Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Report date: March 6, 2026 [1] - Report type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [1][6] - Data source: Galaxy Futures [7][10] Group 2: Market Review - Futures market: The futures market closed at 2486, up 59 or 2.33% [2] - Spot market: Different regions have different spot prices, such as 1990 yuan/ton in southern Inner Mongolia, 1980 yuan/ton in northern Inner Mongolia, etc [2] Group 3: Important Information - As of March 5, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 38.95%, unchanged from last week [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit is around 300 - 350 yuan/ton, domestic supply is continuously loose. Foreign market starts to recover, import in March is expected to be about 750,000 tons [4] - Demand side: MTO plant operating rate is low, with some plants shut down or under - loaded [4] - Inventory: Port inventory is decreasing, while inland enterprise inventory fluctuates slightly. With the intensification of the conflict, there are concerns about supply shortages [4] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Operate with caution [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell call options [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 69% and the Yulin region at 42% as of March 6. After the Spring Festival, coal mines resumed production, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 3 million tons. Demand has weakened, and pit - mouth prices have stopped rising and are weakly falling [3]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 300 - 350 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, with domestic supply remaining loose. The US dollar price has risen significantly. Iranian plants have restarted, and the non - Iranian operating rate has increased after the US cold wave ended, but the European and American markets fell sharply during the holidays, narrowing the domestic - foreign price difference and closing the Southeast Asian re - export window. The expected import volume in March is about 750,000 tons [3]. - The MTO plant operating rate is at a low level, with some plants shut down and some operating under - capacity. The port inventory is continuously decreasing due to reduced imports from shipping closures, while the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates slightly [3]. - Before the intensification of the conflict, Iranian methanol plants that were shut down due to gas restrictions resumed production, with the daily output increasing from 6,000 tons to 23,000 tons and the operating rate rising to about 60%. After the intensification of the conflict, some plants in Iran shut down, and the daily output dropped to about 500 tons. The domestic market is worried about a significant reduction in future imports. If the conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, the inventory in East and South China will decrease rapidly. The spot price of methanol in Northwest China has also risen sharply. The methanol futures have fluctuated sharply in the past two days, and the exchange has introduced regulatory policies. Currently, the fundamentals have not changed, and trading should be cautious [3]. - The trading strategies are: for single - side trading, go long at low prices but do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, focus on positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The report analyzes the raw coal situation, methanol supply and demand, inventory, and the impact of the Middle East conflict on methanol. It also provides trading strategies including single - side trading, arbitrage, and over - the - counter trading [3] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - Supply - Domestic: As of March 5, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 77.36%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points from last week but an increase of 5.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 87.93%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from last week and an increase of 3.96 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 69.85%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week [5]. - Supply - International: From February 28 to March 6, 2026, the international (ex - China) methanol output was 760,909 tons, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 52.16%, a decrease of 4.14%. Geopolitical conflicts led to large - scale shutdowns of plants in the Middle East, and Southeast Asian plants have not recovered this week [5]. - Supply - Import: From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 227,900 tons, including 200,300 tons from foreign vessels and 27,600 tons from domestic vessels. Among them, Jiangsu received 15,300 tons, Guangdong 6,300 tons, and Xiamen 6,000 tons [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 38.95%, the same as last week. The national olefin plant operating rate was 85.37%, and the operation of domestic MTO enterprises' plants was stable, with only individual adjustments in inland enterprises' loads and no obvious change in the operating rate [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 2.85%. The Wanlilai plant increased its load, and the Yunnan Jiehua plant started up, with the recovery volume greater than the loss volume. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 84.11%, and the overall capacity utilization rate was stable. The formaldehyde operating rate was 28.72%, with multiple domestic plants starting up and some plants increasing their loads, resulting in an increase in supply [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 101,400 tons, an increase of 80,100 tons from the previous statistical date, with a month - on - month increase of 376.06% [5]. - Inventory - Enterprise: As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 552,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 295,200 tons, an increase of 85,500 tons from the previous period [5]. - Inventory - Port: As of March 4, 2026, the total port inventory was 1,443,500 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 27,400 tons [5]. - Valuation: In terms of profit, the price of chemical coal in the northwest region was stable, and the inland methanol auction price increased sharply. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 480 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi, it was 520 yuan/ton. The port - north line price difference was 480 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 140 yuan/ton. The MTO loss increased, and the basis was stable [5] 2. Spot Price - The spot price of Taicang was 2,460 yuan/ton (+270), and the north line was 1,980 yuan/ton (+170) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is currently influenced by geopolitical factors and the performance of the non - ferrous metals market. Unilateral trading is difficult as pricing power is not mainly in the industrial sector, and the trading rhythm is fast. The price center of the main methanol contract is rising. With the approach of the Spring Festival, downstream demand in Shandong has decreased, but overall demand remains okay. The 05 contract is facing downstream production, and the long - position expectations have not been falsified. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [2]. - The short - term trend of methanol is expected to be oscillating upwards, with a price range of 2100 - 2350. The recommended strategies are 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO margins [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The methanol market follows geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends. The main change in fundamentals is that an Iranian ZPC device returned at 40% load last Wednesday. The 05 contract increased positions by over 50,000 lots on Wednesday night, and the industrial pricing is more reflected in the 5 - 9 reverse spread. The main methanol contract declined with the resumption of US - Iran negotiations and the fall of non - ferrous precious metals. Unilateral trading is difficult, and attention should be paid to both geopolitical and non - ferrous metal market changes. The price center of the main contract is rising. Although downstream demand in Shandong has decreased during the Spring Festival, overall demand is still acceptable, and the upstream inventory in the inland area is in a healthy state before the festival. The 05 contract is facing downstream production, and long - position expectations have not been falsified [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Base - price Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 05 was 2245. After the price on the futures market rose and then fell, the 05 basis declined [12]. - **Spread Strategy**: This week, with the expectation of MTO shutdown, the 3 - 5 spread went into a reverse spread [13]. - **Trend Judgment and Strategy Suggestion**: The trend of methanol is expected to be oscillating upwards, with a short - term price range of 2100 - 2350. The recommended strategies are 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO margins [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - The inland methanol inventory situation is presented through multiple data charts, including the inventory of northwest methanol (excluding MTO), northwest MTO inventory, southern and northern line methanol plant inventories, national methanol plant inventory, national net plant inventory (plant inventory - pre - sales), and methanol northwest pending orders [20][24][29]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - The port inventory situation is shown through various data charts, including the weekly inventory seasonality of Chinese methanol ports (from Steel Union and SCI), the weekly inventory seasonality of methanol ports in different provinces, methanol downstream inventory in the East China region (excluding Shandong), methanol coastal available inventory, and methanol weekly arrival volume seasonality [36][52]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [63]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there is a concern about methanol price decline, it is recommended to short methanol futures to lock in profits and buy put options while selling call options. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy methanol futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [63]. - **Positive Information**: There is news that the Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi called on workers in key oil, gas, and energy sectors to start a national - scale strike and hold large - scale demonstrations [64]. - **Negative Information**: Iran's shipments in January were 390,000 tons [65]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Donald Trump expressed support for protesters and stated that the US is ready to provide assistance. The US government is discussing a possible strike against Iran, including air strikes on military targets, but no decision has been made [67]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland area, the current methanol production is at an absolute high level, while winter is the traditional off - season for downstream demand. Downstream users' raw material inventories are generally high, and there is a phenomenon of vehicle congestion in some downstream sectors. Some olefin plants in the port area have shutdown plans, which will further weaken demand and significantly suppress market sentiment [68]. - This week, the 1 - 5 spread oscillated, mainly due to the increase in Iranian shipments [76]. 3.4 Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The document presents price trends of various products, including coal prices in Ordos and Qinhuangdao, methanol prices in the Lunan market and Taicang, and methanol warehouse receipts and related indicators [80][81][86]. 3.4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - It shows the production costs and profit seasonality of methanol produced from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, and coke oven gas) in different regions, as well as the profit seasonality of downstream products such as MTO, acetic acid, MTBE, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde [92][94][127]. 3.4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Yield Tracking in the Industrial Chain - It includes the weekly operating rates of major methanol enterprises, methanol production from different raw materials, and the operating rates of downstream products such as MTO and traditional downstream products [98][101][114]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - It presents the import volume seasonality of methanol from different countries, the external - market structure of methanol, and the import profit seasonality of Iranian methanol [132][134]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking - It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate seasonality of foreign methanol production, the overseas weekly production volume, and the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants [136][137]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory changes of methanol in ports from January 2025 to May 2026, including Iranian and non - Iranian imports, various demand items, and inventory consumption ratios [140].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the methanol market is complex, with high - level stable domestic supply, low - level external market operation, and strong expectations of domestic MTO shutdown. However, the unstable situation in the Middle East provides relatively strong support for methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The futures market declined, closing at 2239 (- 45/-1.97%). In the spot market, production areas had different quotes: Inner Mongolia南线 was 1870 yuan/ton,北线 was 1820 yuan/ton, etc.; consumption areas also had various prices: Lunan was 2160 yuan/ton, etc.; and ports like Taicang were 2240 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20260110 - 20260116), the international methanol (excluding China) output was 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1190 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 59.41%, a decline of 0.08% from last week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate was stable at a high level, resulting in continuous abundant domestic supply. Import side: The US dollar price rose slightly, most Iranian devices stopped due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian start - up was stable, the overall external start - up was at a low level, the European and American markets were stable, the internal - external price difference narrowed slightly, the Southeast Asian re - export window closed, 235,000 tons of Iranian goods were loaded in January, non - Iranian supplies decreased, and the expected import volume in February was about 800,000 tons. Demand side: MTO losses continued to expand, raw material inventories were full, and rigid demand reduced purchases. Some MTO devices had different operating conditions. Inventory side: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was strong; and the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device start - up rate continued to decline, the Iranian gas restriction expanded, the port spot liquidity was sufficient, the overall transaction was light, and the domestic supply was abundant. The inland MTO start - up was stable, the CTO external procurement ended, and the inland large - scale device had a fault. The Middle East was relatively stable, but the situation was becoming unstable, providing support for methanol [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long at low levels (pay attention to the Middle East situation). - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell call options [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The开工率 of coal mines is stable, with the开工率 in Erdos at 73% and in Yulin at 50% as of December 18. Coal production has recovered, but demand has declined, leading to a continuous drop in pit - mouth prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the methanol开工率 is stable at a high level, with a continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian plants have shut down due to gas restrictions and no tenders have been issued. The开工率 of non - Iranian plants has increased, and the overseas开工率 has slightly increased from a low level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, and the domestic - overseas price difference has narrowed. The Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 590,000 tons in December, and some non - Iranian supplies have been delayed to January. The import forecast for January has been raised to around 1.4 million tons [4]. - The开工率 of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably while others are under - loaded or shut down. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing due to a slight reduction in imported arrivals caused by shipping closures, and the basis is relatively stable. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - Overall, the international plant开工率 has declined, and the gas restriction in Iran has expanded, with only one plant remaining in operation. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall trading is light. The US dollar price is stable, and the import parity is stable. The coal price has fallen weakly, and the domestic supply is loose. The inland MTO开工率 is stable, and the inland price is relatively strong recently. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut in December, the domestic commodities have fluctuated widely, but the impact on methanol futures has weakened. Methanol is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Gradually build long positions for the 05 contract when the price is below 2100. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage. - Over - the - counter: Sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic** - As of December 18, the overall domestic methanol plant开工率 was 77.63%, up 0.99 percentage points from last week and 3.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The开工率 in the northwest region was 89.01%, up 1.48 percentage points from last week and 2.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The average开工率 of non - integrated methanol plants was 70.22%, up 1.35 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International** - In the period from December 6 to December 12, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 914,499 tons, a decrease of 30,956 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 62.69%, a decrease of 2.12% from last week. Some plants in Iran, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South America and North America had different operating conditions [5]. - **Supply - Import** - From December 11 to December 17, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 344,000 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO** - As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 70.10%, a decrease of 7.44 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant开工率 was 89.49%, and the weekly average开工率 of the MTO industry decreased [5]. - **Demand - Traditional** - The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 7.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 76.51%. The formaldehyde开工率 was 42.58% [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales** - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 59,700 tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 39.49% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises** - The production enterprise inventory was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.25% [5]. - **Inventory - Ports** - As of December 17, 2025, the total port inventory was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 31,000 tons, while that in South China increased by 15,400 tons [5]. - **Valuation** - In the northwest region, the price of chemical coal has fallen, while the inland methanol auction price has been stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 460 yuan/ton, and that in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has been stable [5]. - **Spot Prices** - The price in Taicang is 2140 (+50), and the price in the north line is 1900 (-50) [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market maintains a pattern where the inland is strong and the port is weak. The northwest region has good trading volume, while the port basis remains weak. Port imports face high pressure, leading to a continuous and rapid increase in port inventory. Since late July, the maintenance of Xingxing MTO has dragged down port demand. Although the planned resumption of work in early September may slow down the rate of inventory accumulation at the port, the reality of high inventory is difficult to change. The subsequent variable mainly concerns the start time of Iran's winter maintenance this year. The market is also waiting for the announcement of Iran's gas field maintenance plan in October and the port's storage capacity critical point. In the inland, the coal - based methanol production started to recover from the bottom in late August, and the most tense period has passed. Among traditional downstream industries, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid have declined, and the formaldehyde operating rate remains low. The market is starting to pay attention to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on different industries, and the petrochemical industry is waiting for further details on the rectification of plants in operation for over 20 years [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report includes multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, such as the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and various import - related spreads such as the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][30] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The report presents data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][34] IV. Regional Price Differences - It shows regional price differences such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between other regions [38][44] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [46][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that methanol will experience short - term fluctuations. Key factors include the increase in international device operation rates, the resumption of most plants in Iran, the recovery of imports, stable downstream demand, port inventory accumulation, expanded coal - based methanol profits, and a stable domestic supply. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2392 (-23/-0.95%) [3]. - Spot market: Different regions had varying methanol prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2020 yuan/ton, and北线 at 1970 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, Lunan was priced at 2240 yuan/ton, and Lubei at 2260 yuan/ton. At ports, Taicang was priced at 2420 yuan/ton, and Ningbo at 2480 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - From 20250628 - 20250704, the international methanol (excluding China) production was 931,383 tons, an increase of 156,460 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 63.85%, a 10.73% increase from the previous week [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply side: The coal - mine operation rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest decreased, but demand was weak, and raw coal prices fluctuated. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest were firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol was around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol operation rate remained high and stable, with a continuous and abundant domestic supply [5]. - Import side: The operation rate of international methanol devices was low, the US dollar price was stable, and imports were slightly inverted. Most Iranian devices were restarted, the non - Iranian operation rate increased slightly, and the external operation rate rebounded to the previous high. The European and American markets declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference fluctuated at a low level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window closed. Iranian shipments in June were 707,000 tons, and the expected imports in July were 1.3 million tons [5]. - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season, and the operation rate declined. The operation rate of MTO devices increased. Some MTO devices had sub - full loads, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device, Nanjing Chengzhi's Phase 1 295,000 - ton/year MTO device, and Phase 2 600,000 - ton/year MTO device [5]. - Inventory: With an increase in imports arriving at ports, port inventories accumulated, and the basis was firm. The inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated within a narrow range. The expected imports in July were 1.25 million tons, downstream demand was stable, and ports gradually accumulated inventory [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Fluctuation [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] - Options: Sell call options [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in oil prices may provide short - term rebound momentum for methanol. Although the fundamental outlook for methanol is bearish, the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, where China mainly imports methanol from Iran, brings significant risks. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: MA01 increased from 2338 yuan/ton to 2345 yuan/ton, a 0.30% rise; MA05 rose from 2279 yuan/ton to 2289 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase; MA09 went up from 2276 yuan/ton to 2282 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase [1]. - **Spot prices**: Prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia increased, with Shandong rising from 2155 yuan/ton to 2167.50 yuan/ton (0.58%) and Inner Mongolia from 1895 yuan/ton to 1897.50 yuan/ton (0.13%). The price in Taicang decreased from 2370 yuan/ton to 2361.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%), while those in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Upstream costs**: Most coal and natural gas prices remained stable, with Ordos Q5500 coal price dropping from 425 yuan/ton to 422.50 yuan/ton (-0.59%) [1]. - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit remained at 359.70 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit stayed at - 570 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit decreased from 603.80 yuan/ton to 590 yuan/ton (-2.29%), and East China MTO profit dropped from - 642.07 yuan/ton to - 669.07 yuan/ton (-4.21%). Profits of downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE also declined [1]. 3.3 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 first rose and then fell, opening at 2282 yuan/ton, closing at 2276 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 661,705 lots and an open interest of 832,017, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, although the fundamental outlook for methanol is bearish, there may be short - term rebound momentum. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The methanol market had a short - term rebound, but there is insufficient upward momentum. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving force perspective, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol is priced based on its own fundamentals. The supply, including imports and inland supply, has recovered rapidly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 decreased from 2330 yuan/ton to 2319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.47%; MA05 decreased from 2270 yuan/ton to 2263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton or 0.31%; MA09 decreased from 2270 yuan/ton to 2259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.48% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in Taicang increased from 2297.50 yuan/ton to 2307.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.44%; in Shandong, it increased from 2140 yuan/ton to 2145 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.23%; in Guangdong, it decreased from 2295 yuan/ton to 2292.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.11%; in Shaanxi, it increased from 1920 yuan/ton to 1937.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.91%; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton; in Hubei, it decreased from 2225 yuan/ton to 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.22%; in Inner Mongolia, it increased from 1875 yuan/ton to 1892.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.93% [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 32.50 yuan/ton to - 11.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 remained unchanged at 425 yuan/ton; the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 470 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 decreased from 482.50 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.52% [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The price in Hohhot remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter; the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 600 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased from 646.60 yuan/ton to 577.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton or 10.67%; the profit of East China MTO decreased from - 467.07 yuan/ton to - 477.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.50 yuan/ton or 2.25%; the profit of acetic acid decreased from 545.45 yuan/ton to 515.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 5.50%; the profit of MTBE remained unchanged at 221.52 yuan/ton; the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at - 186.40 yuan/ton; the profit of another product remained unchanged at 898 yuan/ton [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2263 yuan/ton, closing at 2259 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 741486 lots and an open interest of 812450 lots. There was a decrease in volume and open interest, and all contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1] 5. Trading Strategy - In the previous trading day, MA had a small rebound, closing at 2275 in the night session. Recently, the rebound of oil prices and coal prices, as well as the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading, provide short - term rebound momentum for methanol. However, in the long run, methanol has insufficient upward momentum [1]