Core Viewpoint - The overall demand for the Chinese liquor industry is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with inventory increasing by 10-20% [1] Industry Summary - The consumption scenarios are still recovering, with banquet performance below expectations and gift demand decreasing. The government and business scenarios show a month-on-month improvement but still have a significant year-on-year gap [1] - For the upcoming Spring Festival in 2026, high channel inventory and weak demand are anticipated to create substantial pressure on sales [1] Brand Performance - **Moutai**: Normal repayment progress for distributors, with a slight decline in sales expected. The price for scattered bottles is around 1780 RMB, and for whole boxes, it is about 1835 RMB, showing a slight decrease compared to before the holiday [2] - **Wuliangye**: Expected repayment ratio of about 70%, with a sales decline of approximately 15%. The current price for Wuliangye is around 810-830 RMB [2] - **Guojiao 1573**: Anticipated repayment ratio of 60-70%, with a sales decline of 20-30%. The price for low-alcohol Guojiao 1573 is around 630 RMB, while high-alcohol is priced at 820-830 RMB [2] - **Fenjiu**: Expected repayment progress of 70-80%, with stable sales for glass Fenjiu. The price for Qinghua Fenjiu is around 330-360 RMB [3] - **Real Estate Liquor**: Brands like Gujing and Yanghe are experiencing sales declines of 10-30%, with inventory levels exceeding 50% of annual targets [3] Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to stabilize, with channel clearing potentially outpacing financial report clearing. Patience is advised for investment opportunities [4] - High dividend yield stocks from leading companies are seen as long-term investment value, with specific recommendations for Moutai, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while keeping an eye on Wuliangye and other brands [4]