展望2026年全年，开源证券认为，食品饮料行业主线是底部回暖复苏，复苏节奏及力度与宏观经济相关性较大。按照复苏路径推演，2026年更多期望大众消 费保持韧性，经济活跃度提升带来商务消费提振。产业层面白酒企业已进入深度调整期，行业需求下行的结果已由终端经渠道传导至厂家，体现为酒企公司 报表业绩增速放缓。后续展望，酒厂仍克制压货以推进渠道库存去化，为长期健康发展奠定基础，但短期报表仍处于出清阶段。 配置方向，国金证券建议两个方向：1）品牌力突出、护城河深厚的高端酒（贵州茅台、五粮液），渠道势能仍处于上行期的山西汾酒，受益于大众需求强 韧性&乡镇消费提质升级趋势的稳健区域龙头。2）顺周期潜在催化的弹性标的（如泛全国化名酒古井贡酒、泸州老窖），有新产品、新渠道、新范式催化 的弹性酒企（如珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒等）。 国金证券研报指出，考虑到酒企目前普遍已降低对渠道的回款诉求、板块三季报超预期出清，整体预计当下至26年春节前便是行业价盘最为承压的时期。考 虑到此轮周期的动销底逐步探明，表观业绩压力正加速释放，动销反馈环比持续改善确定性强、当下正值自上而下政策窗口期，看好白酒板块的配置价值。 11月10日盘中，白酒板 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a pullback, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a decline of 0.79% as of the latest report [1][3] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Wuliangye, Zhujiang Beer, and Shui Jing Fang, have seen declines exceeding 2%, while others like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shanxi Fen Jiu have dropped over 1% [1][3] - Recent data indicates that the Food ETF has attracted significant net purchases, totaling 53.44 million yuan over the last five trading days and 145 million yuan over the past 20 days [1][3] Group 2 - Pacific Securities notes that the liquor sector is currently in a "fundamental bottoming + low valuation" phase, with potential for weak recovery in demand due to upcoming consumption peaks during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [3][4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the Food ETF's underlying index is 20.72, which is at a low point historically, suggesting a favorable time for investment [3][4] - Despite challenges, the liquor sector is expected to gradually improve as demand recovers and policies become more favorable, with a focus on the upcoming peak seasons for sales [4][5] Group 3 - The Food ETF (515710) is designed to track the CSI segmented food and beverage industry index, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in other beverage and food segments [5][6] - The ETF's top ten weighted stocks include major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, indicating a strong focus on established market leaders [5][6] - Investors can also consider connecting funds for the Food ETF to gain exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector has been underperforming compared to the booming AI sector, with the China Liquor Index down 3.06% this year and experiencing five consecutive weeks of decline [2][11]. Industry Performance - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519), traditionally the market leader, has recently been challenged by the new player, Cambrian (688256), which briefly surpassed Moutai's stock price, marking a significant event in the market [3]. - Historical instances of stocks surpassing Moutai, such as China Shipbuilding and Haipuri, have led to significant declines in their stock prices, with some experiencing drops of over 90% [4][5][6][7][8]. Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment cycle, with pressures from macroeconomic conditions and policy tightening affecting consumer demand [10][14]. - Despite the overall pressure, there are signs of a potential rebound in the white liquor sector, with some companies like Jiangjiu and Shendao showing varying degrees of recovery [13]. Recovery Signals - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that the white liquor industry is in the process of bottoming out, with expectations for a fundamental recovery by Q3 2025, contingent on various factors including inventory and pricing trends [14]. - Positive government policies aimed at boosting consumption are seen as a core driver for the industry's recovery, with multiple initiatives being rolled out to stimulate demand [15]. Valuation Insights - The white liquor sector is currently viewed as being at a valuation bottom, with low price-to-earnings ratios indicating potential for recovery as market sentiment stabilizes [17][20]. - Analysts from Dongxing Securities highlight that historical patterns suggest stock prices in the white liquor sector tend to recover before the fundamental performance improves, indicating a potential buying opportunity [18]. Future Outlook - The consensus among various securities firms, including Founder Securities and Guohai Securities, is optimistic regarding the white liquor sector's recovery, driven by policy support and improving fundamentals [21][22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the liquor sector raises questions about whether this is a temporary rebound or a genuine turning point for the industry [1] Market Performance - On August 25, the A-share liquor sector continued its strong performance, showing signs of recovery since mid-August, with a notable increase of over 2.5% on August 20 [3] Catalysts for Recovery - Positive signals from policy levels were released, with the State Council's meeting on August 18 emphasizing the need to "continuously stimulate consumption potential" and to "systematically eliminate restrictive measures in the consumption sector," boosting market confidence [4] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to enhance market expectations for liquor sector performance, as traditional festivals are significant consumption periods for liquor [4] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the CS liquor sector has fallen to the 4th percentile of the past 10 years, indicating relatively low valuation levels [5] Industry Fundamentals - The liquor industry is rapidly bottoming out, with leading companies demonstrating strong operational resilience despite overall industry pressures. The demand structure differs from previous adjustment periods, and with the recovery of macroeconomic conditions and consumer confidence, the industry is expected to enter a recovery phase [6] - The industry is still in a phase of active destocking, but sales pressure is gradually easing. Since August, the decline in liquor sales has narrowed, particularly in popular banquet scenarios like graduation parties and gatherings, with products priced below 300 yuan showing signs of recovery [6] Future Outlook - In the short term, the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to stabilize market demand, supported by policies aimed at stimulating consumption [7] - In the medium to long term, the trend of concentration towards leading brands in the liquor industry remains unchanged, with companies possessing brand advantages likely to navigate through economic cycles successfully [7] Investor Considerations - Several liquor companies are focusing on maintaining investor interests by implementing long-term and mid-term dividend plans. In the current interest rate environment, the liquor sector presents high long-term allocation value [8] - The fundamentals of leading liquor companies are stabilizing, and combined with consumption-promoting policies, the industry is gradually entering a phase of healthy recovery [8] Conclusion - With the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching and an improved policy environment, the fundamentals of the liquor sector are expected to continue recovering. Industry leaders are showing strong operational resilience and are likely to benefit first from the consumption recovery [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the liquor sector in A-shares has recently experienced a collective rise, indicating a potential recovery from previous downturns [2][4] - The China Securities Liquor Index rose nearly 6% over two trading days, with notable gains from companies like JiuGuiJiu and SheDe Liquor [2][5] - The recent policy support aimed at boosting domestic demand is a key driver for the sector's rebound, with significant emphasis on enhancing consumer spending [5][6] Group 2 - The liquor sector has seen a steady recovery since June, with continuous net inflows into liquor funds, totaling over 50 million yuan in the last three trading days [2][4] - The current valuation of the China Securities Liquor Index is at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.92, indicating potential for future appreciation [6][8] - The sector's dividend yield is competitive, with some companies offering yields above 4%, making it attractive for investors seeking stable returns [8][11] Group 3 - The upcoming traditional sales seasons, such as Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, are expected to further stimulate demand and sales in the liquor market [5][6] - The recovery of previously suppressed consumption scenarios, particularly in banquet bookings and gift purchases, is contributing to the positive outlook for the sector [5][11] - Institutional investors are shifting focus towards the liquor sector due to its performance certainty and significant valuation safety margin, suggesting a favorable investment environment [11]