2025年12月29日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位上升，震荡偏弱 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场继续偏强运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2120-2200元/吨，广 东价格波动在2090-2130元/吨。外轮卸货速度顺畅，加之内地价格走弱导致港口与内地市场价差扩大，港口 货源倒流内地的量减量，导致港口甲醇库存大幅累积，但在预期利好对市场情绪的支撑下，价格仍表现坚挺。 内地甲醇价格延续疲软，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1870-1900元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间 2160-2200元/吨。内地甲醇市场延续疲弱走势，企业出货不畅致库存高企，降价去库成为主流操作。下游采 购意愿受市场观望情绪压制，难有增量支撑；与此同时期货盘面表现不佳，港口货源回流进一步冲击内地市 场，供需双弱的格局之下，市场行情持续探底。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气逐步落地，当前伊朗在途 货量仍充裕，12月进口大概率维持高位水平。本周下游冰醋酸装置恢复中，预计产能利用率有所走高，甲醇 制烯烃华东、西北个别企业延续降负荷状态，行业周均开工预期窄幅下降，甲醇下游整体需求预计较稳。甲 醇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend. The domestic methanol operating rate and production remain at a high level, while the international methanol operating rate drops to a low level. The import pressure will decrease in January next year, and the supply pressure will reduce. The operating rate of traditional downstream industries is at a low level, while the MTO operating rate is at a high level. Affected by winter seasonal factors, there is an expectation of a slight contraction in demand. During the cycle, the unloading is smooth, the import volume is high, and the port methanol inventory has rebounded to a high level. The methanol supply - demand situation is bearish. It is expected that methanol prices may mainly fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - demand Overview - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 40.67 tons, with an overall incremental expectation. The expected arrival volume of foreign ships remains high, the import apparent demand may remain weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [11]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of Chinese methanol is expected to be about 2.0635 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.86%, a decrease from the current period. The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 466,200 tons, including 388,200 tons of visible and 78,000 tons of invisible. The domestic trade is estimated to be around 25,000 - 30,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continue to reduce their loads, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to decline slightly. Among traditional demands, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are expected to decrease [11]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The import profit remains at a loss of - 17 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol production in Inner Mongolia remains stable at a loss of - 176 yuan/ton, and the downstream profit is at a large loss. The profit of MTO in East China remains at a loss of - 1,003 yuan/ton [11]. - **Coal Prices**: The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend [11][13]. 3.2 Strategies - **Unilateral and Options**: Operate bearishly within the range. For options, sell straddle options [13]. - **MA Unilateral Strategy (Medium - term)**: Short MA605. As of December 25, the price of MA605 is 2,148 yuan. The logic is that the import volume is high, the traditional demand is poor, and the port inventory is at a relatively high level. The operation suggestion is to operate bearishly [17]. - **PP - 3MA Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of December 25, the spread of the May contract is - 220 yuan. The logic is that PP will still be in the peak production period in 2026, and the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol. The new production capacity of methanol downstream is large, and the demand for methanol is resilient. However, recently, coal prices have fallen, and the short - term spread trend has high uncertainty. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or short on rallies [19]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of December 15, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,145 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the basis relative to the May contract is - 17 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: Last week (December 19 - 25, 2025), the production of Chinese methanol was 2,072,175 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% [83]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: From December 18 - 24, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 528,300 tons, including 498,300 tons of foreign ships (403,300 tons of visible and 95,000 tons of invisible) and 30,000 tons of domestic trade ships [91]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [94]. - **New Capacity in 2026**: In 2026, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [95][125]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [101]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins Operating Rate and Production**: The MTO operating rate is 88.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The loads of MTO enterprises in East and Northwest China have slightly decreased, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry continues to decline [105]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of traditional downstream industries are relatively low [109]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: Not specifically summarized in the text. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of December 24, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises are 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.16% [123]. 3.6 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 3.28% [131]. - **Port Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 15.89%. The port inventory has significantly increased, mainly in Jiangsu [134]. - **Port Floating Storage**: Not specifically summarized in the text.

蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气逐步落地，当前伊朗在途 货量仍充裕，12月进口大概率维持高位水平。本周下游冰醋酸故障装置预计恢复正常运行，预计产能利用率 有所走高，甲醇制烯烃周均开工预期上升，甲醇下游整体需求预计回升。甲醇港口库存高位，近期进口量预 期上升。预计甲醇价格近期震荡运行，05合约上方压力2220一线。 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化。 | 甲醇 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周环比变化率% | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差(江苏) | 元/吨 | 9.5 | 25.5 | -16.00 | -62.75 | 周度 | | 内地甲醇样本企业库存 | 万吨 | 39.11 | 36.21 | 2.90 | 8.01 | 周度 | | 港口甲醇库存 | 万吨 | 121.88 | 123.44 | -1.56 | -1.26 | 周度 | | 周产 ...

华联期货甲醇年报 需求承压，甲醇价格重心或继续下移 20251215 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 宏观与煤价：全球经济增速放缓，国内地产业仍不景气，经济增速下降；安全监管政策下，煤炭供应或将受 限，电煤需求持稳，化工煤需求增加，煤价持稳为主。 ◆ 观点:2025年，虽然下游新产能投放仍偏高 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the methanol market is basically in supply - demand balance. The port arrival volume has slightly increased, but the inventory fluctuation is limited. The downstream demand has recovered, with the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as olefins and dimethyl ether increasing, which drives up consumption. The coal price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the slight increase in logistics freight rates supports the market. It is expected that the methanol price will maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and changes in port inventory to operate according to the market rhythm. The market shows a benign interaction between supply and demand, with limited price fluctuation space, and structural opportunities can be moderately focused on [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Regional Spot Prices**: In the spot market, the current prices in Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Taicang, Guangdong, Shandong Linyi, and Henan are 2000, 1985, 1905, 2135, 2020 respectively. The previous values were 2000, 1978, 1905, 2000, 2145, 2000 respectively. The price changes are 0, 7, 0, -5, -10, 20 respectively [1]. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: For futures contracts MA2601 and MA2605, the current values are 2004 and 2138 respectively, the previous values are 2016 and 2153 respectively, and the price increases are -0.60% and -0.70% respectively [1]. Market Analysis - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The methanol market is in a state of basic supply - demand balance this week. Port arrivals have slightly increased, and downstream demand has recovered, with major downstream sectors increasing their operating rates [2]. - **Price Trend**: Coal prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the slight increase in logistics freight rates supports the market. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend [2].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market has experienced a significant decline since late October, with prices dropping sharply due to a persistent oversupply and weak demand, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [4][22]. Supply Side - Domestic methanol production has increased, with weekly output reaching 196.52 million tons as of November 6, driven by rising operating rates and the recovery of previously offline production facilities [8]. - The capacity utilization rate for methanol plants in China has risen to 87.79%, with limited new maintenance plans expected in the short term, indicating continued supply pressure [8][24]. - The import volume of methanol in October was 154.74 million tons, showing an increase from September, but still below expectations, with a forecast of 150-160 million tons for November [13]. Demand Side - Demand for methanol remains weak, with the overall operating rate of downstream industries at 46.5%, reflecting a decline in purchasing willingness [15]. - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) sector is particularly affected, with significant reductions in production and profitability due to falling prices of basic chemical raw materials [15][24]. Inventory - As of November 12, methanol port inventory in China reached 154.36 million tons, an increase of 5.65 million tons from the previous period, indicating ongoing accumulation despite stable demand [18][22]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the methanol market will continue to face a supply-demand imbalance, with prices likely to remain under pressure in the short term [24][25]. - The potential for a rebound in prices may depend on the reduction of supply from Iran and the overall inventory levels in the coming months [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is expected to face downward pressure on prices in the short term due to macroeconomic factors, but a rebound may occur once negative influences are exhausted [1] Supply Side Analysis - Methanol production rates are anticipated to decline in Q4, with a slight decrease in import volumes expected [1] - As of October 9, the national methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a slight decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a weekly production of approximately 1.87 million tons [3] - Factors such as industrial gas restrictions and environmental inspections are likely to significantly limit methanol production in the Southwest and North China regions, respectively, leading to a strong expectation of supply decline in Q4 [3] Demand Side Analysis - The operating rate for coal-to-olefins remains high at 88%, supported by the restart of facilities from companies like Shenhua and Ningxia Baofeng [6] - Traditional downstream industries for methanol show limited demand, with weak purchasing intentions from enterprises post-National Day [5] - As of October 9, the operating rates for downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether were relatively stable, with some showing slight increases compared to the previous year [5] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Domestic methanol inventory has reached historical highs, with port inventories at 1.273 million tons as of October 9, a year-on-year increase of 40.96% [4] - The increase in inventory is attributed to low domestic prices and high import volumes, with imports reaching a record high of 1.7598 million tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 44.08% [4] - Despite the high inventory levels, the overall profitability of production companies remains acceptable due to low costs, although some production routes are experiencing losses [3] Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to enter a destocking phase as supply declines and imports are projected to decrease [6] - However, recent significant drops in international crude oil prices may continue to exert downward pressure on methanol prices in the short term [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply - side pressure of methanol still exists. Coastal methanol prices rebounded slightly after the holiday due to sanctions, but the increase was limited. The port inventory remained high due to high imports and shipping disruptions during the holiday. The short - term replenishment power of methanol downstream before the holiday was insufficient, and the traditional downstream peak season was about to pass. The methanol price may fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and the supply - side drive should be focused on in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Difference of Futures and Spot - Methanol futures prices: In Taicang, it was 2240 yuan/ton on October 10, 2025, up 25 yuan/ton (1.13%) from the previous day; MA01 was 2307 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.74%); MA05 was 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); MA09 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.09%); in Shandong, it was 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.86%); in Guangdong, it was 2240 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.67%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, there was no change on October 10, 2025, compared with the previous day. The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 67 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. - Coal spot prices: The price of Bujiashike Q5500 was 510 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.49%); Datong Q5500 was 587.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.86%); Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 585 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, there was no change on October 10, 2025, compared with the previous day [1]. 2. Profit Situation - Coal - based methanol profit was 324.80 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 502.00 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (- 18.96%); Northwest MTO profit was - 95.40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 5.53%); East China MTO profit was - 652.07 yuan/ton, down 111.50 yuan/ton (- 20.63%) [1]. - Methanol downstream profits: Acetic acid profit was 588.30 yuan/ton, down 2.62 yuan/ton (- 0.44%); MTBE profit was 486.60 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (4.29%); formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 fell. It opened at 2321 yuan/ton, closed at 2290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 545,698 lots and an open interest of 999,972 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign information: The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, 7 of which often traveled to and from the Middle East. As of now, 11 ships have been sanctioned by the US State Department, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity of a certain Middle - Eastern country [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the methanol market maintained a narrow - range oscillation. Although the port inventory reached a new high and the structure weakened, the decline was small due to market expectations of supply - demand improvement in the peak season. After the National Day, the port inventory further increased, and combined with the decline of energy - chemical products such as crude oil, the market broke through the support level and declined. Currently, the real - world port situation remains weak, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply is under pressure with high domestic production and increasing imports, while the demand has weakened. However, the cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and the subsequent fundamentals may improve marginally, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: In September, the domestic methanol production was 809 million tons, a month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase. With the return of previously shut - down devices, the domestic operating rate has returned to a high level. The traditional demand in the peak season in September improved slightly, but the overall profit is poor, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The cost - end support is not obvious, the basis is stable at a low level, and the 1 - 5 spread has reached a new low. The methanol valuation is moderately high, and the port inventory has increased significantly, reaching 1.54 million tons, a year - on - year high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively healthy at 339,000 tons, a year - on - year low [11]. - **Market Logic**: The energy - chemical sector declined weakly, and the supply - demand situation of methanol itself remained weak, with the inland market weaker than the port market, leading to the market's downward breakthrough [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: In September, the prices of some methanol contracts and spot markets changed. For example, the 09 contract increased by 125 yuan/ton, the 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Among the domestic spot markets, the prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang increased, while those in Hebei and Shanxi decreased [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market showed an increase in open interest and a decline in price [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of raw materials such as IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and动力煤 (thermal coal) fluctuated [33][35][37]. - **Production Profit**: The coal - to - methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia and other places showed a downward trend from a high level, and the MTO profit also decreased [11]. - **Inventory Situation**: The port inventory is at a historical high, while the factory inventory is at a year - on - year low [44][46]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: New methanol production capacities are being put into operation, with a total of 7.45 million tons of new capacity from several enterprises in the northwest region expected to be gradually put into production from 2025 [55]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly production have returned to high levels, and the overseas methanol operating rate also shows certain trends [57][58][60]. - **Imports**: The import volume and arrival volume have increased, and the import volume from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia shows different trends [64][67][69]. - **Price Spreads**: There are various price spreads, including international price spreads and domestic regional price spreads, which reflect the market's supply - demand relationship and cost differences [76][79]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: The consumption and end - of - period inventory of methanol show certain trends over time [86]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: The olefin operating rate and the operating rate of MTO in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reached high levels, but the profit of MTO has declined. The production profits of different PP production processes also show different trends [88][90][97]. - **Downstream Products**: The operating rates and profits of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and MTBE show different trends [109][112][114]. 3.6 Option - related - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: The option trading volume and open interest of methanol show certain characteristics, and the PCR of option open interest and trading volume also has corresponding values [121]. - **Option Volatility**: The historical volatility and implied volatility of methanol options show certain trends [123]. 3.7 Industrial Structure Diagram - **Industrial Chain Diagram**: The methanol industrial chain and research framework analysis mind - map are presented, showing the overall structure and analysis framework of the methanol industry [126][128].

Group 1 - The methanol market is experiencing differentiated changes in supply and demand, with port-side social inventory accumulating, which suppresses prices [1] - Domestic methanol enterprises are gradually restarting their production facilities, leading to a recovery in supply capacity [1] - There are positive signs on the demand side, with an expected increase in external procurement of olefins, providing support for the market [1] Group 2 - After a previous price increase, market transactions show signs of fatigue, with buyers' willingness to accept cargo decreasing, leading to a high-level price fluctuation phase [1] - Future attention should be paid to the procurement intensity of olefins and the pace of inventory reduction, which will impact the market [1] - The interconnection effects between the domestic and port markets, including inventory transfer and price transmission, will influence regional market performance [1] Group 3 - The macroeconomic logic post-rollover of contracts will have a significant impact on forward contracts, necessitating caution regarding the risk of further price pressure under a relaxed supply-demand scenario [1]