截至2025年8月25日，国内电解铝价格为20820元/吨，较年初提升4.7%。根据阿拉丁预测，从2025年主 要铝消费指标增速来看，预计铝材净出口、光伏、房屋建筑为拖累项。新能源汽车、输电线、空调等消 费品有望保持较快增长，仍将发挥对铝消费增长的基础性作用。预计2025年国内铝消费总量5435.49万 吨，同比+1.46%，剔除出口产品后，预计国内铝消费同比增速+3.06%。 高额回购彰显信心，高股息持续强化股东回报 基于对集团未来前景及长期价值的信心，公司根据市况不时于公开市场购回本公司股份，计划购回总金 额不低于30亿港元。公司2025年6月13日派发股息每股102港仙，2024年度累计派息每股161港仙(2023年 度：每股63港仙)。按照2025年5月21日除权除息日收盘价计算，公司股息率为11%。 电解铝纳入全国碳市场渐行渐近 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，考虑到中国宏桥(01378)铝行业龙头地位，维持"增持"评级。 因铝价中枢价格有望抬升，上调公司盈利预测，预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为247.3亿元/266.0亿 元/287.1亿元，分别上调5.8%/5.6%/3.4%， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao's profitability forecast has been raised due to the expected increase in aluminum prices, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 23.37 billion, 25.20 billion, and 27.77 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 3.9%, 1.9%, and 1.7% [1] - The company's half-year performance for 2025 is expected to exceed market expectations, with a projected net profit increase of approximately 35%, reaching around 12.36 billion yuan [1] - The growth in the company's half-year performance is attributed to the rise in prices of aluminum alloy and alumina products compared to the same period in 2024, along with an increase in sales volume [1] Group 2 - The company has a stable supply of raw materials, with joint ventures in Guinea for bauxite mining, which is expected to provide new growth opportunities [2] - The Simandou iron ore project is anticipated to be delivered by the end of 2025 and is expected to enhance investment returns for China Hongqiao [2] Group 3 - The company has an integrated layout across the aluminum industry chain, with a domestic alumina production capacity of 17.5 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of approximately 6.46 million tons [3] - The company has announced a dividend of 1.02 HKD per share for 2025, with a cumulative dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% based on the closing price on the ex-dividend date [3] Group 4 - The electrolytic aluminum industry is moving closer to being included in the national carbon market, which may lead to changes in production costs and encourage energy-saving measures within the industry [4] - The carbon emissions from electrolytic aluminum production using thermal power are significantly higher compared to those using hydropower, which may impact pricing strategies [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 95.2% [1] - The increase in revenue to 156.17 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, was driven by both volume and price increases across product lines, particularly in alumina [1] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, resulting in a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, reflecting a dividend yield of 10.7% based on the closing price on March 14, 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, with a net profit of 22.37 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from 11.46 billion yuan in 2023 [4] - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached 5.837 million tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of 17,550 yuan per ton, up 6.6% [1] - The alumina sales volume was approximately 10.921 million tons, a 5.3% increase, with an average selling price of 3,420 yuan per ton, up 33.6% [1] Market Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to improve from a surplus of 490,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 350,000 tons by 2026 [2] - The report indicates that the price of coal has decreased, which may support profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 22.49 billion yuan and 24.73 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 3.2% and 9.8% [3] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 5.9, 5.4, and 4.9 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's leading position in the aluminum industry [3]