12月19日，《财经》杂志举办"Mark一下：'十五五'，绿色转型关键时期"圆桌对话，聚焦新一轮规划周 期中绿色转型的推进路径，围绕新型能源体系、电力市场化改革、国际合作以及经济社会全面绿色转型 等议题展开深入讨论。与会专家认为，在"十四五"已建成全球最大可再生能源体系的基础上，未来五年 需在电力系统灵活性、市场机制完善和绿色生活方式塑造等方面取得实质性突破，以支撑碳达峰目标的 实现。 "十四五"规划即将收官、"十五五"规划正待开启序幕。近日，2026年全国能源工作会议明确，按照党中 央，国务院部署，"十五五"将实施碳达峰碳中和综合评价考核，各地要将碳双控作为项目评估的重要依 据，调整优化产业结构，推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型。 中国的绿色转型不仅体现在技术与产业层面，更反映在制度与市场的系统性创新上。落基山研究所常务 董事兼北京代表处首席代表李婷认为，中国在绿色转型方面已经完成了系统性改革，尤其是在绿色电力 领域，既吸收了国际经验，也形成了具有自身特色的制度创新。她指出，从五年前启动的绿电跨省直 购，到今年推进的绿电直连，全国统一电力市场框架已逐步成型。中国可再生能源的快速发展，正在成 为推动全社会绿色转型 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a systematic and innovative approach to promote the effective consumption and regulation of renewable energy in China, aligning with national development goals for renewable energy capacity by 2035 [4][9]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Capacity Goals - By the end of 2024, China's total installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to reach 1.4 hundred million kilowatts, achieving the 2030 target ahead of schedule [3]. - The new target for 2035 aims for wind and solar power capacity to exceed six times that of 2020, striving for a total of 3.6 hundred million kilowatts [3]. Group 2: Systematic Mechanism Innovation - The "Guiding Opinions" propose 22 specific measures to enhance renewable energy consumption and regulation, focusing on market mechanisms, technological innovation, and regulatory frameworks [4][9]. - Key areas include categorizing renewable energy development and consumption, promoting new models and innovative business formats for renewable energy consumption, and enhancing the adaptability of the new power system to renewable energy [4]. Group 3: Market Mechanism Expansion - The article discusses the need to expand a multi-level market system for renewable energy consumption, addressing the challenges posed by the volatility and intermittency of renewable energy output [5][6]. - It highlights the importance of shortening trading cycles and developing continuous trading to allow renewable energy companies to manage market risks effectively [5]. Group 4: Integrated Renewable Energy Bases - The "Shagou Desert" and water-solar integrated base model is identified as a key mechanism for sustainable development, allowing for the optimization of various energy sources and enhancing market competitiveness [7][9]. - This model aims to convert the variability of renewable energy into stable and flexible high-quality electricity products, improving the overall efficiency of the power system [8]. Group 5: Local Consumption and Economic Development - The article advocates for local consumption of renewable energy as the most economically viable approach, promoting the development of integrated industrial systems in renewable-rich areas [9]. - It also emphasizes the need for a pricing mechanism that supports local consumption, facilitating the transfer of industries to renewable energy bases and fostering regional economic integration [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic and international energy storage system bidding and shipment volumes, with domestic bidding capacity reaching 47.2 GWh in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2158% and a month-on-month increase of 1142% [1][19] - The new energy storage construction plan for 2025-2027 aims for an annual installed capacity of at least 85 GWh, driving direct project investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [2][32] - The establishment of energy storage as an independent market entity is expected to enhance its role in electricity balancing and pricing [35] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic energy storage system bidding has rapidly increased, with a cumulative bidding volume of 144.1 GWh from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 216% [1][19] - Internationally, Chinese companies secured 199 overseas energy storage orders in the first half of 2025, totaling over 160 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 220.28% [24][27] 2. Market Information Tracking - In September 2025, the average transaction price for electricity in Jiangsu was 319.48 yuan/MWh, down 18.29% from the benchmark price [51] - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region was reported at 675 yuan/ton as of September 10, 2025, reflecting a slight increase [53] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new energy storage-related companies such as Xizi Clean Energy, Lin Yang Energy, and Tongli Risen [2] - In the renewable energy sector, companies like Fuhua Energy and Zhongmin Energy are recommended due to improved cash flow from renewable energy subsidies [13] - For gas companies, China Gas is highlighted as a key player due to its significant residential gas consumption [13] 4. Industry Dynamics - The new energy storage construction plan aims for a cumulative installed capacity of over 180 million kW by 2027, with a focus on lithium-ion battery storage technology [32] - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a reliable capacity compensation mechanism for energy storage to ensure its profitability [35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the photovoltaic industry is experiencing steady policy advancement, with rising prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, and batteries, while the sector remains undervalued [1][2]. Group 2 - The National Energy Administration is promoting the implementation of the "Document 136" to enhance the ability of renewable energy to participate in the market, addressing issues such as irrational competition and power consumption conflicts [2]. - Silicon material prices have continued to rise, with stable long-term transactions and some companies controlling production, leading to price increases [2]. - The average price of polysilicon dense material is 42.0 RMB/kg, up 5.0 RMB/kg; N-type 182 silicon wafers average 1.10 RMB/piece, up 0.10 RMB/piece; PERC battery 182 averages $0.037/W, up $0.003/W [3]. Group 3 - The photovoltaic sector's recent weekly performance shows a 2.61% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.70 percentage points, while the year-to-date performance is a 3.32% increase, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.57 percentage points [4]. - As of July 25, 2025, the TTM overall valuation of the photovoltaic sector is 20.23 times, ranking in the lower middle compared to other sectors [4]. - The valuation trend indicates a continuous decline from the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, with a gradual increase starting in early 2024 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the institutionalization and standardization of green electricity direct connection, highlighting its role in enhancing renewable energy consumption, reducing carbon footprints for export-oriented enterprises, and creating new application scenarios for innovative power entities [2]. Group 1: Project Planning and Construction - Green electricity direct connection enables distributed renewable energy to be used locally, but its decentralized nature may disrupt the load distribution of the larger power grid. Unregulated project construction could lead to mismatched power development timelines and redundant grid investments [3]. - The notification establishes a framework for planning and construction, emphasizing that new loads should be matched with renewable projects, particularly for export-oriented enterprises with carbon reduction needs [3]. Group 2: Investment and Operation Models - There is significant variation in investment and operation models for green electricity direct connection projects across regions, with some areas imposing restrictions that hinder market investment vitality and operational efficiency [4]. - The notification proposes several innovative measures, including removing restrictions on investment entities, allowing various operators to invest in projects, and setting a cap on the proportion of surplus electricity fed back to the grid [4]. Group 3: Safety and Economic Responsibilities - The safety and economic responsibilities of green electricity direct connection projects involve both internal project responsibilities and those related to the public grid. Clear delineation of responsibilities is necessary to manage the risks associated with integrating renewable energy into the grid [5][6]. - The notification clarifies the safety responsibility interface between direct connection projects and the public grid, ensuring that both parties fulfill their respective risk management duties [6]. Group 4: Market and Pricing Mechanisms - Establishing clear market and pricing mechanisms is crucial for the effective integration of green electricity direct connection projects with existing policies and for their broader application [7]. - The notification specifies that these projects should participate in the electricity market on equal terms and outlines the pricing mechanisms, including the payment of various fees related to transmission and distribution [7].