2025 年 08 月 26 日 ③成本：2Q25 煤价持续下行，长协、市场煤同比降幅已分别达到 3.6%、25.3%，使得公司在收入负增长时录得利润端的正增长，对应 1H25 公司发电业务成本降幅约为 11.6%。 成本低位、装机放量，后续年内业绩预计同比仍有增长空间。7-8M25 煤价在需求增长拉动下有所抬升，但较去年同期仍同比-22.6%；且 预计后续随气温回落，煤价涨至 8 月底已基本见顶；此外，公司控 股装机放量带来的电量增长空间有望释放，叠加公司参股的池州二 期、国安二期、安庆三期、中煤六安电厂预计 25-26 年投产，有望 贡献投资收益增量空间。 皖能电力（000543.SZ） 买入（维持评级） 公司点评 证券研究报告 度电成本显著下滑，2Q25 利润转正 2025 年 8 月 25 日公司披露半年报，上半年实现营收 131.85 亿元， 同比-5.83%；实现归母净利润 10.82 亿元，同比+1.05%。其中，公 司 Q2 实现营收 67.66 亿元，同比-3.6%；实现归母净利润 6.38 亿 元，同比+3.2%。 公司 1H25 归母净利润正增长，其中 Q1 负增长，Q2 在电价、电量持 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is experiencing a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices and a supply-demand imbalance in the coal market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of approximately 4.65 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 2.9 billion yuan compared to 7.6 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 38% [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company's net profit was 2.71 billion yuan, down 27.89% from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Coal Market Analysis - The decline in performance is attributed to a downward trend in coal prices, with the domestic coal market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance since 2025 [2][4]. - The price of Q5000 thermal coal in Shandong dropped to 535-560 yuan per ton by June 27, 2025, a decrease of 162.5 yuan per ton (22.89%) from the end of 2024, with an average price of approximately 619.35 yuan per ton, down 184.37 yuan per ton (22.94%) year-on-year [2]. - Overall, coal prices fell by more than 20% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The oversupply in the coal market is due to high domestic coal production and record-high port coal inventories, despite a slight decrease in imported coal [4]. - Demand for coal is primarily driven by non-electric industries and fluctuating speculative demand from traders, with limited demand from the power sector [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the coal market may see some improvement in the second half of 2025, with potential demand increases during peak seasons, although the overall supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist [4]. - The chemical business of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is showing positive growth, with production of chemical products reaching 2.414 million tons, an increase of 11.59%, and sales of 2.018 million tons, up 7.27% year-on-year [5]. Group 5: Chemical Business Performance - The chemical segment, while smaller compared to coal operations, has been performing well, contributing approximately 500 million yuan in revenue in the first quarter of 2025 [5]. - The decline in coal prices has reduced costs for the chemical business, as about 70% of its costs are linked to coal prices, providing support for profitability [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the continuous release of domestic thermal coal production capacity, the overall supply and demand for thermal coal is expected to be relatively loose by 2025, leading to a potential further decline in coal prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility sector and the environmental sector [7] Core Insights - The environmental performance exceeded expectations, and the profitability of thermal power is expected to improve due to declining coal prices [2][3] - The cash flow for environmental companies is anticipated to continue improving, supported by debt reduction policies emphasized in the recent political meetings [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The decline in coal prices has led to a significant increase in the net profit of thermal power companies, with a median year-on-year growth of 145% in Q4 2024, surpassing previous forecasts [12] - The expected net profit growth for thermal power companies in 2025 is projected at 5%, with market expectations for several companies being adjusted downwards by 10-20% since March 1, 2025 [15][18] Hydropower - The hydropower sector experienced a median year-on-year net profit decline of 58% in Q4 2024, but a recovery is expected with a 26% growth in Q1 2025 [24][25] - The market consensus for the net profit growth of hydropower companies in 2025 is set at 13%, with slight downward adjustments in expectations for several companies [26] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector's net profit growth was below expectations, with a median year-on-year growth of -30% in Q4 2024, but a slight recovery to 1% in Q1 2025 is anticipated [20] - The cash flow situation for renewable energy companies has shown improvement, with many companies reporting positive operating cash flow in 2024 [22][23] Natural Gas - The natural gas supply-demand balance has shifted to a relatively loose state, impacting profitability negatively, with a median net profit growth forecast for gas companies being adjusted downwards by 3% since March 1, 2025 [4] Environmental Sector - The environmental companies reported a higher-than-expected net profit in Q1 2025, benefiting from improved cash flow due to debt reduction policies [5] - The operating cash flow for environmental companies increased by 18% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a positive trend in financial health [5][22]

事件：2025 年3 月27 日，公司发布2024 年年度报告。2024 年全年，公司实现营业收入1129.94 亿元， 同比下降3.57%；营业成本1030.71 亿元，同比下降6.00%；实现归母净利润57.03 亿元，同比上涨 26.11%；实现基本每股收益为人民币 0.46 元/股，同比去年提高0.11 元/股。 利用小时数下降带动营收下降。2024 年全年，公司实现营业收入1129.94亿元，同比下降3.57%。公司 完成发电量2226.26 亿千瓦时，同比下降约0.52%；其中煤机1934.7 亿千瓦时（yoy-1.07%），燃机 208.78 亿千瓦时（yoy+10.53%），水电82.7 亿千瓦时（yoy-11.37%）。利用小时数方面，公司煤电、 气电、水电分别为4084、2052、3363 小时，分别同比去年下降215、35、431 小时。公司发电量下降主 要由利用小时数下降引起，利用小时数下降主要原因系公司火电机组利用小时受新能源机组挤压。燃气 发电板块的发电量增长原因系报告期内公司新投产装机150.88 万千瓦全部为燃气机组。 煤价、电价剪刀差扩大带动公司利润增长。2024 年，公司平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Qinfa, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6][10]. Core Insights - The primary factor driving the recent decline in coal prices is weak demand [1]. - In the first two months of 2025, raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year, with a daily average production of 12.97 million tons [1][13]. - Coal imports for the same period reached 7.619 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2][15]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in thermal coal imports for 2025, projecting a total of approximately 38.5 million tons, down 4.9% from the previous year [2][15]. - The report highlights a significant drop in thermal power generation, which decreased by 5.8% year-on-year in January and February 2025 [3][17]. - The crude steel production in the same period saw a decline of 1.5% year-on-year, amounting to 16.63 million tons [4][24]. Summary by Sections Production - In January and February 2025, raw coal production was 77 million tons, marking a 7.7% increase year-on-year, with an expected net increase of 55-60 million tons for the year [1][13]. Imports - The total coal imports for the first two months of 2025 were 7.619 million tons, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year [2][15]. The report predicts a stable to slightly declining trend in thermal coal imports for the year [2][15]. Demand - The report notes a 5.8% year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation, with total industrial power generation down by 1.3% [3][17]. The growth rates for other energy sources like wind and solar power were noted, with wind power increasing by 10.4% and solar power by 27.4% [3][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a focus on companies showing potential for recovery, such as China Qinfa and China Shenhua, and highlights the importance of companies engaging in share buybacks, like Pingmei Shenma [5][26].