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黑色金属数据日报-20251030
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the steel market remains positive, with prices rising. However, the demand lacks explosive power, and it is necessary to observe the evolution of contradictions. Carbon elements are expected to outperform iron elements in the fourth quarter [2]. - The market sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is warm, and prices are strong, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals, and more supply - demand changes should be monitored [2]. - The spot price of coking coal and coke is rising, and the coking coal 05 contract has reached a new high. Consider going long on the coking coal contract if the price retraces to the previous high and holds [4]. - For iron ore, the supply is stable, but there are risks of supply - demand imbalance in the fourth quarter. Short - term observation is recommended [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On October 29, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, JM2605, and J2605 were 7000, 12605, 6000, and 5000 yuan/ton respectively. The near - month contract closing prices of HC2601, RB2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3133.00, 3345.00, 804.50, and 1302.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - On October 29, the prices of steel products showed different degrees of increase. The sentiment in the market may be supported by the upcoming leaders' meeting. The steel inventory is decreasing seasonally, but there is still a high - output dilemma. It is recommended to observe the evolution of contradictions. Consider going long on the 01 contract when the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is below 150, and take rolling profit for the futures - cash reverse arbitrage [2][5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The market sentiment is warm, and prices are strong. However, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and negative feedback pressure may occur. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2][5]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading atmosphere in the port market has improved, and the prices of coking coal and coke are rising. The coking coal 05 contract has broken through the previous high. Fundamentally, the supply of coking coal is low, and the demand from steel mills is strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices on the futures side, and industrial customers can consider selling part of the spot due to the premium of the coke futures [4][5]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is within a reasonable range. There are risks of supply - demand imbalance in the fourth quarter due to high pig iron production. The expected increase in supply from Simandou restricts the price ceiling. Short - term observation is recommended [5].
黑色金属数据日报-20251027
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 06:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report's Core View - The steel industry is currently in a state where contradictions are not prominent, with prices weakly stable over the weekend. The market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions, and the focus is on the outcome of major - power leader meetings. The carbon element may outperform the iron element in the mid - fourth quarter [2]. - The rebound space of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon is limited, and prices tend to fluctuate. The overall bearish pressure on the black sector remains due to weak downstream demand [3][5]. - The coking coal and coke futures have challenged the "anti - involution" trading high again. However, there is great uncertainty about whether the coking coal futures can break through, and it is not recommended to chase the rise unilaterally [6]. - The iron ore industry is gradually accumulating contradictions. Short - term observation is recommended, considering the potential over - supply in the fourth quarter and the expected supply increase from Ximangdu [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - On October 24, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were presented, with specific price and percentage changes. The same information was also shown for near - month contracts such as RB2601 and HC2601 [1]. - Over the weekend, steel spot prices weakly rebounded by about 10 yuan, and trading volume was average. The market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions, and currently there is no consistent contradiction. The market is observing whether inventory will accumulate and whether steel mill profits will deteriorate further [2]. - For steel trading, a wait - and - see or oscillation approach is recommended for unilateral trading. For arbitrage, consider long positions when the 01 - contract coil - to - rebar spread is below 150. For futures - cash reverse arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking [8]. 3.2 Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon rebounded under certain circumstances such as acceptable supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a favorable macro environment. However, due to weak downstream demand, the rebound space is limited, and prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3][5]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, it is recommended to gradually take profit on previous long positions [8]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - On October 24, coking coal and coke contract closing prices, changes, and basis data were provided [1]. - The second round of price increases for coking coal and coke on the spot market has been implemented. The coking coal futures have challenged the previous high, but there is uncertainty about a breakthrough. It is not recommended to chase the rise unilaterally, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on part of their spot inventory when the futures price rises [6][8]. 3.4 Iron Ore - On October 24, iron ore contract closing prices, changes, and basis data were presented [1]. - The supply of iron ore is generally stable, but there may be an over - supply situation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [7][8].