国盛证券认为，1）2025年各地年度长协电价不同程度调降，火电明年容量电价将全面提升，绿电经历 全面市场化后电价风险逐步释出，"反内卷"明确"稳电价"，电价下行最大压力时期即将过去。2）火电 三季度业绩持续向上，煤价反弹"稳电价"预期提升。3）水电秋汛来水改善，叠加风格切换，重视配 置。4）储能政策频出，容量补偿机制尚有完善空间，重视调节性电源价值，叠加三季度业绩催化预 期。 国家能源局局长王宏志12月15日说，2025年，全国发电总装机超过38亿千瓦，同比增长14%；预计年度 全社会用电量首超10万亿千瓦时，经济社会发展用电需求得到有力保障。当日，2026年全国能源工作会 议在北京举行。王宏志是在会上公布上述数据的。 信达证券认为，电改持续深化，稀缺稳定价值凸显，资产整合或存投资机遇。煤电正步入大规模投运 潮，叠加用电需求疲弱电力电量供需格局转宽松。电力供需格局宽松是2022—2024年现货市场价格下行 的直接原因，而其后又隐含能源价格回落和新能源装机持续高增两点因素。当前我国电力交易结构依然 以中长期交易为主，而现货价格波动对中长期交易撮合谈判存在引导。此外，"年度-月度-现货"的电量 占比格局跟随电力供 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the stability of electricity prices in 2026, with a controlled decline expected due to the recovery of coal prices and the increase in capacity electricity prices [1] - The report highlights the need to focus on the growth of hydropower installations in the short term, given the regional water supply differentiation [1] - The report indicates that the gas sector is expected to see a loosening of global LNG supply, which will likely lower price levels and stimulate demand [1] Industry Overview - The public utility sector has seen an overall increase in 2025, with the public utility sector rising by 3.61% and the environmental sector by 16.05% as of December 13, 2025 [6][12] - The electricity sector has experienced a cumulative increase of 2.73%, while the gas sector has risen by 13.30%, indicating a mixed performance across sub-sectors [12] Electricity Sector Analysis - **Thermal Power**: The report notes that coal prices have stabilized and are expected to lead to a controllable decline in electricity prices in 2026. The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 820 RMB/ton as of November 27, 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7% [6][81] - **Hydropower**: The report identifies a regional differentiation in water supply, with significant growth potential in hydropower installations in areas like the Jinsha and Dadu rivers, which are expected to contribute positively to performance [6][31] - **Renewable Energy**: The report highlights that the short-term electricity prices and consumption capacity for renewable energy are under pressure, with 29 provinces having implemented the 136 document, leading to increased competition and pricing challenges [6][44] - **Nuclear Power**: The report indicates that the marketization of nuclear power is increasing, with a stable growth outlook due to the commissioning of new units, despite some pressure from market price fluctuations [6][66] Gas Sector Analysis - The report discusses the global LNG supply, which is projected to increase significantly, with 239 million tons/year of LNG capacity under construction as of October 2025. This is expected to exert downward pressure on gas prices, thereby stimulating demand recovery [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying gas sources to ensure stable profitability for gas companies amid geopolitical risks and price fluctuations [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong growth potential in hydropower and stable profitability in thermal power, such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International, which offers a dividend yield exceeding 7% [7] - In the gas sector, it suggests focusing on companies that are actively developing coal-to-gas projects and those with significant commercial user bases, such as Jiufeng Energy and Kunlun Energy, which are expected to benefit from demand growth as gas prices decline [7]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 江苏广东发布 2026 年电力市场交易通知，攀 西特高压交流工程核准 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：需求不及预期、电价煤价波动风险、流域来水不及预期等 2025 年 12 月 09 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/12/9 2025/4/9 2025/8/8 2025/12/7 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《降温持续美国气价上涨、库存提取 欧洲气价下行》 2025-12-08 《输配电成本监审和定价办法修订， 采暖季最高用电负荷预计创供暖季历 史新高》 2025-12-02 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：1）江苏广东发布 2026 年电力市场交易通知。近 ...

Group 1: Power Industry Insights - The power industry is expected to stabilize as electricity reform accelerates, with a focus on the profitability of thermal power, quality wind power, and opportunities for power equipment exports [6][12] - From January to November 2025, electricity demand in China maintained steady growth, with total electricity consumption reaching 8.62 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [6] - The price of thermal coal has rebounded since July 2025, which is anticipated to stabilize electricity prices, with the average monthly trading price in Jiangsu reaching 395.60 RMB/MWh, an increase of 82.80 RMB/MWh [7] Group 2: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Hydropower companies have shown stable operations, with net interest margins widening in a low-interest-rate environment, making them attractive for long-term investment [8] - The marketization ratio of nuclear power is gradually increasing, with the marketable electricity volume for Lingao and Yangjiang nuclear power plants expected to rise by 14.3% in 2026 [9] Group 3: Green Energy and Equipment - The income policies for green energy have become clearer, with market reforms entering a deeper phase, and the wind power tax subsidy is expected to decline [10] - Investment in domestic power equipment has shown significant growth, with cumulative procurement for the State Grid's transmission and transformation equipment reaching 787.47 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [11] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Sector - Iwubio - Iwubio is a leading company in the desensitization treatment field, with a strong market position in dust mite drops and a new growth point in the yellow flower pollen sublingual drops [14][15] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 399 million RMB, 493 million RMB, and 600 million RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 41.0, 33.3, and 27.3 times [14] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector - Aladdin - Aladdin has demonstrated significant synergy from external mergers and acquisitions, with revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 440 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.59% [18] - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 110 million RMB, 160 million RMB, and 200 million RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.33, 0.48, and 0.60 RMB [18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows resilience with the ChiNext New Energy ETF experiencing significant inflows and price increases, driven by strong demand in the lithium battery supply chain and favorable market conditions for renewable energy sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices opened lower but turned positive during the session, with the ChiNext New Energy ETF (159368) rising by 0.70% [1]. - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159368) recorded a net inflow of over 21 million yuan in the past five days, with a trading volume of 30.67 million yuan, leading its category [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Companies in the lithium battery supply chain, such as Penghui Energy, Tianji Shares, and Dangsheng Materials, reported full production and sales [1]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 91,960 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 21.9%, with prices for hexafluorophosphate lithium and mainstream lithium iron phosphate cells also rising [1]. - Haibosi Chuang and CATL signed a ten-year procurement agreement for no less than 200 GWh from 2026 to 2028, indicating a clear long-term optimistic outlook for the industry [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Jiangsu Securities anticipates sustained demand for global energy storage and power equipment, with tight lithium supply and ongoing developments in wind and solar energy sectors [2]. - Key focus areas include: 1. Overseas expansion driven by AI-related electricity shortages in the U.S., maintaining strong export growth from China [2]. 2. Anticipated growth in bidding and project initiation for ultra-high voltage and main grid projects by 2025 [2]. 3. Potential for AI applications and computational power demands in power digitization [2]. 4. A new cycle for electric meters expected to see both volume and price increases by 2026 [2]. 5. Emphasis on the turning point in electricity reform-related distribution and usage sectors [2]. Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159368) is the largest ETF tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, covering various segments of the new energy and electric vehicle industries, including batteries and photovoltaics [2]. - It has the highest elasticity with a potential increase of up to 20%, and the lowest fees, with a total management and custody fee of only 0.2% [2]. - As of October 31, 2025, the fund's size reached 829 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 90.05 million yuan over the past month [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the upcoming electricity market reforms starting in 2026, which will allow electricity prices to more accurately reflect supply and demand dynamics, potentially increasing the profitability of adjustable resources like pumped storage and new energy storage [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The introduction of a two-part electricity pricing mechanism under document "633" will impact the profitability of pumped storage, with the net present value (NPV) of projects closely tied to capacity prices [2] - For projects with a unit cost of 6.5 yuan/watt, if the capacity price is below 500 yuan/kilowatt-hour, the project's DCF value is negative; at 550 yuan/kilowatt-hour, the NPV ranges from 1.2 to 1.8 yuan/watt, translating to a value of 15-22 billion yuan for a typical 1.2 million kilowatt project [2] Group 2: Capacity and Growth Projections - The company has 10.8 million kilowatts of pumped storage capacity under construction, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% for the period 2025-2029 [3] - The company has significant potential for additional pumped storage projects, with at least 25.8 million kilowatts still in the early stages of development [3] Group 3: Valuation and Profitability - The company's total valuation for all hydropower stations is estimated between 38 billion to 64.5 billion yuan, with specific valuations of 18-20 billion yuan for existing pumped storage and 13.6-38 billion yuan for projects under construction [4] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards by 10%, 11%, and 13% respectively, reflecting a recovery in the utilization hours of peak-shaving hydropower [5]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the electricity industry is expected to stabilize as the power supply-demand structure shifts to a "wide electricity volume, tight power" scenario during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][28] - The overall performance of the dividend style sector has been poor, with electricity demand showing steady growth [3][12] Industry Review - The dividend style sector has underperformed, with the public utility sector and electricity industry lagging behind the CSI 300 index [12] - From Q1 to Q3 of 2025, China's total electricity consumption reached 7.77 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [3][18] - The supply-demand structure is expected to remain tight, with comprehensive electricity prices likely to stabilize [28] Electricity Sector - Coal prices have bottomed out and are expected to stabilize electricity prices; from July 2025, coal prices began to rebound, with the Jiangsu electricity market clearing price reaching 395.60 yuan/MWh, an increase of 82.80 yuan/MWh [4][42] - Hydropower remains stable with long-term investment value in a low-interest-rate environment; the net interest margin for hydropower has widened by 69 basis points compared to the previous year [4] - Nuclear power's marketization ratio is gradually increasing, with minimal impact from fluctuations in natural uranium prices [4] - Green electricity policies are becoming clearer, with market reforms entering a deeper phase [5] Grid Equipment - Investment in domestic grid equipment has shown a significant increase, with cumulative bidding amounts reaching 681.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [6] - The export value of primary equipment has also maintained high growth, with liquid medium transformers and high-voltage switches seeing substantial increases [6] Beneficiary Targets - Beneficiary stocks include: - Thermal Power: Huaneng International, Huadian International, China Resources Power, Datang Power, and others [7] - Hydropower: Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and others [7] - Nuclear Power: China National Nuclear Power, China General Nuclear Power, and others [7] - Green Power: Longyuan Power, China Power, and others [7] - Grid Equipment: Pinggao Electric, XJ Electric, and others [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Haitong International has given a "better than market" rating to Yuanguang Software (002063.SZ) based on its strong performance in the electric energy sector and ongoing digital transformation efforts [1][1][1] Group 2 - The electric energy industry is showing accumulated advantages, with the "four driving forces" contributing to performance growth [1] - Policy support is driving the development of the trust-based EPR, and the company is continuously advancing its digital transformation [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company, as a leader in power information technology, is positioned to capitalize on multiple opportunities arising from the "dual carbon + electricity reform" initiatives and the expansion of the domestic EPR market, with expected performance growth surpassing forecasts [1][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 27.39 billion, 31.66 billion, and 37.48 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.19, 0.22, and 0.29 RMB [3][4]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 14.2%, 15.6%, and 18.4% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][4]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company has a 40-year history in providing information technology products and services to the energy sector, which has led to significant competitive advantages [19][22]. - The focus on digital transformation in large enterprises is expected to drive growth, particularly in the context of the national push for a unified electricity market system by 2030 [26][29]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The report outlines a detailed revenue breakdown by business segment, with expected growth rates for Group Management, Data Services, Artificial Intelligence, and Smart Energy businesses ranging from 10% to 25% from 2025 to 2027 [9][10][11][12][14]. - The overall gross margin is projected to stabilize around 57% during the forecast period [14]. Valuation Analysis - The company is valued using both PE and PS methods, with a target price of 8.49 RMB per share based on a 2025 PE of 45, resulting in a reasonable valuation of 161.69 billion RMB [4][19]. - The average PE of comparable companies is noted to be 43.22, indicating a strong market position for the company [16][17]. Technological Innovation and R&D - The company emphasizes R&D, with a consistent investment rate exceeding 24% of revenue over the past five years, ensuring continuous technological advancement and innovation [39][42]. - The focus on AI and digital technologies is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support the digital transformation of clients [39][42]. Policy and Market Trends - The report highlights the supportive policy environment for domestic EPR development, which is expected to accelerate the company's digital transformation efforts [43][44]. - The ongoing national initiatives for information technology innovation and domestic substitution are anticipated to bolster market confidence and expand the company's operational scope [44].

Core Insights - The national electricity market transaction volume reached 655 billion kWh in August 2025, marking an 11.6% year-on-year increase [1] - The electricity market reform is expected to lead to a slight increase in electricity prices, with a focus on promoting the spot market and ancillary services [1] - The coal power sector is anticipated to maintain a stable cost structure due to improved long-term coal supply agreements [1] Group 1: Electricity Market Performance - The provincial electricity transaction volume was 485.9 billion kWh, up 11.0% year-on-year [1] - Cross-provincial and cross-regional transactions amounted to 169.1 billion kWh, reflecting a 13.4% increase [1] - The long-term transaction volume was 624.9 billion kWh, while spot transactions reached 30.2 billion kWh, and green electricity transactions totaled 24.9 billion kWh, with a significant 47.2% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2: Sector Outlook - The coal power sector's peak value is highlighted amid tight supply-demand dynamics [1] - The continuous advancement of electricity market reforms is expected to enhance the investment value in the electricity sector [2] - The demand for electricity is improving due to the peak usage season, and the capacity compensation mechanism has room for enhancement [2]