Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The current sugar market is in a low - level oscillating phase under strong supply pressure and strong cost support. The core contradiction lies in the game between the supply pressure brought by the northern hemisphere's production increase and the domestic pressing peak, and the cost support and short - covering triggered after the price falls below the cost line. In the short term, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Weekly Review**: The 11 - sugar continuous contract closed at 14.26 cents/pound, down 3.19% week - on - week. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract closed at 5,248 yuan/ton, up 1.31% week - on - week. The spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all increased slightly. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 34.55% to 72 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.72% to 14,119, and the effective forecast decreased by 32.58% to 89. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 2.39% to 14,208. The non - commercial long positions in CFTC decreased by 0.26%, short positions increased by 6.80%, and the net long positions decreased by 5.94%. The proportion of bullish sentiment in the Zhengzhou sugar market doubled to 20%, and the proportion of bearish sentiment decreased by 10 percentage points to 50% [4]. - **Domestic Futures and Spot**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **Raw Sugar Futures**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Main Producing Areas in China**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Main Producing Areas in China**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **China's Sugar Import and Export**: The import profit margin has expanded. The profit of Thai sugar within the quota increased by 2.74% to 1,798 yuan/ton, and the profit outside the quota increased by 9.1% to 707 yuan/ton [2]. - **Main Importing Countries of China's Sugar**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **Cost and Profit of China's Sugar Imports**: The processing cost of sugar from Vietnam and Thailand within and outside the quota decreased slightly. The import profit increased, especially the profit outside the quota. The Thai sugar's premium increased by 17.98%, and the shipping cost remained unchanged [28]. 3. International Market Fundamentals - **Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **Sugar Production in Brazil**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **Ethanol Production in Brazil**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **Sugar Import and Export in Brazil**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text. - **International Raw Sugar Premium and Shipping Cost**: There is no detailed content provided in the given text.

Group 1: Sugar Production Forecast - StoneX forecasts that sugar production in Brazil's central-south region for the 2026/27 season will reach 42.1 million tons, an increase of 5.7% from the previous year [1] - The cane crushing volume in the central-south region is expected to be 620.5 million tons, reflecting a growth of 3.6% [1] Group 2: Sugar Profit Margins in China - As of September 23, the profit margin for white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 1,656 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 467 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - For white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar, the profit margin is about 1,677 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 494 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] Group 3: Sugar Export and Market Sentiment - In the third week of September 2025, Brazil exported a total of 2.4079 million tons of white sugar, down from 3.8795 million tons in the same period last year, with a daily average shipment of 160,500 tons, a decrease of 13.11% year-on-year [1] - Domestic market sentiment is currently pessimistic, with recent price adjustments in both production areas and processed sugar [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The raw sugar market is experiencing a rebound, with main contract prices rising above 16 cents per pound, but supply pressures remain [2] - The sugar market is expected to face a surplus of 2.77 million tons starting from October 2025/26, following a shortage of 4.67 million tons in 2024/25 [3] - Short-term support for Zheng sugar is around 5,500 CNY/ton, with ongoing efforts to find a bottom in prices [3]