铁水转增，成本支撑带动钢价低位回升 ——周报20251117 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢高炉周产量200万吨（环比-4.10%，同比-14.51%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量313.66万吨（环比-1.41%，同比+1.67%）。螺纹钢和热卷均呈现减产。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费216.37万吨（环比-0.98%，同比-7.61%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 313.59万吨（环比-0.23%，同比-1.23%）。螺纹钢和热卷表需均呈现小幅下降。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存576.17万吨（环比-2.76%，同比+29.33%），热卷总库存 | 震荡偏强 | | | | 410.52万吨（环比+0.02%，同比+27 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the consumption side of steel may gradually recover. In the short term, demand is still weak, but there may be an inflection point in the future [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profits, the demand side continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains high. After the macro - events are realized, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and silicon iron, the fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and both are likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited [13][16]. - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,534 tons, with no change. The main - contract open interest decreased by 11,428 lots to 2.020353 million lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.092%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 889 tons to 99,412 tons. The main - contract open interest decreased by 7743 lots to 1.365348 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and the inventory showed reverse - seasonal accumulation. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the risk of hot - rolled coil inventory still exists. Future attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm. With the improvement of the macro - environment, the demand may recover in the future [2]. Iron Ore Market Conditions - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.19% (+1.50). The open interest decreased by 7164 lots to 537,500 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 57.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.83% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron - ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level in the same period. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory and steel - mill inventory increased. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel - mill profits, the iron - ore demand continued to weaken, and the price was expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Conditions - On November 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.38% at 5798 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 0.47% at 5586 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 14 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, and potential drivers might come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious contradictions, and both were likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9065 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The open interest increased by 1917 lots to 400,305 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 235 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 165 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,395 yuan/ton, up 0.07% (+40). The open interest decreased by 4850 lots to 225,552 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1195 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persisted, and the demand support was weakening. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern might improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range was limited [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Conditions - The glass main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.36% (+4). The price of large - size glass in North China remained unchanged at 1130 yuan, and the price in Central China increased by 20 yuan to 1140 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.654 million boxes (-4.03%) to 63.136 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9576 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 10,400 lots [18]. - The soda - ash main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.00% (+12). The price of heavy - ash in Shahe increased by 12 yuan to 1157 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7142 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 5605 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 22,126 lots [20]. Strategy Views - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the steel market remains positive, with prices rising. However, the demand lacks explosive power, and it is necessary to observe the evolution of contradictions. Carbon elements are expected to outperform iron elements in the fourth quarter [2]. - The market sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is warm, and prices are strong, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals, and more supply - demand changes should be monitored [2]. - The spot price of coking coal and coke is rising, and the coking coal 05 contract has reached a new high. Consider going long on the coking coal contract if the price retraces to the previous high and holds [4]. - For iron ore, the supply is stable, but there are risks of supply - demand imbalance in the fourth quarter. Short - term observation is recommended [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On October 29, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, JM2605, and J2605 were 7000, 12605, 6000, and 5000 yuan/ton respectively. The near - month contract closing prices of HC2601, RB2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3133.00, 3345.00, 804.50, and 1302.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - On October 29, the prices of steel products showed different degrees of increase. The sentiment in the market may be supported by the upcoming leaders' meeting. The steel inventory is decreasing seasonally, but there is still a high - output dilemma. It is recommended to observe the evolution of contradictions. Consider going long on the 01 contract when the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is below 150, and take rolling profit for the futures - cash reverse arbitrage [2][5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The market sentiment is warm, and prices are strong. However, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and negative feedback pressure may occur. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2][5]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading atmosphere in the port market has improved, and the prices of coking coal and coke are rising. The coking coal 05 contract has broken through the previous high. Fundamentally, the supply of coking coal is low, and the demand from steel mills is strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices on the futures side, and industrial customers can consider selling part of the spot due to the premium of the coke futures [4][5]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is within a reasonable range. There are risks of supply - demand imbalance in the fourth quarter due to high pig iron production. The expected increase in supply from Simandou restricts the price ceiling. Short - term observation is recommended [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - Due to factors such as the decline in steel mill profits and high inventory pressure, iron ore prices are under pressure. With weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances, ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic about the future. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to make rebounds rather than shorting. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's market [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are weakly operating and are expected to be in short - term consolidation, following the overall commodity environment due to supply pressure and uncertain demand [13]. - After the end of expected pricing, polysilicon prices have fallen again. With existing real - world constraints, it is currently a phased correction within the oscillation range, with attention on the support level of 48,000 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract [16]. - Glass is in the traditional peak - season end, with weak demand and increasing supply, and the market is expected to remain weakly operating in the short term [19]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory and weak downstream support. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.689%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,414 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 18,322 lots. In the spot market, the Tianjin aggregated price remained unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.869%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 896 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 8,822 lots. In the spot market, the Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and steel product prices showed weak oscillations. The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to guide the macro - economic trend. Rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a small reduction in inventory, but demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, and post - holiday demand also increased, but the inventory level was still high, with prominent fundamental contradictions [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 774.00 yuan/ton, up 0.58% (+4.50), with the open interest changing to 558,200 lots, a decrease of 4,570 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.13 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.76% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments increased month - on - month and were at a high level in the same period. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all increased. The near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. - Demand: The latest average daily hot - metal output was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons month - on - month. Some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. - Overall: Affected by factors such as profit decline and high inventory, iron ore prices are under pressure. With weak terminal demand and macro - disturbances, ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 22, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed up 1.11% at 5,810 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the futures. - The main ferrosilicon contract (SF601) closed up 1.17% at 5,558 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 112 yuan/ton over the futures. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are in an oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the price direction at the current trend line [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - Current factors such as weak real - demand and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions have pressured prices. However, the market has insufficient trading of expectations for subsequent important meetings. There may be an expected difference. - It is not pessimistic about the future of the black sector. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to make rebounds. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black - sector market [9][10]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8,485 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (-20). The weighted - contract open interest increased to 438,479 lots, an increase of 2,236 lots. In the spot market, the price of East China non - oxygen - permeable 553 remained unchanged, and the price of 421 decreased by 50 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Affected by the overall market environment, industrial silicon prices are weakly operating. The supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", with overall supply pressure. The demand has potential risks of weakening support. Cost factors provide some support. Overall, it is expected to be in short - term consolidation and follow the commodity environment [13]. Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 50,310 yuan/ton, down 0.80% (-405). The weighted - contract open interest decreased to 247,499 lots, a decrease of 3,171 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2,690 yuan/ton for the main contract [14][15]. Strategy Viewpoints - After the end of expected pricing, polysilicon prices have fallen again. With factors such as over - expected production increase and reduced downstream production scheduling, there is real - world inventory pressure. It is currently a phased correction within the oscillation range, with attention on the support level of 48,000 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract [16]. Glass Market Information - On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+7). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 2.31% week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 372 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 9,410 short positions [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Entering the end of the traditional peak season, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. The market's supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term, and it is expected to remain weakly operating without external stimuli [19]. Soda Ash Market Information - On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1,223 yuan/ton, up 1.07% (+13). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 2.31% week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders increased 2,351 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 12,374 short positions [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - The soda ash industry has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory and weak downstream support. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short - term, the weak demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to factors such as a decline in steel mill profits, an increase in port inventories, and weak terminal demand. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities rather than shorting. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are affected by supply pressure and follow the commodity environment, with short - term consolidation. Polysilicon prices are in a phased correction within the shock range, with support at 48000 yuan/ton [13][15]. - Glass prices are expected to maintain a weak shock trend due to high inventory and weak demand. Soda ash prices are expected to continue a weak and stable shock operation due to a loose supply - demand pattern [18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3045 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 147,655 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 1,609 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices remained unchanged. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3215 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.343%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,379 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 7,152 lots. The Lechang spot price increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai price remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session is expected to guide the economic development in the next five years. Fundamentally, rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a slight reduction in inventory, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, demand increased after the holiday, but inventory remained high, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to narrow [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 767.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.52% (- 4.00). The open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,600 lots. The weighted open interest was 926,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.24% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded, with increases in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrival volume decreased. - Demand: The average daily hot metal output decreased by 0.59 tons to 240.95 tons. Some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance due to profit decline, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. - Overall: The iron ore price is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On October 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.35% at 5738 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 0.11% at 5436 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 164 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - Current factors such as high hot metal levels and inventory pressure on the plate side are mostly priced in. Macro factors such as important meetings will be more important. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon may be driven by the manganese ore end, and ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8565 yuan/ton, up 1.60% (+ 135). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 14,328 lots to 427,791 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 735 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 50340 yuan/ton, down 3.82% (- 2000). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 23,629 lots to 253,316 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2460 yuan/ton [12][14]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: Supply pressure exists, and it is expected to consolidate in the short - term, following the commodity environment. - Polysilicon: It is in a phased correction within the shock range, with support at 48000 yuan/ton [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton, up 1.59% (+ 18). The North China large - plate price decreased by 30 yuan, and the Central China price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 145.16 million cases (+ 2.31%). - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+ 3). The Shahe heavy - soda price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 4.07 million tons (+ 2.31%) [17][19]. Strategy Views - Glass: Due to high inventory and weak demand, it is expected to maintain a weak shock trend. - Soda ash: Due to a loose supply - demand pattern, it is expected to continue a weak and stable shock operation [18][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel has a neutral valuation, and the spot market lacks a rebound driver. The steel market is affected by macro - uncertainties and industry - specific factors, with demand being crucial. For the short - term, there is no clear contradiction for a unilateral direction, and there are concerns about negative feedback in the off - season [2]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon lack driving forces and their prices are oscillating. Supply is high, demand is weak, and there are long - term concerns despite short - term production motivation [2]. - Coking coal and coke have strong spot performance but the futures market is oscillating. There are concerns about negative feedback in the short - term, while policies may have a positive impact on supply in the long - term [4]. - Iron ore is affected by trade frictions and supply - demand factors. There is a risk of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 13, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3139.00 yuan/ton (down 27.00 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2605 at 3274.00 yuan/ton (down 25.00 yuan, - 0.76%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3083.00 yuan/ton (down 24.00 yuan, - 0.77%), HC2601 at 3261.00 yuan/ton (down 29.00 yuan, - 0.88%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2601 - 2605 at - 56.00 yuan/ton, HC2601 - 2605 at - 13.00 yuan/ton, etc., and the spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread at 178.00 yuan, the rebar - to - ore ratio at 3.83, etc., also had corresponding changes on October 13 [1]. Spot Market - On October 13, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3210.00 yuan/ton (down 50.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar at 3180.00 yuan/ton (down 50.00 yuan), etc. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton (down 60.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil at 3340.00 yuan/ton (down 60.00 yuan) [1]. - The base differentials, such as HC main contract at 39.00 yuan/ton, RB main contract at 127.00 yuan/ton, etc., also had changes on October 13 [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading. Focus on the opportunity to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread of the 01 contract when it is below 150. Roll the futures - cash reverse arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal and coke, take a wait - and - see approach for now [6]. - For iron ore, take a short - term wait - and - see approach [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices may continue to decline. [3] - The supply and demand contradictions of iron ore are not prominent for the moment, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrous alloys have dropped rapidly. In the short - term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The fundamental problems of over - supply in the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron industries remain. [7][8][9] - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and is expected to have high - volatility. [12][13][14] - The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price of soda ash may gradually rise, but the increase is limited. [16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Analysis**: The export volume of steel increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The output of rebar decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.33% (-10.50), and the position changed to 45.29 million hands. The weighted position was 80.85 million hands. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08%. [5] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipping was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The recent arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output was basically flat, the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased slightly. [6] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On August 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.61% at 5862 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.42% at 5656 yuan/ton. [7] - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferrous alloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There were no obvious fundamental contradictions in silicon iron, and supply also continued to increase. [8][9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.84% (-160). The weighted contract position changed to 526046 hands. [11] - **Market Analysis**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained. Production continued to rise, and the support from the demand side was limited. It was expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50985 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.15% (-595). The weighted contract position changed to 320439 hands. [13] - **Market Analysis**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It was expected to have high - volatility. [14] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price in Shahe was 1138 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million heavy boxes, up 180,000 heavy boxes (0.28%) from the previous period. [16] - **Market Analysis**: The production of glass remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. The price adjustment space was limited, and the market expected policy support. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [16] - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of soda ash was 1200 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons (1.19%) from last Thursday. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The price of soda ash fluctuated with the coal - chemical sector. The downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase was limited. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by tariff disturbances, with steel prices experiencing increased volatility. The black - series market had a concentrated release of previous bullish sentiment, facing short - term adjustments due to factors such as post - delivery market arrival pressure and recent tariff impacts, but still having upward drivers in the medium term [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory of different steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coils) and raw materials (such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke) show different trends. For example, rebar has limited demand release in the off - season, while hot - rolled coils have a more optimistic demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of raw materials were under pressure at high levels, and steel prices fluctuated and adjusted. The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed, with some rising and some falling. The market sentiment cooled down after the exchange adjusted the coking coal handling fee and imposed position limits. Rebar has been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the inventory increase of hot - rolled coils has slowed down, and the social inventory has decreased. In the short - term, the trend of hot - rolled coils is stronger than that of rebar, and the overall market shows an oscillating adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 220.45 million tons (down 0.33% month - on - month and up 32.51% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 315.59 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted [14][16][27]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 189.94 million tons (down 9.89% month - on - month and down 4.72% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.75 million tons (up 2.79% month - on - month and up 9.21% year - on - year). Rebar demand declined significantly, while hot - rolled coil demand showed an increase [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 587.19 million tons (up 5.48% month - on - month and down 14.97% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 357.47 million tons (up 0.24% month - on - month and down 20.66% year - on - year). Rebar inventory accumulation expanded, and hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation slowed down [39][44]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both weakened month - on - month. In the automotive market, in July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45][50]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.81 (down 0.37% month - on - month and up 6.71% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2669.7 million tons (up 9.96% month - on - month and up 3.41% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2476.6 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 5.49% year - on - year) [57]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 240.66 million tons (up 0.34 million tons month - on - month and up 11.89 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 iron ore ports was 334.67 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 2.43% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.61 days (up 1.26% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [62]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 13819.27 million tons (up 0.78% month - on - month and down 8.07% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9136.4 million tons (up 1.37% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year) [68]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.73% (down 0.19% month - on - month and down 7.14% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 36.51% (up 0.80% month - on - month and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.51 million tons (up 16.60% month - on - month and up 18.28% year - on - year) [74]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 87.72% (up 9.46% week - on - week and up 27.37% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.08% (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 36.73% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was + 20 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 57 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.34% (up 0.42% month - on - month and up 2.07% year - on - year) [82]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 829.31 million tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 23.53% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 805.60 million tons (down 0.36% month - on - month and up 11.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 255.49 million tons (down 7.88% month - on - month and down 25.59% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 39.31 million tons (down 11.92% month - on - month and down 13.98% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 609.8 million tons (down 1.53% month - on - month and up 14.24% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 215.11 million tons (down 1.39% month - on - month and up 14.29% year - on - year) [88][94]. - **Spot Price**: The sixth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [95]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between rebar contracts 10 - 1 has continued to shrink. The spread between iron ore contracts 9 - 1 has continued to narrow, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened again [102][108].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the "anti - involution" sentiment cools and the Politburo meeting's impact fades, the market sentiment becomes rational, and the futures prices start to weaken. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, the steel prices may decline, and the futures prices will gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - The overall demand for the black sector is weak. Although the supply pressure is not significant, the demand growth is limited. The market is influenced by short - term sentiment, and prices will eventually move towards the fundamentals [3][6][10]. - For different products, the fundamentals vary. For example, steel products have high inventory and weak demand; the supply of iron ore is in the traditional off - season, and the demand has support; the over - capacity situation of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon remains unchanged; glass and soda ash have inventory pressure and weak demand [3][6][11][14][16][18][19]. 3. Summary by Product Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3250 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (1.151%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 579 tons, and the position increased by 515 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3465 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (1.079%), with a decrease of 1454 tons in registered warehouse receipts and 17218 lots in position [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with social inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks and the increase accelerating this week. Hot - rolled coils had both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventory of both rebar and hot - rolled coils is rising, but the demand is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 789.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00% (+15.50), with an increase of 37210 lots in position to 39.27 million lots. The weighted position was 92.48 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 37.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.58% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The latest shipment and arrival volume of overseas iron ore both decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly due to blast furnace maintenance. The port inventory fluctuated slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly. The overall demand was slightly weak, but there was still demand support [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On August 11, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rebounded, closing up 0.89% at 6100 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 1.00% at 5830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Analysis and Suggestions**: The market is affected by sentiment, and prices fluctuate greatly. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations. The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the future [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 9000 yuan/ton, up 3.33% (+290), with an increase of 15809 lots in weighted position to 549604 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 200 yuan/ton; the 421 price increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand remain. The production rate is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly [14]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (PS2511) of polycrystalline silicon closed at 52985 yuan/ton, up 4.32% (+2195), with a decrease of 23165 lots in weighted position to 337163 lots. The spot price remained flat, and the basis of the main contract was - 5985 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: It is expected to increase production in August, and the downstream silicon wafer production also increases, but the silicon material is likely to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 4 yuan, and in Central China by 30 yuan. As of August 7, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight - boxes, up 3.95% month - on - month and down 8.18% year - on - year. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long term [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was stable, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8762 million tons as of August 11, up 0.60% from last Thursday. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]