南华期货甲醇产业周报 ——空仓过节 2026/2/8 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 甲醇最近行情仍然跟随地缘与有色，基本面最大的变化在于上周三伊朗ZPC装置回来一套(40%负荷).05 合约在上周三夜盘增仓5万余手，单边绝对价格并没有什么变化，产业定价更多体现在5-9反套上(伊朗装置提 前归来对05的压力大于03)。随着美伊谈判的恢复与有色贵金属的下跌，甲醇主力合约下跌。从交易角度看， 单边参与难度较大，一方面定价权基本不在产业内，另一方面交易节奏也极快在关注地缘的基础上也需要关 注有色等盘面的变化。从前两次地缘缓和(2318-2183,2394-2243)的结果看，甲醇主力合约的价格重心在不断 上行。此外临近春节山东甲醛等下游需求降负但联弘与阳煤等mto维持开车状态，山东整体需求还可以，随着 内地上游排库不断进行(上周内地去库5.58w)，内地节前还算健康。2400的甲醇或许很贵，但2200的甲醇也还 行，毕竟1月发运再超预期基数也还是低，05合约面临着下游投产，多头预期不到证伪的阶段。综上临近 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the methanol market is complex, with high - level stable domestic supply, low - level external market operation, and strong expectations of domestic MTO shutdown. However, the unstable situation in the Middle East provides relatively strong support for methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The futures market declined, closing at 2239 (- 45/-1.97%). In the spot market, production areas had different quotes: Inner Mongolia南线 was 1870 yuan/ton,北线 was 1820 yuan/ton, etc.; consumption areas also had various prices: Lunan was 2160 yuan/ton, etc.; and ports like Taicang were 2240 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20260110 - 20260116), the international methanol (excluding China) output was 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1190 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 59.41%, a decline of 0.08% from last week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate was stable at a high level, resulting in continuous abundant domestic supply. Import side: The US dollar price rose slightly, most Iranian devices stopped due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian start - up was stable, the overall external start - up was at a low level, the European and American markets were stable, the internal - external price difference narrowed slightly, the Southeast Asian re - export window closed, 235,000 tons of Iranian goods were loaded in January, non - Iranian supplies decreased, and the expected import volume in February was about 800,000 tons. Demand side: MTO losses continued to expand, raw material inventories were full, and rigid demand reduced purchases. Some MTO devices had different operating conditions. Inventory side: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was strong; and the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device start - up rate continued to decline, the Iranian gas restriction expanded, the port spot liquidity was sufficient, the overall transaction was light, and the domestic supply was abundant. The inland MTO start - up was stable, the CTO external procurement ended, and the inland large - scale device had a fault. The Middle East was relatively stable, but the situation was becoming unstable, providing support for methanol [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long at low levels (pay attention to the Middle East situation). - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell call options [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The开工率 of coal mines is stable, with the开工率 in Erdos at 73% and in Yulin at 50% as of December 18. Coal production has recovered, but demand has declined, leading to a continuous drop in pit - mouth prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the methanol开工率 is stable at a high level, with a continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian plants have shut down due to gas restrictions and no tenders have been issued. The开工率 of non - Iranian plants has increased, and the overseas开工率 has slightly increased from a low level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, and the domestic - overseas price difference has narrowed. The Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 590,000 tons in December, and some non - Iranian supplies have been delayed to January. The import forecast for January has been raised to around 1.4 million tons [4]. - The开工率 of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably while others are under - loaded or shut down. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing due to a slight reduction in imported arrivals caused by shipping closures, and the basis is relatively stable. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - Overall, the international plant开工率 has declined, and the gas restriction in Iran has expanded, with only one plant remaining in operation. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall trading is light. The US dollar price is stable, and the import parity is stable. The coal price has fallen weakly, and the domestic supply is loose. The inland MTO开工率 is stable, and the inland price is relatively strong recently. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut in December, the domestic commodities have fluctuated widely, but the impact on methanol futures has weakened. Methanol is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Gradually build long positions for the 05 contract when the price is below 2100. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage. - Over - the - counter: Sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic** - As of December 18, the overall domestic methanol plant开工率 was 77.63%, up 0.99 percentage points from last week and 3.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The开工率 in the northwest region was 89.01%, up 1.48 percentage points from last week and 2.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The average开工率 of non - integrated methanol plants was 70.22%, up 1.35 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International** - In the period from December 6 to December 12, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 914,499 tons, a decrease of 30,956 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 62.69%, a decrease of 2.12% from last week. Some plants in Iran, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South America and North America had different operating conditions [5]. - **Supply - Import** - From December 11 to December 17, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 344,000 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO** - As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 70.10%, a decrease of 7.44 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant开工率 was 89.49%, and the weekly average开工率 of the MTO industry decreased [5]. - **Demand - Traditional** - The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 7.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 76.51%. The formaldehyde开工率 was 42.58% [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales** - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 59,700 tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 39.49% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises** - The production enterprise inventory was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.25% [5]. - **Inventory - Ports** - As of December 17, 2025, the total port inventory was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 31,000 tons, while that in South China increased by 15,400 tons [5]. - **Valuation** - In the northwest region, the price of chemical coal has fallen, while the inland methanol auction price has been stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 460 yuan/ton, and that in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has been stable [5]. - **Spot Prices** - The price in Taicang is 2140 (+50), and the price in the north line is 1900 (-50) [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market maintains a pattern where the inland is strong and the port is weak. The northwest region has good trading volume, while the port basis remains weak. Port imports face high pressure, leading to a continuous and rapid increase in port inventory. Since late July, the maintenance of Xingxing MTO has dragged down port demand. Although the planned resumption of work in early September may slow down the rate of inventory accumulation at the port, the reality of high inventory is difficult to change. The subsequent variable mainly concerns the start time of Iran's winter maintenance this year. The market is also waiting for the announcement of Iran's gas field maintenance plan in October and the port's storage capacity critical point. In the inland, the coal - based methanol production started to recover from the bottom in late August, and the most tense period has passed. Among traditional downstream industries, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid have declined, and the formaldehyde operating rate remains low. The market is starting to pay attention to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on different industries, and the petrochemical industry is waiting for further details on the rectification of plants in operation for over 20 years [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report includes multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, such as the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and various import - related spreads such as the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][30] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The report presents data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][34] IV. Regional Price Differences - It shows regional price differences such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between other regions [38][44] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [46][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that methanol will experience short - term fluctuations. Key factors include the increase in international device operation rates, the resumption of most plants in Iran, the recovery of imports, stable downstream demand, port inventory accumulation, expanded coal - based methanol profits, and a stable domestic supply. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2392 (-23/-0.95%) [3]. - Spot market: Different regions had varying methanol prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2020 yuan/ton, and北线 at 1970 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, Lunan was priced at 2240 yuan/ton, and Lubei at 2260 yuan/ton. At ports, Taicang was priced at 2420 yuan/ton, and Ningbo at 2480 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - From 20250628 - 20250704, the international methanol (excluding China) production was 931,383 tons, an increase of 156,460 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 63.85%, a 10.73% increase from the previous week [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply side: The coal - mine operation rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest decreased, but demand was weak, and raw coal prices fluctuated. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest were firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol was around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol operation rate remained high and stable, with a continuous and abundant domestic supply [5]. - Import side: The operation rate of international methanol devices was low, the US dollar price was stable, and imports were slightly inverted. Most Iranian devices were restarted, the non - Iranian operation rate increased slightly, and the external operation rate rebounded to the previous high. The European and American markets declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference fluctuated at a low level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window closed. Iranian shipments in June were 707,000 tons, and the expected imports in July were 1.3 million tons [5]. - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season, and the operation rate declined. The operation rate of MTO devices increased. Some MTO devices had sub - full loads, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device, Nanjing Chengzhi's Phase 1 295,000 - ton/year MTO device, and Phase 2 600,000 - ton/year MTO device [5]. - Inventory: With an increase in imports arriving at ports, port inventories accumulated, and the basis was firm. The inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated within a narrow range. The expected imports in July were 1.25 million tons, downstream demand was stable, and ports gradually accumulated inventory [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Fluctuation [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] - Options: Sell call options [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in oil prices may provide short - term rebound momentum for methanol. Although the fundamental outlook for methanol is bearish, the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, where China mainly imports methanol from Iran, brings significant risks. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: MA01 increased from 2338 yuan/ton to 2345 yuan/ton, a 0.30% rise; MA05 rose from 2279 yuan/ton to 2289 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase; MA09 went up from 2276 yuan/ton to 2282 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase [1]. - **Spot prices**: Prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia increased, with Shandong rising from 2155 yuan/ton to 2167.50 yuan/ton (0.58%) and Inner Mongolia from 1895 yuan/ton to 1897.50 yuan/ton (0.13%). The price in Taicang decreased from 2370 yuan/ton to 2361.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%), while those in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Upstream costs**: Most coal and natural gas prices remained stable, with Ordos Q5500 coal price dropping from 425 yuan/ton to 422.50 yuan/ton (-0.59%) [1]. - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit remained at 359.70 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit stayed at - 570 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit decreased from 603.80 yuan/ton to 590 yuan/ton (-2.29%), and East China MTO profit dropped from - 642.07 yuan/ton to - 669.07 yuan/ton (-4.21%). Profits of downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE also declined [1]. 3.3 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 first rose and then fell, opening at 2282 yuan/ton, closing at 2276 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 661,705 lots and an open interest of 832,017, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, although the fundamental outlook for methanol is bearish, there may be short - term rebound momentum. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The methanol market had a short - term rebound, but there is insufficient upward momentum. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving force perspective, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol is priced based on its own fundamentals. The supply, including imports and inland supply, has recovered rapidly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 decreased from 2330 yuan/ton to 2319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.47%; MA05 decreased from 2270 yuan/ton to 2263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton or 0.31%; MA09 decreased from 2270 yuan/ton to 2259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.48% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in Taicang increased from 2297.50 yuan/ton to 2307.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.44%; in Shandong, it increased from 2140 yuan/ton to 2145 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.23%; in Guangdong, it decreased from 2295 yuan/ton to 2292.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.11%; in Shaanxi, it increased from 1920 yuan/ton to 1937.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.91%; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton; in Hubei, it decreased from 2225 yuan/ton to 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.22%; in Inner Mongolia, it increased from 1875 yuan/ton to 1892.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.93% [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 32.50 yuan/ton to - 11.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 remained unchanged at 425 yuan/ton; the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 470 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 decreased from 482.50 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.52% [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The price in Hohhot remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter; the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 600 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased from 646.60 yuan/ton to 577.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton or 10.67%; the profit of East China MTO decreased from - 467.07 yuan/ton to - 477.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.50 yuan/ton or 2.25%; the profit of acetic acid decreased from 545.45 yuan/ton to 515.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 5.50%; the profit of MTBE remained unchanged at 221.52 yuan/ton; the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at - 186.40 yuan/ton; the profit of another product remained unchanged at 898 yuan/ton [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2263 yuan/ton, closing at 2259 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 741486 lots and an open interest of 812450 lots. There was a decrease in volume and open interest, and all contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1] 5. Trading Strategy - In the previous trading day, MA had a small rebound, closing at 2275 in the night session. Recently, the rebound of oil prices and coal prices, as well as the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading, provide short - term rebound momentum for methanol. However, in the long run, methanol has insufficient upward momentum [1]