投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需压制，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。在宏观因子逐渐减弱以后，偏弱供需因素重新主导甲醇盘面。本 周四夜盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约维持震荡偏弱的走势，期价略微收低 0.68%至 2341 元/吨。预计本 周五国内甲醇期货 2 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着近日美联储 9 月降息预期兑现以后，本周一夜盘国内甲醇期 货 2601 合约维持震荡偏弱的走势，期价略微收低 0.17%至 2349 元/吨。预计本 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the methanol market is experiencing weak fluctuations due to a significant supply pressure and a seasonal downturn in downstream demand [5] - The domestic methanol futures contract (2601) is expected to maintain a weak fluctuation trend, with a recent price of 2356 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Sections Short-term and Medium-term Outlook - The short-term outlook for methanol (2601) is characterized as "fluctuating" while the medium-term outlook is also "fluctuating" [5] - The daily perspective is noted as "weak fluctuation," indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [5] Price Dynamics - The report highlights that the supply-demand structure for methanol is weak, leading to a downward pressure on price levels [5] - The report mentions a significant increase in port inventories, which further exacerbates the supply pressure [5] Market Conditions - The report notes that the recent expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have been realized, contributing to the stabilization of the domestic methanol futures market [5] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued weak performance in the methanol sector [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着近日美联储 9 月降息预期兑现以后，本周四夜盘国内甲醇期 货 2601 合约维持震荡偏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5] - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2601, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, and the reference view is weakly running. The core logic is that the bullish expectations have been fulfilled, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend of methanol [1] Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory - weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is weakly running. After the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract on Wednesday night maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.67% to 2364 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Thursday [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。在国内煤炭期货价格大幅上涨以及宏观情绪改善的提振下，本周 一夜盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约迎来企稳反弹的走势，期价略微收涨 0.80%至 240 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation on the strong side" respectively. It is predicted that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Price and Trend** - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.04% to 2404 yuan/ton on Wednesday night [5]. - **Supply and Demand Situation** - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - demand structure is weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. - **Driving Factors** - With the slight rebound of domestic coal futures prices, there are differences between bulls and bears in the domestic methanol market, resulting in the oscillating and stabilizing trend of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract on Wednesday night [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to operate weakly, showing a volatile and weak trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday. The current supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. The sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices on Wednesday night led to the volatile and weak trend of the methanol futures 2601 contract, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Time Cycle and View Summary - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation. The core logic is the sharp decline in coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand situation of methanol [1]. Price and Driving Logic - The methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly lower by 0.38% to 2378 yuan/ton on Wednesday night, and it is difficult for the price to continue rising. The large supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad, the off - season of downstream demand, and the sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices on Wednesday night are the main driving factors for the weak trend [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a short - term, medium - term, and intraday trend of oscillation, with an intraday bias towards weak oscillation [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Aspects Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly rebounded in the night session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.68% to 2375 yuan/ton, but facing large upward pressure and expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [5] Market Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the methanol market returns to being dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, causing the price center to face a downward shift. Also, it's affected by the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors [5] Time - Period Definition and Classification - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For intraday views, a decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and a rise of more than 1% is a rise. The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating are only for intraday views, not for short - term and medium - term views [1][3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to operate weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively [1][5] - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. With large supply pressure and off - season demand, the price center is likely to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Trends - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weakly oscillatory trend, with the futures price closing down 0.92% to 2361 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend on Thursday [5] Market Driving Factors - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand structure [5] - The decline of domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors contribute to the weak trend of methanol futures [5]