证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 30 日 行业及产业 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《锂电行业跟踪：动力电池和储能电池需求旺 盛，锂电材料价格回升》2025-12-23 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：AI 与数据中 心景气延续，电力设备需求持续高企》 2025-12-22 《光储行业跟踪：11 月光伏组件出口额同比高 增，海外需求持续旺盛》2025-12-22 《SOFC 行业深度：北美数据中心电力短缺， SOFC 迎来快速增长》2025-12-19 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：AI 及数据中 心维持高景气，电力设备需求旺盛》 2025-12-16 证券分析师 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 联系人 11 月国内光伏装机同比增长，双玻组件 价格小幅上涨 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com ——光储行业跟踪 强于大市 投资要点： 排产：1）光伏组件：据 SMM，2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the commencement of the "Shago Desert" clean energy base project in Qinghai, which is the largest approved new energy installation in the country, with a total investment of nearly 73 billion yuan and a planned power capacity of 19.44 million kilowatts [3][42] - The project aims to create a multi-energy complementary structure with over 80% of its capacity coming from renewable sources, including 6 million kilowatts of wind power and 9.6 million kilowatts of solar power [42] - The report suggests focusing on leading new energy companies that have technological and scale advantages due to the certainty of demand created by this project [42] Market Review - As of November 27, 2025, the power equipment sector has seen a decline of 10.21% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.24 percentage points, ranking 31st among 31 sectors [11][13] - Year-to-date, the sector has increased by 38.23%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 23.47 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 sectors [11][13] - The wind power equipment sector fell by 4.29%, solar equipment by 9.98%, grid equipment by 11.12%, motor equipment by 4.56%, battery equipment by 11.20%, and other power equipment by 7.80% in the last two weeks [11][19] Valuation and Industry Data - As of November 27, 2025, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the power equipment sector is 32.19 times [4][24] - Sub-sector PE ratios include: motors at 55.76 times, other power equipment at 52.32 times, solar equipment at 29.60 times, wind equipment at 31.80 times, battery equipment at 32.15 times, and grid equipment at 27.51 times [4][24] Industry News - The report notes the official start of the Qinghai Hainan clean energy base project, which is expected to stabilize power supply and create demand certainty for the domestic new energy industry chain [37][42] - The project will utilize a ±800 kV ultra-high voltage direct current transmission line to deliver power to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [37][42]

Group 1: US Market Overview - US stock market experienced a four-day rally, with the Dow Jones up 0.67%, Nasdaq up 0.82%, and S&P 500 up 0.69% [1] - Notable stock performances include Microsoft up 1.78%, Tesla up 1.71%, Nvidia up 1.37%, while Amazon down 0.22%, Meta down 0.40%, and Google A down 1.08% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a further decline in overall consumer spending in the US in recent weeks [3] Group 3: International Developments - The US special envoy is engaged in negotiations to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, with Trump noting significant progress but no deadline [4] - Japan and the US are considering building a public-private partnership NAND factory in the US [5] - South Korea successfully launched its self-developed carrier rocket "World" [6] Group 4: Domestic Policy and Industry Developments - Six Chinese departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, promoting new business models like live e-commerce and instant retail [8] - The technology sector is showing signs of recovery, which may lead to a continued rebound in market sentiment [9] Group 5: Industry Insights - In the photovoltaic sector, notable performances include Canadian Solar up 8.4% and Daqo New Energy up 3.2%, with polysilicon futures rising nearly 3% to a recent high [10] - The organic silicon industry is seeing price increases of 10-20% for major products starting December 10, with a significant expansion in production capacity expected [11] - The automotive industry is focusing on the integration of vehicle and road cloud systems, with a current vehicle connectivity rate exceeding 85% [11] - The paper industry is experiencing price increases, with packaging paper rising by approximately 50 CNY/ton and cultural paper by 200 CNY/ton [12][14] Group 6: Company Announcements - Tian Shan Aluminum announced the commissioning of its first batch of electrolytic cells for a green low-carbon efficiency enhancement project [16] - Yidong Electronics plans to invest 61.2 million CNY to acquire a 51% stake in Shenzhen Guanding, focusing on AI server liquid cooling products [18] - Industrial Fulian adjusted its share repurchase price limit from 19.36 CNY to 75 CNY per share [18]

Group 1 - The photovoltaic sector of Chinese concept stocks has shown strong performance, with Canadian Solar rising by 8.4% and Daqo New Energy increasing by 3.2% [1] - The main futures of polysilicon have risen nearly 3%, reaching a recent high, indicating a recovery in prices across the photovoltaic supply chain [1] - Since mid-year, the upstream photovoltaic sector has experienced price increases due to factors such as cost price sales guidance and anti-involution effects, with prices of polysilicon dense materials and 182N silicon wafers rising nearly 50% [1] Group 2 - Polysilicon is currently the most prominent segment in terms of overcapacity and losses, but it also has the highest concentration of production capacity, which may facilitate consensus among companies for production control and price support [1] - Several silicon material companies are advancing polysilicon capacity consolidation plans, which, if successful, could fundamentally improve the supply-demand structure of the industry [1] Group 3 - Open Source Securities indicates that the photovoltaic industry has achieved some positive results in combating involution, with a focus on two main lines: supply-side measures such as silicon material storage platforms and production limits, and demand-side factors including the support for photovoltaic installation demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The cancellation of export tax rebates and the enforcement of prohibitions on selling below cost are also critical to the recovery of the supply-demand relationship in the industry, which is expected to drive up component prices [1] Group 4 - Key companies in the silicon material segment include Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, GCL-Poly Energy, and Xinte Energy [1] - Companies involved in BC technology include Aiko Solar, LONGi Green Energy, Dier Laser, and Laplace [1] - Key players in the silicon wafer segment are Hongyuan Green Energy, Shuangliang Eco-Energy, and TCL Zhonghuan [1] - Major battery component manufacturers include JA Solar, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and Junda Co. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth and stability in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, with significant increases in production and demand forecasts for batteries and solar components in China and globally [1][2][3][4]. Production Summary - In November 2025, China's production of power, storage, and consumer batteries is projected to reach 209 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 12.4% and a year-on-year increase of 64.6%, with energy storage cells accounting for approximately 33.6% of the total [1]. - Global production for the same category is expected to be 228 GWh, with a month-on-month growth of 11.2% [1]. - Domestic photovoltaic module production is forecasted to be below 44.5 GW in November, with potential for recovery in production levels if prices rebound [1]. Price Summary - In October 2025, the average bid price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems ranged from 0.43 to 0.7487 CNY/Wh, with an average of 0.5547 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 10% increase month-on-month [2]. - The average price for 4-hour lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems increased by 23.23% month-on-month, while the 2-hour systems saw a decrease of 5.5% [2]. - The price of polysilicon dense material was reported at 52.00 CNY/kg, with a decline in the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers [2]. Demand Summary - In September 2025, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.7 GW, a month-on-month increase of 31.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 53.8% [3]. - The cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity from January to September 2025 reached 240.27 GW, a year-on-year increase of 49.3% [3]. - In September 2025, the export value of photovoltaic components was 2.8 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 39.0% [3]. Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration issued guidelines on promoting the integrated development of renewable energy on November 12, 2025 [4]. - The World Power Battery Conference was held in Yibin, Sichuan, on November 12-13, 2025 [4]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Haibo Si Chuang and CATL to deepen collaboration in the energy storage sector [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on photovoltaic and energy storage-related companies, highlighting significant growth in installed capacity and export values [4]. Recommended companies include: - Sunshine Power (300274.SZ) - Nandu Power (300068.SZ) - Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ) - Huashengchang (002980.SZ) - Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes strong support for the development of the new energy industry, aiming to eliminate barriers to the construction of a unified national market and accelerate the establishment of a new energy system [4][35] - The report highlights the recent performance of the power equipment sector, which has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 46.13% [11][12] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies benefiting from the robust development of new energy storage technologies [40] Market Review - As of October 30, 2025, the power equipment sector has risen by 4.66% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.68 percentage points, ranking 3rd among 31 sectors [11] - The wind power equipment sector decreased by 0.30%, while the photovoltaic equipment sector increased by 5.86% [19] - The top three performing stocks in the power equipment sector over the past two weeks were Fangyuan Co., Tongguan Copper Foil, and Penghui Energy, with increases of 46.23%, 36.88%, and 35.39% respectively [20] Valuation and Industry Data - As of October 30, 2025, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the power equipment sector is 34.61 times, with sub-sectors such as motors and batteries showing higher PE ratios of 62.48 and 35.09 respectively [24] - The report provides detailed valuation metrics for various sub-sectors, indicating significant variations in PE ratios compared to historical averages [24] Industry News - The report discusses the recent publication of the "14th Five-Year Plan" which aims to enhance the supply of new energy and promote the safe and orderly replacement of fossil energy [35] - It notes that in September 2025, the national electricity market transaction volume reached 573.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [35] - The report also highlights the competitive bidding for new energy pricing mechanisms in Chongqing, with a total scale of 4.86 billion kWh for wind and photovoltaic projects [36] Company Announcements - The report includes financial performance updates from several companies, such as Guodian NARI and Mingyang Smart Energy, detailing their net profit changes for the first three quarters of 2025 [38]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) sector in A-shares is experiencing a significant rally, driven by strong market performance and positive earnings reports from key companies [2][3]. Market Performance - On October 29, major indices in the A-share market saw widespread gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.7% to surpass 4000 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.93% [2]. - The photovoltaic equipment index led the gains, with notable stock performances including a 19.97% increase in Arctech (688472.SH) and 10% rises in Tongwei Co. (600438.SH) and Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) [2]. Company Earnings - Sunshine Power (300274.SZ) reported a record high stock price and a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion yuan, with Q3 revenue of 228.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.83%, and a net profit of 41.47 billion yuan, up 57.04% year-on-year [3]. Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality and sustainable development, supported by government policies aimed at reducing low-cost competition and phasing out outdated production capacity [4][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated measures to prevent sales below cost and combat low-price dumping, leading to a recovery in industry prices, such as a 29.7% increase in polysilicon prices from mid-July to early September [4]. Future Outlook - The recent policy suggestions emphasize the importance of the photovoltaic sector in building a new energy system, shifting focus from scale expansion to quality improvement, and enhancing technological and efficiency competition [5]. - The market's recent strong rebound in the photovoltaic sector may indicate a potential recovery signal, although cash flow improvements are still in progress [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][45] Core Viewpoints - As of October 16, 2025, the power equipment industry has seen a decline of 2.84% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.36 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 industries [4][11] - The cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China is expected to reach over 180GW by 2027 and 300GW by 2030, with the industry chain and supply chain output value projected to reach 2-3 trillion yuan by 2030 [34][39] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to maintain strong growth, with a cumulative installed capacity of approximately 730GW/1950GWh by the end of 2030 [34][39] Summary by Sections Market Review - The power equipment sector has increased by 39.62% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 22.25 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [4][11] - The wind power equipment sector increased by 0.07%, the photovoltaic equipment sector by 1.14%, and the grid equipment sector by 5.76% in the last two weeks [16][17] Valuation and Industry Data - As of October 16, 2025, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the power equipment sector is 34.67 times, with sub-sectors showing varying PE ratios: electric motors at 62.87 times, photovoltaic equipment at 26.89 times, and battery sector at 35.51 times [22][23] Industry News - In the first nine months of 2025, China's new energy storage overseas orders totaled 214.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 131.75%, with over 30GWh in September alone [34][39] - The National Energy Administration has emphasized the importance of user-side network security management to prevent power outages caused by user-side issues [34][35] Company Announcements - Several companies reported significant changes in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with notable increases for companies like Jinko Technology and Tongda Co., while others like Shida Shenghua reported substantial losses [36][37] Weekly Perspective on Power Equipment Sector - The report suggests focusing on leading storage companies benefiting from the booming storage industry, emphasizing technological and scale advantages [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the issuance of the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, aiming for a new energy storage capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [5][36] - The electric equipment sector has shown strong performance, with a 28.39% increase year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.81 percentage points [12][18] - The report suggests focusing on leading inverter companies that benefit from the development of new energy storage technologies [40] Market Review - As of September 11, 2025, the electric equipment industry has risen by 11.64% over the past two weeks, ranking first among 31 industries [12] - The wind power equipment sector increased by 0.35%, while the photovoltaic equipment sector rose by 13.34% [18] - The battery sector saw a significant increase of 19.50% in the same period [18] Valuation and Industry Data - The electric equipment sector's PE (TTM) is 31.61 times, with sub-sectors like the motor sector at 61.67 times and photovoltaic equipment at 25.19 times [25] - The report provides detailed valuation metrics for various sub-sectors, indicating a strong market position for electric equipment [25] Industry News - The report discusses the "Electric Equipment Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aimed at improving equipment supply quality and promoting high-quality development of new energy equipment [36] - It also mentions the ongoing efforts to enhance the acceptance and regulation capabilities of the grid for clean energy [36] Company Announcements - The report includes various company announcements, such as the completion of registration procedures by Xidian New Energy in Thailand and significant contract wins by Youxunda [38] Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of the new energy storage plan and its implications for the electric equipment sector, suggesting that companies with advanced technology and scale in inverter production should be closely monitored [39][40]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: North China Innovation's semiconductor equipment business lines continue to show growth, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price raised to RMB 430.00, indicating a potential upside of +13.8% from the closing price of RMB 377.84 [1][2] - 1H25 performance: Revenue reached RMB 16.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, with a gross margin of 42.2%, down 3.6 percentage points. Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.21 billion, up 15.0% year-on-year [1] - Domestic substitution in equipment: Etching equipment revenue exceeded RMB 5 billion in 1H25, with projections of over RMB 8 billion in 2024 and over RMB 11 billion in 2025. Thin film deposition equipment revenue exceeded RMB 6.5 billion in 1H25, with forecasts of over RMB 10 billion in 2024 and over RMB 14 billion in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Core viewpoint: OmniVision's automotive business is growing rapidly, with expectations for new smartphone products next year, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 180.00, indicating a potential upside of +24.0% from the closing price of RMB 145.20 [3][4] - 1H25 performance: Revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were RMB 13.96 billion and RMB 2.03 billion, respectively, both exceeding expectations. The automotive image sensor contributed significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 30% to RMB 3.79 billion [3] - Future growth potential: The company expects to launch a 200-megapixel CIS product in 2026, which may help the smartphone business recover growth [4] Group 3 - Core viewpoint: Alibaba's cloud business exceeded expectations, supporting AI value, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of USD 165.00, indicating a potential upside of +22.2% from the closing price of USD 135.00 [8][9] - 1Q26 performance: Revenue grew by 2% year-on-year, with significant growth in cloud revenue at 26%. Adjusted EBITA decreased by 14% due to increased investment in instant retail [8] - Future outlook: The company anticipates losses in instant retail-related businesses to double quarter-on-quarter, negatively impacting profit margins in the Chinese e-commerce sector [9] Group 4 - Core viewpoint: Kuaishou's differentiated community positioning and focus on AI commercialization are expected to drive growth, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 90.00 [10][12] - 1H25 performance: The company reported significant improvements in monetization rates, with plans to integrate content and advertising for further revenue growth [10] - Long-term growth potential: The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the global video generation market, with AI expected to penetrate USD 20-30 billion in the next 2-3 years [10] Group 5 - Core viewpoint: Weichai Power's performance remains stable, with large-bore engines expected to become a new profit growth point, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 20.50 [18][20] - 1H25 performance: Revenue reached RMB 1131.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.64 billion, down 4.4% year-on-year [18] - Future growth drivers: The company is expected to benefit from subsidies driving demand for heavy trucks and strong growth in data center engines [20] Group 6 - Core viewpoint: Sany's strong performance in 1H25, with a significant increase in gross margin, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 180.50 [21][22] - 1H25 performance: Net profit increased by 81.03% year-on-year to RMB 2.941 billion, with a gross margin of 28.93% [21] - Future growth potential: The company is expected to continue benefiting from high-end model sales and product structure optimization [21] Group 7 - Core viewpoint: China Pacific Insurance's earnings growth remains robust, with a target price raised to HKD 44.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating [30][31] - 1H25 performance: Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.0%, with new business value growing by 32.3% [30] - Future outlook: The company is expected to achieve positive growth in earnings despite a high base from the previous year [31]