1月6日，国内期市有色金属板块集体上冲。其中，碳酸锂期货再创新高，主力合约已突破137000元/吨 大关，较上一交易日上涨10000元/吨左右。 需求方面，创元期货分析称，虽然2026年1月需求排产环比下滑，但好于此前市场预期，正极环节由于 头部大厂集中检修，环比下滑幅度高于其他环节，但电池排产向好，需求总体维持强势。 现货方面，1月6日，ICC电池级碳酸锂(99.5%)现货结算指导价格为127000元/吨，较上一工作日上涨 5000元；电池级氢氧化锂(56.5%粗颗粒)结算指导价格为103000元/吨，较上一工作日上涨5000元。 供应端，华闻期货分析称，多重因素加剧短缺预期，供给收缩确定性强。国内矿山产能受限，江西宜春 注销27宗锂云母矿采矿权，环保与资源监管趋严导致当地企业开工率下降；宁德时代（300750）枧下窝 锂矿因采矿证问题停产，预计每月减少约0.8-1万吨碳酸锂供应，直接切断部分国内原料来源。 展望后市，东吴期货表示，碳酸锂基本面上没有显著的变化，节前调整更多是由于市场情绪带动以及交 易所政策调整。中长期来看，碳酸锂中枢仍有望上移。关注交易所政策变化 ...

12月26日，碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中强势突破13万元/吨关口，日内涨超8%，创2023年11月以来新 高。这也为近期碳酸锂市场价的上行带来了新的看点。 跌宕起伏市场演变 在不平凡的2025年，从碳酸锂期货到现货，价格走势犹如一部跌宕起伏的大片。从年初的蛰伏，到年中 数次波动"试水"，再到临近年末的突然崛起，强势突破，年内累计涨幅高达近70%。由此，摆脱了过去两年的 低迷阴霾，迎来了新的上行希望。 值得注意的是，碳酸锂期货市场的"发火"，也迅速点燃了A股锂题材板块的热情。12月26日当天，A股市 场锂板块几乎全线飘红，多股迎来近期较大涨幅，成为当日市场中"最靓的仔"。有关专家认为，这不仅是市 场的真实反映，也是行业对未来看好的强烈信心。 在2025年，全球锂资源集中度的不断提升，也进一步强化了头部厂商对锂精矿定价权的掌控力。这些头 部厂商通过大规模的资源整合和并购，逐渐垄断了全球大部分优质锂矿资源。他们凭借着较的市场地位和定 价话语权，能够根据市场供需情况灵活调整价格，从而带动碳酸锂现货与期货价格的联动上涨。 随着碳酸锂价格的上涨，中游材料环节也受到了显著影响。正极材料、电解液等关键材料环节的成本压 力迅速增加 ...

12月26日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，碳酸锂期货高开大涨，现报130120.0元/吨，涨幅 7.79%，创2023年11月以来新高。 现货方面，数据显示，12月26日电池级碳酸锂早盘市场价格为120400元/吨较上一工作日上涨4300元。 供应方面，金瑞期货指出，昨日多家正极材料企业宣布减产，湖南裕能（301358）预计影响1.5-3.5万 吨、万润新能0.5-2万吨、德方纳米（300769）部分产线。正极企业联合减产，一方面有助于该季度与 下游的加工费谈判，另一方面则有利于正极企业将原料碳酸锂成本压力向下游传导。 需求方面，冠通期货表示，市场对于明年储能电池的需求保持乐观情绪，淡季不淡继续推高热情。但终 端旺季即将进入收尾阶段，明年起购置税由免征改为减半征收，预计本月需求有前置，后续终端表现或 向上传导至原料端。 展望后市，东吴期货表示，枧下窝确认停产后，碳酸锂开始快速拉升，持续创新高。2026年1月下游锂 电排产数据好于市场预期，进一步增强市场看多市场情绪。但是广期所已经开始调整LC交易政策，注 意回调风险。 ...

来源：证券时报网 作者：许孝如 近一个月来，碳酸锂期货价格快速拉升，从9万元/吨附近一路上行，一举突破12万元/吨关口，市场情 绪明显升温。在价格波动加剧背景下，交易所再度出手强化风控。 12月24日晚间，广期所发布公告，自12月26日交易时起，调整碳酸锂期货部分合约交易指令每次最小开 仓下单数量及单日开仓交易限额。同时，针对连续三个涨停板的铂期货主力合约，广期所同步实施提保 扩板等风控措施。 业内人士指出，从碳酸锂到铂期货，交易所近期密集出台风控举措，释放出明确监管信号——在行情快 速演绎、资金高度集中阶段，通过制度性"降温"，抑制过度投机，防范价格失真与市场风险，保障期货 市场平稳运行。 碳酸锂单月暴涨三成，交易所收紧交易限额 根据广期所公告，依据《广州期货交易所交易管理办法》《广州期货交易所风险管理办法》，交易所决 定对碳酸锂期货相关合约的交易规则进行调整。 自2025年12月26日交易时起，碳酸锂期货LC2601、LC2602、LC2603、LC2604、LC2605、LC2606、 LC2607、LC2608、LC2609、LC2610、LC2611、LC2612合约的交易指令每次最小下单数量中的每 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant growth, with a historical high in open interest and a substantial influx of capital, indicating a strong demand outlook driven by the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [1][4][6]. Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - The open interest for lithium carbonate futures reached a record high, surpassing 660,000 contracts, with over 1.3 billion yuan entering the market [1][6]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose to a range of 94,000 to 97,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a daily increase of 5.26% [3]. - Global lithium carbonate supply is projected at 1.35 million tons in 2024, with demand at 1.22 million tons, indicating a temporary surplus but strong support from the booming electric vehicle and energy storage industries [3]. Group 2: Export Growth in Battery Sector - In November, China's exports of power and other batteries reached 32.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year increase of 46.5% [4]. - Cumulative exports from January to November totaled 260.3 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.2% [4]. - The export volume of power batteries in November was 21.2 GWh, accounting for 66% of total exports, with a year-on-year increase of 70.2% [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Industry Outlook - The lithium carbonate price is expected to range between 60,000 and 100,000 yuan per ton in 2025, with the latter half of 2024 showing stronger price performance compared to 2024 [6]. - The social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for 13 consecutive weeks, totaling a reduction of 22,000 tons, marking a new low since the futures were launched [6]. - Key raw materials in the new energy battery supply chain, such as sulfur and sulfuric acid, are also experiencing price increases due to supply tightness from maintenance activities in various regions [7].

Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are exceeding expectations, with winter conditions affecting lithium extraction in key regions like Qinghai and Tibet, leading to a projected capacity reduction of 15-20% [1] - Core mining operations are facing challenges, such as the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine, which is unable to resume production due to incomplete mining rights processes, and the shutdown of some mica mines due to low lithium carbonate prices, resulting in ongoing supply contraction [1] - Demand remains robust, particularly in the energy storage market, with global energy storage cell shipments expected to surge by 75% year-on-year by 2025, and domestic new energy storage installations doubling [1] - The demand for power batteries continues to grow, with October vehicle installations increasing by 10.7% month-on-month, driven by a "rush to install" ahead of the end of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles [1] - A consensus reached between China and the U.S. to suspend lithium battery export controls for one year has further amplified demand [1] Inventory and Price Movements - Lithium carbonate social inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, dropping to a two-year low of 109,000 tons, with turnover days falling to 28.1 days, the lowest since futures listing [2] - The supply-demand gap in November is projected to reach 16,800 tons, widening from 12,600 tons in October, creating a solid foundation for price increases [2] Technical and Market Sentiment - After experiencing significant volatility, lithium carbonate futures prices rebounded, with a notable drop of 9% on November 21, followed by a further decline of 2.88% to 90,480 yuan/ton, nearing industry cost lines, indicating strong rebound demand [3] - Policy impacts are gradually dissipating, as adjustments to trading fees and limits on November 24 led to a temporary price drop, but the market quickly absorbed this negative news, allowing prices to rise again based on fundamental pricing logic [3] Industry Chain and Financial Support - The price transmission within the industry chain is evident, with upstream lithium spodumene prices reaching 3,000 USD/ton, increasing production costs for lithium carbonate, while downstream processing fees for lithium iron phosphate have also risen significantly [4] - The futures market for lithium carbonate has maintained a holding volume of over 1 million contracts, attracting significant attention from investors, with trading volumes on November 25 reaching 511,300 contracts, indicating strong bullish sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, which have recently surpassed 100,000 yuan/ton, driven by strong demand and limited supply [1][2] - The price increase has exceeded most expectations in the industry, with downstream buyers showing limited willingness to purchase at these elevated prices [1][2] - Predictions indicate that lithium carbonate prices may stabilize between 80,000 to 120,000 yuan/ton by 2026, depending on when downstream buyers begin large-scale replenishment [2][4] Group 2 - The lithium carbonate futures contract has seen a substantial increase of 65.63% since hitting a low of 58,400 yuan/ton on June 23, with current prices reflecting a significant rebound from earlier lows [2] - The current market for lithium carbonate is characterized by rapid price fluctuations, with the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rising from 59,900 yuan/ton in June to 97,550 yuan/ton by mid-November, marking a 56% increase over the year [2] - The strong demand for lithium carbonate is attributed to the robust performance of the domestic power battery industry, with a 10.7% month-on-month increase in battery installation in October [3] Group 3 - The storage market's demand remains strong, with leading lithium battery companies placing large orders with upstream material suppliers, contributing to a decrease in domestic lithium carbonate inventory [3] - Current inventory levels show a downward trend, with a reported monthly inventory of 84,234 tons in October and a weekly inventory of 120,472 tons, indicating a reduction of 3,481 tons week-on-week [2][3] - By 2025, global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 1.45 million tons, with expectations of a further increase to 1.55 million tons due to rising demand in the latter half of the year [3][4] Group 4 - Forecasts suggest that lithium carbonate demand will grow by 30% in 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to increase by approximately 250,000 tons, leading to a balanced supply-demand scenario [4] - If demand growth exceeds 30% or even reaches 40%, prices could potentially rise above 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton in the short term due to supply constraints [4] - The surge in lithium carbonate futures prices has positively impacted lithium mining stocks, with several companies experiencing significant gains in their stock prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate remain tight, and the market is optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year, driving the continuous rise in lithium carbonate prices. In the context of good demand expectations, short - term trading is recommended. If the price回调 due to factors such as mine复产, it is more prudent to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons On November 19th, the lithium carbonate futures price strengthened again, with the main contract rising over 4% and the disk price approaching 100,000 yuan per ton. The core reason for this price rebound is the continuous improvement in the demand side. The demand for power batteries and energy - storage batteries remains high, driving the accelerated depletion of lithium carbonate inventory. The market has an optimistic demand expectation for next year. The prices of industrial chain materials are rising synchronously, enhancing the upward momentum of lithium carbonate. On November 18th, a seminar on "Cost Research in the Lithium Iron Phosphate Material Industry" was held, emphasizing the need to guide the industry's orderly development [3]. Fundamental Situation Supply of lithium resources is gradually recovering, but demand is stronger, and the supply - demand relationship remains in a tight balance. SMM data shows that the lithium carbonate production in October rose to 92,300 tons, and is expected to remain high from November to December. The demand side is strong. From November to December, there is still support. Policies such as "trade - in" and purchase tax relief promote the production and sales of new - energy vehicles. The energy - storage economy is improving, and the market's optimistic expectation for next - year's energy - storage demand will boost lithium carbonate in the long - term. The production of cathodes and electrolytes remains high, with lithium hexafluorophosphate rising over 190% since mid - July. The current inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously depleting, and it is expected to continue from November to December. The overall supply - demand pattern from November to December is still tight [4]. Summary and Strategy Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are tight, and the market's optimistic demand expectation for next year drives the price up. In the context of good demand expectations, short - term trading is recommended. If the price回调 due to factors such as mine复产, it is more prudent to buy on dips [5].

Market Overview - On November 19, A-shares experienced a rise and then a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up by 0.25%. The total market turnover reached 1.74 trillion, with over 4,100 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The precious metals, military industry, and aquaculture sectors saw significant gains, while sectors such as Hainan, gas, and film and television experienced notable declines [1] - The aquaculture sector had a strong performance in the afternoon, with several key stocks hitting the daily limit up, making it one of the most notable sectors in the capital market. Guolian Aquatic (300094) opened the afternoon session with a 20% limit up, and other stocks like Zangzi Island (002069), Dahu Co. (600257), Zhongshui Fishery (000798), and Kaichuang International (600097) also reached the limit up [1] Military and Gold Stocks - The military equipment sector saw another surge in the afternoon, with Jianglong Shipbuilding (300589) hitting the 20% limit up, and other companies like China Shipbuilding Defense (600685) and Yaxing Anchor Chain (601890) also reaching the limit up. Tianhai Defense (300008) rose over 14% [2] - Gold stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with Zhongjin Gold (600489) reaching the limit up and closing with an 8.76% increase. Other notable performers included Chifeng Gold (600988) and Shandong Gold (600547) [2] Lithium Carbonate Market - On November 19, the lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant rally, with the main contract breaking the 100,000 yuan/ton mark for the first time since June 2024, with an intraday increase approaching 6%. The strong demand and improved supply-demand relationship were highlighted as key factors driving this price surge [4] - Analysts noted that the current market logic is centered around robust demand growth, with SMM weekly data indicating a rapid decrease in lithium carbonate inventory, contributing to optimistic market expectations [4]

Core Insights - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased by 2800 yuan compared to the previous day, reaching 96850 yuan per ton [1] Industry Summary - The data was released by Shanghai Steel Union, indicating a significant upward movement in lithium carbonate pricing, which is crucial for the battery manufacturing sector [1]