海豚君之前说过，虽然$拼多多(PDD.US)一直强调不分红回购，但任何一个公司走过成长期、进入成熟期之后，都要回答一个核心问题：堆积的现金资产如 何使用？ 这个季度，拼多多利息和投资收益单季直接拉到了百亿水准（以利息和股票投资收益为主），相比当季 258 亿的主营业务经营利润已经是一个不小的存在 了。 当然从季度波动性的角度，平均单季还是在 53 亿上下的水平，与去年每个季度的水平相差不大。 本篇海豚君就接着这个机会，搓扁揉碎，仔细看看不分红、不回购，即使 TEMU 和主站需要投入，仍然能有大量利润剩余的拼多多，拿着这几年堆积的小 金库，实现的收益到底如何？ 并在此基础上，展开思考一下，拼多多未来的资本配置可能方向有哪些？ 一、地主家到底堆了多少余粮？ 二季度，公司主要有四类资金属现金或者闲置资金，合计起来可以生息或投资的资产余额高达 5388 亿人民币，约合 750 亿美金。 a.货币基金是维持日常运转的，受限制现金是用户在拼多多在下单时候支付的购物款，存在拼多多的监管银行账户上，等用户确认收款了之后，会支付给商 家。 b. 这里最关键的闲置资金（基本不参与主营业务的价值创造），主要是短期投资和其他非流动资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's Q2 performance exceeded profit expectations, leading to a temporary stock price surge, but revenue growth remains stable and unremarkable, indicating a potential slowdown in growth momentum [1][5]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for Q2 reached approximately 104 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7%, aligning closely with market expectations after two consecutive quarters of underperformance [1][10]. - Core advertising revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year, also meeting market expectations, suggesting that growth in Pinduoduo's main platform has stabilized [1][11]. Temu's Performance - Transaction commission revenue for Temu was about 48.3 billion RMB, showing negligible growth of less than 1% year-on-year, primarily due to increased tariffs and the shift from full to semi-managed business models [2][15]. - Despite challenges, Temu's overall GMV growth is estimated to exceed 40%, indicating resilience through market expansion and business model adaptation [2][7]. Marketing and Expenses - Marketing expenses were significantly lower than expected at 27.2 billion RMB, nearly 8 billion RMB less than anticipated, contributing to a stronger profit performance [2][20]. - R&D expenses continued to grow at approximately 23% year-on-year, while management expenses decreased by nearly 17%, reflecting improved operational efficiency [2][20]. Profitability - Operating profit margin improved to nearly 25%, up from 17% in the previous quarter, with actual operating profit around 25.8 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 4.3 billion RMB [3][23]. - Net profit reached 30.8 billion RMB, influenced by investment income exceeding 10 billion RMB, showcasing Pinduoduo's strong profitability under effective cost control [3][24]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Pinduoduo's performance, while stable, lags behind competitors like JD.com and Vipshop, which reported stronger growth, indicating a relative disadvantage in the current market environment [5][12]. - The company may need to maintain subsidy efforts in its main platform to counterbalance competitive disadvantages, although the negative impact of subsidies is expected to diminish over time [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo with a target price of $135.58 per ADS [5][12]. Core Views - The Q1 performance of Pinduoduo fell short of expectations, with revenue of CNY 956.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.2%, but below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of CNY 1,016.0 billion [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was CNY 169.2 billion, a significant decline of 44.7% year-over-year, also missing the consensus estimate of CNY 278.8 billion [9]. - The report highlights that while advertising revenue showed good performance, commission income was under pressure due to increased merchant support policies and adjustments in the Temu business [9]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are adjusted to CNY 4,403 billion, CNY 4,883 billion, and CNY 5,250 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are revised to CNY 1,072 billion, CNY 1,317 billion, and CNY 1,499 billion for the same years [3][11]. - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the main e-commerce platform's value at $143.9 billion, the Duoduo grocery business at $5.9 billion, and the Temu business at $42.7 billion [12][14]. Key Financial Metrics - For 2025, the expected operating revenue is CNY 440,349 million, with a year-over-year growth of 12% [10]. - The projected operating profit for 2025 is CNY 112,152 million, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous year [10]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 61.1% and a net margin of 22.1% for 2025 [10].

Core Insights - Pinduoduo's revenue and profit missed expectations in Q1, with revenue at 957 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year growth, falling short of the anticipated 1,016 billion yuan [1][3] - The company's operating profit decreased by 38% to 161 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 47% to 147 billion yuan [2][3] - Pinduoduo's advertising revenue grew by 15% to 487 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, but the growth rate is slowing down [3] Revenue and Profit Performance - Q1 revenue was 957 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, missing the market expectation by nearly 60 billion yuan [1] - Operating profit was 161 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year, while net profit was 147 billion yuan, down 47% [2][3] - Advertising revenue reached 487 billion yuan, growing 15% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 480 billion yuan [3] Strategic Choices and Market Position - Pinduoduo is focusing on maintaining price competitiveness through increased subsidies, impacting short-term profits for long-term growth [1][3] - The company has implemented a "thousand billion support plan" for merchants, which is seen as a long-term investment despite its immediate negative impact on profits [7] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with rivals like Alibaba and JD.com targeting Pinduoduo's price advantage [5] Cross-Border E-commerce Challenges - Pinduoduo's cross-border e-commerce platform, Temu, faced significant challenges due to increased tariffs and changes in U.S. customs policies [8][10] - The company has shifted from a full-managed model to a semi-managed model to adapt to new regulations, impacting revenue recognition [8][10] - Advertising expenditures in the U.S. have been significantly reduced, while investments in European markets have increased [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's Q1 2023 financial results showed significant revenue and profit misses, indicating a shift to low growth and raising concerns about its business strategy and competitive positioning [1][15][32]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2023 was approximately 957 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%, but fell short of market expectations by nearly 60 billion RMB, marking a trend towards low growth [1][15]. - Advertising revenue, which reflects the main platform's performance, grew by 14.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 13% [2][17]. - Commission income was approximately 470 billion RMB, significantly below market expectations by over 70 billion RMB, primarily due to the impact of Temu's business model transition [3][20]. Profitability Issues - Operating profit for the quarter was 183 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of about 38%, and fell short of sell-side expectations by over 90 billion RMB, indicating a severe profit drop [2][32]. - The gross profit was 547 billion RMB, also below market expectations by 50 billion RMB, largely due to underestimating the impact of the semi-managed model of Temu [4][24]. Marketing Expenditure - Marketing expenses surged to 334 billion RMB, an increase of nearly 100 billion RMB compared to the same period last year, and exceeded market expectations of 289 billion RMB [3][28]. - The increase in marketing expenses reflects aggressive subsidies aimed at regaining growth in the domestic market, especially after setbacks in overseas operations [4][28]. Strategic Implications - The company appears to be prioritizing user and merchant subsidies over shareholder returns, indicating a strategic choice to invest in growth rather than immediate profitability [8][10]. - Pinduoduo's current situation suggests a shift towards a mature, low-growth phase, with significant cash reserves that could be utilized for share buybacks or reinvestment in the business [8][11]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in China's e-commerce sector remains intense, with Pinduoduo's strategy of heavy subsidies potentially impacting its long-term valuation and market position [9][10]. - The company's focus on efficiency in a highly competitive market may determine its future success, as it navigates the challenges of low margins and high competition [9][11].