前言 大家好，我是言叔。今年的互联网圈就像个热闹的角斗场，AI赛道上巨头们砸钱比狠，外卖战场里补 贴战打得昏天黑地。 可就在这一片喧嚣里，有个巨头却安静得反常，它就是刚过完十周年的拼多多。 十周年啊，这在互联网公司里算得上"长寿"里程碑了。别家公司早早就办庆典、发全员信喊口号，拼多 多倒好，员工就领到件卫衣、一枚纪念币，再加几个多多鸡盲盒。 更有意思的是，不少人转头就把这些纪念品挂到咸鱼，几十块钱就卖了。 拼多多先弃了"轻运营"的执念，开了不少分公司专门对接，就是为了拿到补贴资格，关键商品的价格硬 是压到了对手之下。 财报会上的操作更颠覆认知。别的公司都把业绩往天上吹，拼多多却直言"增长放缓不可避免，利润没 持续性"。 拼多多这波"示弱"到底是真躺平，还是藏着什么没说的后手？ 三条暗线揭秘 其实，拼多多在这场厮杀中有着三条安县，第一条暗线，就是国补大战中的"迂回战术"。 今年电商圈最激烈的战场，当属千亿国补大战。家电数码这些大件，国家最多能补2000块，诱惑力十 足。阿里、京东、抖音都铆足了劲，组了上千人的团队在各地抢补贴名额。 这时候拼多多的短板就暴露了，它一直走轻运营路线，跟那些深耕线下多年的对手比，抢名 ...

被管理的预期下，拼多多在暗处继续生长。 文 丨 沈方伟 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 相较于几年前投入多多买菜、号召员工炸掉金字塔时的大张旗鼓，拼多多的第十年异常安静，不提时 下流行的 AI，也没有卷入外卖大战。10 月 10 日的十周年纪念日，拼多多发了一个宣传短片，一万多 名员工没有收到管理层的全员信，每人领了一件卫衣、一枚纪念币，一些名为 "多多鸡" 的吉祥物盲盒 手办。于是一些年收入几十万元甚至更高的拼多多员工在闲鱼、小红书或卖或换，交易起了几十元的 盲盒。 不变的是每个季度财报会上拼多多高层的风险提示，"增长放缓不可避免""利润水平不具备可持续 性""本季度业绩（利润创新高）不代表未来"。一开始，这还会引发投资机构抛售其股票，去年股价一 度下跌 45%。几次三番，投资者也习惯了，连小红书上的散户都开始把财报发布后的暴跌当成买入信 号。 挑战确实更大了。拼多多百亿补贴今年撞上千亿国补，淘宝、甚至京东和抖音的一些热销电子产品价 格一度低过拼多多，冲击它的低价心智。 它所在的环境更残酷——消费增长停滞；对手也更强——从京东和职业经理人带领的天猫淘宝，变成 了抖音和创始人督战的淘宝天猫。 但最新一季，拼多多商品成交额（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo with a target price of $179.21 per ADS, reflecting a reasonable valuation of $254.4 billion USD (¥18,031 billion CNY) [3][5][14]. Core Insights - The report indicates that external negative impacts are diminishing, leading to a marginal improvement in the company's fundamentals. The advertising revenue for Q3 2025 was reported at ¥53.35 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, although it was below expectations [2][11]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of ¥434.9 billion, ¥504.5 billion, and ¥553.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits projected at ¥116.8 billion, ¥143.6 billion, and ¥168.8 billion for the same years [3][12]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to generate revenues of ¥434,885 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [4][12]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 is expected to be ¥116,835 million, with a profit margin of 26.9% [12][19]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the main platform's value using a P/E ratio of 9, leading to a valuation of ¥1,163.6 billion for the main site alone [13][14]. - **Market Performance**: The stock price as of November 19, 2025, was $118.02, with a 52-week high of $139.41 and a low of $87.11 [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's Q3 financial results indicate a slowdown in growth, particularly in advertising revenue, which has dropped to single-digit growth for the first time, raising concerns about the company's future performance [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Pinduoduo reported revenue of 108.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, slightly above market expectations and better than the previous quarter's 7% growth [3]. - Operating profit for the quarter was 27.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 1% [3]. - Following the earnings report, Pinduoduo's stock price fell over 7%, marking its worst single-day performance since the release of Q1 results [4]. Advertising Revenue - Pinduoduo's advertising revenue for the quarter was 53.3 billion yuan, missing expectations by 2.1 billion yuan and showing only an 8% year-on-year increase [5]. - This marks the first time Pinduoduo's advertising revenue growth has fallen to single digits, contrasting with Alibaba's 10% growth in customer management revenue for Q2 [6][7]. Reasons for Slowdown - The management team attributed the slowdown to increased competition and the unsustainability of high growth rates as the platform scales [8]. - Analysts suggest that the decline in advertising revenue may be due to a slowdown in GMV growth, which was only 9% in Q3, slightly above the industry average [9]. - Increased competition from platforms like Douyin and the impact of the instant retail battle are also seen as contributing factors [9]. Marketing Expenses and Subsidies - Pinduoduo's marketing expenses decreased by 0.5% year-on-year to 30.3 billion yuan, which was 2.6 billion yuan less than market expectations, as national subsidies have lessened [12]. - The reduction in subsidies has alleviated some financial pressure on Pinduoduo, allowing for a potential recovery in operating profit [12]. International Expansion - Pinduoduo's commission revenue reached 54.9 billion yuan in Q3, a 10% year-on-year increase, driven by clearer tariff policies and the expansion of Temu in international markets [14]. - Temu has seen significant growth, leading in global e-commerce app downloads and monthly active users, with a total download count exceeding 1.2 billion [15]. - However, international expansion poses challenges due to varying compliance requirements across countries and logistical issues in Latin America [16]. Future Outlook - Temu is expected to achieve breakeven in the first half of 2026 and potentially turn a profit in the second half, which could signal a new phase of profitability for Pinduoduo [17].

Core Insights - Pinduoduo has completed its first decade, emphasizing its commitment to consumer benefits and innovative promotional strategies like "100 Billion Subsidy" [1][2] - The company has amassed over 9 million active users and more than 10 million active merchants, significantly impacting daily life in China [1][3] - Pinduoduo's approach to e-commerce focuses on inclusivity and affordability, redefining consumption upgrades for a broader audience [6][9] Group 1: Business Strategy - Pinduoduo's strategy is characterized by a focus on core e-commerce operations rather than chasing fleeting trends, prioritizing consumer and merchant interests over short-term profits [1][11] - The company has successfully penetrated rural markets, enhancing digital literacy and access to goods for underserved populations [4][6] - Pinduoduo's unique business model emphasizes a "reverse paradigm" in e-commerce, concentrating on agricultural product sales and supply chain optimization [11][12] Group 2: Consumer Experience - The platform's user-friendly design and features like group buying have made online shopping accessible to older demographics [6][9] - Pinduoduo has transformed the shopping experience by offering significant discounts and a wide range of products, catering to diverse consumer needs [3][4] - The introduction of "100 Billion Subsidy" has built consumer trust and loyalty, leading to a substantial increase in transaction volume [4][12] Group 3: Merchant Impact - Pinduoduo has facilitated significant growth for merchants, with some reporting revenue increases from millions to over a billion yuan through the platform [8][9] - The company has initiated various support programs for merchants, including a "100 Billion Relief" plan to alleviate operational costs [12][13] - Pinduoduo's focus on community and collaboration has fostered a sustainable ecosystem for merchants, encouraging innovation and local economic development [11][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance shows significant improvement, with expectations for enhanced profitability in the second half of the year [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 447.72 billion CNY, 498.03 billion CNY, and 540.14 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a more favorable competitive landscape [3][9] - The target price for the company is set at 175.06 USD per ADS, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation of 248.5 billion USD [3][10] Financial Information Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 247.64 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 90% [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 112.66 billion CNY, with a slight increase in growth rate expected in subsequent years [4] - The company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit of 32.71 billion CNY in Q2 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations [8][9] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a Non-GAAP net profit of 1,220 billion CNY, 1,469 billion CNY, and 1,612 billion CNY for 2025-2027 [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 59.9% in 2025, with net profit margins expected to be 25.2% [4][9] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of August 27, 2025, was 123.02 USD, with a 52-week high of 155.67 USD and a low of 87.11 USD [5] - The company has shown strong relative performance over various time frames, including a 28.27% increase over the past year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo has accumulated significant cash assets and is facing the critical question of how to utilize these funds effectively as it transitions from a growth phase to a mature phase [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the latest quarter, Pinduoduo's interest and investment income reached a level of 10 billion RMB, which is a notable contribution compared to the 25.8 billion RMB operating profit from its main business [1] - The average quarterly profit remains around 5.3 billion RMB, consistent with the previous year's performance [1] Group 2: Cash and Investment Assets - As of the second quarter, Pinduoduo has 538.8 billion RMB (approximately 75 billion USD) in cash or idle funds that can generate interest or be invested [3] - The key components of idle funds include monetary funds, restricted cash, short-term investments, and other non-current assets [3] Group 3: Short-term Investments - Short-term investments, which account for 60% of the total, primarily consist of fixed deposits and held-to-maturity bonds, with a growing portion allocated to stock trading [5][6] - The stock trading balance increased from 17.2 billion RMB in 2023 to 44.5 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a shift towards higher-risk investments to enhance yield [6] Group 4: Non-current Assets - Pinduoduo's non-current assets are primarily composed of long-term fixed deposits and held-to-maturity bonds, with minimal equity investments [8] - The company maintains a clean balance sheet with no significant external equity investments or cross-industry mergers [10] Group 5: Investment Returns - The overall return on cash and investment assets has remained between 4-5% over the past two years, aligning with the risk-free return rates of U.S. Treasury bonds [13] - The yield from fixed deposits and held-to-maturity bonds is approximately 4%, consistent with recent U.S. Treasury rates [15] Group 6: Capital Allocation Strategy - Pinduoduo's return on equity (ROE) stands at 13.5%, significantly higher than the 4-5% return on idle cash, highlighting the need for optimized capital allocation [16] - The company faces a strategic decision on whether to reinforce its core business, explore new markets, or consider dividends and share buybacks as growth slows [16] - The potential for cash accumulation without strategic investment could lead to declining ROE and valuation concerns [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo has accumulated significant cash assets and is facing the critical question of how to utilize these funds effectively as it transitions from a growth phase to a mature phase [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the second quarter, Pinduoduo's cash or idle funds that can generate interest or be invested totaled approximately 538.8 billion RMB, equivalent to about 75 billion USD [3] - The company's interest and investment income for the quarter reached a substantial level of 10 billion RMB, which is notable compared to the 25.8 billion RMB operating profit from core business [1][3] - The average quarterly income from interest and investments remains around 5.3 billion RMB, consistent with the previous year's performance [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Pinduoduo's short-term investments, which account for 60% of its investment portfolio, primarily consist of fixed deposits and held-to-maturity bonds, with a growing portion allocated to stock trading, increasing from 17.2 billion RMB in 2023 to 44.5 billion RMB in 2024 [5][10] - The company has maintained a clean balance sheet with minimal external equity investments or cross-industry mergers, focusing instead on core e-commerce operations [9] - The overall return on cash and investment assets has remained between 4-5%, aligning with the risk-free rate of U.S. Treasury bonds [13] Group 3: Capital Allocation Considerations - Pinduoduo's return on equity (ROE) for the first half of the year was 13.5%, significantly higher than the 4-5% return on idle cash, indicating a clear priority for capital allocation [15] - The company faces two main options for future capital allocation: either increase investments in core business areas or consider dividends and share buybacks as growth slows [15][16] - The current strategy appears to lack effective market value management, raising concerns about potential declines in ROE and overall valuation if cash accumulation continues without strategic deployment [16]

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's Q2 performance exceeded profit expectations, leading to a temporary stock price surge, but revenue growth remains stable and unremarkable, indicating a potential slowdown in growth momentum [1][5]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for Q2 reached approximately 104 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7%, aligning closely with market expectations after two consecutive quarters of underperformance [1][10]. - Core advertising revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year, also meeting market expectations, suggesting that growth in Pinduoduo's main platform has stabilized [1][11]. Temu's Performance - Transaction commission revenue for Temu was about 48.3 billion RMB, showing negligible growth of less than 1% year-on-year, primarily due to increased tariffs and the shift from full to semi-managed business models [2][15]. - Despite challenges, Temu's overall GMV growth is estimated to exceed 40%, indicating resilience through market expansion and business model adaptation [2][7]. Marketing and Expenses - Marketing expenses were significantly lower than expected at 27.2 billion RMB, nearly 8 billion RMB less than anticipated, contributing to a stronger profit performance [2][20]. - R&D expenses continued to grow at approximately 23% year-on-year, while management expenses decreased by nearly 17%, reflecting improved operational efficiency [2][20]. Profitability - Operating profit margin improved to nearly 25%, up from 17% in the previous quarter, with actual operating profit around 25.8 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 4.3 billion RMB [3][23]. - Net profit reached 30.8 billion RMB, influenced by investment income exceeding 10 billion RMB, showcasing Pinduoduo's strong profitability under effective cost control [3][24]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Pinduoduo's performance, while stable, lags behind competitors like JD.com and Vipshop, which reported stronger growth, indicating a relative disadvantage in the current market environment [5][12]. - The company may need to maintain subsidy efforts in its main platform to counterbalance competitive disadvantages, although the negative impact of subsidies is expected to diminish over time [5][6].

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant changes in rural areas, particularly in Bu Tuo County, due to the introduction of e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo, which have improved access to a variety of goods, including seafood like blue crabs [3][9][12] - Pinduoduo's "100 billion support" plan has accelerated the integration of urban and rural economies by providing subsidies and resources to remote areas, enhancing the availability of quality products and services [3][12][16] - The rapid growth of self-pickup points for Pinduoduo's grocery service, "Duoduo Buy Vegetables," has led to increased consumer engagement and a shift in shopping habits among local residents [4][9][11] Group 2 - The article illustrates the personal journey of a young woman, Luo Ling, who has experienced the stark contrast between urban and rural life, and how e-commerce has bridged some of these gaps for her family [4][5][15] - Luo Ling's mother, Aji Meiriwai, represents the resilience of rural women, adapting to new shopping methods and utilizing Pinduoduo to enhance their family's quality of life [13][16] - The narrative emphasizes the emotional connection between Luo Ling and her mother, showcasing how modern conveniences like online shopping can strengthen familial bonds despite geographical distances [15][16]