电商盈利预测

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拼多多(PDD):25Q2季报点评:Q2业绩明显改善,看好下半年盈利能力提升
Orient Securities· 2025-08-29 02:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance shows significant improvement, with expectations for enhanced profitability in the second half of the year [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 447.72 billion CNY, 498.03 billion CNY, and 540.14 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a more favorable competitive landscape [3][9] - The target price for the company is set at 175.06 USD per ADS, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation of 248.5 billion USD [3][10] Financial Information Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 247.64 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 90% [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 112.66 billion CNY, with a slight increase in growth rate expected in subsequent years [4] - The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit of 32.71 billion CNY in Q2 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations [8][9] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a Non-GAAP net profit of 1,220 billion CNY, 1,469 billion CNY, and 1,612 billion CNY for 2025-2027 [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 59.9% in 2025, with net profit margins expected to be 25.2% [4][9] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of August 27, 2025, was 123.02 USD, with a 52-week high of 155.67 USD and a low of 87.11 USD [5] - The company has shown strong relative performance over various time frames, including a 28.27% increase over the past year [6]