本周核心观点：1）高载重与可回收推动火箭发射降本，推进剂、发射特气需求刚性，价值量与价值占 比长期提升。火箭发射经济性成为未来火箭发射向高密度、标准化转型的重要因素。火箭发射降本路线 清晰，高载重和可回收成为核心途径，液态甲烷作为推进剂优势凸显，占比提升。在高载重与可重复使 用背景下，推进剂特气需求与发射次数高度相关且成本占比提升。可重复使用技术显著压缩了制造成本 在单次发射中的占比，但并未降低推进剂消耗，回收过程甚至需要额外燃料储备。基于当前时点，我们 测算猎鹰9 号单次发射推进剂与特气需求合计成本约80 万美元，根据《"猎鹰"9 火箭的发射成本与价格 策略分析》（2022），考虑火箭可回收，火箭成本从5000 万美元下降至1500 万美元，推进剂与特气需 求刚性保持单次80 万美元，单次发射成本占比从1.6%提升至5.3%。推进剂与特气需求逐步成为最稳 定、最可预测的价值环节。重点推荐九丰能源，深度卡位商业航天特燃特气供应，打造九丰航天特气专 业品牌，航天特燃特气供应价值量与份额长期提升。2）全国冬季用电负荷首破14 亿千瓦。2026 年全国 用电负荷三创冬季新高，冬季负荷首次突破14 亿千瓦，最高达14 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - Jiangsu and Guangdong have released the 2026 electricity market trading notice, outlining annual trading arrangements [4] - The approval of the Panzhihua ultra-high voltage AC project aims to meet the power transmission needs of the clean energy base in Panzhihua and optimize the 500 kV grid structure in southern Sichuan [4] - The total investment for the Panzhihua project is approximately 2.32 billion yuan, with 20% funded by the State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company [4] Industry Data Tracking - **Electricity Price**: The national average grid purchase price in November 2025 decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 2.8% month-on-month, averaging 401 yuan/MWh [34] - **Coal Price**: As of December 5, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 785 yuan/ton, down 3.33% year-on-year and 3.80% week-on-week [42] - **Water Conditions**: As of December 5, 2025, the Three Gorges Reservoir water level was 172.84 meters, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 3.1% and 12.23% year-on-year, respectively [50] - **Electricity Consumption**: Total electricity consumption from January to October 2025 reached 8.62 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [12] - **Power Generation**: Cumulative power generation from January to October 2025 was 8.06 trillion kWh, up 2.3% year-on-year [20] - **Installed Capacity**: New installed capacity from January to September 2025 included 5.668 million kW of thermal power (up 69.5% year-on-year) and 24.027 million kW of solar power (up 49.3% year-on-year) [4] Investment Recommendations - **Green Power**: Focus on companies like Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and Three Gorges Energy, with a strong recommendation for Longjing Environmental Protection [4] - **Thermal Power**: Explore reliability and flexibility value in companies like Huaneng International and Huadian International [4] - **Hydropower**: Recommend Changjiang Power due to low costs and strong cash flow [4] - **Nuclear Power**: Highlight China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power for their growth potential and dividend increases [4] - **Solar Assets and Charging Stations**: Suggest companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Group for potential value reassessment [4]