1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the methanol market is complex, with high - level stable domestic supply, low - level external market operation, and strong expectations of domestic MTO shutdown. However, the unstable situation in the Middle East provides relatively strong support for methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The futures market declined, closing at 2239 (- 45/-1.97%). In the spot market, production areas had different quotes: Inner Mongolia南线 was 1870 yuan/ton,北线 was 1820 yuan/ton, etc.; consumption areas also had various prices: Lunan was 2160 yuan/ton, etc.; and ports like Taicang were 2240 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20260110 - 20260116), the international methanol (excluding China) output was 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1190 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 59.41%, a decline of 0.08% from last week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate was stable at a high level, resulting in continuous abundant domestic supply. Import side: The US dollar price rose slightly, most Iranian devices stopped due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian start - up was stable, the overall external start - up was at a low level, the European and American markets were stable, the internal - external price difference narrowed slightly, the Southeast Asian re - export window closed, 235,000 tons of Iranian goods were loaded in January, non - Iranian supplies decreased, and the expected import volume in February was about 800,000 tons. Demand side: MTO losses continued to expand, raw material inventories were full, and rigid demand reduced purchases. Some MTO devices had different operating conditions. Inventory side: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was strong; and the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device start - up rate continued to decline, the Iranian gas restriction expanded, the port spot liquidity was sufficient, the overall transaction was light, and the domestic supply was abundant. The inland MTO start - up was stable, the CTO external procurement ended, and the inland large - scale device had a fault. The Middle East was relatively stable, but the situation was becoming unstable, providing support for methanol [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long at low levels (pay attention to the Middle East situation). - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell call options [5][6]

Industry Overview - As of August 14, domestic methanol overall operating load was 72.63%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points month-on-month, but an increase of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins facilities was 81.41%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - By August 20, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.076 million tons, an increase of 54,200 tons from the previous period, with East China and South China regions seeing inventory increases of 19,200 tons and 35,000 tons respectively [1] Market Sentiment - According to Wenkang Futures, coal prices are rising from the bottom, leading to higher methanol costs, but coal-to-methanol profits remain at a high level year-on-year. Domestic operating rates are gradually bottoming out and expected to rise marginally, while overseas facilities are returning to high operating levels, indicating increased imports ahead and significant supply pressure overall [2] - Demand remains weak, particularly in traditional sectors with low profits, and attention is on the actual demand situation during the upcoming peak season [2] - Olefin profits have improved, but port operations are low and demand performance is weak. Current methanol market conditions are weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season, suggesting a high risk of further declines after recent price drops, with a recommendation to maintain a wait-and-see approach [2] Port Inventory Dynamics - Last week, methanol port inventory continued to accumulate, with East China's main storage areas seeing increased deliveries supported by limited transshipment and shipping, but stable external supply led to ongoing inventory build-up, indicating a bearish outlook [3]