Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that while the liquor industry is under pressure in the short term, a bottoming out is expected in the second half of 2025, with a recovery anticipated in 2026 [1] Liquor Industry - Most listed liquor companies have begun to gradually clear out inventory, suggesting that the second half of 2025 will represent the weakest phase for sales, lowest prices, and lowest market expectations [1] - The performance decline of listed companies is expected to be at its steepest during this period [1] - A clear trend of demand recovery is anticipated in the future, presenting opportunities for bottom-fishing in the liquor industry [1] Beer Industry - The beer industry is expected to see stable to slightly declining revenue and profits in 2026, influenced by factors such as the increasing share of non-immediate consumption channels and fragmented consumer demand [1] - Companies that are expected to perform well are those with strong market share growth, effective channel management, and robust product momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage ETF Tianhong (159736) is experiencing significant capital inflow and has reached a new high in share volume, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [3][4]. Fund Performance - As of October 27, the food and beverage ETF Tianhong (159736) has a total share volume of 7.86 billion, marking a one-year high [4]. - The fund has seen a net inflow of 117 million over the past nine days, reflecting robust demand [4]. Market Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1,700 yuan per bottle for the first time, signaling a significant adjustment in the domestic liquor market [4][5]. - The current wholesale price for Feitian Moutai is reported at 1,690 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day, with a cumulative decline of over 31% from its initial price [4]. Industry Analysis - CITIC Securities expresses optimism about bottom-fishing opportunities in the liquor industry, anticipating that the industry's fundamentals may stabilize by the third quarter of 2025 [6][7]. - Pacific Securities notes that the liquor industry is currently in a phase of supply clearing, with the third quarter expected to accelerate this process [8]. Key Events - A significant personnel change at Moutai Group has been announced, which may impact the company's strategy during this adjustment period [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the performance of the autumn liquor and food fair in 2025 meets expectations, with the industry actively embracing consumer demand and expanding market opportunities [1] Industry Outlook - CITIC Securities predicts that the industry's fundamental bottom may appear in the third quarter of 2025, with the third quarter of this year expected to be the most challenging period for industry sales, pricing, and market confidence [1] - The second half of this year is anticipated to be the most pressured period for the financial performance of listed liquor companies, but a gradual recovery trend is expected thereafter, presenting a favorable opportunity for bottom-fishing in the liquor industry [1] Beer Market Insights - The beer sector is expected to have a lower comparative base in the second half of the year, with stable pre-holiday inventory stocking [1] - However, due to increased competition intensity and the impact of alcohol restrictions, there is an expectation of certain pressures on the financial reports in the third quarter [1]