当其他巨头在即时零售和AI通用大模型上大手笔烧钱时，拼多多正在深耕其核心电商生态和海外扩 张。 撰文丨艾川 这个夏天，几大平台的"闪购大战"将价格内卷推向极致。除了一些薅羊毛党的沾沾自喜之外，只剩下一 地鸡毛。 电商市场乃至平台经济，除了内卷之外，难道就没有其他的增长路径吗？ 在闪购大战与AI大战的喧嚣声中，拼多多最近发布了一条并未引发太大舆论回响的消息："多多买菜"已 在全国70%的行政村布局超200万个自提点。 在部分舆论及投资者看来，农业电商实在是一个过于不性感的老旧故事，更像是一个口号。 他人嘲笑的，恰恰是拼多多自豪的。 与任何互联网电商不一样的是，农业是写进拼多多基因的。 拼多多本就是以农产品零售平台起家，开创了以拼为特色的农产品零售的新模式，逐步发展成为以农副 产品为鲜明特色的全品类综合性电商平台。 也就是说，农业之于拼多多，不是一个慈善口号，更不仅仅是所谓的CSR（企业社会责任），从一开始 就深深缀入电商业务本身，沿着商业逻辑做自然延伸。 农业是情怀，更是业务本身。 某种意义上，这正是一种"把虚做实"。 这几年，拼多多跑通了一条"农产品上行"的商业模式： 特色农产品上行，走向全国，区域经济被激活 ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition among major players in the instant retail sector, including JD, Alibaba, and Meituan, is intensifying, characterized by aggressive subsidy strategies and a focus on establishing a robust retail infrastructure, while Douyin adopts a more cautious and strategic approach, potentially waiting for the right moment to enter the fray [1][8][12]. Group 1: Instant Retail Market Dynamics - The growth rate of social retail sales has dropped to 3.5% in 2024, while the penetration rate of instant retail has rapidly increased, with GMV growing by 19.5%, three times the growth rate of online retail [1]. - Major platforms are moving beyond simple traffic acquisition to deeper engagement, including building offline infrastructure and enhancing supply chain integration to improve efficiency and reduce costs [7][11]. - The competition has evolved from basic price subsidies to a more complex battle involving supply chain optimization and multi-channel collaboration among platforms [7][12]. Group 2: Major Players' Strategies - Meituan has established a strong ecosystem with 30,000 lightning warehouses, achieving over 150 million daily orders through its "Meituan Flash Purchase" service [4]. - Alibaba has upgraded its "hourly delivery" service to "Taobao Flash Purchase," rapidly increasing daily orders to 80 million through subsidies and strategic placement on the app [4]. - JD focuses on "quality delivery" by leveraging its supply chain and Dada's delivery capabilities, introducing a "second delivery warehouse" model [5]. Group 3: Douyin's Position and Strategy - Douyin has chosen to observe the subsidy war rather than directly participate, indicating a strategic decision based on its strengths and weaknesses [8][11]. - Douyin's instant retail efforts are divided into "hourly delivery" and "next-day delivery," targeting high-demand categories and expanding its service area through partnerships with logistics providers [8][9]. - The platform aims to enhance its logistics capabilities and build a more efficient ecosystem rather than engage in costly subsidy wars, focusing on long-term growth metrics like category penetration and user experience [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - Community group buying has been recognized as a significant failure in the internet industry, with major players incurring substantial losses and ultimately leading to a rapid decline in the sector's viability [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The community group buying sector experienced explosive growth in 2020, followed by a swift decline, with major companies like Meituan and Pinduoduo reporting cumulative losses exceeding 80 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [1][3]. - Major players such as Meituan, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, and Didi invested heavily in community group buying, with Alibaba's Taocai Cai reportedly spending at least 20 billion yuan to secure a top market position [4][3]. - The community group buying model was initially seen as a cost-effective alternative to traditional retail, with lower prices and reduced delivery costs compared to other models like front warehouses [6][8]. Group 2: Business Model Analysis - Community group buying utilized a "next-day delivery + self-pickup" model, significantly reducing operational costs compared to traditional delivery methods [6][4]. - The model aimed to streamline supply chains by minimizing intermediaries, reducing markup rates from 45% to below 20% [8]. - Despite its initial promise, the community group buying sector faced challenges such as high operational costs, limited profit margins, and regulatory scrutiny, leading to a decline in market viability [10][14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - By mid-2022, Pinduoduo and Meituan held a combined market share of 76%, but both companies shifted focus towards reducing losses rather than aggressive competition [12][14]. - The community group buying sector's struggles were exacerbated by the rise of instant retail, which offered a more efficient and profitable alternative, leading to questions about the future viability of community group buying [22][24]. - Instant retail's market size reached 650 billion yuan in 2023, significantly overshadowing community group buying, which faced increasing competition from established players like JD and Alibaba [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo is intentionally slowing down its growth to focus on long-term investments and high-quality development, despite the ongoing competition in the instant retail sector [2][3][11]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Pinduoduo reported revenue of 104 billion yuan, with a growth rate slowing to 7% [2]. - The company's costs for the same quarter were 45.859 billion yuan, marking a 36% year-on-year increase [2]. - For 2024, Pinduoduo's revenue is projected to reach 393.8 billion yuan, a 59% increase from 247.6 billion yuan in the previous year [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Pinduoduo has launched a "100 billion support" policy, which has evolved into a "1000 billion support" initiative aimed at assisting small and medium-sized businesses [5][11]. - The company is focusing on agricultural products and industrial upgrades, with initiatives like "2025 Multi-Good Specialty" and "New Quality Merchant Support Plan" [6][7]. Market Positioning - Pinduoduo is choosing to concentrate resources on its strengths, such as agricultural product sales and cost-effective supply chain optimization, rather than entering the highly competitive instant retail market [8][11]. - The company aims to build a long-term competitive advantage by retaining quality merchants through subsidies and reduced fees, creating a "stickiness" effect [11]. Future Outlook - Pinduoduo's management emphasizes the importance of creating unique value in its business decisions, indicating a cautious approach to entering new markets [8]. - The "1000 billion support" plan is seen as a way to establish a long-term moat, even if it temporarily reduces growth and profit margins [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance shows significant improvement, with expectations for enhanced profitability in the second half of the year [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 447.72 billion CNY, 498.03 billion CNY, and 540.14 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a more favorable competitive landscape [3][9] - The target price for the company is set at 175.06 USD per ADS, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation of 248.5 billion USD [3][10] Financial Information Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 247.64 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 90% [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 112.66 billion CNY, with a slight increase in growth rate expected in subsequent years [4] - The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit of 32.71 billion CNY in Q2 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations [8][9] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a Non-GAAP net profit of 1,220 billion CNY, 1,469 billion CNY, and 1,612 billion CNY for 2025-2027 [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 59.9% in 2025, with net profit margins expected to be 25.2% [4][9] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of August 27, 2025, was 123.02 USD, with a 52-week high of 155.67 USD and a low of 87.11 USD [5] - The company has shown strong relative performance over various time frames, including a 28.27% increase over the past year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Community group buying is recognized as a significant failure in the internet industry, characterized by rapid rise and fall within a year, leading to substantial losses for major players like Meituan and Pinduoduo [3][4][6]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The community group buying sector saw explosive growth in 2020, driven by major companies' aggressive investments, but faced a sharp decline by 2021, with Meituan's new business segment projected to incur losses exceeding 80 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [3][4][12]. - Major players like Pinduoduo, Alibaba, and Didi also reported significant losses in their community group buying ventures, highlighting the industry's overall financial struggles [4][6]. Group 2: Business Model Analysis - Community group buying was initially seen as a cost-effective model, offering prices 20% lower than traditional supermarkets and significantly reducing delivery costs compared to other models [21][25]. - The model utilized a "next-day delivery + self-pickup" approach, which helped lower operational costs by 40% compared to instant retail [22][25]. - Despite its initial promise, the model faced challenges such as high operational costs, limited profit margins, and regulatory scrutiny, leading to a decline in market viability [28][34]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - By mid-2022, Pinduoduo and Meituan held a combined market share of 76%, but both companies faced difficulties in sustaining profitability, with Meituan opting to significantly scale back its operations [31][34]. - The competition intensified with the rise of instant retail, which offered a clearer path to profitability and attracted consumer attention away from community group buying [57][63]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The community group buying sector is expected to continue facing challenges due to its inherent limitations in profitability and the increasing competition from instant retail, which has already surpassed community group buying in market size [57][63]. - The strategic positioning of companies within the sector varies, with Pinduoduo focusing on community group buying as a core business, while Meituan views it as a means to an end, leading to divergent paths for the two companies [53][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD) [1][11][23] Core Insights - Pinduoduo's revenue for Q2 2025 reached RMB 104 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [5][6] - The company has launched a "100 billion support" initiative to assist merchants, which is expected to enhance long-term growth and ecosystem optimization [6][9] - Short-term profits have exceeded expectations due to effective cost control and a stable monetization rate, despite a decline in gross profit and margin [7][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: - 2023: RMB 247,639 million - 2024: RMB 393,836 million - 2025E: RMB 404,873 million - 2026E: RMB 439,021 million - 2027E: RMB 501,347 million - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts: - 2025E: RMB 102,430 million - 2026E: RMB 138,571 million - 2027E: RMB 168,911 million - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 27.3% in 2025, decreasing to 24.4% by 2027 [2][14] Market Data - As of August 26, 2025, Pinduoduo's closing price was USD 123.91, with a market capitalization of USD 17.59 billion [3][4] - The stock has a 52-week high of USD 155.67 and a low of USD 87.11 [3] Strategic Initiatives - The "100 billion support" strategy aims to enhance merchant support and drive high-quality development, with significant investments in agricultural products leading to a 47% increase in sales [6][9] - Pinduoduo is focusing on optimizing its cost structure, with total operating expenses at 31.1% of revenue, indicating improved cost control [7][9] Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that despite short-term performance pressures, Pinduoduo's long-term growth strategy remains intact, with expectations for improved monetization rates and market share [11][9] - The company is diversifying its overseas business to mitigate tariff risks and enhance its competitive position [11][10]

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's recent financial performance shows a significant profit increase, but the company's executives express concerns about the sustainability of this profit level, indicating potential volatility in future quarters [1][3][20] Financial Performance - In Q2, Pinduoduo reported total revenue of 1039.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7%, which is lower than the previous quarter's 10% and significantly below last year's 86% [4] - Adjusted profit for the quarter was 327.1 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year but exceeding market expectations of 223.9 billion yuan [4] - Operating profit for Q2 was 258 billion yuan, reflecting a 21% year-on-year decline, primarily due to increased operating costs outpacing revenue growth [4][5] Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services and other revenues amounted to 557 billion yuan, growing 13% year-on-year, while transaction service revenue was 482.8 billion yuan, showing a minimal increase of 0.7% [5] - The decline in transaction service revenue is attributed to a reduction in commission rates for small and medium-sized merchants, which affects overall income [7][8] Business Strategy - Pinduoduo's strategy involves a "thousand billion subsidy" plan aimed at supporting merchants, which is seen as a necessary investment to enhance supply quality and foster brand development [19][20] - The company is focusing on nurturing its own brands rather than solely relying on established brands, which is viewed as a more sustainable growth path [15][19] Market Positioning - Pinduoduo's approach contrasts with that of other e-commerce platforms, as it seeks to create a unique ecosystem that supports small and medium-sized merchants while maintaining competitive pricing [17][20] - The platform's reliance on a diverse range of merchants, including many small businesses, is crucial for its revenue generation, highlighting the importance of maintaining a healthy merchant ecosystem [9][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][19]. Core Views - The company continues to invest in its e-commerce ecosystem, with a focus on long-term growth despite short-term challenges [4][19]. - The revenue for Q2 2025 reached 104 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7%, with online marketing services revenue increasing by 13% [2][11]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in domestic e-commerce GMV, while facing challenges in transaction service revenue due to its semi-managed transition [2][11]. Revenue Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 1040 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with online marketing service revenue at 557 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year [2][11]. - Transaction service revenue was 483 billion yuan, showing a modest increase of 1% year-on-year, but a slowdown compared to Q1 [2][11]. - The company has initiated a 100 billion yuan support plan to assist merchants, which is expected to impact commission rates on the main platform [2][11]. Profit Summary - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 56%, down 9.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased fulfillment costs and payment processing fees [3][12]. - Sales expense ratio improved to 26.2%, reflecting better control over spending in the context of the support plan and reduced competition in traffic costs [3][12]. - Interest income reached 10.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 115% year-on-year, marking a historical high for the company [3][12]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4363 billion yuan, 4990 billion yuan, and 5633 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 14%, and 13% respectively [4][19]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to be 1064 billion yuan, 1314 billion yuan, and 1464 billion yuan for the same period, with adjustments of +27%, +22%, and +16% [4][19]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 12x, 10x, and 9x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][19].

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo remains committed to "long-termism" despite slowing revenue growth and profit contraction, emphasizing long-term value creation over short-term financial performance [1][3][8] Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q2 2025, Pinduoduo reported total revenue of 104 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7%, indicating a further slowdown in growth [2][4] - Operating profit under Non-GAAP was 27.7 billion RMB, down 21% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 32.7 billion RMB, a decline of approximately 5% [1][2] - Revenue from online marketing services and other income was 55.7 billion RMB, up 10%, while transaction service revenue was 48.3 billion RMB, only a 1% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Cost and Expense Analysis - Total revenue costs rose significantly from 33.7 billion RMB to 45.9 billion RMB, a 36% increase year-on-year, primarily due to higher fulfillment costs, bandwidth and server costs, and payment processing fees [2] - Total operating expenses increased from 30.8 billion RMB to 32.3 billion RMB, a 5% rise, mainly driven by increased sales and marketing expenses [2] Strategic Initiatives - Pinduoduo has launched the "100 Billion Support" plan and the "100 Billion Reduction" initiative to support merchants, which includes various measures such as fee reductions and deposit adjustments [2][3] - The company is focusing on long-term investments to strengthen its ecosystem and upgrade its value chain, prioritizing merchant support over immediate profit [1][3][4] Market Response and Future Outlook - Following the earnings report, Pinduoduo's stock price initially rose over 10% before closing at 128.21 USD, reflecting a 0.87% increase [1] - Management has cautioned the market about future earnings volatility, emphasizing the need for continued investment to support small and medium-sized merchants amid increasing competition [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Pinduoduo is not engaging in the immediate retail battle but is focusing on supply-side strategies through its support plans [6] - The company acknowledges the challenges of the "Duoduo Buy Vegetables" business, which requires significant long-term investment, while also addressing the need for a robust supply chain to meet consumer demands [7][8]