1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market is in an oversupply cycle in 2025, and the bearish situation is difficult to break. The market focus in the second half of 2025 will be on Brazil's 25/26 crushing season output, India and Thailand's 25/26 output estimates and actual production, India's export expectations, domestic sugar consumption and inventory, 25/26 domestic sugar production estimates, and import policies [1]. - In the third quarter, the market may first trade on Brazil's potential production cut, which could drive up sugar prices. The domestic sugar price has support around 5300 yuan/ton, and the overseas market has support at 15.2 cents/pound. However, when the market supply returns to Asia, the market will face pressure again [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the SR2601 price is expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5600 yuan/ton, showing an overall downward - trending oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - In the first half of 2025, the sugar market fluctuated widely. Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) fluctuated between 5600 - 6100 yuan/ton, and raw sugar fluctuated between 16.2 - 19.76 cents/pound. The market was mainly influenced by India's sugar supply and exports in the 24/25 season, China's import restrictions on syrup and premixed powder, China's sugar supply, and production estimates for Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 season [1]. - In the second half of 2025, the market will focus on Brazil's 25/26 crushing season output, India and Thailand's 25/26 output estimates and actual production, India's export expectations, domestic sugar consumption and inventory, 25/26 domestic sugar production estimates, and import policies [1]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, the sugar market declined in an oscillatory manner. Zheng sugar fluctuated between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton, and raw sugar fluctuated between 16 - 17.6 cents/pound [3]. - The price fluctuations in July were due to lower - than - expected Chinese import data in June, potential low actual arrivals of imported sugar in July, delayed concentrated production of refined sugar until August - September, the rebound of Brazilian ethanol prices which restricted the continuous increase of the sugar - making ratio, and the impact of rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region on the sugarcane harvest progress [3][4]. - The price fluctuations in August were influenced by factors such as the arrival of imported sugar, the shift of the main contract from 09 to 01, concerns about the quality of Brazilian sugarcane, a high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, a large volume of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports, and expectations of increased production in India and Thailand [7]. - The price decline in September was mainly due to the good prospects of sugarcane harvest in India and Thailand, which continuously suppressed domestic and international sugar prices [5]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.3.1 China Market - **Inventory and Supply Pressure**: The 24/25 crushing season in China produced 1116.21 million tons of sugar, putting significant supply pressure. As of the end of August, the national inventory was 116.23 million tons, and the final carry - over inventory was estimated to be 56.23 million tons [7][10]. - **Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 262 million tons of sugar. The 9 - 12 month import volume in 2025 is expected to be at least 250 million tons, with importers likely to import more in September - October. The estimated import volumes for September - December 2025 are 70 million tons, 65 million tons, 60 million tons, and 55 million tons respectively [12][13]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder**: In 2025, the import volume of syrup and premixed powder is expected to be over 100 million tons. The tax policies for imports have changed, with some countries having different tax rates and regulations [19][21]. - **25/26 Crushing Season Production**: The estimated national sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season is 1155 million tons, an increase of 38 million tons compared to the previous season. Production in different regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang is expected to change to varying degrees [23]. 3.3.2 Brazil - **Production**: As of the end of August in the 25/26 crushing season, Brazil's central - southern region had cumulatively processed 403.9 million tons of sugarcane, a 4.78% decrease year - on - year. The estimated total sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season is about 44.56 million tons [25][26]. - **Export**: As of the end of August, Brazil had exported 14.5119 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 crushing season. The estimated export volume from September 2025 to March 2026 is about 17.3 million tons, and the carry - over inventory at the end of the 25/26 crushing season is estimated to be 4.3 million tons [28]. 3.3.3 India - **Production**: Based on current crop growth and rainfall, India's 25/26 crushing season sugarcane production may reach about 487 million tons, an 8% increase compared to the 24/25 season. Different institutions estimate India's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season to be between 3230 - 3490 million tons [30][31]. - **Export**: If India produces 34.9 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 crushing season, after subtracting 4.5 million tons for ethanol use, the net sugar production will be 30.4 million tons. Assuming domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of 7.284 million tons. If 2 million tons are exported, the ending inventory will remain at 5.284 million tons [33][34]. 3.3.4 Thailand - **Production**: Thailand's 25/26 crushing season sugarcane planting area may reach 1.68 million hectares, an increase of over 8%. The sugar production is expected to be between 10.3 - 11.4 million tons [36]. - **Export**: Thailand's domestic sugar consumption is relatively stable, and it is the world's second - largest sugar exporter. The estimated export volume in the 25/26 crushing season is 6.8 million tons, but it may face competition from India and Brazil [38]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 Sugar Valuation Feedback - **Zheng Sugar Valuation**: Calculated based on a 510 yuan/ton sugarcane purchase price, the production cost of sugar in Guangxi is about 5580 yuan/ton, with a cost range of 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton. The current futures price is below the cost line, and the Zheng sugar futures price is usually lower than the Guangxi spot price. The current low price of the SR01 contract still has room to fall [40][41][42]. - **Raw Sugar Valuation**: Based on cost considerations, the ICE raw sugar price has strong support around 15.2 cents/pound. However, historically, during periods of global sugar oversupply, the futures price may break through the cost line. Different countries may adopt different policies in response to low sugar prices [44][45]. 3.4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **China's 25/26 Crushing Season Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 25/26 crushing season, unless there are significant policy changes, the sugar price is likely to remain weak. The estimated production is 1155 million tons, the import volume is 500 million tons, and the syrup and premixed powder conversion is 80 million tons. The supply is expected to exceed demand [48][50]. - **Global 25/26 Crushing Season Supply - Demand Balance**: The global sugar supply - demand structure in the 25/26 crushing season has changed from a slight shortage in the 24/25 season to a significant oversupply. Most institutions predict an oversupply, and the global oversupply situation is expected to be significant [51].

国际市场方面，文华财经数据显示，截至9月5日收盘，ICE原糖期货主力合约价格报26.59美分/磅，涨 幅2.82%，盘中一度触及每磅26.94美分，刷新了2011年10月份以来新高。 卓创资讯白糖分析师孙悦在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，今年国内白糖市场价格上涨主要受到供 应端的利多驱动，产量和进口量双降导致市场供应趋紧。从国内产量角度来看，2022年至2023年榨季全 国产糖897万吨，同比减少6.17%，主要由于主产区广西减产。广西作为国内白糖主产区，其糖料面积 和糖产量均占全国的60%左右。2022年下半年广西干旱天气频发，高温少雨天气影响甘蔗生长，2022年 至2023年榨季广西糖产量同比下降13.89%至527万吨。 "从进口角度来看，国际糖价持续走高，导致进口糖成本增加，国内进口积极性有所降低。海关总署数 据显示，截至7月底，2022年至2023年榨季中国累计进口白糖298万吨，同比减少23%。"孙悦说。 揭冲补充表示，国内市场方面，随着白糖消费旺季到来，中秋备货需求强劲，白糖下游需求出现回暖迹 象，与供给因素共同拉动了糖价重心上移。同时，国内白糖价格持续走强也与国际白糖期价走高有关。 从全球市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International sugar market: As the production of the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season in Brazil progresses, the increasing supply from Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere continue to suppress international sugar prices. However, the low cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil and the signal of increased demand may provide some upward momentum for international sugar prices. Technically, the raw sugar price is oscillating and rebounding, but the rebound space is still limited [4]. - Domestic sugar market: The spot price of the domestic sugar market fluctuates slightly. Although the domestic - international sugar price spread is widening, the high domestic sugar production and sales rate and the appearance of import profits outside the quota are the main factors suppressing the sugar price. The new industrial inventory is in the destocking stage, which supports the domestic sugar price. It is expected that the sugar price will still show an oscillating trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display - Price changes: ICE raw sugar main contract rose from 16.56 to 16.79, an increase of 1.39%; ICE white sugar main contract rose from 479.4 to 486.4, an increase of 1.46%; Zheng sugar main contract decreased from 5810 to 5805, a decrease of 0.09%. The processing sugar costs in Brazil and Thailand also increased to varying degrees, while the prices in some domestic regions such as Guangxi Nanning decreased slightly, and Yunnan Kunming increased slightly [2]. - Profit changes: The import processing sugar profits (both outside and within the quota) and the import disk profit all showed a slight decline [2]. - Basis and spread: The basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou is expected to oscillate weakly; the spreads between Zheng sugar 9 - 11 and 9 - 1 are expected to weaken from high levels; the delivery costs in Guangxi and Yunnan are expected to oscillate slightly [3]. 3.2 Market Key Data Overview 3.2.1 International Market Key Data Overview - Brazil: The bi - weekly production increased from 245.00 million tons to 285.00 million tons, an increase of 16.33%; the monthly export volume increased from 225.66 million tons to 336.18 million tons, an increase of 48.98%. The production is gradually increasing, but the low cane - to - sugar ratio may lead to lower - than - expected production [4]. - Thailand and India: The report shows the bi - weekly cumulative production data of Thailand and India, but no specific analysis of the changes is provided [31][32]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market Key Data Overview - Production and sales: The domestic sugar production and sales rate increased from 65.22% to 72.69%, and the new industrial inventory entered the destocking stage. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5.57%, indicating that the spot inventory is low and the formation of warehouse receipts is slow [4]. - Import data: China's sugar import volume increased from 350,000 tons to 420,000 tons, a 20% increase; the import volume of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline month - on - month, but the June data has not been released [4]. - Downstream market: The report shows data such as the proportion of online retail in social consumer goods, the number of food industry enterprises, and the PPI of the sugar - making and downstream industries, but no specific analysis of the impact on the sugar market is provided [47][50]