期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-20 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：目前煤制甲醇装置亏损程度持续扩大，供应端收缩预期增强。同时临近冬季取暖需求旺 季，西南天然气制甲醇面临限气预期。当下国内港口库存依然高企，外部进口维持高位，需求延续 偏弱节奏。随着供应端预期出现松动，未来国内甲醇期货继续下探空间或有限。本周三夜盘，国内 甲醇期货 2601 合约维持震荡偏弱的走势，期价略微收低。预计本周四国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维 持震荡偏弱的走势。 < END > 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and a weak intraday trend [1][5]. - Due to the high domestic methanol operating rate, high weekly output, increasing external import pressure, and high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China, the methanol 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures is expected to maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][5]. Driving Logic - The U.S. Senate's agreement to end the federal government "shutdown" has improved market sentiment and boosted investors' risk appetite [5]. - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, external import pressure continues to increase, and methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5]. - The methanol 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend on Thursday night, and is expected to maintain a weak trend on Friday [5].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-13 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国国会参议院已就结束联邦政府"停摆"达成一致，市场乐观情绪有所回暖，提振 投资者风险偏好。当前国内甲醇开工率和周度产量依然维持偏高水平，外部进口压力持续增大，华 东和华南港口甲醇库存居高不下。本 ...

宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国国会参议院已就结束联邦政府"停摆"达成一致，市场乐观情绪有所回暖，提振 投资者风险偏好。当前国内甲醇开工率和周度产量依然维持偏高水平，外部进口压力持续增大，华 东和华南港口甲醇库存居高不下。本 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 < END > 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国国会参议院已就结束 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weakening trend in the short - term and a fluctuating trend in the medium - term. It is likely to maintain a weakening trend on Friday, November 8, 2025 [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall reference view of weakening operation. The core logic is that weak supply - demand conditions dominate, leading to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1] 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - After the positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade tariffs, the macro - driving force has weakened, and there has been profit - taking in the market. Currently, domestic methanol production and imports are high, port inventories are high, downstream demand is gradually improving but olefin profit is poor, and weak demand persists. On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.28% at 2122 yuan/ton but lacked the momentum to continue rising [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak. The weak supply - demand situation dominates the market [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.57% to 2108 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Thursday, the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend [5]. Core Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the overall results in economic and trade tariffs were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon in the market [5]. - Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5]. - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term fluctuations, medium - term weak fluctuations, and weak fluctuations throughout the day [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Core Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was profit - taking in the market [5]. - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China remains high [5]. - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the current situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weakly fluctuating trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.33% to 2,114 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Wednesday, the contract will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation and weakening, and an intraday outlook of oscillation and weakening [1][5] - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment fades, the driving force of macro - factors weakens, and there is a profit - taking phenomenon in the market [5] - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5] - On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.16% to 2,207 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Friday, the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The methanol 2601 contract shows an oscillating trend [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2601 contract shows an oscillating and weakening trend [1] - Intraday: The methanol 2601 contract shows an oscillating and weakening trend [1][5] Driving Logic - Macro - factor: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment fades, the driving force of macro - factors weakens, leading to profit - taking in the market [5] - Supply - side: The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase, resulting in high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China [5] - Demand - side: Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5] Market Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.16% to 2,207 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation and weakness, and an intraday outlook of oscillation and strength [1][5] - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Methanol Market Situation - Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase, with the peak import volume for the year already reached, leading to high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China before the festival [5] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the profit of the olefin market is not good, and the situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5] 3.2 Market Trend and Price - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.45% to 2255 yuan/ton [5] - The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Seoul, South Korea may convey positive expectations to the market, supporting the methanol market [5]