Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the steady development of the new energy storage industry in China, with a total installed capacity of 73.76 million kilowatts and 168 million kilowatt-hours by the end of 2024, accounting for over 40% of the global total [40][45] - It emphasizes the importance of leading companies that benefit from the development of new energy storage technologies and scale [45] Market Review - As of July 31, 2025, the electric equipment industry has seen a 0.23% increase over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.79 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 industries [13][14] - The wind power equipment sector increased by 2.46%, while the photovoltaic equipment sector decreased by 1.97% during the same period [17][19] Valuation and Industry Data - The electric equipment sector's PE (TTM) is 25.57 times, with sub-sectors like motors at 50.77 times and photovoltaic equipment at 18.17 times [27][24] - The report provides detailed valuation metrics for various sub-sectors, indicating a range of performance and market expectations [27] Industry News - The National Energy Administration released the "China New Energy Storage Development Report (2025)", summarizing the development of new energy storage from 2021 to 2024 and outlining future prospects [40][45] - The report notes that the new energy storage technology landscape is diverse, supporting the construction of a new power system [40] Company Announcements - The report includes various company announcements, such as科力远's expansion of its energy storage fund to 1.402 billion yuan and新宏泰's shareholder stock freeze [43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, which has led to significant price increases in lithium carbonate and polysilicon, benefiting the photovoltaic and lithium battery supply chains [9][13] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, primarily focusing on external consumption [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes across the photovoltaic supply chain and the impact of new technologies on the industry [15] Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a price increase, with polysilicon dense material prices rising to 49-52 yuan/kg and silicon wafer prices increasing by 7%-10% [13][21] - The National Development and Reform Commission has solicited opinions on the amendment to the Price Law, aiming to regulate low-price dumping and "involution" competition [21] - The cumulative installed capacity of solar power in China has surpassed 1.1 billion kilowatts, with a year-on-year increase of 107% in the first half of 2025 [21] Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is witnessing a sustained increase in demand, with significant projects being initiated in Argentina and China [42][43] - The report notes that the approval process for energy storage projects in Jiangsu has been simplified, which is expected to stimulate growth in the sector [43] - The U.S. energy storage market continues to grow, with a total installed capacity of 5.91 GW in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.2% [49] Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is stable, with a focus on solid-state battery technology and the impact of rising lithium prices on the supply chain [16] - The report recommends companies with stable profit margins and strong market positions, such as CATL and other second-tier players, as potential investment opportunities [16] Wind Power - The domestic offshore wind power sector is accelerating, with expectations for increased profitability as project deliveries ramp up [16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of wind turbine manufacturers and the impact of rising material costs on profitability [16] Power Equipment - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project is expected to have a positive marginal impact on the power equipment sector [16] - The report suggests focusing on high-voltage transmission projects and the potential for new opportunities in power AI and virtual power plants [16] New Directions - The report discusses advancements in humanoid robotics and AI, with companies like Tesla and Google making significant investments in these areas [16] - It highlights the potential for growth in the robotics supply chain and related technologies, recommending companies involved in these sectors [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the photovoltaic industry [1] Core Insights - In June, domestic newly installed photovoltaic capacity saw a significant decline, with 14.36 GW added, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38% and a month-on-month decrease of 85% [10] - The proposed increase in silicon material energy consumption standards may restrict new and expanded production capacity [12] - Continuous production cuts have led to a reduction in photovoltaic glass inventory, shifting from an increase to a decrease [16] - The overall photovoltaic market remains resilient, with expectations for annual new installations to continue growing, projected to reach 270-300 GW domestically and 570-630 GW globally in 2025 [10] Summary by Sections Section 1: June Domestic New Photovoltaic Installations and Energy Standards - The end of the "531" policy's rush for installations has resulted in a significant drop in new installations in June [10] - The average comprehensive energy consumption for polysilicon production is expected to be revised, potentially limiting new capacity expansions [12] Section 2: Market Review - The industry index saw a slight decline of 0.03%, while the electric equipment sector increased by 3.03% [21] - The top-performing stocks in the electric equipment sector included China Power Construction, which rose by 42.13% [25] Section 3: Photovoltaic Industry Chain Prices - The average price for polysilicon dense material was reported at 42.00 RMB/kg, an increase of 13.5% from the previous week [47] - The price for 182-183.75mm monocrystalline N-type silicon wafers was reported at 1.10 RMB/piece, reflecting a 10% increase [47] - Photovoltaic glass prices remained stable, with 3.2mm coated glass priced at 18.0-19.0 RMB/m² [53]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the photovoltaic industry is experiencing steady policy advancement, with rising prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, and batteries, while the sector remains undervalued [1][2]. Group 2 - The National Energy Administration is promoting the implementation of the "Document 136" to enhance the ability of renewable energy to participate in the market, addressing issues such as irrational competition and power consumption conflicts [2]. - Silicon material prices have continued to rise, with stable long-term transactions and some companies controlling production, leading to price increases [2]. - The average price of polysilicon dense material is 42.0 RMB/kg, up 5.0 RMB/kg; N-type 182 silicon wafers average 1.10 RMB/piece, up 0.10 RMB/piece; PERC battery 182 averages $0.037/W, up $0.003/W [3]. Group 3 - The photovoltaic sector's recent weekly performance shows a 2.61% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.70 percentage points, while the year-to-date performance is a 3.32% increase, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.57 percentage points [4]. - As of July 25, 2025, the TTM overall valuation of the photovoltaic sector is 20.23 times, ranking in the lower middle compared to other sectors [4]. - The valuation trend indicates a continuous decline from the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, with a gradual increase starting in early 2024 [4].

Group 1 - The upstream prices in the photovoltaic industry chain continued to rise last week, with multi-crystalline silicon dense material averaging 42,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.5%, and granular silicon averaging 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10% [1] - InfoLink predicts that the price of multi-crystalline silicon dense material may rise to around 50,000 to 52,000 yuan/ton, with a possibility of reaching 55,000 yuan/ton, depending on downstream acceptance [1] - The price gap in silicon materials indicates ongoing negotiations between upstream and downstream players, with the average price aligning more closely with new order prices as previous orders are fulfilled [1] Group 2 - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise last week, with the main contract closing price increasing from 8,745 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.92% [2] - The price increase of silicon materials is being transmitted downstream, with the average transaction price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers rising by 4.76% to 1.1 yuan/piece, 210RN monocrystalline silicon wafers by 8.70% to 1.25 yuan/piece, and 210N monocrystalline silicon wafers by 6.67% to 1.44 yuan/piece [2] - The rapid increase in industrial silicon prices has limited acceptance from downstream sectors, indicating potential challenges in price transmission [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the upstream prices in the photovoltaic industry chain continue to rise, with multi-crystalline silicon dense material prices averaging 42,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.5% [1] - InfoLink observes that the price of multi-crystalline silicon dense material may rise to approximately 50,000-52,000 yuan/ton, with a possibility of reaching 55,000 yuan/ton, depending on downstream acceptance [1] - The price of industrial silicon also increased, with the main contract closing price rising from 8,745 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.92% [2] Group 2 - The average price of silicon wafers has continued to rise, with 183N single crystal wafers averaging 1.1 yuan/piece, up 4.76% week-on-week, and 210N single crystal wafers averaging 1.44 yuan/piece, up 6.67% [2] - The overall operating rate in the industry remains stable, with major integrated companies operating at 50%-80% capacity [3] - Battery cell prices have been adjusted to 0.27 yuan/W, with expectations for further increases to cover cost pressures [4] Group 3 - The price transmission from upstream to downstream has been effective, with the industry chain gradually moving towards covering full costs, with estimated component prices around 0.81 yuan/W after covering all costs [4] - Some silicon wafer manufacturers are refusing to ship orders below current prices, indicating a positive outlook for future price recovery [3] - The overall supply chain dynamics, including the impact of policy adjustments, are influencing price stability and potential increases in the component market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices is primarily driven by macro policy expectations and supply-side adjustments, with prices reaching a new high since listing [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Polysilicon futures for the main PS2508 contract closed at 45,700 yuan/ton, marking a 7.49% increase and a 50.3% rise from the low of 30,400 yuan/ton in late June [1]. - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon was 41,700 yuan/ton, reflecting a 12.4% week-on-week increase, while N-type granular silicon averaged 41,000 yuan/ton, up 15.2% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The implementation of a price cap on polysilicon sales has been a significant factor supporting the recent price increase, although this policy has not yet been confirmed by companies [2]. - There is a notable increase in transaction activity, with six companies achieving new orders and a significant rise in transaction volume compared to the previous week [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the strong policy expectations, the supply-demand dynamics in the polysilicon market have not changed, and there are concerns about potential resistance from downstream sectors to price increases [3]. - Analysts predict that while the price surge may slow down due to weak fundamentals, polysilicon prices are likely to remain elevated due to cost support [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes - The exchange has announced new trading limits for polysilicon futures to mitigate excessive speculation, with a daily opening position limit set at 10,000 lots for non-futures company members [4]. - Adjustments to trading fees for polysilicon futures contracts have also been implemented, effective from July 21, 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the photovoltaic industry, indicating an expectation of high-quality development driven by recent policy changes [1][11][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the need to eliminate "involution" in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the importance of improving product quality and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][11]. - Recent government meetings and discussions among industry leaders suggest a focus on sustainable development and self-regulation within the industry, which is expected to improve supply and demand dynamics, leading to price and profit recovery [2][12]. - The photovoltaic sector is currently experiencing low price levels and profitability, with expectations for a rebound as supply-side policies are implemented [2][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the photovoltaic industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [1][63]. Market Overview - The report notes a 2.82% increase in the comprehensive index and a 1.99% increase in the electric power equipment industry index for the week [13][14]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a significant increase of 5.76% during the same period [17]. Photovoltaic Industry Chain Prices - The average price for polysilicon dense material and granular material remained stable at 35.0 and 34.0 RMB/kg respectively [3][37]. - The average price for monocrystalline N-type silicon wafers (182-183.75mm) decreased by 2.2% to 0.88 RMB/piece [3][37]. - The price for TOPCon battery cells (182-183.75mm) was reported at 0.230 RMB/W, reflecting a decrease of 2.1% [3][37]. - The price for 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass decreased by 2.6% to 18-19 RMB/m² [4][43]. Industry Valuation - As of July 4, the industry PE (TTM) for photovoltaic equipment is reported at 18x, with a valuation percentile of 13.8% [25][33]. - The report indicates that the electric power equipment industry has a PE (TTM) of 26x, with a valuation percentile of 24.9% [25][31].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing positive policy signals aimed at promoting high-quality development and addressing issues of overcapacity and disorderly competition [1] Group 1: Policy Signals - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the exit of backward production capacity and promote high-quality industry development [1] - Leading photovoltaic glass companies have announced a 30% production cut starting in July to alleviate structural pressures in the industry [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held a meeting with key manufacturing enterprises to emphasize product quality and enhance industrial structure efficiency [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The average price of polysilicon dense material remains stable at 35.0 yuan/kg, while N-type 182 and 210 silicon wafer prices decreased by 0.020 yuan/W and 0.050 yuan/W respectively [2] - PERC battery prices remained stable at 0.035 USD/W, while TOPCON battery prices decreased by 0.015 yuan/W [2] - The average price of double-glass HJT components is 0.83 yuan/W, with no significant changes in other component prices [2] Group 3: Market Performance - The photovoltaic sector's performance from June 27 to July 4 showed a 0.79% change, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points [3] - Year-to-date, the photovoltaic sector has a cumulative change of -3.87%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 8.70 percentage points [3] - As of July 4, the TTM overall valuation of the photovoltaic sector is 18.95 times, ranking in the lower middle compared to other sectors [3]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the futures price rebounded while the spot price stabilized, with the basis narrowing significantly. The fundamentals changed little, but the overall sentiment improved recently. The price bottom is easily affected by various news, and the near - month contract has high positions, leading to large short - term fluctuations. Upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the futures price declined, and the spot price was weakly stable. The fundamentals are weak. As the number of warehouse receipts increases, the delivery game weakens, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent increase in warehouse receipts [3][5][10]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 8, 2025, the main contract 2507 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7,245 yuan/ton and closed at 7,475 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2507 was 177,663 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 9 was 60,179 lots, a decrease of 394 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8,400 - 9,000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton. The prices of individual silicon in Xinjiang and Sichuan continued to decline, while those in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Shanghai, and the northwest remained stable, as did the price of 97 silicon [1]. - The DMC price of silicone was 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The weekend quotation of Shandong monomer enterprises decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the bid - winning price dropped to 10,800 yuan/ton. After the price decline, the transaction center of the DMC market decreased [1]. Polysilicon - On June 8, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures opened at 34,620 yuan/ton and closed at 34,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.24% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 64,383 lots (65,179 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 123,726 lots [3][7]. - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [3][7]. - The polysilicon inventory was 26.90 (a 0.37% month - on - month increase), the silicon wafer inventory was 20.02GW (a 7.80% month - on - month increase), the weekly polysilicon output was 22,000 tons (a 1.85% month - on - month increase), and the silicon wafer output was 13.04GW (a 2.67% month - on - month decrease) [3][4][7]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.92 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.28 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 yuan/piece [4][7]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4][8][9]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W (an increase of 0.01 yuan/W), and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W (an increase of 0.01 yuan/W) [4][9]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Futures - spot: None. - Options: None [2]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Futures - spot: None. - Options: None [5][8][10].