食品饮料 2026 年年度策略汇报 20251230 摘要 顺周期板块需求承压，细分龙头业绩底部不明，建议观望。零售渠道型 公司（如万辰、鸣鸣很忙）及品牌型公司（盐津、卫龙）渠道扩张逻辑 不变，饮料行业关注东鹏特饮调整机会，安琪酵母出海和成本改善逻辑 支撑估值。 高分红及经营改善方面，推荐千禾味业和益海国际。千禾味业预计 2026 年弹性较大，益海国际在港股 15 倍市盈率下拥有 6%股息率，有 望受益于餐饮恢复带来的估值提升空间。 内需相关度高的顺周期板块（白酒、啤酒、餐饮供应链）目前处于历史 低点，市场情绪悲观。建议 2026 年一季度至二季度布局茅台，燕京啤 酒及青岛啤酒港股底部机会，餐饮供应链关注安井食品。 大众品板块推荐高景气细分赛道（零食量贩店、魔芋类产品、电解质饮 料），网点铺货和单点产出提升空间大的标的（万辰、卫龙、东鹏特 饮），以及估值便宜且具有潜力的企业（卫龙）。 东鹏饮料在货架管理和冰柜覆盖率方面表现出色，SKU 持续丰富扩展， 收入增速有望提升。中长期来看，东鹏在能量饮料行业的竞争格局相对 稳定，有望逐步替代红牛的市场份额。 Q&A 2026 年食品饮料行业的整体投资策略是什么？ 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beverage industry in China is showing signs of stability and growth, with various companies reporting positive performance across multiple product lines, although there are notable disparities in performance among different categories [1][2][3] Company Performance - China Wangwang reported total revenue of 11.108 billion yuan for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, with dairy and beverage products leading the revenue streams [1] - Wahaha announced a revenue increase of 500 million yuan for 2025, with water products continuing to be a strong growth driver [2] - Genki Forest achieved a 26% year-on-year growth in overall performance for 2025, maintaining double-digit growth for three consecutive years [2] Product Category Insights - Wangwang's beverage segment saw a doubling in sales, with new products contributing nearly 50% to the beverage category's revenue [1] - The performance of functional beverages is on the rise, driven by increasing consumer demand for energy and electrolyte replenishment across various daily scenarios [3][4] - Health-conscious products like sugar-free tea and electrolyte water are gaining traction, particularly among younger demographics [3] Market Trends - The beverage sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with some companies like Quan Yang Quan reporting revenue and net profit growth, while others focusing on plant-based and dairy beverages face declines [2][4] - Analysts predict that the beverage industry will see a recovery in demand, with expectations of mid-to-high single-digit growth in 2026, influenced by market demand and raw material prices [5]

Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of approximately 4.848 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.23%, and a net profit of about 980 million yuan, up 47.62% year-on-year [1] - The strong growth of the "Dongpeng Water" brand, launched in 2023, significantly contributed to the company's performance, with its revenue share increasing from 4.53% in 2024 to 11.76% in 2025 [1] - The electrolyte water segment is becoming increasingly popular in the beverage industry, with competitors like Master Kong and Yuanqi Forest also entering the market [1] Revenue and Market Position - Dongpeng Beverage's flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, continues to account for over 80% of revenue, while the new electrolyte drink has rapidly gained market share [1] - In 2024, Dongpeng Special Drink's market share in China's energy drink sector increased from 43.0% in 2023 to 47.9% [2] - The company has established a network of over 3,000 distributors and more than 4 million retail outlets, enabling deep market penetration from urban to rural areas [2] Product and Channel Strategy - The company has 13 production bases nationwide to ensure rapid distribution and stable supply of products [2] - The "Heavy Customers and Others" segment saw a revenue increase of 53.26% year-on-year, reaching 529 million yuan, which includes online and overseas business [2] International Expansion - Dongpeng Beverage has begun exporting products to countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and the United States, indicating a focus on international markets [3] - The company submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in April 2023 to enhance its capital strength and global brand image [3] - New production bases in Hainan and Kunming are being developed as key hubs for Southeast Asian markets, with plans to explore North America, Europe, and the Middle East [3]