(二)装机节奏：新能源"抢装后回落"，火电集中释放产能 2025年"136"号文对6月前后投产项目设定差异保底待遇，引发上半年"531"抢装潮，1-5月新增光伏 197.85GW、风电46.28GW，同比分别增149.97%、134.21%；6月后装机断崖式下跌，环比、同比均大幅 下行。随着补贴退坡与"十四五"规划收官，2026年风光装机延续颓势，预计分别达10000万千瓦、22000 万千瓦，同比降4.31%、29.00%。火电方面，2022-2024年煤电累计核准2.6亿千瓦，超额完成目标，受 24个月建设周期影响，2026年迎投产高峰，年均投产超8000万千瓦。 2026电改突破：市场化与现货化双轮驱动 (一)电源市场化：新能源与核电入市加速 截至2025年底，26个省区市公布新能源机制竞价结果，多数省份以竞价上限或接近上限成交，仅少数地 区下限成交，多数竞价结果接近燃煤基准价；13个地区机制电量使用率不足80%，支撑竞价表现。核电 入市范围扩大，"十四五"后半段年均核准不低于10台，2027年后迎投产潮，2026年广东、广西、福建多 地核电全面入市，浙江新增50%核电电量参与交易。 电力行业正步入转型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The power industry is entering a new phase characterized by rational investment, market-oriented power generation, and spot pricing for electricity [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant cooling in new energy investments, while thermal power is expected to reach its investment peak by 2026 [5][17]. - The introduction of the "1502" document is expected to shift the electricity pricing model towards a more flexible, market-driven approach, enhancing the role of spot trading [3][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Industry Investment and Capacity Situation - Investment in new energy has notably decreased, while thermal power investment continues to grow. The peak for thermal power investment is anticipated in 2026 [5][17]. - Monthly capacity additions show a stark contrast before and after the "531" policy, with thermal power gradually approaching its production peak [5][10]. 2. New Trends in Electricity Reform for 2026 - Market-oriented power generation is gaining traction, with competitive bidding results for new energy projects being favorable. Nuclear power is also increasing its market entry ratio [3][29]. - The "1502" document has loosened the previous pricing model, significantly increasing the weight of spot trading in electricity transactions [3][29]. 3. Analysis of the Second Half of Electricity Reform - New energy capacity additions are expected to slow significantly, while thermal power generation is projected to see substantial growth. The report estimates an increase in thermal power generation from a decline of 37.8 billion kWh in 2025 to an increase of 135.6 billion kWh in 2026, representing a growth rate of 2.20% [3][10]. - The annual long-term contract price decline is more significant than expected, creating potential profit opportunities for thermal power in the spot market [3][10]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the challenges faced by thermal power may reverse, with a focus on high-quality leading companies and integrated coal-power operators. The expected stabilization of coal prices and significant growth in thermal power generation are key factors for this turnaround [3][10][29]. - Recommended companies include major state-owned enterprises in the power sector and integrated coal-power operators, which are expected to show resilience and high dividend attributes [3][10].