68.73 [1] Inventory - Both enterprise and port inventories remained unchanged at 354,950 and 522,960 respectively [1] Demand - The number of pending orders remained unchanged at 249,892 [1] Operating Rates of Related Products - The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, methyl chloride, MTBE, etc. remained unchanged. The operating rate of formaldehyde in Shandong decreased by 10 to 910 [1] Associated Product Prices - The prices of acetic acid and methane chloride decreased by 30 and 170 respectively, while the price of MTBE increased by 60 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures have shown a slight increase in price, with a weekly fluctuation of 2.49%, while inventory levels are rising both domestically and internationally [1][2]. Market Overview - As of June 5, methanol inventory at East China ports reached 292,600 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from May 29 [2]. - Domestic methanol production facilities operated at 74.52% capacity, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points from the previous week, but an increase of 5.09 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to U.S. tariff policies, and the market is entering a seasonal low demand period [3]. - Ningzheng Futures noted stable coal prices and high domestic methanol production expectations, with port inventories continuing to rise [3]. - The short-term price forecast for methanol futures suggests a range of 2,220 to 2,320 yuan per ton, with potential resistance at 2,290 yuan [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Methanol is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The reasons are that Iranian plants are operating at high capacity, the supply is rapidly recovering, non-Iranian imports are also increasing, and the import volume has reached a five-year high. The domestic load has climbed to a high level after the Qingming Festival. With the return of domestic and foreign supply, the production pressure of methanol has increased. Although the subsequent MTO start-up is expected to increase, the traditional demand is average and will enter the off-season, making it difficult to digest the increased supply. Overall, methanol will enter a weakening period and start seasonal inventory accumulation [5]. - The prices of both the futures and spot markets of methanol have declined significantly. After the temporary improvement in trading due to the suspension of tariffs last week, the market has returned to a weak reality. The fundamentals have changed little this week, with the start-up in Iran recovering. There are still sufficient expectations for imports in the future. Although the Sierbang plant has restarted, the traditional downstream will enter the off-season, increasing the pressure. Currently, methanol is in a bearish scenario, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of inventory accumulation in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - End Profit and Load - **Production Profit**:动力煤价格弱势下行，目前处于季节性用电淡季，新能源、水电等清洁能源发电量增长，电厂日耗低位，港口出货以终端长协为主，市场参与者观望情绪浓厚，降库压力仍存，产地维持正常生产，下游多以刚需拉运为主。煤制端生产利润依然丰厚，天然气制利润承压 [48]. - **Domestic Start - up and Output**:近期部分装置检修，导致开工下滑，但整体仍处于高位。煤制开工是关注重点，占比70%以上，天然气制开工有明显季节性，焦炉气制受环保因素影响。甲醇日产量方面，非CTO总量为136,653吨，煤制（不含联醇）为110,000吨，天然气制为19,384吨等 [72][88]. Import Profit, External Supply, and Import Volume - **Import Profit and Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets**: The global methanol price has weakened. The CFR China price has declined following the domestic price. Although Southeast Asian plants are under maintenance, the demand is weak, and the price has dropped. The Indian price has decreased, and the European price has continued to decline significantly after stabilizing. The supply from the external market has increased, but there are few buyers. The import profit of Iranian goods and the price differences between Southeast Asia, India, the US, and Europe and China have shown different trends [99]. - **External Start - up Load and Output**: The external start - up has rebounded. The 1.65 - million - ton plant of Iranian usadana has reportedly restarted, and the start - up rates of Kareh and 2PC have also recovered. In other regions, a 1.3 - million - ton plant in Egypt has shut down, the 1.7 - million - ton plant of Petronas in Southeast Asia has been under maintenance since early May, and the Brunei plant is planned to be under maintenance at the end of May. The global daily start - up rates and daily outputs of different regions such as the Middle East, Iran, the US, South America, and Europe have different values [116][140]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: In April, the import volume was 787,700 tons, the export volume was 54,400 tons, and the net import volume was 723,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 262,700 tons compared to March. With the recovery of Iranian start - up, the import volume will rebound to a high level in May and June. The total arrival volume in the week was 180,000 tons, with 480,000 tons in East China and 460,000 tons in South China [151][146]. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream Profit and Load**: As the price of port methanol has declined, the profit of MTO has recovered, but the MTO plants in the inland are relatively under pressure due to the firm methanol price. In terms of plants, Sierbang was expected to be under maintenance from April 15 and restarted on May 19, Xingxing has increased its load to full capacity, Ningxia Baofeng Phase II is under maintenance until early June, Shandong Hengtong's MTO plant is operating at a low load, and China Coal Shaanxi Yulin plans to shut down for maintenance on May 10 for 40 days [155]. - **Traditional Downstream Profit and Load**: The traditional downstream is gradually weakening, but the profit has improved due to the decline in methanol price. Formaldehyde enterprises are under increasing pressure as the downstream panel factories enter the off - season and mainly make rigid demand purchases. The acetic acid plant is operating at a high level with relatively low overall pressure, and the dimethyl ether market has weak supply and demand. The MTBE load has declined from a high level, and MTBE production enterprises are suffering serious losses due to the decline in crude oil and refined oil prices. Currently, there are still export orders for support, but the future is expected to be weak. The profit and start - up of BDO are poor, and downstream buyers mainly make rigid demand purchases [189][195]. Inland and Port Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: According to Longzhong data, the inland inventory increased by 200 tons to 336,000 tons this week, and the enterprise order backlog was 235,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,400 tons. The market sentiment is poor, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased, and the transactions have decreased, resulting in a decline in the backlog of orders from sample enterprises and relatively stable inventory [234]. - **Port Inventory**: According to Zhuochuang data, the port inventory has slightly increased by 10,500 tons to 629,500 tons this week, with an increase of 32,000 tons in East China and a decrease of 21,500 tons in South China. The提货 volume has increased month - on - month, but the arrivals are also increasing, and the inventory in the downstream social warehouses and factory raw material warehouses has increased to a certain extent [260].

Industry Overview - As of May 7, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totals 551,900 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from the previous period, with East China experiencing a decrease of 12,900 tons and South China seeing an increase of 27,400 tons [1] - Northwest methanol enterprises signed contracts for 18,600 tons, a decrease of 43,200 tons month-on-month, with sample enterprises having 237,800 tons of orders pending shipment, down 11,900 tons from the previous period [2] - Domestic methanol comprehensive profits remain high, with weighted operating loads continuing to rise, while international methanol production (excluding China) is at 1,080,000 tons, down 16,900 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 75.67%, down 1.18 percentage points [2] Market Sentiment - According to Wenguang Futures, domestic supply is expected to continue rising, with imports gradually increasing, while traditional demand is expected to weaken, leading to a gradual softening of the methanol supply-demand balance and potential price declines [3] - The current methanol industry chain profits are concentrated in production enterprises, with profits likely to shift downstream, further compressing production profits [3] - Continuous declines in energy prices, such as crude oil, are expected to further dampen market sentiment [3] Price Trends - Ningzheng Futures indicates that coal prices are expected to remain stable, with current methanol profits being acceptable, but downstream demand is declining, leading to a slight accumulation of port inventories, primarily in South China [4] - The inland methanol market is stable but slightly weak, with auction transactions being acceptable, while port methanol market negotiations are generally average [4] - The methanol September contract is expected to experience short-term fluctuations with a bearish bias, facing resistance around 2,265 [4]

Group 1 - The explosion at Shahid Rajaee Port in Iran is not expected to significantly impact methanol supply, as the port does not handle methanol operations [1][2] - Iran's methanol production facilities are primarily located at Assaluyeh Port and Khomeini Port, which are far from the affected port [1] - Current methanol imports from Iran are projected to increase, with April imports estimated at 60,000 tons and May expected to rise to around 70,000 tons [3] Group 2 - Iran accounts for approximately 55% of China's methanol imports, with a total import volume exceeding 10 million tons annually [1][2] - The explosion has not disrupted the operations at Assaluyeh and Khomeini ports, where methanol loading and unloading are proceeding normally [2] - Domestic methanol production profits are at a high level, leading to increased supply, while demand remains weak, suggesting a bearish outlook for methanol prices in the medium term [3]