1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a sideways movement, with limited upside and downside potential. Macro - level factors, such as the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the US, are being closely monitored, and no clear conclusion can be drawn. Fundamentally, the methanol port inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and there are expectations of the resumption of methanol plants in Iran, resulting in a somewhat bearish fundamental outlook [2][4]. - In terms of valuation, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of a negative feedback from coastal MTO plants will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan, which is gradually stabilizing around 1950 - 2000 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower end of the methanol valuation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - From January 30 to February 5, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,061,085 tons, an increase of 23,350 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 92.26%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15%. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.073 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 92.79%, higher than the current period. The planned resumption of production capacity next week exceeds the capacity involved in maintenance and production cuts, which may lead to an increase in capacity utilization and production [4]. Demand - **Olefins**: The load of previously restarted olefin plants is gradually increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue rising. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin and Chongqing Wanshengxin plants are expected to shut down next week, with a projected supply reduction and a possible decline in overall capacity utilization. For glacial acetic acid, the faulty plants are gradually recovering this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly next week. For formaldehyde, plants such as Binzhou Hengyun, Gushi Huanyu, Li'eryan, and Guangxi Luqiao are expected to undergo maintenance, and plants like Jinyimeng may further reduce their loads, so the supply is expected to continue to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clearly defined shutdown plants in the next period, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate may increase slightly compared to this week. Attention should be paid to the situation of plants with load reduction and the impact of high liquid chlorine prices on methane chloride production plants [4]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on February 4, 2026, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 368,300 tons, a decrease of 55,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 13.16%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 287,100 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 8.05%. - As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 1.411 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 4.15%. The methanol port inventory decreased this week, with 127,300 tons of visible foreign vessel discharges recorded during the period. The terminal rigid demand in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas remained stable, the提货 volume of the mainstream social warehouses was average, and the inventory decreased due to the reduction in discharges. The inventory at the South China ports increased. In the Guangdong area, there were a small number of imported and domestic vessels arriving this week, the提货 volume of the mainstream warehouses was average, and the inventory did not change much. In the Fujian area, imported cargo continued to be replenished. The提货 volume was stable due to rigid demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it was still unable to offset the increase in supply, resulting in an inventory increase [4]. 3.2 Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: In the short term, methanol is expected to move sideways, with resistance at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: The 5 - 9 spread may show a positive spread pattern. - **Inter - commodity spread trading**: The spread between MA and PP is in a sideways pattern [4].

Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices have shown a strong performance since the New Year, driven by geopolitical disturbances in Iran leading to reduced imports, although downstream MTO profit compression limits price increases [1][5]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic supply remains high due to sustained operating rates of coal-based methanol plants, while natural gas-based plants are experiencing seasonal shutdowns, leading to a temporary reduction in supply [2]. - Overseas supply has significantly decreased, particularly due to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants since late November, resulting in a continuous decline in overseas operating rates [2]. - Currently, only a few Iranian methanol plants are operational, with daily production at low levels, and a notable decrease in Iranian shipments since December, indicating a significant reduction in domestic imports expected in Q1 [2]. Group 2: Demand Trends - Demand is currently weak, primarily due to traditional demand being in the off-season and profit compression in olefins leading to expected shutdowns of some facilities [3]. - Although the overall operating rate remains relatively high, terminal demand is weak, resulting in low inventory replenishment willingness among downstream players [3]. - The reduction in olefin demand, which accounts for over half of methanol demand, is expected to significantly limit methanol price increases [3]. Group 3: Inventory Changes - Recent domestic methanol inventory shows divergence, with port inventories gradually decreasing while inland inventories are accumulating [4]. - Port inventories have started to decline since December, primarily due to reduced imports and increased replenishment by olefin companies post-holiday [4]. - Inland inventory pressures have emerged due to high domestic production levels and declining traditional demand, leading to a gradual accumulation of inventory [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term methanol prices are expected to remain strong, primarily due to market speculation regarding geopolitical factors affecting imports, although downstream demand reduction may suppress price increases [5]. - The majority of Iranian methanol plants are currently shut down, maintaining low daily production, with expectations of a significant reduction in domestic imports in Q1 [5]. - The market will closely monitor further developments in geopolitical situations and the dynamics of coastal MTO facilities, with methanol prices anticipated to maintain a strong oscillating trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a pattern where port prices are relatively strong while inland prices are weak The supply of methanol is abundant, and port inventories are rising from a high level It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly in the near - term, with the 05 contract facing resistance at the 2215 level [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Section Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the port methanol market continued to be strong, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2090 - 2130 yuan/ton Inland methanol prices were weak, with prices in Ordos, the main production area, ranging from 1870 - 1900 yuan/ton and downstream Dongying's receiving price from 2160 - 2200 yuan/ton [1] - The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor The domestic methanol operating rate is expected to remain high, and seasonal gas restrictions in the Middle East are gradually taking effect The on - the - way cargo volume from Iran is still abundant, and imports in December are likely to remain at a high level The downstream demand for methanol is expected to be relatively stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The basis in Jiangsu decreased by 268% week - on - week, inland methanol sample enterprise inventories increased by 3.3%, port methanol inventories increased by 15.89%, weekly production increased by 0.79%, coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 18.70%, coking - oven - gas - to - methanol profit in North China decreased by 13.02%, natural - gas - to - methanol profit in Southwest China remained unchanged, downstream acetic acid operating rate increased by 1.41%, and downstream olefin production operating rate decreased by 0.35% [3] Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the port methanol market continued to be strong, with Jiangsu prices fluctuating between 2120 - 2200 yuan/ton [6] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 91.24%, a 0.8% week - on - week increase The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia decreased by 18.70%, the average weekly profit of coking - oven - gas - to - methanol in Hebei decreased by 13.02%, and the average weekly profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China remained unchanged [7] Demand Situation Analysis - As of December 25, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 69.13%, a 0.97 - percentage - point decrease from last week The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid increased due to some plants' restarts and load adjustments [9] Inventory Analysis - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 141.25 tons, a 19.37 - ton week - on - week increase and a 47.40% year - on - year increase [11] Position Analysis - As of December 26, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in methanol futures decreased by 21,011 to 649,496, and the short - position volume decreased by 20,164 to 796,088 The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend. The domestic methanol operating rate and production remain at a high level, while the international methanol operating rate drops to a low level. The import pressure will decrease in January next year, and the supply pressure will reduce. The operating rate of traditional downstream industries is at a low level, while the MTO operating rate is at a high level. Affected by winter seasonal factors, there is an expectation of a slight contraction in demand. During the cycle, the unloading is smooth, the import volume is high, and the port methanol inventory has rebounded to a high level. The methanol supply - demand situation is bearish. It is expected that methanol prices may mainly fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - demand Overview - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 40.67 tons, with an overall incremental expectation. The expected arrival volume of foreign ships remains high, the import apparent demand may remain weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [11]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of Chinese methanol is expected to be about 2.0635 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.86%, a decrease from the current period. The estimated arrival plan of methanol import samples is 466,200 tons, including 388,200 tons of visible and 78,000 tons of invisible. The domestic trade is estimated to be around 25,000 - 30,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continue to reduce their loads, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to decline slightly. Among traditional demands, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are expected to decrease [11]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The import profit remains at a loss of - 17 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol production in Inner Mongolia remains stable at a loss of - 176 yuan/ton, and the downstream profit is at a large loss. The profit of MTO in East China remains at a loss of - 1,003 yuan/ton [11]. - **Coal Prices**: The daily consumption of thermal power continues to be lower than the same period in previous years. The core contradiction between high inventory and weak demand continues to intensify, and coal prices show a downward trend [11][13]. 3.2 Strategies - **Unilateral and Options**: Operate bearishly within the range. For options, sell straddle options [13]. - **MA Unilateral Strategy (Medium - term)**: Short MA605. As of December 25, the price of MA605 is 2,148 yuan. The logic is that the import volume is high, the traditional demand is poor, and the port inventory is at a relatively high level. The operation suggestion is to operate bearishly [17]. - **PP - 3MA Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of December 25, the spread of the May contract is - 220 yuan. The logic is that PP will still be in the peak production period in 2026, and the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol. The new production capacity of methanol downstream is large, and the demand for methanol is resilient. However, recently, coal prices have fallen, and the short - term spread trend has high uncertainty. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or short on rallies [19]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of December 15, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,145 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the basis relative to the May contract is - 17 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: Last week (December 19 - 25, 2025), the production of Chinese methanol was 2,072,175 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% [83]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: From December 18 - 24, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 528,300 tons, including 498,300 tons of foreign ships (403,300 tons of visible and 95,000 tons of invisible) and 30,000 tons of domestic trade ships [91]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [94]. - **New Capacity in 2026**: In 2026, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [95][125]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [101]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins Operating Rate and Production**: The MTO operating rate is 88.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The loads of MTO enterprises in East and Northwest China have slightly decreased, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry continues to decline [105]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of traditional downstream industries are relatively low [109]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: Not specifically summarized in the text. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of December 24, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises are 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.16% [123]. 3.6 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 3.28% [131]. - **Port Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 15.89%. The port inventory has significantly increased, mainly in Jiangsu [134]. - **Port Floating Storage**: Not specifically summarized in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the port methanol market strengthened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2070 - 2190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2050 - 2130 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market was weak, with prices in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 1950 - 1973 yuan/ton. The downstream Dongying receiving price was between 2225 - 2230 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol enterprises' overall profits are poor. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. With the seasonal gas restriction in the Middle East, the on - the - way cargo volume in Iran is still abundant, and imports in December are likely to remain at a high level [1]. - This week, the faulty downstream glacial acetic acid units are expected to resume normal operation, with an expected increase in capacity utilization. The weekly average start - up of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise, and the overall downstream demand for methanol is expected to pick up [1]. - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the import volume is expected to increase in the near future. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 2220 level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Port methanol market strengthened last week due to slow port unloading, inventory reduction, and some holders' low - price selling reluctance. Inland market was weak because of seasonal freight increase and high downstream raw material inventory [1]. - In the future, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate, with the 05 contract facing upper pressure at 2220 [1]. 3.2 Factors to Watch - Methanol start - up changes and methanol port inventory changes [2] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The basis (Jiangsu) decreased by 62.75% week - on - week to 9.5 yuan/ton. The inland methanol sample enterprise inventory increased by 8.01% to 39.11 tons. The port methanol inventory decreased by 1.26% to 121.88 tons. The weekly output increased by 0.79% to 205.59 tons [3]. - The profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol increased by 14.1% to - 135.8 yuan/ton. The profit of North China coke - oven gas - to - methanol decreased by 10.58% to 169 yuan/ton. The profit of Southwest natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 320 yuan/ton [3]. - The downstream acetic acid start - up rate increased by 3.55% to 76.51%, while the downstream methanol - to - olefins start - up rate decreased by 1.34% to 88.99% [3]. 3.4 Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the port methanol market was range - bound, with prices in Jiangsu fluctuating from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton [7]. 3.5 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 90.52%, a 0.81% increase from the previous period [8]. - The weekly average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol (based on full cost) was - 135.80 yuan/ton, a 14.10% increase from the previous period. Based on cash - flow cost, the profit increased by 9.22% [8]. - The weekly average profit of Hebei coke - oven gas - to - methanol was 169.00 yuan/ton, a 10.58% decrease from the previous week. The weekly average profit of Southwest natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 320.00 yuan/ton [8]. 3.6 Demand Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70.10%, a 7.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. Most plants maintained their previous loads this week [10]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of downstream glacial acetic acid increased, although there were still frequent faults. Some plants had short - term outages, while some were not operating at full capacity [10]. 3.7 Inventory Analysis - As of December 17, the total sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 121.88 tons, a 1.56 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 13.8% increase compared to the same period last year [12]. 3.8 Position Analysis - As of December 19, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in methanol futures was 799,442, a decrease of 22,337. The short - position volume was 935,039, a decrease of 8,706. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the methanol market will maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the price center likely to continue moving downward. Although downstream new capacity is still being put into operation at a relatively high rate and methanol demand shows some resilience, the real - estate sector will still be in an adjustment phase, dragging down methanol demand. Meanwhile, domestic planned new methanol capacity is large, imports will remain at a relatively high level, and coal prices will stabilize at a low level. Methanol supply pressure is high, and the overall demand is under pressure [11]. - For trading strategies, short - selling on rallies is recommended, with a pressure level of 2250. For options, selling call options is advised [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Annual View and Strategy - **Macro and Coal Prices**: The global economic growth rate is slowing down, and the domestic real - estate industry is still in a slump. Coal supply may be restricted under safety supervision policies, thermal coal demand is flat, chemical coal demand increases, and coal prices will mainly remain stable [11]. - **View on Methanol Market**: In 2026, the methanol market will face high supply pressure and weak demand. The price center is likely to continue to decline. The recommended trading strategy is to go short on rallies, with a pressure level of 2250, and sell call options [11]. 3.2 Market Review and Technical Analysis - **Market Review**: In 2025, the methanol price showed a volatile downward trend. From January to June, new domestic methanol capacity was put into operation intensively, and high port inventory and a weak macro - environment led to a downward trend. From June to July, the price rebounded due to low port inventory and external events, and then fell back. From August to the present, a large increase in imports and high port inventory led to a continuous decline [25]. - **Technical Analysis**: The technical trend of methanol is weak, with a pressure level of 2250 and a support level of 1950 [30]. 3.3 Macro and Coal Prices - **Macro**: The global economic growth rate is expected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. China's economy shows strong resilience, with an expected growth rate of 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. China's foreign trade has maintained year - on - year growth for 10 consecutive months as of November [40]. - **Coal**: The raw coal production rate is low, and production is restricted. In the first half of 2025, raw coal production increased, but in the second half, it decreased year - on - year. Coal and lignite imports decreased by 10.9% year - on - year. Thermal coal demand decreased, while chemical coal demand increased. Coal prices may remain stable, with a downward trend in the first half of 2025 and a rebound in the second half [46][56]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price and Basis**: The Taicang methanol spot price has fallen to a five - year low, and the basis has fluctuated [62]. - **Domestic Spread and Freight**: Coastal methanol spot prices are weaker than inland prices due to high port inventory [65]. - **International Methanol and Natural Gas Prices**: International methanol prices mainly declined in 2025 [71]. - **Inter - contract Spread**: Recently, due to slow unloading, port inventory has decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread has rebounded from a low level [79]. - **Related Product Ratios**: The ratio of methanol to urea has remained at a relatively high level, and the ratio of methanol to liquefied petroleum gas decreased to a relatively low level in the fourth quarter [83]. 3.5 Industrial Chain Profits - **Import Profit and Trade Margin**: Import profit and the trade margin from Inner Mongolia to East China have fluctuated [88][90]. - **Coal - to - Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol production profit is at a five - year high [99]. - **Natural Gas and Coke Oven Gas - to - Methanol Production Profit**: Natural gas and coke oven gas - to - methanol production profit is at a five - year low [104]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Profit**: Methanol - to - olefin profit still shows a large - scale loss [112]. - **Traditional Downstream Profit**: Traditional downstream profits are poor and at a five - year low [116][121]. 3.6 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: From January to November 2025, China's methanol production was 9.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.1%, a 2% increase compared to the same period last year [130]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: From August to October 2025, methanol imports increased by 30% year - on - year [136]. - **New Capacity in 2025 and 2026**: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity was about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3%. In 2026, the planned new capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with an increase of about 7.3% [139][140]. 3.7 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption of Methanol**: From January to October 2025, methanol apparent consumption was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.67% [146]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Production**: The MTO operating rate is 90.2%, at a high level [150]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The traditional downstream operating rate is low [154][158]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: Downstream new capacity is being put into operation at a relatively high rate, and the corresponding methanol consumption is 10.52 million tons, indicating some resilience in methanol demand [173]. 3.8 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,800 tons, at a relatively low level and showing narrow fluctuations [179]. - **Port Inventory**: As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1.2344 million tons, remaining at a high level [182].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the methanol market is basically in supply - demand balance. The port arrival volume has slightly increased, but the inventory fluctuation is limited. The downstream demand has recovered, with the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as olefins and dimethyl ether increasing, which drives up consumption. The coal price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the slight increase in logistics freight rates supports the market. It is expected that the methanol price will maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and changes in port inventory to operate according to the market rhythm. The market shows a benign interaction between supply and demand, with limited price fluctuation space, and structural opportunities can be moderately focused on [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Regional Spot Prices**: In the spot market, the current prices in Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Taicang, Guangdong, Shandong Linyi, and Henan are 2000, 1985, 1905, 2135, 2020 respectively. The previous values were 2000, 1978, 1905, 2000, 2145, 2000 respectively. The price changes are 0, 7, 0, -5, -10, 20 respectively [1]. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: For futures contracts MA2601 and MA2605, the current values are 2004 and 2138 respectively, the previous values are 2016 and 2153 respectively, and the price increases are -0.60% and -0.70% respectively [1]. Market Analysis - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The methanol market is in a state of basic supply - demand balance this week. Port arrivals have slightly increased, and downstream demand has recovered, with major downstream sectors increasing their operating rates [2]. - **Price Trend**: Coal prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the slight increase in logistics freight rates supports the market. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend [2].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market has experienced a significant decline since late October, with prices dropping sharply due to a persistent oversupply and weak demand, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [4][22]. Supply Side - Domestic methanol production has increased, with weekly output reaching 196.52 million tons as of November 6, driven by rising operating rates and the recovery of previously offline production facilities [8]. - The capacity utilization rate for methanol plants in China has risen to 87.79%, with limited new maintenance plans expected in the short term, indicating continued supply pressure [8][24]. - The import volume of methanol in October was 154.74 million tons, showing an increase from September, but still below expectations, with a forecast of 150-160 million tons for November [13]. Demand Side - Demand for methanol remains weak, with the overall operating rate of downstream industries at 46.5%, reflecting a decline in purchasing willingness [15]. - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) sector is particularly affected, with significant reductions in production and profitability due to falling prices of basic chemical raw materials [15][24]. Inventory - As of November 12, methanol port inventory in China reached 154.36 million tons, an increase of 5.65 million tons from the previous period, indicating ongoing accumulation despite stable demand [18][22]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the methanol market will continue to face a supply-demand imbalance, with prices likely to remain under pressure in the short term [24][25]. - The potential for a rebound in prices may depend on the reduction of supply from Iran and the overall inventory levels in the coming months [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is expected to face downward pressure on prices in the short term due to macroeconomic factors, but a rebound may occur once negative influences are exhausted [1] Supply Side Analysis - Methanol production rates are anticipated to decline in Q4, with a slight decrease in import volumes expected [1] - As of October 9, the national methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a slight decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a weekly production of approximately 1.87 million tons [3] - Factors such as industrial gas restrictions and environmental inspections are likely to significantly limit methanol production in the Southwest and North China regions, respectively, leading to a strong expectation of supply decline in Q4 [3] Demand Side Analysis - The operating rate for coal-to-olefins remains high at 88%, supported by the restart of facilities from companies like Shenhua and Ningxia Baofeng [6] - Traditional downstream industries for methanol show limited demand, with weak purchasing intentions from enterprises post-National Day [5] - As of October 9, the operating rates for downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether were relatively stable, with some showing slight increases compared to the previous year [5] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Domestic methanol inventory has reached historical highs, with port inventories at 1.273 million tons as of October 9, a year-on-year increase of 40.96% [4] - The increase in inventory is attributed to low domestic prices and high import volumes, with imports reaching a record high of 1.7598 million tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 44.08% [4] - Despite the high inventory levels, the overall profitability of production companies remains acceptable due to low costs, although some production routes are experiencing losses [3] Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to enter a destocking phase as supply declines and imports are projected to decrease [6] - However, recent significant drops in international crude oil prices may continue to exert downward pressure on methanol prices in the short term [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply - side pressure of methanol still exists. Coastal methanol prices rebounded slightly after the holiday due to sanctions, but the increase was limited. The port inventory remained high due to high imports and shipping disruptions during the holiday. The short - term replenishment power of methanol downstream before the holiday was insufficient, and the traditional downstream peak season was about to pass. The methanol price may fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and the supply - side drive should be focused on in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Difference of Futures and Spot - Methanol futures prices: In Taicang, it was 2240 yuan/ton on October 10, 2025, up 25 yuan/ton (1.13%) from the previous day; MA01 was 2307 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.74%); MA05 was 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); MA09 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.09%); in Shandong, it was 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.86%); in Guangdong, it was 2240 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.67%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, there was no change on October 10, 2025, compared with the previous day. The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 67 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. - Coal spot prices: The price of Bujiashike Q5500 was 510 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.49%); Datong Q5500 was 587.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.86%); Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 585 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, there was no change on October 10, 2025, compared with the previous day [1]. 2. Profit Situation - Coal - based methanol profit was 324.80 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 502.00 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (- 18.96%); Northwest MTO profit was - 95.40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 5.53%); East China MTO profit was - 652.07 yuan/ton, down 111.50 yuan/ton (- 20.63%) [1]. - Methanol downstream profits: Acetic acid profit was 588.30 yuan/ton, down 2.62 yuan/ton (- 0.44%); MTBE profit was 486.60 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (4.29%); formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 fell. It opened at 2321 yuan/ton, closed at 2290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 545,698 lots and an open interest of 999,972 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign information: The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, 7 of which often traveled to and from the Middle East. As of now, 11 ships have been sanctioned by the US State Department, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity of a certain Middle - Eastern country [1].