| × | | --- | | 免责声明 10 | | --- | 能化板块研发报告 成本支撑，供需偏宽松 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2 月沥青盘面整体跟随原油成本走势但涨势弱于原油，近月沥青价格受 到刚需停滞等春节假期因素压制，整体在成本支撑及低供应低库存支撑下趋 稳，涨幅不大。委内原料缺口和成本抬升矛盾第一波驱动已在 1 月初实现， 后预期利多驱动需由旺季需求来实现但近端供应增量仍有压制。 【市场展望】 地缘波动加剧，沥青盘面表现为跟随原油波动但涨势弱于原油。各地区 春节后刚需暂未开始恢复，主营炼厂供应预期增长，近端沥青供需基本面环 比宽松。中期原料缺口预期及成本抬升仍存在，关注后期需求回升情况及原 料消耗情况。 【策略推荐】 1.单边：BU2606 回调布多。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：观望。 风险提示：美国与委内局势的发展、伊朗冲突发酵、宏观政策因素扰动。 研究员：吴晓蓉 邮 箱： wuxiaorong_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F03108405 投资咨询资格证号：Z002153 作者承诺 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从 业资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LPG, the disk valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks still exist [1]. - For propylene, the supply and demand are relatively loose, and it will experience short - term weak and volatile trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices and Changes**: PG2511 closed at 4,220 yesterday with a - 1.12% daily increase, and 4,253 at night with a 0.78% increase; PG2512 closed at 4,083 yesterday with a - 1.33% daily increase, and 4,119 at night with a 0.88% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,007 yesterday with a - 1.62% daily increase, and 6,073 at night with a 1.10% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,052 yesterday with a - 1.59% daily increase, and 6,131 at night with a 1.31% increase [1]. - **LPG Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: PG2511 had a trading volume of 45,662 yesterday, a decrease of 21,719 from the previous day, and an open interest of 35,905, a decrease of 6,215; PG2512 had a trading volume of 50,907 yesterday, a decrease of 6,036 from the previous day, and an open interest of 82,176, an increase of 3,605; PL2601 had a trading volume of 9,061 yesterday, an increase of 502 from the previous day, and an open interest of 11,788, an increase of 277; PL2602 had a trading volume of 3,426 yesterday, an increase of 734 from the previous day, and an open interest of 5,057, an increase of 222 [1]. - **LPG Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 280 yesterday, compared with 232 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 300 yesterday, compared with 262 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 153 yesterday, compared with 109 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 158 yesterday, compared with 84 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 118 yesterday, compared with 19 the previous day [1]. - **LPG Industrial Chain Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 68.8%, compared with 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1%, compared with 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 45.1%, compared with 46.1% last week [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]. 3.3 Market News - On October 17, 2025, the November CP paper - cargo price of propane was 447 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the November CP paper - cargo price of butane was 450 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the December CP paper - cargo price of propane was 450 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [5]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. The maintenance start times range from 2023 to 2025, and most of the end times are undetermined [6]. - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, including those of Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. The maintenance start times range from 2024 to 2025, and the end times vary, with some being undetermined [6].