Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong "counter - attack" of coking coal futures prices is related to supply - side low - valuation - matching production cuts, 6 - 7 month production and import seasonality, high - level iron - water production, and market expectation revisions. The futures price has changed from long - term discount to premium. Given the current small premium and the upcoming resumption of domestic coking coal mines, excessive bullish expectations for coking coal futures prices are not advisable. The valuation decline space caused by the previous concentrated short - view on coking coal futures prices will be significantly revised upwards [12][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Mongolian coal suspends customs clearance due to holidays, and the effect of domestic coal production cuts emerges - Recently, the trading of Mongolian coal has improved significantly due to the premium opportunity provided by the futures price. During the Naadam Festival from July 11th to July 15th, the three major Mongolian ports were closed for 5 days, leading to an expected short - term supply tightening. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port increased from 705 yuan/ton in the second half of the month to 740 - 750 yuan/ton [1] - Since May, domestic coking coal mines have successively cut production. State - owned large mines have poor sales and some mines are forced to cut production due to full storage; small mines have many accidents and the number of mines under suspension and rectification has increased since June; some private mines in certain regions have cut or even stopped production due to poor sales and production losses [1] - As production cuts continue and expand, the inventory of coking coal in some invisible links has been significantly digested, and the visible carbon element inventory has shown a significant decline since mid - June [3] 2. The sentiment of futures - spot trading surges, bringing vitality to spot trading - The reversal of futures price sentiment has provided space for futures - spot arbitrage and selling hedging, leading to a surge in futures - spot trading sentiment, which has driven the spot market of coking coal. The rate of unsuccessful auctions in the spot market has rapidly declined, and the prices of some coal types have rebounded significantly. For example, the price of lean coking coal in Shanxi has increased from 930 yuan/ton to 970 yuan/ton, and the coking coal warehouse - receipt prices in Shanxi (except Mongolian coal) have also risen to 875 - 920 yuan/ton [5] - The price of Australian imported low - sulfur main coking coal converted into warehouse - receipt price is close to the futures price, and the trading of imported coal at ports has become more active. On the 2nd, the price index of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal rose by 9.7 to 196.85. The significant improvement in coking coal spot liquidity, combined with the small - scale replenishment of downstream coking plants and steel mills, will promote coal mine sales and drive up prices [7][9] 3. High - level iron - water production is maintained during the off - season, and the "anti - involution" expectation protects steel - making profits - Thanks to the relatively weak prices of coke and iron ore and the continuous support of export resilience, the current steel prices and steel - making profit levels are not bad. During the off - season of construction demand, iron - water production has not significantly decreased and remains at a high level of 242,000 tons per day. Although there are expectations of phased production restrictions in Tangshan, the national iron - water production is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to profit incentives [10] - The widespread discussion of "anti - involution" has led to a good expectation of future steel - making profits in the market. In the past, during the expectation stage of production restrictions or flat - control, both steel prices and raw material prices were driven upwards. The "anti - involution" expectation has also led to a re - discussion of the valuation repair of bulk commodities with over - capacity and valuations close to cost support [12]

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 1, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 62,140 yuan/ton and closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 1.15% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 398,387 lots, and the open interest was 326,676 lots, a decrease of 4,148 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 592,395 lots, a decrease of 4,592 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 9,815 lots from the previous day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.82. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 22,940 lots, an increase of 312 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 1, 2025, the quotation of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 - 62,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,200 - 60,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot inventory was 136,800 tons, including 59,000 tons in smelters, 40,600 tons in downstream, and 37,200 tons in other inventories. The spot transaction price center of lithium carbonate remained stable for the time being. The lithium carbonate market continued the basic pattern of oversupply, with prominent supply - demand contradictions. The market had sufficient available goods, and the inventory pressure was not effectively alleviated. Downstream cathode plants had an expected increase in production in July, but currently mainly made rigid purchases, with no obvious increase in inventory - building willingness, and the market had strong wait - and - see sentiment and few transactions [2]. - In June, the domestic lithium carbonate market significantly increased production. The monthly total output increased by 8% month - on - month and 18% year - on - year, reaching 78,090 tons [2]. Group 2: Strategy - Overall, the fundamentals were weak, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. The production of material factories in July had a certain increase, providing short - term support for consumption. The warehouse receipts would be cancelled in July, and recent news of production cuts on the supply side led to enlarged fluctuations in the disk. In the medium term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and the willingness to sell for hedging after a rebound was strong [3]. - For trading strategies, it was recommended to sell for hedging at high prices in the unilateral market, and there were no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [5]. Group 3: Figures - There were figures including the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%), the price of domestic industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%), the weekly total output of lithium carbonate, the weekly statistical inventory of lithium carbonate, the statistical inventory of lithium ore, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Price Trend**: This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices first rose and then declined, with the main contract switching to 2509. The 2507 contract closed at 59,940 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2509 contract closed at 59,800 yuan/ton, down 1,120 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price increased by 450 yuan/ton to 60,650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is on the rise as some smelting capacities resume production and salt - lake output increases seasonally. Lithium ore prices have stabilized, with the 6% grade lithium concentrate price rising slightly by 3 dollars to 629 dollars/ton. This week, lithium carbonate production was 18,127 tons, a 3.75% increase from last week. In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle production and sales in May were good, with year - on - year increases of 35% and 36.9% respectively. The domestic "531" rush - to - install phenomenon in the energy - storage sector was obvious in May, but downstream procurement remains cautious. Inventory has increased, with a 0.84% increase in total lithium carbonate inventory this week [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. For the 2507 contract, the price is expected to range between 55,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct reverse spreads in the inter - period trading, and sell - hedging at the upper end of the price range [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price Differences**: The SMM spot - futures basis (2507 contract) strengthened by 950 yuan/ton to 710 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was +270 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2507 - 2509 contract spread was 140 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Prices**: Various lithium - related products in the industry chain showed different price changes. For example, the 629 - dollar/ton 6% grade lithium concentrate price increased by 0.48%, and the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.75% to 60,650 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Lithium Ore - **Supply and Price**: With the resumption of some smelting capacities and the seasonal increase in salt - lake output, overall production has increased significantly. Lithium ore procurement demand is fair, and prices have stabilized. The 6% grade lithium concentrate price rose slightly by 3 dollars to 629 dollars/ton [2]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: This week, lithium carbonate production was 18,127 tons, a 3.75% increase from last week. The overall smelting operating rate was 52.5%, up from last week [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Lithium Salt Products - **Price and Output**: The report presents multiple price and output charts of lithium salts, including battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. It shows the historical price trends and output changes of these products over different time periods [18][19]. - **Inventory and Trade**: The total lithium carbonate inventory increased this week, with a 0.84% increase to 133,549 tons. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 32,000 tons, and the cathode material inventory continued to decline [2]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Lithium Batteries and Materials - **New - Energy Vehicle and Energy - Storage Market**: In May, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35% and 36.9%. In the energy - storage sector, the domestic "531" rush - to - install phenomenon was obvious in May, with a 413% year - on - year increase in the new - installed capacity [2]. - **Production and Operating Rate of Battery Materials**: The report provides charts of the monthly production and operating rates of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the production and installation volume of lithium batteries [23][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, the lead market is currently in a consumption off - season, with poor downstream enterprise operations. Sellers have lowered their premium quotes to sell, and some smelters are resuming production. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range suggested between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.95 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price, and holders quoted a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters' quotes changed to a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price, and traders quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price. In Jiangxi, smelters quoted a premium of 130 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On June 10, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,815 yuan/ton and closed at 16,880 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,214 lots, an increase of 8,676 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 43,968 lots, a decrease of 5,599 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,905 yuan/ton and a low of 16,790 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,815 yuan/ton, a 0.24% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On June 10, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous week. As of June 10, the LME lead inventory was 278,025 tons, a decrease of 1,950 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is cautiously bearish, and it is recommended to sell hedges on rallies, with the selling range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to be postponed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 saw an initial price increase, indicating market interest despite current weak demand conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, the main contract AD2511 opened at 19,400 CNY/ton and closed at 19,190 CNY/ton, up 825 CNY/ton or 4.49% from the benchmark price [1]. - A total of 7 contracts were listed, with a trading volume of 57,300 lots and a transaction value of 11.011 billion CNY [1]. - The average cost of aluminum alloy was reported at 20,086 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of -486 CNY/ton as of the week ending June 5 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum alloy market is currently in a consumption off-season, with both supply and demand showing weakness [2]. - Production rates have decreased, leading to a significant drop in imports, while downstream consumption, particularly in the automotive sector, is also declining [2]. - Social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has been increasing for three consecutive weeks, with a total increase of nearly 30,000 tons since early May [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Structure - Current spot prices for casting aluminum alloy are influenced by various pricing platforms, with Jiangxi Baotai often offering lower prices [3]. - The market is expected to see a division in the supply of ADC12, with high-quality aluminum water primarily supplied to major manufacturers and lower-quality products circulating in the market [3]. - The cost of recycled aluminum is under pressure from tight supply and stable aluminum prices, while the spot price of ADC12 is gradually decreasing, indicating challenges in passing on cost pressures during the off-season [2][3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - The main participants in the futures market are expected to be alloy ingot producers and downstream secondary component suppliers, with major manufacturers participating less due to their established pricing mechanisms [4]. - The AD2511 contract is anticipated to experience significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and the influence of raw aluminum prices [4]. - Producers are advised to focus on selling hedges, while downstream companies should consider purchasing spot aluminum to mitigate risks during the off-season [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Currently, the game between bears and bulls in the lithium carbonate market is intensifying, with increasing trading volume and open interest. Bears believe that high ore inventory and collapsing costs are negative factors, while bulls expect a phased gap and inventory depletion due to reduced imports and slightly increased demand in June. From a capital perspective, the weakening basis in June, lower long - term contract prices than the market price, and hedging profits from processing externally purchased ore are expected to increase the willingness of industrial short - hedging on the market. - The price of the 2507 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 55,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. - The positive spread in the inter - period trading has shrunk this week. With the market price at a premium to the long - term contract benchmark price, reverse arbitrage is expected to be the main strategy later, but the reverse arbitrage space is limited due to the inventory depletion pattern in June. - It is recommended to conduct short - hedging at the upper end of the price range [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - This week, the main contract of lithium carbonate gradually shifted from 07 to 09. The 2507 contract closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, up 1,580 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2509 contract closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, up 1,820 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price fell 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 60,200 yuan/ton. The SMM basis (2507 contract) weakened by 2,280 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was + 480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 480 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. 2. Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - End - Lithium Ore - Supply: The price of spodumene concentrate dropped to 626 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50 US dollars/ton, and the cost continued to decline. Some planned shutdown enterprises postponed their shutdowns, and the domestic lithium carbonate smelting output increased this week, with the operating rates of spodumene, mica, and salt - lake enterprises rising. Affected by the cancellation of the floor price, the agreement volume between Chilean lithium salt plants and downstream in May decreased. In May, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 14,141 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 37%. Among them, the export to China was 9,655 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.89%, showing a phased decrease in imports. This week, the lithium carbonate output was 17,471 tons, an increase of 891 tons from last week, a growth rate of 5.37% [2]. 3. Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - End - Lithium Salt Products - Demand: Trump plans to cancel new energy vehicle subsidies. The domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 245,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 11.87%. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued an initiative to maintain a fair competition order and promote the healthy development of the industry, increasing penalties for illegal enterprises and guiding enterprises to break through with technological innovation. According to the production plan in June, the overall production of downstream cathode and battery enterprises increased slightly month - on - month. Due to the low profit of cathode materials, cathode material enterprises were in the active inventory reduction state. This week, the basis of lithium carbonate weakened. After a slight rebound in lithium prices, the trading procurement volume decreased, and downstream enterprises maintained rigid procurement [2]. - Inventory: The inventory is at a historical high, and the marginal change tends to be stable. The lithium carbonate inventory was 132,432 tons, a growth rate of 0.65%. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 33,000 tons. The cathode material inventory continued to be depleted [3]. 4. Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - End - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The report provides multiple charts related to the downstream consumption of lithium salts, including the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, inventory available days, production and operating rates of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of power lithium batteries, as well as the import and export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of lithium batteries in China [29][30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, and downstream demand is weak. Therefore, it is recommended to use sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell calls [3] Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 17.34 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to - 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,750 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,075 lots, an increase of 4,378 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 45,996 lots, a decrease of 3,025 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,825 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,705 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,700 yuan/ton and closed at 16,600 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, some rigid demand transactions occurred with suppliers offering discounts of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 40 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and some suppliers offered discounts of 60 - 50 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, suppliers offered premiums of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead or discounts of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract. The lead price was consolidating, and due to the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream inventory - building intention was low, resulting in light trading in the spot market [2] Inventory - On May 29, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 49,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 29, the LME lead inventory was 288,550 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, leading some plants to consider production cuts. The price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the supply of nickel ore is tight. The market sentiment is weak, with an expected short - term downward trend and a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [3][4]. - For the stainless - steel market, the cost situation of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and the planned maintenance of some stainless - steel plants may support the market, but overall market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is also selling hedges at high prices [4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel Market Analysis - **Market Performance**: On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 119,640 yuan/ton and closed at 120,480 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 181,192 lots, and the open interest was 102,540 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, and continued to rise during the day session, closing with a mid - sized positive line. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous day [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was calm. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipments were affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and were reluctant to pay high prices for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the quota increased to 3.2 billion tons, and the domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) decreased by about $0.02. Some iron plants planned to cut production due to high costs. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,170 (- 174.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 200,142 (- 720) tons [3]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation decreased by about 1,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the prices of other mainstream brands also dropped. Although the nickel price rebounded during the day, the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 250 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel Market Strategy - **Overall Strategy**: It is expected to decline weakly in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the main strategy is range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Stainless - steel Market Analysis - **Market Performance**: On May 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,740 yuan/ton and closed at 12,690 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 139,550 lots, and the open interest was 101,554 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, rose during the day session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest slightly increased compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Some stainless - steel plants have maintenance plans in June. In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price rebounded slightly, but some steel mills and agents lowered their quotes. Cold - rolled transaction prices mostly followed the decline. The market had rigid demand, and low - priced resources had good transaction volumes. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,100 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 460 - 660 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless - steel Market Strategy - **Overall Strategy**: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - **Trading Strategies**: The single - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For nickel, due to the cost - inversion of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and supply tension in the nickel ore market, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, considering the cost - inversion of Indonesian nickel - iron plants, potential price pressure on the ore end, and the maintenance plans of some stainless - steel plants, it is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 27, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 122,500 yuan/ton and closed at 122,170 yuan/ton, a - 0.55% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,308 lots, and the open interest was 29,331 lots [1]. - The night session of the Shanghai nickel main contract opened slightly lower and oscillated weakly sideways, while the day session oscillated and declined weakly, closing with a small negative line. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly [2]. - The nickel ore market was quiet. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipping was affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and had a strong desire to lower nickel ore prices. In Indonesia, the domestic benchmark price for nickel ore in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, and the premium was still under negotiation. Some Indonesian iron plants had the intention to cut production due to high costs [2][3]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 850 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 0 - 2,200 yuan/ton, that of imported nickel was 0 - 250 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,120 (- 130) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,998 ( + 1362) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, and some plants plan to cut production. Price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the nickel ore supply is tight. New transactions need to be monitored. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The unilateral strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 27, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,880 yuan/ton and closed at 12,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 98,902 lots, and the open interest was 92,426 lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract oscillated in a narrow range and consolidated throughout the day, closing with a small doji. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased [3]. - Similar to the nickel market, the nickel ore market was quiet, and some Indonesian iron plants planned to cut production. Some stainless - steel plants had maintenance plans [3]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures oscillated sideways. Most merchants kept their prices unchanged. Downstream demand was weak, and merchants were reluctant to sell at low prices. The supply pressure of cold - rolled products remained. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,150 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 385 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Similar to the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, and some plants plan to cut production. Price pressure may shift to the ore end, and new transactions need to be monitored. The maintenance plans of some stainless - steel plants may support the market. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has shown a slight increase, but it is expected to lack sustained performance. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.65/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton, and 10,250 yuan/ton respectively [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders offered discounts of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or 150 - 140 yuan/ton to SHFE lead contracts 2506/2507 for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales, and holders offered discounts of 40 - 30 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, holders offered premiums of 50 - 75 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead [2] Futures Market - On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,760 yuan/ton and closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,820 lots, an increase of 33 lots, and the open interest was 46,064 lots, an increase of 1,732 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,850 yuan/ton and a low of 16,745 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,765 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On May 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 292,375 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - The option strategy is to sell call options [4]