消息面 焦炭第三轮提降全面落地，焦化利润一般，日产略微下降。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需采购，贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元 素供应充裕，下游铁水季节性回落，目前对原材料需求仍有韧性，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情绪较浓。焦炭盘面升水，市场对刺激政 策有一定预期，价格大概率震荡为主。 机构观点 南华期货： 焦炭三轮提降全面落地，部分焦企面临亏损，焦煤库存结构有望改善，焦炭估值修复驱动减弱，若盘面反弹，可关注低基差下的卖出套保机会。 截至12月18日，样本主流钢厂焦炭库存可用天数8.38天，已连续5周环比增加，目前多数钢厂焦炭库存增至中位以上水平。 国家发展改革委基础设施发展司发布文章《加快构建现代化基础设施体系》。文章指出，。能源领域，统筹国内国际两个市场，优化能源资源进 口，鼓励企业有序走出去参与能源项目建设。夯实煤炭保供压舱石基础，加快煤炭优质产能释放。稳步提升煤炭、石油、天然气实物储备。有序 推进国家煤制油气战略储备基地建设。 昨日，港口焦炭现货市场报价下跌，日照港（600017）准一级冶金焦现货价格1460元/吨，较上期价格跌20元/吨。 国投安信期货： ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 铅价持续偏弱 操作暂转变为逢高卖出套保 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-16，LME铅现货升水为-51.52美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-150元/吨至16825 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-150 元/吨至16875元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-150元/吨至16825元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-150元/吨至16825元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至10025元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元 /吨。 期货方面：2025-12-16，沪铅主力合约开于17015元/吨，收于16825元/吨，较前一交易日变化-185元/吨，全天交易 日成交40679手，较前一交易日变化-833手，全天交易日持仓29732手，手较前一交易日变化-2664手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17015元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report's Core View - The steel industry is currently in a state where contradictions are not prominent, with prices weakly stable over the weekend. The market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions, and the focus is on the outcome of major - power leader meetings. The carbon element may outperform the iron element in the mid - fourth quarter [2]. - The rebound space of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon is limited, and prices tend to fluctuate. The overall bearish pressure on the black sector remains due to weak downstream demand [3][5]. - The coking coal and coke futures have challenged the "anti - involution" trading high again. However, there is great uncertainty about whether the coking coal futures can break through, and it is not recommended to chase the rise unilaterally [6]. - The iron ore industry is gradually accumulating contradictions. Short - term observation is recommended, considering the potential over - supply in the fourth quarter and the expected supply increase from Ximangdu [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - On October 24, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were presented, with specific price and percentage changes. The same information was also shown for near - month contracts such as RB2601 and HC2601 [1]. - Over the weekend, steel spot prices weakly rebounded by about 10 yuan, and trading volume was average. The market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions, and currently there is no consistent contradiction. The market is observing whether inventory will accumulate and whether steel mill profits will deteriorate further [2]. - For steel trading, a wait - and - see or oscillation approach is recommended for unilateral trading. For arbitrage, consider long positions when the 01 - contract coil - to - rebar spread is below 150. For futures - cash reverse arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking [8]. 3.2 Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon rebounded under certain circumstances such as acceptable supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a favorable macro environment. However, due to weak downstream demand, the rebound space is limited, and prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3][5]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, it is recommended to gradually take profit on previous long positions [8]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - On October 24, coking coal and coke contract closing prices, changes, and basis data were provided [1]. - The second round of price increases for coking coal and coke on the spot market has been implemented. The coking coal futures have challenged the previous high, but there is uncertainty about a breakthrough. It is not recommended to chase the rise unilaterally, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on part of their spot inventory when the futures price rises [6][8]. 3.4 Iron Ore - On October 24, iron ore contract closing prices, changes, and basis data were presented [1]. - The supply of iron ore is generally stable, but there may be an over - supply situation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent significant decline in ferroalloy futures, particularly manganese silicon and silicon iron, is driven by a combination of high supply and weakening demand expectations from steel mills [1][2] - Analysts highlight that the previous price increases were primarily driven by "anti-involution" logic and expectations of reduced supply, supported by macroeconomic factors such as domestic policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Current market conditions show a concerning fundamental outlook, with steel prices under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron output and lower electric furnace operating rates [2][3] Group 2 - Manganese silicon inventory has been rising rapidly, with the latest data showing an increase to 198,900 tons, while silicon iron inventory remains stable [2] - Despite the increase in manganese silicon inventory, production has decreased to 208,800 tons, indicating potential pressure on inventory levels if demand does not improve [2] - The cost support for manganese and silicon iron remains strong, with manganese ore prices showing slight increases, suggesting limited downside potential for prices in the near future [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in ferroalloy futures, particularly in manganese silicon and silicon iron, is driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics, with high supply and weak demand expectations leading to price drops [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The previous price increase in ferroalloy futures was primarily driven by "anti-involution" logic and expectations of reduced supply, supported by macroeconomic factors such as domestic policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Current market sentiment has shifted, with high supply continuing while expectations of reduced production from steel mills and weak terminal demand are rising, leading to a decline in ferroalloy prices [3][4]. - The ferroalloy industry is characterized by overcapacity, and while prices had previously risen due to cost factors and expectations of production cuts, no significant reduction policies have been implemented recently [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Manganese silicon inventory has increased rapidly, with 63 companies reporting a stock of 198,900 tons as of September 19, up by 32,100 tons week-on-week, although this remains within normal ranges compared to previous years [4]. - Silicon iron inventory has also remained stable, with 60 companies reporting a decrease from 70,000 tons to 63,300 tons, indicating a simultaneous decline in apparent demand [4]. - The overall production profit has improved, maintaining high output levels despite the pressure on demand, with expectations of reduced steel production potentially leading to negative feedback for ferroalloy prices [4][5]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - The market still holds expectations for demand during the "golden September and silver October" period, while cost support remains strong, particularly for manganese ore prices, which have not seen significant declines [5]. - Factors such as high import concentration of manganese ore and potential disruptions from overseas labor strikes or natural disasters could lead to price increases, limiting the downside for manganese ore prices [5]. - Both manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to have limited price decline potential, with forecasts suggesting a wide fluctuation range of 5,600 to 5,950 yuan per ton in the fourth quarter [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong "counter - attack" of coking coal futures prices is related to supply - side low - valuation - matching production cuts, 6 - 7 month production and import seasonality, high - level iron - water production, and market expectation revisions. The futures price has changed from long - term discount to premium. Given the current small premium and the upcoming resumption of domestic coking coal mines, excessive bullish expectations for coking coal futures prices are not advisable. The valuation decline space caused by the previous concentrated short - view on coking coal futures prices will be significantly revised upwards [12][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Mongolian coal suspends customs clearance due to holidays, and the effect of domestic coal production cuts emerges - Recently, the trading of Mongolian coal has improved significantly due to the premium opportunity provided by the futures price. During the Naadam Festival from July 11th to July 15th, the three major Mongolian ports were closed for 5 days, leading to an expected short - term supply tightening. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port increased from 705 yuan/ton in the second half of the month to 740 - 750 yuan/ton [1] - Since May, domestic coking coal mines have successively cut production. State - owned large mines have poor sales and some mines are forced to cut production due to full storage; small mines have many accidents and the number of mines under suspension and rectification has increased since June; some private mines in certain regions have cut or even stopped production due to poor sales and production losses [1] - As production cuts continue and expand, the inventory of coking coal in some invisible links has been significantly digested, and the visible carbon element inventory has shown a significant decline since mid - June [3] 2. The sentiment of futures - spot trading surges, bringing vitality to spot trading - The reversal of futures price sentiment has provided space for futures - spot arbitrage and selling hedging, leading to a surge in futures - spot trading sentiment, which has driven the spot market of coking coal. The rate of unsuccessful auctions in the spot market has rapidly declined, and the prices of some coal types have rebounded significantly. For example, the price of lean coking coal in Shanxi has increased from 930 yuan/ton to 970 yuan/ton, and the coking coal warehouse - receipt prices in Shanxi (except Mongolian coal) have also risen to 875 - 920 yuan/ton [5] - The price of Australian imported low - sulfur main coking coal converted into warehouse - receipt price is close to the futures price, and the trading of imported coal at ports has become more active. On the 2nd, the price index of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal rose by 9.7 to 196.85. The significant improvement in coking coal spot liquidity, combined with the small - scale replenishment of downstream coking plants and steel mills, will promote coal mine sales and drive up prices [7][9] 3. High - level iron - water production is maintained during the off - season, and the "anti - involution" expectation protects steel - making profits - Thanks to the relatively weak prices of coke and iron ore and the continuous support of export resilience, the current steel prices and steel - making profit levels are not bad. During the off - season of construction demand, iron - water production has not significantly decreased and remains at a high level of 242,000 tons per day. Although there are expectations of phased production restrictions in Tangshan, the national iron - water production is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to profit incentives [10] - The widespread discussion of "anti - involution" has led to a good expectation of future steel - making profits in the market. In the past, during the expectation stage of production restrictions or flat - control, both steel prices and raw material prices were driven upwards. The "anti - involution" expectation has also led to a re - discussion of the valuation repair of bulk commodities with over - capacity and valuations close to cost support [12]

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 1, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 62,140 yuan/ton and closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 1.15% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 398,387 lots, and the open interest was 326,676 lots, a decrease of 4,148 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 592,395 lots, a decrease of 4,592 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 9,815 lots from the previous day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.82. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 22,940 lots, an increase of 312 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 1, 2025, the quotation of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 - 62,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,200 - 60,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot inventory was 136,800 tons, including 59,000 tons in smelters, 40,600 tons in downstream, and 37,200 tons in other inventories. The spot transaction price center of lithium carbonate remained stable for the time being. The lithium carbonate market continued the basic pattern of oversupply, with prominent supply - demand contradictions. The market had sufficient available goods, and the inventory pressure was not effectively alleviated. Downstream cathode plants had an expected increase in production in July, but currently mainly made rigid purchases, with no obvious increase in inventory - building willingness, and the market had strong wait - and - see sentiment and few transactions [2]. - In June, the domestic lithium carbonate market significantly increased production. The monthly total output increased by 8% month - on - month and 18% year - on - year, reaching 78,090 tons [2]. Group 2: Strategy - Overall, the fundamentals were weak, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. The production of material factories in July had a certain increase, providing short - term support for consumption. The warehouse receipts would be cancelled in July, and recent news of production cuts on the supply side led to enlarged fluctuations in the disk. In the medium term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and the willingness to sell for hedging after a rebound was strong [3]. - For trading strategies, it was recommended to sell for hedging at high prices in the unilateral market, and there were no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [5]. Group 3: Figures - There were figures including the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%), the price of domestic industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%), the weekly total output of lithium carbonate, the weekly statistical inventory of lithium carbonate, the statistical inventory of lithium ore, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Price Trend**: This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices first rose and then declined, with the main contract switching to 2509. The 2507 contract closed at 59,940 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2509 contract closed at 59,800 yuan/ton, down 1,120 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price increased by 450 yuan/ton to 60,650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is on the rise as some smelting capacities resume production and salt - lake output increases seasonally. Lithium ore prices have stabilized, with the 6% grade lithium concentrate price rising slightly by 3 dollars to 629 dollars/ton. This week, lithium carbonate production was 18,127 tons, a 3.75% increase from last week. In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle production and sales in May were good, with year - on - year increases of 35% and 36.9% respectively. The domestic "531" rush - to - install phenomenon in the energy - storage sector was obvious in May, but downstream procurement remains cautious. Inventory has increased, with a 0.84% increase in total lithium carbonate inventory this week [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. For the 2507 contract, the price is expected to range between 55,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct reverse spreads in the inter - period trading, and sell - hedging at the upper end of the price range [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price Differences**: The SMM spot - futures basis (2507 contract) strengthened by 950 yuan/ton to 710 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was +270 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2507 - 2509 contract spread was 140 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Prices**: Various lithium - related products in the industry chain showed different price changes. For example, the 629 - dollar/ton 6% grade lithium concentrate price increased by 0.48%, and the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.75% to 60,650 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Lithium Ore - **Supply and Price**: With the resumption of some smelting capacities and the seasonal increase in salt - lake output, overall production has increased significantly. Lithium ore procurement demand is fair, and prices have stabilized. The 6% grade lithium concentrate price rose slightly by 3 dollars to 629 dollars/ton [2]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: This week, lithium carbonate production was 18,127 tons, a 3.75% increase from last week. The overall smelting operating rate was 52.5%, up from last week [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Lithium Salt Products - **Price and Output**: The report presents multiple price and output charts of lithium salts, including battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. It shows the historical price trends and output changes of these products over different time periods [18][19]. - **Inventory and Trade**: The total lithium carbonate inventory increased this week, with a 0.84% increase to 133,549 tons. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 32,000 tons, and the cathode material inventory continued to decline [2]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Lithium Batteries and Materials - **New - Energy Vehicle and Energy - Storage Market**: In May, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35% and 36.9%. In the energy - storage sector, the domestic "531" rush - to - install phenomenon was obvious in May, with a 413% year - on - year increase in the new - installed capacity [2]. - **Production and Operating Rate of Battery Materials**: The report provides charts of the monthly production and operating rates of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the production and installation volume of lithium batteries [23][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, the lead market is currently in a consumption off - season, with poor downstream enterprise operations. Sellers have lowered their premium quotes to sell, and some smelters are resuming production. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range suggested between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.95 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price, and holders quoted a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters' quotes changed to a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price, and traders quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price. In Jiangxi, smelters quoted a premium of 130 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On June 10, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,815 yuan/ton and closed at 16,880 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,214 lots, an increase of 8,676 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 43,968 lots, a decrease of 5,599 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,905 yuan/ton and a low of 16,790 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,815 yuan/ton, a 0.24% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On June 10, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous week. As of June 10, the LME lead inventory was 278,025 tons, a decrease of 1,950 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is cautiously bearish, and it is recommended to sell hedges on rallies, with the selling range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to be postponed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 saw an initial price increase, indicating market interest despite current weak demand conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, the main contract AD2511 opened at 19,400 CNY/ton and closed at 19,190 CNY/ton, up 825 CNY/ton or 4.49% from the benchmark price [1]. - A total of 7 contracts were listed, with a trading volume of 57,300 lots and a transaction value of 11.011 billion CNY [1]. - The average cost of aluminum alloy was reported at 20,086 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of -486 CNY/ton as of the week ending June 5 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum alloy market is currently in a consumption off-season, with both supply and demand showing weakness [2]. - Production rates have decreased, leading to a significant drop in imports, while downstream consumption, particularly in the automotive sector, is also declining [2]. - Social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has been increasing for three consecutive weeks, with a total increase of nearly 30,000 tons since early May [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Structure - Current spot prices for casting aluminum alloy are influenced by various pricing platforms, with Jiangxi Baotai often offering lower prices [3]. - The market is expected to see a division in the supply of ADC12, with high-quality aluminum water primarily supplied to major manufacturers and lower-quality products circulating in the market [3]. - The cost of recycled aluminum is under pressure from tight supply and stable aluminum prices, while the spot price of ADC12 is gradually decreasing, indicating challenges in passing on cost pressures during the off-season [2][3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - The main participants in the futures market are expected to be alloy ingot producers and downstream secondary component suppliers, with major manufacturers participating less due to their established pricing mechanisms [4]. - The AD2511 contract is anticipated to experience significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and the influence of raw aluminum prices [4]. - Producers are advised to focus on selling hedges, while downstream companies should consider purchasing spot aluminum to mitigate risks during the off-season [4].