甲醇2601期货合约
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宝城期货甲醇早报-20251120
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 01:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and a weak intraday trend. The overall situation is dominated by weak supply and demand, leading to an oscillating and weak trend [1][5] - With the expected loosening of the supply side, the future downward space of domestic methanol futures may be limited [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and weak trend, with the futures price slightly lower. It is expected that on Thursday, it may continue this oscillating and weak trend [5] Supply - side Factors - The loss of coal - to - methanol plants is continuously expanding, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. Near the peak winter heating demand season, there is an expectation of gas restrictions for southwest natural - gas - to - methanol production [5] Demand - side and Inventory Factors - Domestic port inventories remain high, external imports are at a high level, and demand continues the weak rhythm [5]
宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-14-20251114
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 02:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and a weak intraday trend [1][5]. - Due to the high domestic methanol operating rate, high weekly output, increasing external import pressure, and high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China, the methanol 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures is expected to maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][5]. Driving Logic - The U.S. Senate's agreement to end the federal government "shutdown" has improved market sentiment and boosted investors' risk appetite [5]. - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, external import pressure continues to increase, and methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5]. - The methanol 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend on Thursday night, and is expected to maintain a weak trend on Friday [5].
宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-13-20251113
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and a weak intraday trend. The weak supply - demand situation dominates, and the contract will oscillate weakly. Although the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillating and stable trend on Wednesday night, with the price slightly rising 0.24% to 2107 yuan/ton, it is expected to maintain a weak trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Price Trend and View - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract was oscillating and stable on Wednesday night, with the price slightly rising 0.24% to 2107 yuan/ton, and is expected to be weak on Thursday [5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", and market optimism has recovered, boosting investors' risk appetite. However, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at a relatively high level, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation [5].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20251112
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 01:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to operate weakly. In the short - term, it is weak; in the medium - term, it is oscillating; and on the day, it is also weak [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time Cycle and View Definitions - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakish, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongish, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. The strongish/weakish description is only for the intraday view [1][2][3] 3.2 Price and Market Analysis of Methanol - The recent agreement in the US Senate to end the federal government "shutdown" has improved market sentiment and investors' risk appetite. Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase. The methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract oscillated, with the futures price slightly rising 0.00% to 2094 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract will maintain a weak trend on Wednesday [5]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20251111
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 01:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weak - running trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term [1][5]. - It is predicted that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - cycle and Viewpoint Summary - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation. The core logic is that the weak supply - demand situation dominates, leading to a weak and volatile methanol market [1]. 3.2 Price and Market Logic Summary - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile consolidation trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the futures price slightly rising 0.00% to 2098 yuan/ton. The recent agreement in the US Senate to end the federal government "shutdown" has improved market sentiment and risk appetite. However, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20251107
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 02:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weakening trend in the short - term and a fluctuating trend in the medium - term. It is likely to maintain a weakening trend on Friday, November 8, 2025 [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall reference view of weakening operation. The core logic is that weak supply - demand conditions dominate, leading to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1] 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - After the positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade tariffs, the macro - driving force has weakened, and there has been profit - taking in the market. Currently, domestic methanol production and imports are high, port inventories are high, downstream demand is gradually improving but olefin profit is poor, and weak demand persists. On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.28% at 2122 yuan/ton but lacked the momentum to continue rising [5]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20251106
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 01:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak. The weak supply - demand situation dominates the market [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.57% to 2108 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Thursday, the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend [5]. Core Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the overall results in economic and trade tariffs were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon in the market [5]. - Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5]. - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20251105
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:07
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term fluctuations, medium - term weak fluctuations, and weak fluctuations throughout the day [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Core Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was profit - taking in the market [5]. - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China remains high [5]. - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the current situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weakly fluctuating trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.33% to 2,114 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Wednesday, the contract will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [5].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20251031
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 05:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation and weakening, and an intraday outlook of oscillation and weakening [1][5] - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment fades, the driving force of macro - factors weakens, and there is a profit - taking phenomenon in the market [5] - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5] - On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.16% to 2,207 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Friday, the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The methanol 2601 contract shows an oscillating trend [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2601 contract shows an oscillating and weakening trend [1] - Intraday: The methanol 2601 contract shows an oscillating and weakening trend [1][5] Driving Logic - Macro - factor: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment fades, the driving force of macro - factors weakens, leading to profit - taking in the market [5] - Supply - side: The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase, resulting in high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China [5] - Demand - side: Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5] Market Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.16% to 2,207 yuan/ton [5]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20251030
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 02:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation and weakness, and an intraday outlook of oscillation and strength [1][5] - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Methanol Market Situation - Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase, with the peak import volume for the year already reached, leading to high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China before the festival [5] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the profit of the olefin market is not good, and the situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5] 3.2 Market Trend and Price - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.45% to 2255 yuan/ton [5] - The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Seoul, South Korea may convey positive expectations to the market, supporting the methanol market [5]