证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 03 月 02 日 相关研究 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：海外主要云 厂商资本开支持续增长，DRAM 价格小幅回落》 2026-02-09 《光储行业跟踪：全国性储能容量电价机制出 台，储能系统价格持续上涨》2026-02-09 《锂电行业跟踪：碳酸锂价格下行，储能电芯 均价上行》2026-02-09 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：甲骨文资本 开支环比高增，DRAM 价格小幅回落》 2026-02-03 《锂电行业跟踪：碳酸锂价格下跌，储能电芯 均价持续上涨》2026-02-03 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 联系人 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com 行业及产业 1 月国内新型储能新增投运装机规模同 比高增，TOPCon 双玻组件价格稳定 ——光储行业跟踪 强于大市 投资要点： 排产：1）光伏组件：据 InfoLin ...

装备制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 2 日 [T分析师： able_Author 赵晓闯] 执业证书号：S1030511010004 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：zhaoxc@csco.com.cn 分析师：杨贵洲 执业证书号：S1030524060001 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：yanggz1@csco.com.cn 研究助理：董李延楠 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：donglyn@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] 证券研究报告 光伏产业链上下游分化 [Table_ReportType]装备制造行业周报（2 月第 4 周） [Table_S 市场行情回顾 ummary] ： 春节前后两周 9 个交易日机械设备、电力设备及汽车行业指 数涨跌幅分别为+6.86%、+3.04%及+2.36%，在 31 个申万一级 行业中排名分别为第 11、16、17 位；同期沪深 300 涨跌幅为 +1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a decline in production and demand, with significant decreases expected in December 2025, influenced by export tax policies and market conditions [1][2]. Production - PV module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% compared to October, with a further expected decline of 14.77% in December [2]. - Battery production for January 2026 is projected at 210 GWh in China, down 4.55% month-on-month, with significant reductions in second-tier companies, while energy storage battery production remains stable or slightly increases [2]. Prices - As of January 14, 2026, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while TOPCon dual-glass module prices increased by approximately 1.43% to 0.71 CNY/W [3]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 was 0.5721 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 6.4% decrease [3]. Demand - In November 2025, the export value of PV modules was approximately $2.412 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [4]. - Domestic PV installations in November 2025 reached 22.02 GW, a 74.76% increase month-on-month but an 11.92% decrease year-on-year [4]. Investment Recommendations - The expected cancellation of the export tax rebate for certain products in April 2026 may temporarily boost domestic PV product shipments, while also promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity [5]. - Companies to watch include Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Narada Power Source (300068.SZ), Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ), Huashengchang (002980.SZ), and Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [2][38]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the demand for photovoltaic components, with exports reaching approximately $2.412 billion in November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [2]. - The report anticipates a short-term boost in domestic photovoltaic product shipments due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate starting April 2026, which may lead to the optimization of production capacity in the long term [2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies related to energy storage and photovoltaic sectors, specifically mentioning Yangguang Electric (300274.SZ), Nandu Power (300068.SZ), Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ), Huashengchang (002980.SZ), and Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [2]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the overall production of photovoltaic components decreased by 2.43% compared to October, with a forecasted further decline of 14.77% in December due to returning to a period of weak terminal demand [2]. - The production forecast for January 2026 indicates a total of 210 GWh for the Chinese market in power, storage, and consumer batteries, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.55% [2]. Prices - As of January 14, 2026, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of TOPCon double-glass components increased by approximately 1.43% to 0.71 CNY/W [2][11]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 was 0.5721 CNY/Wh, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.4% [2]. Domestic Demand - The domestic photovoltaic installation capacity in November 2025 was 22.02 GW, showing a month-on-month increase of 74.76% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.92% [2]. - Cumulative new photovoltaic installations from January to November 2025 reached 274.89 GW, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.25% [2]. Overseas Demand - The report notes that the export value of photovoltaic inverters in November 2025 was $767 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.91% and a month-on-month increase of 13.29% [2]. - The report indicates that the export of photovoltaic components to Australia saw a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 177%, suggesting new growth opportunities in emerging markets [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Insights - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the State Grid Corporation of China is expected to invest 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, to drive high-quality development of the new power system supply chain [39][43] - The report highlights the focus on green transformation and the establishment of a new energy system, aiming for a 25% share of non-fossil energy consumption and 35% of electricity in final energy consumption by 2025 [39][43] - The electric equipment sector has shown strong performance, with the wind power equipment sector rising by 17.61% and the grid equipment sector by 11.91% in the last two weeks [16][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 15, 2026, the electric equipment industry has increased by 5.06%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.43 percentage points, ranking 12th among 31 industries [11] - The wind power equipment sector has seen a significant increase of 17.61%, while the battery sector has only increased by 0.96% [16][17] Valuation and Industry Data - The electric equipment sector's PE (TTM) is 34.83 times, with sub-sectors like electric motors at 61.47 times and photovoltaic equipment at 31.57 times [23][24] - The report provides a detailed valuation comparison, indicating that the current valuation is above the one-year average for most sub-sectors [24] Industry News - The report discusses the expected investment by the State Grid Corporation and its implications for the electric equipment industry, emphasizing the importance of technological advancements and leading companies in the sector [39][43] - It also mentions the ongoing trends in the photovoltaic market, including price stability and the cautious outlook from upstream and downstream companies [39] Company Announcements - The report includes various company announcements, such as share reductions by major stakeholders and financial forecasts indicating potential losses for some companies [42]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in demand for photovoltaic components, with a notable year-on-year growth in domestic installations and exports [3][4]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to impact pricing and demand dynamics in the industry starting April 2026 [3]. - The report suggests a focus on energy storage-related companies as potential investment opportunities due to the increasing demand in the sector [3]. Production Summary - Photovoltaic module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% month-on-month, with domestic inventory levels rising as terminal installations fell short of expectations [3]. - Battery production for January 2026 is projected at 210 GWh, a decrease of 4.55% from the previous month, primarily driven by a reduction in production from second-tier companies [3]. Price Summary - As of January 7, 2026, the price of polysilicon increased by 3.85% to 54.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers rose by 12.00% to 1.40 CNY/piece [3]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems was reported at 0.5721 CNY/Wh, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.4% [3]. Domestic Demand Summary - In November 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations reached 22.02 GW, marking a 74.76% increase month-on-month but an 11.92% decrease year-on-year [3]. - Cumulative domestic photovoltaic installations from January to November 2025 totaled 274.89 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.25% [3]. Overseas Demand Summary - In November 2025, photovoltaic component exports amounted to approximately 2.412 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 34.08% [3]. - The inverter export value for November 2025 was 767 million USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.91% [3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Strong Buy" rating for the solar and energy storage sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on current trends and demand forecasts [2][39]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic solar installation capacity in November 2025 reached 22.02 GW, representing a month-on-month increase of 74.76% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.92% [2][3]. - The export value of solar modules in November 2025 was approximately $2.412 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for energy storage systems, with the average price of lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 ranging from 0.4452 to 0.6828 CNY/Wh, with an average price of 0.5721 CNY/Wh [2][3]. Summary by Sections Production - Solar module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% compared to October, while battery production for January 2026 is projected to be 210 GWh, a decrease of 4.55% month-on-month [2][3]. Pricing - As of December 24, 2025, the price of multi-crystalline silicon remained stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers increased by 5.93% to 1.25 CNY/piece [2][3]. Domestic Demand - The cumulative newly installed solar capacity from January to November 2025 reached 274.89 GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.25% [2][3]. Overseas Demand - The report notes that the export value of inverters in November 2025 was $767 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.91% and a month-on-month increase of 13.29% [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the commencement of the "Shago Desert" clean energy base project in Qinghai, which is the largest approved new energy installation in the country, with a total investment of nearly 73 billion yuan and a planned power capacity of 19.44 million kilowatts [3][42] - The project aims to create a multi-energy complementary structure with over 80% of its capacity coming from renewable sources, including 6 million kilowatts of wind power and 9.6 million kilowatts of solar power [42] - The report suggests focusing on leading new energy companies that have technological and scale advantages due to the certainty of demand created by this project [42] Market Review - As of November 27, 2025, the power equipment sector has seen a decline of 10.21% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.24 percentage points, ranking 31st among 31 sectors [11][13] - Year-to-date, the sector has increased by 38.23%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 23.47 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 sectors [11][13] - The wind power equipment sector fell by 4.29%, solar equipment by 9.98%, grid equipment by 11.12%, motor equipment by 4.56%, battery equipment by 11.20%, and other power equipment by 7.80% in the last two weeks [11][19] Valuation and Industry Data - As of November 27, 2025, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the power equipment sector is 32.19 times [4][24] - Sub-sector PE ratios include: motors at 55.76 times, other power equipment at 52.32 times, solar equipment at 29.60 times, wind equipment at 31.80 times, battery equipment at 32.15 times, and grid equipment at 27.51 times [4][24] Industry News - The report notes the official start of the Qinghai Hainan clean energy base project, which is expected to stabilize power supply and create demand certainty for the domestic new energy industry chain [37][42] - The project will utilize a ±800 kV ultra-high voltage direct current transmission line to deliver power to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [37][42]

Group 1: US Market Overview - US stock market experienced a four-day rally, with the Dow Jones up 0.67%, Nasdaq up 0.82%, and S&P 500 up 0.69% [1] - Notable stock performances include Microsoft up 1.78%, Tesla up 1.71%, Nvidia up 1.37%, while Amazon down 0.22%, Meta down 0.40%, and Google A down 1.08% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a further decline in overall consumer spending in the US in recent weeks [3] Group 3: International Developments - The US special envoy is engaged in negotiations to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, with Trump noting significant progress but no deadline [4] - Japan and the US are considering building a public-private partnership NAND factory in the US [5] - South Korea successfully launched its self-developed carrier rocket "World" [6] Group 4: Domestic Policy and Industry Developments - Six Chinese departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, promoting new business models like live e-commerce and instant retail [8] - The technology sector is showing signs of recovery, which may lead to a continued rebound in market sentiment [9] Group 5: Industry Insights - In the photovoltaic sector, notable performances include Canadian Solar up 8.4% and Daqo New Energy up 3.2%, with polysilicon futures rising nearly 3% to a recent high [10] - The organic silicon industry is seeing price increases of 10-20% for major products starting December 10, with a significant expansion in production capacity expected [11] - The automotive industry is focusing on the integration of vehicle and road cloud systems, with a current vehicle connectivity rate exceeding 85% [11] - The paper industry is experiencing price increases, with packaging paper rising by approximately 50 CNY/ton and cultural paper by 200 CNY/ton [12][14] Group 6: Company Announcements - Tian Shan Aluminum announced the commissioning of its first batch of electrolytic cells for a green low-carbon efficiency enhancement project [16] - Yidong Electronics plans to invest 61.2 million CNY to acquire a 51% stake in Shenzhen Guanding, focusing on AI server liquid cooling products [18] - Industrial Fulian adjusted its share repurchase price limit from 19.36 CNY to 75 CNY per share [18]

Group 1 - The photovoltaic sector of Chinese concept stocks has shown strong performance, with Canadian Solar rising by 8.4% and Daqo New Energy increasing by 3.2% [1] - The main futures of polysilicon have risen nearly 3%, reaching a recent high, indicating a recovery in prices across the photovoltaic supply chain [1] - Since mid-year, the upstream photovoltaic sector has experienced price increases due to factors such as cost price sales guidance and anti-involution effects, with prices of polysilicon dense materials and 182N silicon wafers rising nearly 50% [1] Group 2 - Polysilicon is currently the most prominent segment in terms of overcapacity and losses, but it also has the highest concentration of production capacity, which may facilitate consensus among companies for production control and price support [1] - Several silicon material companies are advancing polysilicon capacity consolidation plans, which, if successful, could fundamentally improve the supply-demand structure of the industry [1] Group 3 - Open Source Securities indicates that the photovoltaic industry has achieved some positive results in combating involution, with a focus on two main lines: supply-side measures such as silicon material storage platforms and production limits, and demand-side factors including the support for photovoltaic installation demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The cancellation of export tax rebates and the enforcement of prohibitions on selling below cost are also critical to the recovery of the supply-demand relationship in the industry, which is expected to drive up component prices [1] Group 4 - Key companies in the silicon material segment include Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, GCL-Poly Energy, and Xinte Energy [1] - Companies involved in BC technology include Aiko Solar, LONGi Green Energy, Dier Laser, and Laplace [1] - Key players in the silicon wafer segment are Hongyuan Green Energy, Shuangliang Eco-Energy, and TCL Zhonghuan [1] - Major battery component manufacturers include JA Solar, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and Junda Co. [1]