投资建议：京东零售壁垒坚实增势稳健，考虑到外卖业务持续投入及其他新业务亏损扩大，预计2025- 2027 年集团Non-gaap 归母净利润为318/ 368/ 556 亿元，给予2026 年Non-gaap 归母净利润10 倍PE，对 应目标价136.5 港元/股，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧；外卖投入超预期。 电商收入保持稳健增长，活跃用户及购买频次维持高速增长。2025Q3 公司实现营业收入2991 亿元，同 比+14.9%（彭博一致预期+13.1%），京东零售收入为2506 亿元，同比+11.4%（预期+10.3%）。1P 方 面，Q3 带电类收入同比+4.9%（预期+8.8%），国补从Q3 起进入高基数将对带电品类的同比增速带来 一定影响；日百类收入同比+18.8%（预期13.3%），延续较快增长趋势，预计Q4 在丰富的产品供给、 提升的价格竞争力和较好的服务驱动下增长势头有望延续。从用户侧来看，本季度活跃用户和购物频次 同比增速继续超过40%，年度活跃用户数在10 月超过7 亿人。3P 方面，服务收入729.7 亿元，同比 +31%，其中平台及广告服务收入实现同比+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group [3] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and retail revenue of 250.6 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year. Retail operating profit reached 14.8 billion yuan, a 27.7% increase year-on-year [1][5] - The report highlights the robust growth in the daily necessities category and the rapid expansion of third-party service revenue, while the electric category faced growth pressure due to high base effects from government subsidies [1][5] - The report expresses optimism about JD's strong self-operated supply chain and its ability to maintain a solid competitive edge in the long term [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 Non-GAAP net profit was 5.8 billion yuan, down 56% year-on-year, but better than the expected decline of 70% [1][5] - The report projects that JD's retail revenue and profit will continue to grow at double-digit rates year-on-year for the full year [1][5] - The report anticipates that JD's Non-GAAP net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 31.8 billion yuan, 36.8 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] Business Segment Insights - The report notes that JD's food delivery business is steadily developing, with losses narrowing quarter-on-quarter, and highlights the potential for further loss reduction in the future [1][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of user engagement and conversion rates from the food delivery segment, which are improving and contributing to overall growth [1][5] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for JD Group is set at 136.5 HKD per share, based on a 10x PE ratio for 2026 Non-GAAP net profit [3][5] - The current stock price is 124.4 HKD, indicating potential upside [3]