(二)装机节奏：新能源"抢装后回落"，火电集中释放产能 2025年"136"号文对6月前后投产项目设定差异保底待遇，引发上半年"531"抢装潮，1-5月新增光伏 197.85GW、风电46.28GW，同比分别增149.97%、134.21%；6月后装机断崖式下跌，环比、同比均大幅 下行。随着补贴退坡与"十四五"规划收官，2026年风光装机延续颓势，预计分别达10000万千瓦、22000 万千瓦，同比降4.31%、29.00%。火电方面，2022-2024年煤电累计核准2.6亿千瓦，超额完成目标，受 24个月建设周期影响，2026年迎投产高峰，年均投产超8000万千瓦。 2026电改突破：市场化与现货化双轮驱动 (一)电源市场化：新能源与核电入市加速 截至2025年底，26个省区市公布新能源机制竞价结果，多数省份以竞价上限或接近上限成交，仅少数地 区下限成交，多数竞价结果接近燃煤基准价；13个地区机制电量使用率不足80%，支撑竞价表现。核电 入市范围扩大，"十四五"后半段年均核准不低于10台，2027年后迎投产潮，2026年广东、广西、福建多 地核电全面入市，浙江新增50%核电电量参与交易。 电力行业正步入转型 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that by 2026, the electricity industry will see a shift towards "investment rationalization, power marketization, and electricity price spot trading" as key trends [1] - The investment in power generation is becoming more rational, with expectations that installed capacity will peak by 2025. The report notes a significant cooling in new energy investments while thermal power is entering an investment peak [2] - The report anticipates that coal power will experience a "turnaround" due to stable coal prices, significant growth in electricity generation, and higher-than-expected spot electricity prices [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the marketization of power generation and the spot trading of electricity will be crucial. Competitive bidding results for new energy projects are favorable, and nuclear power is increasing its market entry ratio [3] - The "1502" document has loosened the previous electricity pricing model, enhancing the weight of spot trading and shifting the focus from long-term to flexible pricing [4] - The analysis indicates that while new energy installations may slow down, thermal power generation is expected to see significant growth, with an increase in electricity generation from thermal sources projected from -37.8 billion kWh in 2025 to 135.6 billion kWh in 2026, representing a growth rate of 2.20% [5][6] Group 3 - The report suggests that high-quality leading power central enterprises are likely to achieve excellent performance during the supply-demand easing and declining electricity price cycle, with a focus on companies like Guodian Power and China Resources Power [7] - Coal-electricity integrated operators are expected to see a recovery in 2026, with stable performance and high dividend attributes, making them attractive investment targets [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The power industry is entering a new phase characterized by rational investment, market-oriented power generation, and spot pricing for electricity [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant cooling in new energy investments, while thermal power is expected to reach its investment peak by 2026 [5][17]. - The introduction of the "1502" document is expected to shift the electricity pricing model towards a more flexible, market-driven approach, enhancing the role of spot trading [3][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Industry Investment and Capacity Situation - Investment in new energy has notably decreased, while thermal power investment continues to grow. The peak for thermal power investment is anticipated in 2026 [5][17]. - Monthly capacity additions show a stark contrast before and after the "531" policy, with thermal power gradually approaching its production peak [5][10]. 2. New Trends in Electricity Reform for 2026 - Market-oriented power generation is gaining traction, with competitive bidding results for new energy projects being favorable. Nuclear power is also increasing its market entry ratio [3][29]. - The "1502" document has loosened the previous pricing model, significantly increasing the weight of spot trading in electricity transactions [3][29]. 3. Analysis of the Second Half of Electricity Reform - New energy capacity additions are expected to slow significantly, while thermal power generation is projected to see substantial growth. The report estimates an increase in thermal power generation from a decline of 37.8 billion kWh in 2025 to an increase of 135.6 billion kWh in 2026, representing a growth rate of 2.20% [3][10]. - The annual long-term contract price decline is more significant than expected, creating potential profit opportunities for thermal power in the spot market [3][10]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the challenges faced by thermal power may reverse, with a focus on high-quality leading companies and integrated coal-power operators. The expected stabilization of coal prices and significant growth in thermal power generation are key factors for this turnaround [3][10][29]. - Recommended companies include major state-owned enterprises in the power sector and integrated coal-power operators, which are expected to show resilience and high dividend attributes [3][10].