1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be in a sideways trend in the short - and medium - term, while showing a relatively strong performance intraday. It will run with an upward bias overall [1][5]. - The main factors driving the upward movement of methanol prices are the "hard contraction" of overseas supply, the reduction of domestic port methanol inventory, the strengthening of the spot market, and the intensification of geopolitical risks in the Middle East [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to move sideways, within a week [1]. - **Medium - term**: It is also expected to move sideways, from two weeks to one month [1]. - **Intraday**: It is expected to be relatively strong [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Supply**: Overseas supply has a "hard contraction", especially in Iran, a major source of imports, which is facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - **Inventory and Spot Market**: The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices, strengthening the basis, and boosting the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - **Geopolitical Risk**: The U.S. military aircraft carrier bypassed the Strait of Malacca and headed for the Middle East battlefield, and Iran issued tough statements, intensifying geopolitical risks in the Middle East and supporting the methanol market [5]. 3.3 Market Performance Forecast - On Wednesday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a stable sideways movement with a slight rebound. It is expected that on Thursday, domestic methanol futures will maintain a sideways and relatively strong trend [5].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with significant supply pressures and weak demand affecting prices [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Factors - Methanol production is expected to increase significantly in early November due to the resumption of operations at various facilities [1]. - The import logistics for methanol may see temporary relief following positive signals from the APEC meeting between the US and China, maintaining a high supply state domestically [1]. - Iranian gas restrictions are anticipated to be delayed, which may lead to continued operations in the region, contributing to a stable supply of methanol [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) industry's fundamentals are under pressure, with profits being significantly compressed, leading to a phase of trading price for volume, which limits the potential for methanol price increases [1]. - The market is currently facing a high inventory situation, with port stocks expected to continue accumulating, indicating a lack of effective support for prices [2]. Group 3: Macro Factors - Recent macroeconomic events, including the Fourth Plenary Session and the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan," have led to a weakening of macro drivers for the methanol market [1]. - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has also diminished, contributing to a broader volatility in the domestic commodity market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market shows mixed performance, with the main contract slightly increasing by 0.83% to 2314.00 CNY/ton, despite overall pressure from supply and inventory levels [1] Supply - According to Wenkang Futures, domestic production is expected to remain high due to a significant increase in operational rates as facilities return to service, maintaining good profit margins for domestic companies [1] - The import side is facing substantial supply pressure, with overall arrivals contributing to the high supply levels [1] Demand - Zhonghui Futures indicates a slight improvement in demand, particularly with the recovery of MTO external procurement facility loads, including the restart of Zhejiang Xingxing [1] - However, traditional downstream profits remain relatively low, leading to a sustained weak overall operational load [1] Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.5432 million tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period [1] - The East China region saw an increase of 47,800 tons, while South China experienced a rise of 3,200 tons in inventory levels [1] Market Outlook - According to Green Dahu Futures, the downstream performance of methanol is characterized by a lackluster peak season, with both port and production areas accumulating inventory post-holiday [1] - In August, imports reached 1.7598 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 59% [1] - The decline in crude oil prices has led to weak performance in olefins, causing methanol prices to continue to trend downward, with a reference range of 2250-2350 CNY/ton [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5] - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2601, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, and the reference view is weakly running. The core logic is that the bullish expectations have been fulfilled, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend of methanol [1] Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory - weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is weakly running. After the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract on Wednesday night maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.67% to 2364 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Thursday [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2601, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, with an overall view of weak operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The current supply - demand structure of methanol is weak. With coal futures prices oscillating, the domestic methanol market was suppressed by bearish fundamentals on the night of last Friday. The methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.17% to 2374 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Monday [5].

Supply Analysis - The impact of anti-involution policies on methanol production is expected to be limited, as older production facilities constitute a small proportion, making significant reductions in methanol supply unlikely [1] - Domestic coal-based methanol supply is gradually returning [1] Demand Analysis - Traditional demand remains relatively stable, with a trend of initial strength followed by a decline in the domestic market, leading to inventory reduction [1] - There are operational shutdowns in the olefin sector affecting demand [1] Inventory Status - As of August 13, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.0218 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous period [1] - The East China region saw an inventory increase of 45,000 tons, while South China experienced an increase of 51,300 tons [1] Market Outlook - Current methanol valuations are considered high, with weak downstream demand putting pressure on prices [1] - The price is significantly influenced by overall commodity sentiment, and a cautious approach is recommended [1]

Market Overview - The main contract for methanol futures, MA2509, closed at 2401 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.58% compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - As of July 3, methanol inventory at East China ports was 342,700 tons, down from 366,000 tons on June 26, a decrease of 23,300 tons [2] - Domestic methanol prices experienced a rebound after an overall decline, with the transaction focus decreasing month-on-month. The average price in the Taicang region was 2612 CNY/ton, down 3.47% from the previous week. In Inner Mongolia, the weekly average price was 1976 CNY/ton, a decline of 1.5% from the previous week [2] - The operating load of MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) facilities in East China has been continuously declining, with several plants operating below capacity or in a shutdown state [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Wenkang Futures, increased maintenance in upstream operations and high operating rates are leading to a decline in enterprise profits. The market is reflecting the end of disturbances from overseas supply, with reduced volatility expected. The demand side is weak, and methanol prices are anticipated to have limited upward potential in the current weak supply-demand environment [3] - Donghai Futures noted that domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals at ports are providing some support for spot prices before maintenance is implemented. However, with international operating rates rebounding significantly and import expectations rising, the supply-demand outlook is deteriorating. Current policy disturbances may lead to slight rebounds, but the potential for significant upward movement is limited, suggesting a focus on short-selling opportunities [3]