2025年9月30日 南华期货白糖四季度展望 ——过剩周期延续 熊市困局难破 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章：观点概要 2025年上半年白糖市场宽幅震荡，可以拆分为三个阶段，郑糖波动大致区间5600-6100元/吨，原糖波动 区间在16.2-19.76美分/磅。市场主要围绕24/25年度印度糖供应变化、出口，中国进口糖浆及预混粉限制，中 国糖供应变化，以及25/26年度巴西估产、印度、泰国估产变化展开。 展望2025年下半年，市场的关注重点将围绕巴西25/26榨季产量变化，印度、泰国25/26榨季估产及产量 落地情况，印度出口预期变化，国内国产糖消费及库存变化、25/26榨季国产糖产量预估变化、进口糖及糖浆 预拌粉进口节奏及政策变化。整体看，由于印度泰国增产预期打的比较足，当前糖价被压制的过低，而巴西 存在一定的减产倾向，因此在三季度市场可能会先去交易巴西减产从而抬升糖价，国内糖价在5300一带是存 在一定支撑的，海外市场则会在15.2美分受到依托，而随着巴西交易的结束，市场供应重新回到亚洲地区 时，盘面的压力又会随之而来。 四季度SR26 ...

国际市场方面，文华财经数据显示，截至9月5日收盘，ICE原糖期货主力合约价格报26.59美分/磅，涨 幅2.82%，盘中一度触及每磅26.94美分，刷新了2011年10月份以来新高。 卓创资讯白糖分析师孙悦在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，今年国内白糖市场价格上涨主要受到供 应端的利多驱动，产量和进口量双降导致市场供应趋紧。从国内产量角度来看，2022年至2023年榨季全 国产糖897万吨，同比减少6.17%，主要由于主产区广西减产。广西作为国内白糖主产区，其糖料面积 和糖产量均占全国的60%左右。2022年下半年广西干旱天气频发，高温少雨天气影响甘蔗生长，2022年 至2023年榨季广西糖产量同比下降13.89%至527万吨。 "从进口角度来看，国际糖价持续走高，导致进口糖成本增加，国内进口积极性有所降低。海关总署数 据显示，截至7月底，2022年至2023年榨季中国累计进口白糖298万吨，同比减少23%。"孙悦说。 揭冲补充表示，国内市场方面，随着白糖消费旺季到来，中秋备货需求强劲，白糖下游需求出现回暖迹 象，与供给因素共同拉动了糖价重心上移。同时，国内白糖价格持续走强也与国际白糖期价走高有关。 从全球市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International sugar market: As the production of the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season in Brazil progresses, the increasing supply from Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere continue to suppress international sugar prices. However, the low cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil and the signal of increased demand may provide some upward momentum for international sugar prices. Technically, the raw sugar price is oscillating and rebounding, but the rebound space is still limited [4]. - Domestic sugar market: The spot price of the domestic sugar market fluctuates slightly. Although the domestic - international sugar price spread is widening, the high domestic sugar production and sales rate and the appearance of import profits outside the quota are the main factors suppressing the sugar price. The new industrial inventory is in the destocking stage, which supports the domestic sugar price. It is expected that the sugar price will still show an oscillating trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display - Price changes: ICE raw sugar main contract rose from 16.56 to 16.79, an increase of 1.39%; ICE white sugar main contract rose from 479.4 to 486.4, an increase of 1.46%; Zheng sugar main contract decreased from 5810 to 5805, a decrease of 0.09%. The processing sugar costs in Brazil and Thailand also increased to varying degrees, while the prices in some domestic regions such as Guangxi Nanning decreased slightly, and Yunnan Kunming increased slightly [2]. - Profit changes: The import processing sugar profits (both outside and within the quota) and the import disk profit all showed a slight decline [2]. - Basis and spread: The basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou is expected to oscillate weakly; the spreads between Zheng sugar 9 - 11 and 9 - 1 are expected to weaken from high levels; the delivery costs in Guangxi and Yunnan are expected to oscillate slightly [3]. 3.2 Market Key Data Overview 3.2.1 International Market Key Data Overview - Brazil: The bi - weekly production increased from 245.00 million tons to 285.00 million tons, an increase of 16.33%; the monthly export volume increased from 225.66 million tons to 336.18 million tons, an increase of 48.98%. The production is gradually increasing, but the low cane - to - sugar ratio may lead to lower - than - expected production [4]. - Thailand and India: The report shows the bi - weekly cumulative production data of Thailand and India, but no specific analysis of the changes is provided [31][32]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market Key Data Overview - Production and sales: The domestic sugar production and sales rate increased from 65.22% to 72.69%, and the new industrial inventory entered the destocking stage. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5.57%, indicating that the spot inventory is low and the formation of warehouse receipts is slow [4]. - Import data: China's sugar import volume increased from 350,000 tons to 420,000 tons, a 20% increase; the import volume of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline month - on - month, but the June data has not been released [4]. - Downstream market: The report shows data such as the proportion of online retail in social consumer goods, the number of food industry enterprises, and the PPI of the sugar - making and downstream industries, but no specific analysis of the impact on the sugar market is provided [47][50]