国泰君安期货分析称，供应方面，进入11月上旬，伴随装置集中复产，甲醇日产环比10月下旬上升明 显。进口方面，伴随中美在韩国APEC会议上的领导人会晤释放积极信号，甲醇后续进口物流矛盾或得 到阶段性缓解，在海外开工率仍偏高格局下，甲醇进口货源短期仍充裕。因此短期甲醇仍维持国内高供 应状态。需求端，MTO行业基本面压力增加，行业利润压缩明显，目前处于以价换量阶段，抑制甲醇 上涨空间。因此甲醇目前基本面驱动向下，库存压力下，生产利润被压缩。宏观方面，四中全会以 及"十五五"规划落地，中美贸易磋商阶段性落地，10月底的美联储降息同样落地，宏观事件短期对权益 类市场阶段性利多出尽。因此，宏观驱动减弱，产业链基本面偏弱背景下，甲醇弱势运行。后续主要关 注，港口货源回流内地是否会对价格形成阶段性支撑。 南华期货（603093）表示，本周甲醇加速下跌，主要原因在于伊朗限气预期再次延期，空头继续增仓， 变盘点在于伊朗愿意接受减点，表明开工或仍将继续，此外从伊朗温度来看，今年要比往年同期平均温 度高，伊朗限气或延迟到11月下。基本面来看，10月伊朗发运86w附近，11月发运8w，发运略超预期， 此外伊朗重启库存使用，11月发货未 ...

周五（10月10日）夜盘，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，甲醇期货盘面表现偏强，主力合约小幅 收涨0.83%，报2314.00元/吨。 对于后市走势，格林大华期货表示，甲醇下游表现为旺季不旺，节后港口和产区均累库。8月进口量 175.98万吨，环比增加59%。原油价格下跌带动烯烃弱势运行，甲醇价格重心继续下移，参考区间2250- 2350。 供应方面，五矿期货指出，随着装置集中回归国内开工大幅走高，国内企业生产利润依旧较好，供应将 维持高位。进口端到港，整体供应压力较大。 需求方面，中辉期货分析称，需求端有所好转，其中MTO外采装置负荷回升，浙江兴兴重启；传统下 游利润相对较低，综合加权开工负荷维持偏弱。 库存方面，截至2025年10月9日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在154.32万吨，较上一期数据增加5.10万吨。其 中，华东地区累库，库存增加4.78万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加0.32万吨。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5] - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2601, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, and the reference view is weakly running. The core logic is that the bullish expectations have been fulfilled, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend of methanol [1] Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory - weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is weakly running. After the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract on Wednesday night maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.67% to 2364 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Thursday [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2601, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, with an overall view of weak operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The current supply - demand structure of methanol is weak. With coal futures prices oscillating, the domestic methanol market was suppressed by bearish fundamentals on the night of last Friday. The methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.17% to 2374 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Monday [5].

Supply Analysis - The impact of anti-involution policies on methanol production is expected to be limited, as older production facilities constitute a small proportion, making significant reductions in methanol supply unlikely [1] - Domestic coal-based methanol supply is gradually returning [1] Demand Analysis - Traditional demand remains relatively stable, with a trend of initial strength followed by a decline in the domestic market, leading to inventory reduction [1] - There are operational shutdowns in the olefin sector affecting demand [1] Inventory Status - As of August 13, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.0218 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous period [1] - The East China region saw an inventory increase of 45,000 tons, while South China experienced an increase of 51,300 tons [1] Market Outlook - Current methanol valuations are considered high, with weak downstream demand putting pressure on prices [1] - The price is significantly influenced by overall commodity sentiment, and a cautious approach is recommended [1]

Market Overview - The main contract for methanol futures, MA2509, closed at 2401 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.58% compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - As of July 3, methanol inventory at East China ports was 342,700 tons, down from 366,000 tons on June 26, a decrease of 23,300 tons [2] - Domestic methanol prices experienced a rebound after an overall decline, with the transaction focus decreasing month-on-month. The average price in the Taicang region was 2612 CNY/ton, down 3.47% from the previous week. In Inner Mongolia, the weekly average price was 1976 CNY/ton, a decline of 1.5% from the previous week [2] - The operating load of MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) facilities in East China has been continuously declining, with several plants operating below capacity or in a shutdown state [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Wenkang Futures, increased maintenance in upstream operations and high operating rates are leading to a decline in enterprise profits. The market is reflecting the end of disturbances from overseas supply, with reduced volatility expected. The demand side is weak, and methanol prices are anticipated to have limited upward potential in the current weak supply-demand environment [3] - Donghai Futures noted that domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals at ports are providing some support for spot prices before maintenance is implemented. However, with international operating rates rebounding significantly and import expectations rising, the supply-demand outlook is deteriorating. Current policy disturbances may lead to slight rebounds, but the potential for significant upward movement is limited, suggesting a focus on short-selling opportunities [3]