甲醇日报 | 2025-09-10 内地成交偏强，港口维持偏弱格局 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤415元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润793元/吨（+18）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2098元/吨（+18），内蒙北线基差300元/吨（+28），内蒙南线2120元/吨（+50）；山东临沂2383元/吨（+13）， 鲁南基差185元/吨（+23）；河南2225元/吨（+0），河南基差27元/吨（+10）；河北2235元/吨（+0），河北基差97元/ 吨（+10）。隆众内地工厂库存341083吨（+7690），西北工厂库存219000吨（+4500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单237285 吨（+20300），西北工厂待发订单133200吨（+19900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2275元/吨（+0），太仓基差-123元/吨（+10），CFR中国262美元/吨（-1），华东进口价差-18元/ 吨（+8），常州甲醇2475元/吨；广东甲醇2275元/吨（+5），广东基差-123元/吨（+15）。隆众港口总库存1427655吨 （+127905），江苏港口库存760000吨（+885 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that methanol will experience short - term fluctuations. Key factors include the increase in international device operation rates, the resumption of most plants in Iran, the recovery of imports, stable downstream demand, port inventory accumulation, expanded coal - based methanol profits, and a stable domestic supply. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2392 (-23/-0.95%) [3]. - Spot market: Different regions had varying methanol prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2020 yuan/ton, and北线 at 1970 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, Lunan was priced at 2240 yuan/ton, and Lubei at 2260 yuan/ton. At ports, Taicang was priced at 2420 yuan/ton, and Ningbo at 2480 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - From 20250628 - 20250704, the international methanol (excluding China) production was 931,383 tons, an increase of 156,460 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 63.85%, a 10.73% increase from the previous week [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply side: The coal - mine operation rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest decreased, but demand was weak, and raw coal prices fluctuated. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest were firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol was around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol operation rate remained high and stable, with a continuous and abundant domestic supply [5]. - Import side: The operation rate of international methanol devices was low, the US dollar price was stable, and imports were slightly inverted. Most Iranian devices were restarted, the non - Iranian operation rate increased slightly, and the external operation rate rebounded to the previous high. The European and American markets declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference fluctuated at a low level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window closed. Iranian shipments in June were 707,000 tons, and the expected imports in July were 1.3 million tons [5]. - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season, and the operation rate declined. The operation rate of MTO devices increased. Some MTO devices had sub - full loads, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device, Nanjing Chengzhi's Phase 1 295,000 - ton/year MTO device, and Phase 2 600,000 - ton/year MTO device [5]. - Inventory: With an increase in imports arriving at ports, port inventories accumulated, and the basis was firm. The inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated within a narrow range. The expected imports in July were 1.25 million tons, downstream demand was stable, and ports gradually accumulated inventory [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Fluctuation [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] - Options: Sell call options [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in oil prices may provide short - term rebound momentum for methanol. Although the fundamental outlook for methanol is bearish, the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, where China mainly imports methanol from Iran, brings significant risks. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: MA01 increased from 2338 yuan/ton to 2345 yuan/ton, a 0.30% rise; MA05 rose from 2279 yuan/ton to 2289 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase; MA09 went up from 2276 yuan/ton to 2282 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase [1]. - **Spot prices**: Prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia increased, with Shandong rising from 2155 yuan/ton to 2167.50 yuan/ton (0.58%) and Inner Mongolia from 1895 yuan/ton to 1897.50 yuan/ton (0.13%). The price in Taicang decreased from 2370 yuan/ton to 2361.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%), while those in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Upstream costs**: Most coal and natural gas prices remained stable, with Ordos Q5500 coal price dropping from 425 yuan/ton to 422.50 yuan/ton (-0.59%) [1]. - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit remained at 359.70 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit stayed at - 570 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit decreased from 603.80 yuan/ton to 590 yuan/ton (-2.29%), and East China MTO profit dropped from - 642.07 yuan/ton to - 669.07 yuan/ton (-4.21%). Profits of downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE also declined [1]. 3.3 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 first rose and then fell, opening at 2282 yuan/ton, closing at 2276 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 661,705 lots and an open interest of 832,017, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, although the fundamental outlook for methanol is bearish, there may be short - term rebound momentum. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The methanol market had a short - term rebound, but there is insufficient upward momentum. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving force perspective, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol is priced based on its own fundamentals. The supply, including imports and inland supply, has recovered rapidly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 decreased from 2330 yuan/ton to 2319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.47%; MA05 decreased from 2270 yuan/ton to 2263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton or 0.31%; MA09 decreased from 2270 yuan/ton to 2259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.48% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in Taicang increased from 2297.50 yuan/ton to 2307.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.44%; in Shandong, it increased from 2140 yuan/ton to 2145 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.23%; in Guangdong, it decreased from 2295 yuan/ton to 2292.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.11%; in Shaanxi, it increased from 1920 yuan/ton to 1937.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.91%; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton; in Hubei, it decreased from 2225 yuan/ton to 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.22%; in Inner Mongolia, it increased from 1875 yuan/ton to 1892.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.93% [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 32.50 yuan/ton to - 11.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 remained unchanged at 425 yuan/ton; the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 470 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 decreased from 482.50 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.52% [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The price in Hohhot remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter; the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 600 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased from 646.60 yuan/ton to 577.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton or 10.67%; the profit of East China MTO decreased from - 467.07 yuan/ton to - 477.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.50 yuan/ton or 2.25%; the profit of acetic acid decreased from 545.45 yuan/ton to 515.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 5.50%; the profit of MTBE remained unchanged at 221.52 yuan/ton; the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at - 186.40 yuan/ton; the profit of another product remained unchanged at 898 yuan/ton [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2263 yuan/ton, closing at 2259 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 741486 lots and an open interest of 812450 lots. There was a decrease in volume and open interest, and all contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1] 5. Trading Strategy - In the previous trading day, MA had a small rebound, closing at 2275 in the night session. Recently, the rebound of oil prices and coal prices, as well as the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading, provide short - term rebound momentum for methanol. However, in the long run, methanol has insufficient upward momentum [1]