拼多多 20251222 摘要 拼多多估值极具吸引力，2025 年市盈率低于 8 倍，2026 年或低于 7 倍， 远低于电商行业平均水平，管理层加大投入推动增长，提升了低估值的 吸引力。 拼多多国内市场依赖原厂电商业务，GMV 增速保持在 10%-15%，核心 竞争力在于低价和消费者体验，受经济环境影响较小，国家对 3C 类目 补贴政策影响有限。 拼多多跨境电商平台 Temu 迅速扩张至欧美、拉美、东南亚等地，欧美 市场贡献超 60%GMV，但面临地缘政治风险和关税问题，通过调整物 流模式降低关税风险，海外业务增速仍保持 20%以上。 美国合规问题借鉴 TikTok 经验，通过数据本地化解决，关税问题通过 半托管模式提高时效性并降低风险，预计今年 Temu 的 GMV 将达到 750 亿美元，同比增长约 25%。 国内电商投流抵扣政策对拼多多影响有限，但平台代替商家报税的新规 增加了平台责任，拼多多已采取措施维护商家生态，并推出减免和补贴 措施应对合规成本。 Q&A 拼多多近期在管理层和公司战略上有哪些重要变化？ 拼多多在最近的股东大会上进行了高管任命，赵佳臻被提升为联席董事长。此 外，管理层对公司未来前景 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance shows significant improvement, with expectations for enhanced profitability in the second half of the year [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 447.72 billion CNY, 498.03 billion CNY, and 540.14 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a more favorable competitive landscape [3][9] - The target price for the company is set at 175.06 USD per ADS, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation of 248.5 billion USD [3][10] Financial Information Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 247.64 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 90% [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 112.66 billion CNY, with a slight increase in growth rate expected in subsequent years [4] - The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit of 32.71 billion CNY in Q2 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations [8][9] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a Non-GAAP net profit of 1,220 billion CNY, 1,469 billion CNY, and 1,612 billion CNY for 2025-2027 [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 59.9% in 2025, with net profit margins expected to be 25.2% [4][9] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of August 27, 2025, was 123.02 USD, with a 52-week high of 155.67 USD and a low of 87.11 USD [5] - The company has shown strong relative performance over various time frames, including a 28.27% increase over the past year [6]