电价下滑

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浙能电力(600023):成本下行弹性释放,Q2业绩逆势增长
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-29 08:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company has shown resilience with a Q2 profit increase despite a decrease in overall revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to lower electricity prices in Zhejiang Province [1][4] - The company benefits from a decline in coal prices, which enhances its profit recovery potential and growth opportunities [4] - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity generation and sales, driven by rising demand in Zhejiang Province and new coal power projects coming online [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 35.472 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.68% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.512 billion yuan, down 10.57% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 17.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.28% year-on-year, but a net profit of 2.437 billion yuan, an increase of 15.42% year-on-year [1] - The company's electricity generation for the first half of 2025 was 78.848 billion kWh, up 4.48% year-on-year, with a notable increase in Q2 [2] Investment Insights - The company is positioned as a leading thermal power operator in Zhejiang Province, with a strong financial position and high dividend yield [4] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 86.797 billion yuan, 90.309 billion yuan, and 91.955 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 6.838 billion yuan, 7.895 billion yuan, and 8.481 billion yuan [4][6] - The report emphasizes the company's ability to recover profits and maintain high dividend payouts, with an expected EPS of 0.51 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.63 yuan for 2025-2027 [4][6]
粤电力A:电价下滑拖累业绩,成本下行静待盈利修复-20250502
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-02 02:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance is being pressured by declining electricity prices, while cost reductions are anticipated to support profit recovery [1][3] - The company has seen a decrease in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, primarily due to lower electricity prices [1][2] - Despite the challenges, there is significant growth potential in installed capacity, with ongoing projects and a favorable coal price outlook expected to improve profitability [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 571.59 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.27%, and a net profit of 9.64 billion, down 1.07% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 105.73 billion, a decrease of 17.33%, and a net loss of 3.83 billion, a significant drop of 403% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of electricity in 2024 was 0.533 yuan per kWh, down 8.62% from the previous year [2] Generation Capacity and Cost Analysis - The company's total power generation in 2024 was 1258 billion kWh, an increase of 4.38% year-on-year, with significant growth in gas and renewable energy generation [2] - Fuel costs accounted for 75.81% of operating costs in 2024, benefiting from a reduction in fuel prices, which decreased by 27.25 billion year-on-year [2] - The company has a substantial growth potential in installed capacity, with approved projects totaling 707 million kW and ongoing projects of 1202 million kW [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate operating revenues of 576.52 billion, 632.93 billion, and 686.00 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 0.9%, 9.8%, and 8.4% [3] - Net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.77 billion, 11.78 billion, and 15.51 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.19, 0.22, and 0.30 [3][4]