盘面估值修复
Search documents
LPG:盘面估值修复,宏观风险仍存,丙烯:成本支撑,短期低位震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 01:38
Group 1: Report Title and Core View - The report is titled "LPG: Disk Valuation Repair, Macro Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Cost Support, Short - term Low - level Volatility" [1] - The core view is that the LPG disk valuation is being repaired but there are still macro risks, and propylene is supported by cost and will run with short - term low - level volatility [1] Group 2: LPG and Propylene Futures Data Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,318 yesterday with a 1.91% daily increase and 4,326 in the night session with a 0.19% increase; PG2512 closed at 4,174 yesterday with a 2.03% daily increase and 4,181 in the night session with a 0.17% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,084 yesterday with a 0.81% daily increase and 6,098 in the night session with a 0.23% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,125 yesterday with a 0.69% daily increase and 6,143 in the night session with a 0.29% increase [1] Position and Trading Volume - PG2511 had 18,142 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 1,241 from the previous day, and a position of 21,319, a decrease of 3,024 from the previous day; PG2512 had 67,025 contracts traded yesterday, an increase of 3,151 from the previous day, and a position of 94,237, an increase of 1,934 from the previous day; PL2601 had 5,624 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 4,499 from the previous day, and a position of 10,672, a decrease of 610 from the previous day; PL2602 had 2,625 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 1,745 from the previous day, and a position of 5,324, a decrease of 92 from the previous day [1] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG11 contract was 82 yesterday, compared to 203 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG11 contract was 142 yesterday, compared to 223 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 74 yesterday, compared to - 25 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 9 yesterday, compared to 40 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 59 yesterday, compared to - 10 the previous day [1] Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate was 68.8% this week, compared to 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1% this week, compared to 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9% this week, compared to 45.1% last week [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 4: Market News CP Paper Goods Prices - On October 22, 2025, the November CP paper goods price for propane was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 448 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The December CP paper goods price for propane was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [5] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH devices have maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Ningbo Jinfat New Material Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on September 29, 2025, and ending at the end of October 2025 [6] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, like Zhenghe Petrochemical starting maintenance on May 14, 2024, and ending in October 2025; Guangzhou Petrochemical starting a rotational inspection on October 17, 2025, and ending in early December 2025 [6]
LPG:盘面估值修复,宏观风险仍存,丙烯:短期低位震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:52
Group 1: Report Title and General Outlook - The report is titled "LPG: Disk Valuation Repair, Macro Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Short - term Low - level Volatility" dated October 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: LPG and Propylene Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4] Group 3: Market Information CP Paper Goods Prices - On October 21, 2025, the November CP paper goods price for propane was 440 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; butane was 440 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton. The December CP paper goods price for propane was 444 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton [5] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date, and Ningbo Jinfa New Material Co., Ltd. having its PDH Phase I device under maintenance from September 29, 2025, to the end of October 2025 [6] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many factories have device maintenance plans, like Zhenghe Petrochemical starting full - plant maintenance on May 14, 2024, ending in October 2025, and Guangzhou Petrochemical having a rotational inspection starting on October 17, 2025, ending in early December 2025 [6] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking LPG Futures Prices - PG2511 yesterday's closing price was 4,237, with a -0.02% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,249, with a 0.28% increase; PG2512 yesterday's closing price was 4,091, with a -0.12% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,098, with a 0.17% increase; PL2601 yesterday's closing price was 6,035, with a 0.15% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 6,044, with a 0.15% increase; PL2602 yesterday's closing price was 6,083, with a 0.20% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 6,092, with a 0.15% increase [1] LPG Futures Positions and Trading Volumes - PG2511 yesterday's trading volume was 19,383, a decrease of 4579 from the previous day, and the position was 24,343, a decrease of 5229; PG2512 yesterday's trading volume was 63,874, an increase of 15455, and the position was 92,303, an increase of 4851; PL2601 yesterday's trading volume was 10,123, an increase of 3177, and the position was 11,282, an increase of 53; PL2602 yesterday's trading volume was 4,370, an increase of 2046, and the position was 5,416, an increase of 465 [1] LPG Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG11 contract was 203 yesterday, compared to 242 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG11 contract was 223 yesterday, compared to 242 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was -25 yesterday, compared to -16 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 40 yesterday, compared to 49 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was -10 yesterday, compared to -1 the previous day [1] LPG Industry Chain Important Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 68.8%, compared to 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1%, compared to 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9%, compared to 45.1% last week [1]
LPG:盘面估值修复,宏观风险仍存,丙烯:供需偏宽松,短期弱势震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 01:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LPG, the disk valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks still exist [1]. - For propylene, the supply and demand are relatively loose, and it will experience short - term weak and volatile trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices and Changes**: PG2511 closed at 4,220 yesterday with a - 1.12% daily increase, and 4,253 at night with a 0.78% increase; PG2512 closed at 4,083 yesterday with a - 1.33% daily increase, and 4,119 at night with a 0.88% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,007 yesterday with a - 1.62% daily increase, and 6,073 at night with a 1.10% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,052 yesterday with a - 1.59% daily increase, and 6,131 at night with a 1.31% increase [1]. - **LPG Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: PG2511 had a trading volume of 45,662 yesterday, a decrease of 21,719 from the previous day, and an open interest of 35,905, a decrease of 6,215; PG2512 had a trading volume of 50,907 yesterday, a decrease of 6,036 from the previous day, and an open interest of 82,176, an increase of 3,605; PL2601 had a trading volume of 9,061 yesterday, an increase of 502 from the previous day, and an open interest of 11,788, an increase of 277; PL2602 had a trading volume of 3,426 yesterday, an increase of 734 from the previous day, and an open interest of 5,057, an increase of 222 [1]. - **LPG Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 280 yesterday, compared with 232 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 300 yesterday, compared with 262 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 153 yesterday, compared with 109 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 158 yesterday, compared with 84 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 118 yesterday, compared with 19 the previous day [1]. - **LPG Industrial Chain Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 68.8%, compared with 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1%, compared with 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 45.1%, compared with 46.1% last week [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]. 3.3 Market News - On October 17, 2025, the November CP paper - cargo price of propane was 447 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the November CP paper - cargo price of butane was 450 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the December CP paper - cargo price of propane was 450 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [5]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. The maintenance start times range from 2023 to 2025, and most of the end times are undetermined [6]. - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, including those of Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. The maintenance start times range from 2024 to 2025, and the end times vary, with some being undetermined [6].