Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities maintains a "buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) due to its leading position in the aluminum industry and the expected rise in aluminum prices, leading to upward revisions in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 81.04 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.36 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 35% [1] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.73 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 5.8%, 5.6%, and 3.4% compared to previous estimates [1] Group 2: Sales and Pricing - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached approximately 2.906 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while the sales volume of alumina products was 6.368 million tons, up 15.6% year-on-year [2] - The average selling prices for aluminum alloy and alumina products were 17,853 yuan/ton and 3,243 yuan/ton respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 10.3% [2] Group 3: Market Conditions - As of August 25, 2025, the domestic price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, reflecting a 4.7% increase since the beginning of the year [3] - The domestic aluminum consumption is projected to reach 54.35 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46%, and a 3.06% increase when excluding export products [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company plans to repurchase shares totaling no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars, demonstrating confidence in its future prospects and long-term value [4] - The company declared a dividend of 1.02 Hong Kong cents per share on June 13, 2025, with a total dividend of 1.61 Hong Kong cents per share for the 2024 fiscal year, compared to 0.63 Hong Kong cents per share in 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% based on the closing price on the ex-dividend date [4] Group 5: Regulatory Environment - The aluminum smelting industry is moving closer to being included in the national carbon market, with guidelines for greenhouse gas emissions reporting and verification being publicly solicited [5] - The carbon emissions from electrolytic aluminum production using thermal power are approximately 13 tons per ton of aluminum, compared to only 1.8 tons when using hydropower, indicating potential cost pressures for thermal power aluminum production [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao's profitability forecast has been raised due to the expected increase in aluminum prices, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 23.37 billion, 25.20 billion, and 27.77 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 3.9%, 1.9%, and 1.7% [1] - The company's half-year performance for 2025 is expected to exceed market expectations, with a projected net profit increase of approximately 35%, reaching around 12.36 billion yuan [1] - The growth in the company's half-year performance is attributed to the rise in prices of aluminum alloy and alumina products compared to the same period in 2024, along with an increase in sales volume [1] Group 2 - The company has a stable supply of raw materials, with joint ventures in Guinea for bauxite mining, which is expected to provide new growth opportunities [2] - The Simandou iron ore project is anticipated to be delivered by the end of 2025 and is expected to enhance investment returns for China Hongqiao [2] Group 3 - The company has an integrated layout across the aluminum industry chain, with a domestic alumina production capacity of 17.5 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of approximately 6.46 million tons [3] - The company has announced a dividend of 1.02 HKD per share for 2025, with a cumulative dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% based on the closing price on the ex-dividend date [3] Group 4 - The electrolytic aluminum industry is moving closer to being included in the national carbon market, which may lead to changes in production costs and encourage energy-saving measures within the industry [4] - The carbon emissions from electrolytic aluminum production using thermal power are significantly higher compared to those using hydropower, which may impact pricing strategies [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 95.2% [1] - The increase in revenue to 156.17 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, was driven by both volume and price increases across product lines, particularly in alumina [1] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, resulting in a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, reflecting a dividend yield of 10.7% based on the closing price on March 14, 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, with a net profit of 22.37 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from 11.46 billion yuan in 2023 [4] - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached 5.837 million tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of 17,550 yuan per ton, up 6.6% [1] - The alumina sales volume was approximately 10.921 million tons, a 5.3% increase, with an average selling price of 3,420 yuan per ton, up 33.6% [1] Market Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to improve from a surplus of 490,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 350,000 tons by 2026 [2] - The report indicates that the price of coal has decreased, which may support profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 22.49 billion yuan and 24.73 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 3.2% and 9.8% [3] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 5.9, 5.4, and 4.9 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's leading position in the aluminum industry [3]