| | | | | 投资询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【了C国贸期货 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 甲醇数据日报 | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/11/24 | | | | | 数据来源:钢联 | | | | | | 플 | | 内蒙古北线 陕西关中 太仓 | | | 广东 山东临沂 | | 河南 | | 现点 | 现值 | 2000 | 1985 | 1905 | I ਰੇਰੇ ਦੇ | 2135 | 2020 | | 货区 | 前值 | 2000 | 1978 | 1905 | 2000 | 2145 | 2000 | | 域 | 涨幅 | 0 | 7 | 0 | (5) | (10) | 20 | | 期 号 | | MA2601 MA2605 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 2004 | 2138 | | | | | | 货 纪 | 前值 | 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market has experienced a significant decline since late October, with prices dropping sharply due to a persistent oversupply and weak demand, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [4][22]. Supply Side - Domestic methanol production has increased, with weekly output reaching 196.52 million tons as of November 6, driven by rising operating rates and the recovery of previously offline production facilities [8]. - The capacity utilization rate for methanol plants in China has risen to 87.79%, with limited new maintenance plans expected in the short term, indicating continued supply pressure [8][24]. - The import volume of methanol in October was 154.74 million tons, showing an increase from September, but still below expectations, with a forecast of 150-160 million tons for November [13]. Demand Side - Demand for methanol remains weak, with the overall operating rate of downstream industries at 46.5%, reflecting a decline in purchasing willingness [15]. - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) sector is particularly affected, with significant reductions in production and profitability due to falling prices of basic chemical raw materials [15][24]. Inventory - As of November 12, methanol port inventory in China reached 154.36 million tons, an increase of 5.65 million tons from the previous period, indicating ongoing accumulation despite stable demand [18][22]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the methanol market will continue to face a supply-demand imbalance, with prices likely to remain under pressure in the short term [24][25]. - The potential for a rebound in prices may depend on the reduction of supply from Iran and the overall inventory levels in the coming months [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is expected to face downward pressure on prices in the short term due to macroeconomic factors, but a rebound may occur once negative influences are exhausted [1] Supply Side Analysis - Methanol production rates are anticipated to decline in Q4, with a slight decrease in import volumes expected [1] - As of October 9, the national methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a slight decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a weekly production of approximately 1.87 million tons [3] - Factors such as industrial gas restrictions and environmental inspections are likely to significantly limit methanol production in the Southwest and North China regions, respectively, leading to a strong expectation of supply decline in Q4 [3] Demand Side Analysis - The operating rate for coal-to-olefins remains high at 88%, supported by the restart of facilities from companies like Shenhua and Ningxia Baofeng [6] - Traditional downstream industries for methanol show limited demand, with weak purchasing intentions from enterprises post-National Day [5] - As of October 9, the operating rates for downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether were relatively stable, with some showing slight increases compared to the previous year [5] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Domestic methanol inventory has reached historical highs, with port inventories at 1.273 million tons as of October 9, a year-on-year increase of 40.96% [4] - The increase in inventory is attributed to low domestic prices and high import volumes, with imports reaching a record high of 1.7598 million tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 44.08% [4] - Despite the high inventory levels, the overall profitability of production companies remains acceptable due to low costs, although some production routes are experiencing losses [3] Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to enter a destocking phase as supply declines and imports are projected to decrease [6] - However, recent significant drops in international crude oil prices may continue to exert downward pressure on methanol prices in the short term [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply - side pressure of methanol still exists. Coastal methanol prices rebounded slightly after the holiday due to sanctions, but the increase was limited. The port inventory remained high due to high imports and shipping disruptions during the holiday. The short - term replenishment power of methanol downstream before the holiday was insufficient, and the traditional downstream peak season was about to pass. The methanol price may fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and the supply - side drive should be focused on in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Difference of Futures and Spot - Methanol futures prices: In Taicang, it was 2240 yuan/ton on October 10, 2025, up 25 yuan/ton (1.13%) from the previous day; MA01 was 2307 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.74%); MA05 was 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); MA09 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.09%); in Shandong, it was 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.86%); in Guangdong, it was 2240 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.67%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, there was no change on October 10, 2025, compared with the previous day. The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 67 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. - Coal spot prices: The price of Bujiashike Q5500 was 510 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.49%); Datong Q5500 was 587.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.86%); Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 585 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, there was no change on October 10, 2025, compared with the previous day [1]. 2. Profit Situation - Coal - based methanol profit was 324.80 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 502.00 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (- 18.96%); Northwest MTO profit was - 95.40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 5.53%); East China MTO profit was - 652.07 yuan/ton, down 111.50 yuan/ton (- 20.63%) [1]. - Methanol downstream profits: Acetic acid profit was 588.30 yuan/ton, down 2.62 yuan/ton (- 0.44%); MTBE profit was 486.60 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (4.29%); formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 fell. It opened at 2321 yuan/ton, closed at 2290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 545,698 lots and an open interest of 999,972 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign information: The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, 7 of which often traveled to and from the Middle East. As of now, 11 ships have been sanctioned by the US State Department, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity of a certain Middle - Eastern country [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the methanol market maintained a narrow - range oscillation. Although the port inventory reached a new high and the structure weakened, the decline was small due to market expectations of supply - demand improvement in the peak season. After the National Day, the port inventory further increased, and combined with the decline of energy - chemical products such as crude oil, the market broke through the support level and declined. Currently, the real - world port situation remains weak, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply is under pressure with high domestic production and increasing imports, while the demand has weakened. However, the cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and the subsequent fundamentals may improve marginally, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: In September, the domestic methanol production was 809 million tons, a month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase. With the return of previously shut - down devices, the domestic operating rate has returned to a high level. The traditional demand in the peak season in September improved slightly, but the overall profit is poor, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The cost - end support is not obvious, the basis is stable at a low level, and the 1 - 5 spread has reached a new low. The methanol valuation is moderately high, and the port inventory has increased significantly, reaching 1.54 million tons, a year - on - year high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively healthy at 339,000 tons, a year - on - year low [11]. - **Market Logic**: The energy - chemical sector declined weakly, and the supply - demand situation of methanol itself remained weak, with the inland market weaker than the port market, leading to the market's downward breakthrough [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: In September, the prices of some methanol contracts and spot markets changed. For example, the 09 contract increased by 125 yuan/ton, the 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Among the domestic spot markets, the prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang increased, while those in Hebei and Shanxi decreased [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market showed an increase in open interest and a decline in price [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of raw materials such as IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and动力煤 (thermal coal) fluctuated [33][35][37]. - **Production Profit**: The coal - to - methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia and other places showed a downward trend from a high level, and the MTO profit also decreased [11]. - **Inventory Situation**: The port inventory is at a historical high, while the factory inventory is at a year - on - year low [44][46]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: New methanol production capacities are being put into operation, with a total of 7.45 million tons of new capacity from several enterprises in the northwest region expected to be gradually put into production from 2025 [55]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly production have returned to high levels, and the overseas methanol operating rate also shows certain trends [57][58][60]. - **Imports**: The import volume and arrival volume have increased, and the import volume from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia shows different trends [64][67][69]. - **Price Spreads**: There are various price spreads, including international price spreads and domestic regional price spreads, which reflect the market's supply - demand relationship and cost differences [76][79]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: The consumption and end - of - period inventory of methanol show certain trends over time [86]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: The olefin operating rate and the operating rate of MTO in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reached high levels, but the profit of MTO has declined. The production profits of different PP production processes also show different trends [88][90][97]. - **Downstream Products**: The operating rates and profits of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and MTBE show different trends [109][112][114]. 3.6 Option - related - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: The option trading volume and open interest of methanol show certain characteristics, and the PCR of option open interest and trading volume also has corresponding values [121]. - **Option Volatility**: The historical volatility and implied volatility of methanol options show certain trends [123]. 3.7 Industrial Structure Diagram - **Industrial Chain Diagram**: The methanol industrial chain and research framework analysis mind - map are presented, showing the overall structure and analysis framework of the methanol industry [126][128].

Group 1 - The methanol market is experiencing differentiated changes in supply and demand, with port-side social inventory accumulating, which suppresses prices [1] - Domestic methanol enterprises are gradually restarting their production facilities, leading to a recovery in supply capacity [1] - There are positive signs on the demand side, with an expected increase in external procurement of olefins, providing support for the market [1] Group 2 - After a previous price increase, market transactions show signs of fatigue, with buyers' willingness to accept cargo decreasing, leading to a high-level price fluctuation phase [1] - Future attention should be paid to the procurement intensity of olefins and the pace of inventory reduction, which will impact the market [1] - The interconnection effects between the domestic and port markets, including inventory transfer and price transmission, will influence regional market performance [1] Group 3 - The macroeconomic logic post-rollover of contracts will have a significant impact on forward contracts, necessitating caution regarding the risk of further price pressure under a relaxed supply-demand scenario [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol price in many domestic regions increased slightly yesterday. The inventory of enterprises in the main production areas in the northwest is at a low level, the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices has increased, and the transaction price of enterprise auctions has risen. The positive sentiment in the futures market has driven smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, and some enterprises have stopped selling and supported prices, pushing up the spot price. The downstream is mainly on the sidelines, and the procurement has become more rational after the previous low - price replenishment. The market trend needs to pay attention to the downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday. - In the short term, the methanol price will fluctuate within a range. In the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price - The prices of most energy and chemical products remained stable on August 19 - 20, 2025, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas increased by 10 yuan to 4140 yuan, the price of international natural gas decreased by 0.09 to 10.43, and the price of MTBE decreased by 20 yuan to 4980 yuan. The price of methanol in many domestic regions increased slightly, with the price in Taicang rising by 20 yuan to 2290 yuan, and the price in Shandong rising by 10 yuan to 2290 yuan. [1] Supply - Domestic methanol production decreased by 360 to 270205, and the domestic operating rate decreased by 0.11 to 83.65, while the international operating rate remained unchanged at 71.67. The arrival quantity of imports remained unchanged at 38.84. [1] Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged, at 295573 and 1021800 respectively. [1] Demand - The order backlog remained unchanged at 219365. The operating rates of various downstream products of methanol remained stable, such as the MTO operating rate at 83.12, the dimethyl ether operating rate at 7.15, and the formaldehyde operating rate at 41.54. [1] Associated Product Prices - The prices of most associated products remained stable, with only MTBE showing a decrease of 20 yuan to 4980 yuan. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of domestic coking coal and coke prices and potential supply - side policies may boost market sentiment. Although the absolute value of port inventory is still low, production profit is good, domestic production and operating rate are still high, international methanol operating rate has rebounded to a high level, methanol imports have recovered, downstream profit is poor, downstream demand is under pressure, and inventory has increased. Therefore, methanol is likely to fluctuate. For single - side and option trading, the report suggests range - bound operations and selling straddle options [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory reached 35.69 tons this week, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons or 1.31%. Port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly [7]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol output is estimated to be around 191.93 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 85.17%. The import sample arrival plan is estimated at 32.60 tons, including 16.70 tons of visible and 15.90 tons of invisible imports, and domestic trade is estimated at 3.5 - 4.0 tons [7]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased. The start - up rate of dimethyl ether remained flat, that of acetic acid increased, while those of formaldehyde and chloride decreased [7]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The import profit showed an inversion of - 43 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 122 yuan/ton, while the downstream profit suffered large losses, with the profit loss of MTO in East China still being large at - 1131 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coal Price**: Some traders are bullish on the traditional coal - using peak season, but the port inventory is still high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, short MA509. For PP - 3MA, short the spread. In option trading, sell straddle options [7][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of July 10, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2390 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 10, the basis relative to the September contract was - 8 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: Last week (20250704 - 0710), China's methanol output was 1909928 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77148 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.89% [66]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 31.03 tons, including 26.42 tons of foreign vessels and 4.61 tons of domestic trade vessels [71]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity is about 860 tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Overseas, the new methanol capacity is expected to be 505 tons [73][74]. 3.4 Demand - side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to May, the apparent consumption of methanol was 4577 tons, an increase of 7.6% [78]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Output**: Last week, the MTO operating rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55% [82]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of different traditional downstream products showed different trends, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [83][86]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [90]. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of July 9, 2025, the sample enterprise's pending order volume was 22.12 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 8.29% [98]. - **New Downstream Capacity**: In 2025, the new downstream capacity of methanol is mainly concentrated in the olefin field, with an estimated new olefin capacity of 236 tons and a theoretical new methanol demand of 660 tons. For traditional downstream, the new capacity is mainly in acetic acid and MTBE, with a theoretical new methanol demand of 587 tons [100]. 3.5 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 35.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons or 3.14% [104]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 71.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 tons or 6.71% [107]. - **Port Floating Storage**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [110].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weakening oscillatory trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - On June 9, 2025, the prices of methanol in multiple regions increased slightly. The inventory of enterprises in the main production areas in the northwest was low, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, leading to higher auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up the spot prices. Downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after the previous low - price replenishment [1] Supply - Domestic methanol production increased by 200 to 285,678, and the domestic operating rate rose by 0.06 to 88.74. The international operating rate remained unchanged at 68.73 [1] Inventory - Both enterprise and port inventories remained unchanged at 354,950 and 522,960 respectively [1] Demand - The number of pending orders remained unchanged at 249,892 [1] Operating Rates of Related Products - The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, methyl chloride, MTBE, etc. remained unchanged. The operating rate of formaldehyde in Shandong decreased by 10 to 910 [1] Associated Product Prices - The prices of acetic acid and methane chloride decreased by 30 and 170 respectively, while the price of MTBE increased by 60 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures have shown a slight increase in price, with a weekly fluctuation of 2.49%, while inventory levels are rising both domestically and internationally [1][2]. Market Overview - As of June 5, methanol inventory at East China ports reached 292,600 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from May 29 [2]. - Domestic methanol production facilities operated at 74.52% capacity, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points from the previous week, but an increase of 5.09 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to U.S. tariff policies, and the market is entering a seasonal low demand period [3]. - Ningzheng Futures noted stable coal prices and high domestic methanol production expectations, with port inventories continuing to rise [3]. - The short-term price forecast for methanol futures suggests a range of 2,220 to 2,320 yuan per ton, with potential resistance at 2,290 yuan [3].