Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The prices of L, PP, PVC, PX/PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, and caustic soda are expected to decline. The prices of these commodities will be affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [2][4]. Summary by Variety L - **Core View**: The price will experience a callback, and the industry can focus on inter - month or spot - futures reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Main Logic**: Spot prices have significantly declined, the basis has weakened, and the supply side may see a reduction in production due to raw material shortages. The parking ratio has increased to 11%. Geopolitical conflicts have raised the price center, but the short - term geopolitical premium is being reversed. The price range is estimated to be between 7400 - 7700 yuan/ton [2][9]. PP - **Core View**: The price will decline, and the industry can consider spot - futures or inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities. The contract is expected to be relatively resistant to decline in the olefin sector [2]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances have caused some MTO and PDH units to reduce their loads, and upstream maintenance efforts have increased significantly. The sharp rise in propane prices has compressed PDH profits to extremely low levels, providing strong cost support. The price range is expected to be between 7500 - 7800 yuan/ton [13]. PVC - **Core View**: The price will decline. The high inventory restricts the rebound space, and the market should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - **Main Logic**: Calcium carbide prices continue to rise, and profits in Shandong have turned negative. The high - inventory pattern persists, but the shortage of raw material ethylene may lead to a reduction in the load of global ethylene - based PVC units. Attention should be paid to changes in export order volumes. The price range is estimated to be between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton [17]. PX/PTA - **Core View**: The price will decline. With the possible alleviation of geopolitical conflicts, long positions should be closed for profit [4]. - **Main Logic**: The coordinated measures of G7 on crude oil strategic reserves and Trump's statement on the war have led to a decline in crude oil prices. TA has a relatively high valuation, and the processing fee is over 300 yuan/ton. The supply side has seen an increase in the load of some domestic units, while downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are showing improvement. The cost - side PX fundamentals are expected to improve, and TA is in a state of continuous inventory reduction. The price range of TA05 is between 5780 - 6350 yuan/ton [4][19]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: The price will decline. With the decline in oil - based costs, long positions should be closed for profit [4]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of geopolitical conflicts has cooled down, and crude oil prices have declined again. The supply side has seen a reduction in the load of domestic and overseas units, while the demand side is gradually recovering. Although port inventories are high, the expected reduction in imports may relieve port pressure. The price range of EG05 is between 4100 - 4420 yuan/ton [4][22]. Methanol - **Core View**: The price will decline. Geopolitical conflicts dominate the market trend, and long positions should be closed for profit [4]. - **Main Logic**: Methanol has a relatively high valuation. The domestic methanol load has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and overseas units are expected to reduce their loads. The import volume is expected to decline in February and March. The demand side is weakly stable, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price range of MA05 is between 2450 - 2600 yuan/ton [4][25]. Urea - **Core View**: The price will decline. The market is waiting for export policy guidance, with the expected decline in international oil and gas prices and the spring fertilizer demand [4]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have little impact on domestic urea prices. Urea has a relatively high valuation, with high profits and high production. The demand side has a weak current situation but a strong expectation, and social inventories are at a high level. The price range of UR05 is between 1800 - 1850 yuan/ton [4][29]. Caustic Soda - **Core View**: The price will decline. The high inventory restricts the rebound space [2]. - **Main Logic**: The spot fundamentals are still weak, and the market is reversing the geopolitical premium. The factory inventory is at the highest level in the same period, and the domestic operating rate has not changed much. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may lead to a reduction in the load of overseas units. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volumes. The price range is between 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton [2][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - L: Expected to open lower. Spot prices have risen sharply, and the basis has reached a record high. With oil prices rising and then falling, long positions should set trailing stops, and the industry can focus on reverse cash-and-carry opportunities. There are potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors and changes in supply and demand [1][8]. - PP: Expected to open lower. Oil prices are rising and then falling, and the basis has reached a record high. The industry can focus on reverse cash-and-carry or inter - month spread opportunities. Geopolitical disturbances may cause raw material shortages in marginal MTO and PDH devices, increasing upstream maintenance efforts. The cost side has strong support [1][11]. - PVC: Expected to open lower. Calcium carbide prices have stopped falling and rebounded, but high inventories limit the upside. There is a potential reduction in the load of global ethylene - based PVC due to raw material ethylene shortages. Attention should be paid to changes in export orders [1][15]. - PX/PTA: Expected to experience a callback. Trump's statement led to a significant decline in overnight crude oil prices, and the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering. TA has a relatively high valuation, and the supply side has seen some changes in domestic device operations. The downstream polyester industry is improving, and the cost side of PX is positive. The supply - demand balance is tight in April [3]. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Expected to experience a callback. Overnight crude oil prices have fallen significantly. The supply side has been affected by geopolitical military conflicts, with domestic device loads decreasing and overseas device maintenance increasing. The demand side is warming up, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease in March - April [3]. - Methanol: Expected to experience a callback. The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is expected to ease, and overnight crude oil prices have opened significantly lower. Methanol has a relatively high valuation. The supply side has seen a slight decline in domestic methanol loads, and overseas devices are expected to reduce their loads. The demand side is weak and stable, and the inventory in ports is relatively high [3]. - Urea: Expected to experience a callback. The geopolitical conflict has eased. Although there are arbitrage opportunities at home and abroad, urea exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing. Urea has a relatively high valuation, and the supply side has high production, while the demand side has a weak current situation but strong expectations. The inventory is at a high level, and the price is restricted by policies [3]. - Caustic Soda: Expected to open lower. The current in - plant inventory is at the highest level in the same period, and the domestic operation rate has not changed much. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has increased the expectation of load reduction in overseas devices. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export orders [1][33]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs L - **Market Data**: L05 closed at 7944 yuan/ton, up 3.3% from the previous day. The L05 basis was 1076 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 188 yuan/ton. The LL华北 price increased by 18.7% to 9020 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have risen sharply, and the basis has reached a record high. Oil prices are rising and then falling. In 2025, China imported 1.67 million tons of LL from 5 Persian Gulf countries (accounting for 35%), and the short - term blockage of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a reduction in imports. The upstream maintenance efforts have increased, and the downstream sentiment has improved [8]. PP - **Market Data**: PP05 closed at 8034 yuan/ton, up 3.0% from the previous day. The PP05 basis was 1579 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 349 yuan/ton. The PDH profit has increased significantly [9][10]. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices are rising and then falling, and the basis has reached a record high. Geopolitical disturbances may cause raw material shortages in marginal MTO and PDH devices, increasing upstream maintenance efforts. The propane price increase has compressed PDH profits, and the cost side has strong support [11]. PVC - **Market Data**: V05 closed at 5466 yuan/ton, up 3.6% from the previous day. The V05 basis was 234 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 111 yuan/ton. The price of calcium carbide has increased by 10.7% [13][14]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the Shandong double - ton profit has turned positive. High inventories limit the upside. There is a potential reduction in the load of global ethylene - based PVC due to raw material ethylene shortages. Attention should be paid to changes in export orders [15]. PX/PTA - **Market Data**: TA05 closed at 6070 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 200 yuan/ton. The polyester load has increased, and the PTA inventory is at a relatively low level [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the cost side has driven the strong rise of aromatic hydrocarbon - related products. The supply side has seen some changes in domestic device operations, and the downstream demand is seasonally warming up. The PX fundamentals are improving, and the supply - demand balance is tight in April [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions. The price range of TA05 is [6320 - 6928] [18]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Data**: EG05 closed at 4377 yuan/ton. The EG05 basis was - 112 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton. The port inventory is relatively high, but it is expected to decrease [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation of ethylene glycol has been repaired. The supply side has been affected by geopolitical military conflicts, with domestic device loads decreasing and overseas device maintenance increasing. The demand side is warming up, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease in March - April [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions. The price range of EG05 is [4400 - 4705] [21]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol主力 is at a high level in the past year. The comprehensive profit is - 156.8 yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 84 yuan/ton. The spot prices in the European and American methanol markets have risen [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device load has decreased but is still at a high level in the same period. Overseas devices are expected to reduce their loads. The demand side is weak and stable, and the port inventory is at a high level in the historical same period. The short - term geopolitical conflict intensity affects the market trend [23][24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions. The price range of MA05 is [2520 - 2800] [25]. Urea - **Market Data**: UR05 closed at 1847 yuan/ton. The Shandong small - particle urea basis was - 13 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 39 yuan/ton. The production capacity utilization rate is high, and the inventory is increasing [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Urea has a relatively high absolute valuation. The demand side has a weak current situation but strong expectations. The social inventory is increasing. Under the background of "export quota" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the price has an upper and lower limit. The market has expectations for spring fertilization and potential export speculation [27][28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions and buy out - of - the - money put options. The price range of UR05 is [1830 - 1900] [29]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: SH05 closed at 2442 yuan/ton. The SH05 basis was - 222 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was - 23 yuan/ton. The prices of caustic soda in different regions have increased to varying degrees [31][32]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot market fundamentals are still weak, and the futures price is at a premium. The current in - plant inventory is at the highest level in the same period, and the domestic operation rate has not changed much. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has increased the expectation of load reduction in overseas devices. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export orders [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the steel market remains positive, with prices rising. However, the demand lacks explosive power, and it is necessary to observe the evolution of contradictions. Carbon elements are expected to outperform iron elements in the fourth quarter [2]. - The market sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is warm, and prices are strong, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals, and more supply - demand changes should be monitored [2]. - The spot price of coking coal and coke is rising, and the coking coal 05 contract has reached a new high. Consider going long on the coking coal contract if the price retraces to the previous high and holds [4]. - For iron ore, the supply is stable, but there are risks of supply - demand imbalance in the fourth quarter. Short - term observation is recommended [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On October 29, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, JM2605, and J2605 were 7000, 12605, 6000, and 5000 yuan/ton respectively. The near - month contract closing prices of HC2601, RB2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3133.00, 3345.00, 804.50, and 1302.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - On October 29, the prices of steel products showed different degrees of increase. The sentiment in the market may be supported by the upcoming leaders' meeting. The steel inventory is decreasing seasonally, but there is still a high - output dilemma. It is recommended to observe the evolution of contradictions. Consider going long on the 01 contract when the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is below 150, and take rolling profit for the futures - cash reverse arbitrage [2][5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The market sentiment is warm, and prices are strong. However, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and negative feedback pressure may occur. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2][5]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading atmosphere in the port market has improved, and the prices of coking coal and coke are rising. The coking coal 05 contract has broken through the previous high. Fundamentally, the supply of coking coal is low, and the demand from steel mills is strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices on the futures side, and industrial customers can consider selling part of the spot due to the premium of the coke futures [4][5]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is within a reasonable range. There are risks of supply - demand imbalance in the fourth quarter due to high pig iron production. The expected increase in supply from Simandou restricts the price ceiling. Short - term observation is recommended [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of futures prices rising and then falling, with spot prices slightly increasing. There are positive factors in the macro - level, but the industry faces challenges such as high production and insufficient demand. The resolution of high - production issues requires time to accumulate contradictions [4] - The rebound space of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. They are affected by factors such as downstream demand, supply - demand balance, and cost [4] - For coking coal and coke, the spot procurement sentiment has slowed down, and the futures are challenging the "anti - involution" trading high. The supply - demand tightness may ease in the future [4] - For iron ore, industrial contradictions are gradually accumulating, and it is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of commodities. There may be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures prices rose and then fell on Tuesday, with spot prices slightly increasing and trading volume shrinking. The macro - level has positive factors, and the industry is in a seasonal destocking phase. However, demand lacks explosive power, and it will take time to resolve high - production problems. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for single - side trading, and observe the opportunity to go long on the spread between hot rolled coils and rebar when the 01 - contract spread is below 150 for arbitrage. Also, perform rolling stop - profit for cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Due to weak downstream demand, the black sector is under pressure. Although they rebounded under factors such as good supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a warm macro - environment, the rebound space is narrowing. The prices may fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading atmosphere is average, and a northwest coking enterprise has initiated the third price increase, but the mainstream coking enterprises have not responded. The procurement sentiment has slowed down. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating, and the prices of coking coal and coke on the disk are weakening. The supply - demand tightness may ease in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging for part of the spot when the coke disk is at a premium [4] Iron Ore - There are many trade disputes, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of negotiation results on commodities. The supply side has no major problems, but there may be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report's Core View - The steel industry is currently in a state where contradictions are not prominent, with prices weakly stable over the weekend. The market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions, and the focus is on the outcome of major - power leader meetings. The carbon element may outperform the iron element in the mid - fourth quarter [2]. - The rebound space of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon is limited, and prices tend to fluctuate. The overall bearish pressure on the black sector remains due to weak downstream demand [3][5]. - The coking coal and coke futures have challenged the "anti - involution" trading high again. However, there is great uncertainty about whether the coking coal futures can break through, and it is not recommended to chase the rise unilaterally [6]. - The iron ore industry is gradually accumulating contradictions. Short - term observation is recommended, considering the potential over - supply in the fourth quarter and the expected supply increase from Ximangdu [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - On October 24, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were presented, with specific price and percentage changes. The same information was also shown for near - month contracts such as RB2601 and HC2601 [1]. - Over the weekend, steel spot prices weakly rebounded by about 10 yuan, and trading volume was average. The market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions, and currently there is no consistent contradiction. The market is observing whether inventory will accumulate and whether steel mill profits will deteriorate further [2]. - For steel trading, a wait - and - see or oscillation approach is recommended for unilateral trading. For arbitrage, consider long positions when the 01 - contract coil - to - rebar spread is below 150. For futures - cash reverse arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking [8]. 3.2 Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon rebounded under certain circumstances such as acceptable supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a favorable macro environment. However, due to weak downstream demand, the rebound space is limited, and prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3][5]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, it is recommended to gradually take profit on previous long positions [8]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - On October 24, coking coal and coke contract closing prices, changes, and basis data were provided [1]. - The second round of price increases for coking coal and coke on the spot market has been implemented. The coking coal futures have challenged the previous high, but there is uncertainty about a breakthrough. It is not recommended to chase the rise unilaterally, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on part of their spot inventory when the futures price rises [6][8]. 3.4 Iron Ore - On October 24, iron ore contract closing prices, changes, and basis data were presented [1]. - The supply of iron ore is generally stable, but there may be an over - supply situation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [7][8].