1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginally improved and inventories are gradually being reduced, there is no trend - upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The bottom support of iron ore has been strengthened, but the negotiation issue causes repeated emotional disturbances [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment. It is recommended to focus on the situation of manganese ore and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. - For coking coal and coke, there are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - The price of polycrystalline silicon is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. The pattern of weak downstream feedback and high silicon material inventory remains unchanged [19]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. Although there is supply contraction expectation and cost - side support, the actual recovery of terminal demand remains to be seen [22]. - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend under the game between short - term supply tightening and continuous weak demand [24]. 3. Key Points by Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83113 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 901,100 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 546,018 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 773,100 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, new construction shows a large decline, and the real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient. The short - term support of real estate for steel demand is limited, and terminal demand is likely to remain weak. Fundamentally, supply and demand both increase, and inventory is being reduced at an accelerated pace. The rebar demand is recovering, and the supply is marginally decreasing, with good inventory reduction, but the overall situation is still neutral [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 808.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.62% (-5.00). The position changed by - 17,797 lots to 353,600 lots. The weighted position was 904,000 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 17.07 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.07% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period significantly declined. Australian shipments were affected by cyclones and have gradually recovered, while Brazilian shipments increased to a high level in the same period. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased steadily. The near - term arrival volume increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily hot - metal production increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons. It is expected that hot - metal production still has room to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to rise slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On March 31, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) closed down 2.19% at 644 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6350 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 6590 yuan/ton, a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) closed down 3.17% at 5874 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, a premium of 176 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the market's trading on stagflation and recession persists. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit the alloy cost side. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. The future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On March 31, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 5.40% at 1148.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1562.6 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1372.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 224 yuan/ton over the futures price. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 2.97% at 1701.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1500 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1747 yuan/ton, a premium of 45.5 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit coal prices. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.47% (-125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,541 lots to 360,314 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 795 yuan/ton for the main contract; the 421 spot price was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures price [16]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 35,200 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.69% (-1350). The weighted contract position changed by - 34 lots to 53,472 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 41.5 yuan/kg, unchanged month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 37.5 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type recycled material was 38.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg month - on - month. The basis of the main contract was 3300 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate as the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The negative feedback adjustment continues. The factory inventory remains high, and downstream restocking willingness is low. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton, down 2.02% (-21). The North China large - plate price was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million boxes, down 814,000 boxes (-1.09%) month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders added 12,207 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders added 24,029 short positions [21]. - Soda ash: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1177 yuan/ton, down 2.49% (-30). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1157 yuan, down 30 from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8519 million tons, down 0.0019 million tons (-1.09%) month - on - month. The heavy - soda inventory was 905,300 tons, up 14,600 tons month - on - month; the light - soda inventory was 946,600 tons, down 16,500 tons month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 17,206 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13,018 short positions [23]. Strategy Views - Glass: The spot trading atmosphere is weak, and terminal demand recovery is less than expected. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The reference range for the main contract is 1000 - 1050 yuan/ton [22]. - Soda ash: The industry's operating rate has declined, and local supply has tightened. Demand remains weak. The market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1210 yuan/ton [24].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - **Black Building Materials**: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - **Strategy**: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - **Strategy**: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Futures prices rose [63]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - **Strategy**: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - **Strategy**: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, production increased against the seasonal trend, apparent demand continued to weaken, and inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and the macro - level is currently in a policy window period. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils, the possible marginal strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The shipment volume from Australia increased, while that from Brazil remained stable. The shipments of three major Australian mines increased, and Vale's decreased slightly. Shipments from non - mainstream countries declined from the high level. The near - end arrival volume continued to decline. The daily average pig iron output increased slightly. The profitability of steel mills continued to improve. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to rise. The supply pressure decreased marginally, but the inventory structure problem remained unsolved. The price decline led to pre - holiday purchases by steel mills, providing some support. The iron - making resumption rhythm was affected by safety inspections. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, last week's explosion at Baogang Plate Mill led to production shutdowns and inspections, suppressing the iron - making resumption process and dragging down the demand for furnace materials. After the market sentiment eased, there was a certain rebound. In the future, the long - position trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the current market contradictions are concentrated in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and lithium carbonate. The black sector currently lacks capital interest. The supply - demand pattern of silicomanganese is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector and the cost - push from manganese ore for silicomanganese and the supply contraction for ferrosilicon [10][11]. - For coking coal and coke, last week's accident led to production shutdowns and inspections, suppressing the iron - making resumption process and dragging down the demand for furnace materials. After the market sentiment eased, there was a rebound. In the future, the long - position trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the black sector lacks capital interest. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. The short - term restocking may not drive prices strongly. The price of Australian coal has risen significantly, and although the direct impact on China is limited, it may boost market sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term [15][16]. - For industrial silicon, it closed down with fluctuations yesterday. The supply decreased last week, and the demand was weak. If the production cut of a large Xinjiang factory is implemented, the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction. Considering the approaching Spring Festival, the price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production cut of the large factory and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [19]. - For polysilicon, the "anti - involution" expectation in the industry is unclear. The spot market is in a stalemate, with downstream silicon wafer manufacturers delaying purchases. The supply is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. The futures trading volume and liquidity have fallen to a relatively low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. - For glass, the market sentiment was weak last week. Affected by insufficient downstream orders, weak restocking willingness, and the approaching Spring Festival, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory in most areas accumulated slightly or remained stable. The market lacks positive drivers, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [24]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern was generally loose last week. The supply was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. The market lacks positive drivers, and the futures and spot markets are in a weak - oscillation state. The price is expected to continue to run weakly in the short term [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3126 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 17,283 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main - contract position was 1.7147 million lots, down 16,197 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3289 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 179,126 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main - contract position was 1.5084 million lots, down 6369 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3290 yuan/ton, with no change; that in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 788.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.45% (+3.50). The position changed by +2878 lots to 571,100 lots. The weighted position was 924,200 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 57.72 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.82% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On January 27, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) closed down 0.17% at 5818 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 92 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed down 0.43% at 5604 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 146 yuan/ton over the futures price [9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On January 27, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 3.71% at 1116.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1588.4 yuan/ton, down 1.4 yuan/ton, and the converted futures price was 1398.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 282 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the converted futures price was 1284 yuan/ton, with a premium of 167.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 cleaned coal in Jinquan Industrial Park was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the converted futures price was 1209 yuan/ton, with a premium of 92.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 2.97% at 1668.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the converted futures price was 1704 yuan/ton, with a premium of 36 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the converted futures price was 1710.5 yuan/ton, with a discount of 42.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8860 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.62% (-55). The weighted contract position changed by -12,339 lots to 385,097 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 340 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis after conversion was -10 yuan/ton [18]. - For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 51,900 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.21% (+620). The weighted contract position changed by -162 lots to 75,994 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, down 1.75 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, down 1.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of 600 yuan/ton [20]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - For glass, on Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton, down 1.93% (-21). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1010 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; that in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged. On January 23, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.2158 million boxes, up 202,800 boxes (+0.38%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 19,704 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 24,416 lots [24]. - For soda ash, on Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton, down 0.91% (-11). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1154 yuan, down 11 yuan from the previous day. On January 23, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5212 million tons, down 53,800 tons (-3.42%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, down 41,300 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 824,500 tons, down 12,500 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 7794 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 10,175 lots [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The black series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the "dual - carbon" policy, and its impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is expected to enter the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, the commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repair and fuel - cost increase, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, the demand is weak, and the overall pattern remains weak [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3158 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55933 tons, a net increase of 1512 tons. The main contract positions were 1.6879 million lots, a net decrease of 38760 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3303 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (- 0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 173103 tons, a net increase of 60866 tons. The main contract positions were 1.4403 million lots, a net increase of 12752 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The output of rebar increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market rumors and information screening [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 819.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.36% (- 3.00), and the positions changed by - 1527 lots to 653300 lots. The weighted positions were 989800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron - ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipment from Brazil decreased significantly, and the shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased. The shipment from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrival volume continued to increase [5]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast - furnace utilization rate in some areas recovered, and the steel - mill profitability decreased slightly [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill imported - ore inventory increased but remained at a low level [5]. - Outlook: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel - mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.24% at 5916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24 yuan/ton [8]. - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.28% at 5682 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The ferrosilicon showed relative strength due to rumors but then gave up the gains [9]. - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand structure of manganese silicon is loose, with high inventory and weak downstream demand, but these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10]. - Future drivers: The market direction of the black sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 3.80% at 1191.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1525.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 143 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.41% at 1745.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1490 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Views - Previous drivers: The bullish commodity - market atmosphere and the news of coking - coal production - capacity reduction [15]. - Outlook: The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. Industrial Silicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.37% (- 120). The weighted positions changed by + 3755 lots to 378736 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 565 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Supply: The production in December was stable, the furnace - opening number in the southwest decreased to a low level, and the supply improvement was limited [19]. - Demand: The polysilicon production in January continued to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon was weak. The demand from the organic - silicon industry was relatively stable [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 49005 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.98% (- 990). The weighted positions changed by - 2302 lots to 88766 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 54.25 yuan/kg, and the basis was 5745 yuan/ton [20]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment led to price weakness [21]. - Fundamental analysis: The spot price increased, but downstream hesitation persisted. The supply pressure may ease if the production - cut plan of a leading enterprise is implemented [22]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 4.11% (- 47). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 134.80 million cases (- 2.37%) [24]. - Strategy Views: The glass daily melting volume decreased, and the fuel - cost increase boosted the price. However, the terminal demand was weak, and the high inventory restricted the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 2.18% (- 27). The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 16.44 million tons [25]. - Strategy Views: The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall pattern remained weak [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the black - series commodities still oscillated at the bottom. The actual terminal demand for steel remains weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy window period. Future attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - With the end of the year - end shipping rush by mines, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline. The daily average pig iron output has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. However, the short - term high - volatility risk caused by sentiment leaders such as silver and lithium carbonate should be guarded against. The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there are new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [20][23]. - The glass price has been boosted by the reduction in melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash supply is under pressure, the demand is weak, and the market remains weak [26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.667%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1212 tons to 54421 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 11840 lots to 172.67 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3311 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.516%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 112237 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 10408 lots to 142.75 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black - series commodities are sensitive to news changes, and future attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil de - stocking, "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The iron ore main contract (I2605) closed at 822.50 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (8.00 yuan). The positions increased by 14950 lots to 65.48 million lots. The weighted positions were 98.37 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 829 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.09 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [5]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline, with a large drop in Brazilian shipments. The shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - term arrivals continued to increase. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast furnace utilization rate increased, and the steel mill profitability decreased slightly. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, higher than the same period in previous years. The steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level, with a certain restocking demand. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) closed up 0.44% at 5930 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 1.17% at 5698 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 152 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still unfavorable, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market trends are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 12, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed up 3.55% at 1238.0 yuan/ton. The coke main contract (J2605) closed up 1.26% at 1770.0 yuan/ton [13]. Strategy Views - The recent strength of coking coal was driven by the positive commodity market sentiment and the news of capacity reduction in Yulin. The commodity bullish sentiment may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2605) closed at 8755 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (40 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 4994 lots to 374981 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 95 yuan/ton [19]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2605) closed at 49995 yuan/ton, down 2.54% (1305 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 6218 lots to 91068 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material was unchanged, with a basis of 5005 yuan/ton [21]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable. The supply improvement was limited, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - Polysilicon: The market was affected by anti - monopoly concerns and production reduction rumors. The price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22][23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.09% (1 yuan). The inventory decreased by 134.80 million boxes to 5551.8 million boxes. The positions of the top 20 long - holders decreased by 1305 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 7357 lots [25]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.90% (11 yuan). The inventory increased by 16.44 tons to 157.27 tons. The positions of the top 20 long - holders increased by 2976 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 17392 lots [27]. Strategy Views - Glass: The melting volume decreased, and the fuel cost increased, boosting the price. However, the high inventory restricted the upward space. Future attention should be paid to inventory digestion and actual transactions [26]. - Soda ash: The supply was stable, and the new production capacity was put into operation. The demand from photovoltaic and float glass decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market remained weak [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to remain range - bound. The current production cuts limit the downward drive, but weak demand expectations for the May contracts suppress the upside potential. The upward price elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will gradually transition from a supply - demand surplus to a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory restricts the upside of prices, while the expectation of steel mills' restocking at low inventory levels provides support. Short - term focus is on the trend of hot metal production and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and long - term attention is on negotiation situations [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coke, the supply - demand situation has weakened. The futures price has fallen in advance, and the spot price is gradually adjusting. It is recommended to short the Coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, the overall inventory is moderately increasing, and it is also recommended to short on rallies [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and the price lacks upward momentum. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5650 - 5900 yuan. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance of manganese elements. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 5700 - 6000 yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions remained unchanged on January 5, 2026. Rebar futures contracts declined slightly, and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also showed some drops [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices were stable. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 8 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 20 yuan [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production remained at 226.5 tons. The production of five major steel products increased by 2.3% to 815.2 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.1% to 1232.2 tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed slightly, and the basis of 05 contracts and price spreads between different contracts also showed certain fluctuations [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 1.7%, and the global shipment volume increased by 6.1%. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly production decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 1.1%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6% [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Price and Spread - Coke prices generally declined, with the Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) dropping by 3.2%. Coking coal prices were relatively stable, with the Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remaining unchanged [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production remained stable, and the iron water production also showed no change. The supply of coking coal faced pressure, and the demand for coke was weak due to steel mill losses and maintenance [7]. Inventory - The overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased moderately. The coke total inventory increased by 0.3%, and the coking coal inventory also showed different degrees of increase in various sectors [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 1.4%, and the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 0.4%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions were mostly stable [8]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions changed slightly, and the production profits remained relatively stable [8]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production and demand remained stable, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. The demand for both was affected by the steel market [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday. Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the prices of finished steel products remained in a bottom - oscillating state. Terminal demand was still weak, but steel prices were gradually stabilizing. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was still prominent and difficult to significantly reduce in the short term. [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely. There is still pressure for a phased decline within the price range, and the support for the weighted contract is expected to be at 750 yuan/ton. [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the trading focus is expected to return to the macro level. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] - The price of industrial silicon is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - The polysilicon market shows a situation of tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and between the upstream and downstream of the industry. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] - For glass, in the absence of unexpected changes, a bearish approach is recommended. [18] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 46,276 tons, a net increase of 2135 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.477577 million lots, a net increase of 3036 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (-0.87%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.078676 million lots, a net increase of 11,932 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The rebar production decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable overall performance. [2] - The production of hot - rolled coils decreased, but the apparent demand remained neutral. It was difficult to reduce the inventory, and the social inventory was still at a relatively high level. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.11% (-8.50). The position changed by +20,646 lots to 429,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 928,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.17 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.67%. [4] Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. In Australia, shipments stopped falling and increased, mainly due to the rebound in shipments from Rio Tinto and FMG. The shipment volume from Brazil decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline from Vale. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. [5] - In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output according to the latest Steel Union data was 2.323 million tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance was more than those being restarted, and the annual inspections increased with relatively long durations. The profitability rate of steel mills rebounded slightly after continuous decline, and the number of profitable steel mills was still less than 40%. [5] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 8, coking coal led the decline, and the black sector continued to weaken. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell in the morning and then rebounded in an oscillating manner, closing down 0.38% at 5736 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, remaining stable compared to the previous day, with a premium of 174 yuan/ton over the futures price. [7][8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.55% at 5444 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day, with a premium of 156 yuan/ton over the futures price. [8] Strategy Viewpoints - The trading focus is expected to return to the macro level before the occurrence of intensive macro - events. The subsequent deployment of next year's economic work in the Central Economic Work Conference and potential policy expectations will become the trading focus of the black sector in the future. [9] - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been priced in. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.48% (-130). The weighted contract position changed by +18,060 lots to 459,193 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the quoted price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 625 yuan/ton for 553 and 225 yuan/ton for 421. [11] - For polysilicon, the closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 54,545 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.74% (-965). The weighted contract position changed by -1298 lots to 258,624 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged. The basis of the main contract was -2245 yuan/ton. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon showed a weak trend in the short term. In November, affected by the increase in costs during the dry season, the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased significantly, and the total output decreased. It is expected that the output in the southwest region will continue to decline in December, and the overall output may continue to decline compared to November. The demand weakened slightly, and the supply - demand pattern showed a double - weak situation with no prominent contradictions. The price is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - For polysilicon, the production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the expected capacity ramp - up and start - up of some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production reduction is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells continued to weaken, while upstream silicon enterprises maintained price support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1002 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, an increase of 0.80% (+8). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1060 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China remained unchanged at 1110 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, a decrease of 2.92 million cases (-4.68%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 25,830 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 61,031 lots. [17] - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1133 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, a decrease of 0.35% (-4). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1123 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 48,800 tons (-4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 12,800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 27,379 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 38,430 lots. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - In November, multiple production lines in the domestic glass industry were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a reduction in daily melting capacity. From the perspective of the real estate sector, the industry still faces downward pressure, and a bearish approach is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes. [18] - For soda ash, the overall industry operating rate remained stable, and the supply pressure was still large. The demand was relatively flat, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The production enterprises mainly fulfilled previous orders and had a strong intention to stabilize prices. The Alxa Phase II project is planned to be officially put into production on December 11, which is expected to bring certain pressure to the soda ash market. The market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of steel products, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory, and the iron ore and coking coal and coke markets have cost support. The macro - environment has slightly improved risk appetite, and the third round of the fifth batch of central ecological environmental protection inspections has been launched, which may affect steel production [3][4][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The decline in rebar demand slowed down, and the decline in inventory increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils changed little, and the decrease in production slowed down the increase in total inventory. The end of the US government "shutdown" slightly improved market risk appetite, and prices were supported at low levels. Futures fluctuated, and most spot prices remained stable [9]. - Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions increased, and futures prices of related contracts also generally rose. The long and short positions of some contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads of some products changed. Rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [10]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production both decreased slightly. Rebar blast furnace and electric furnace production decreased. The blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly [13][15][17]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils improved compared with the previous period [27]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions increased [31]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased more, and both factory and social inventories declined. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down, with social inventory stable and factory inventory rising slightly [36][40]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land improved compared with the previous period. In the automotive market, in October 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly [53]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal increased month - on - month, and the port clearance volume continued to increase [58]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to rise, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises increased slightly [63]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level [70]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased slightly [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased, and the inventory of coking plants decreased slightly. The port inventory of coke decreased, and the inventory of coking plants remained at a low level [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continued [96]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread of rebar increased slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore increased [102][106].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the consumption side of steel may gradually recover. In the short term, demand is still weak, but there may be an inflection point in the future [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profits, the demand side continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains high. After the macro - events are realized, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and silicon iron, the fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and both are likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited [13][16]. - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,534 tons, with no change. The main - contract open interest decreased by 11,428 lots to 2.020353 million lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.092%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 889 tons to 99,412 tons. The main - contract open interest decreased by 7743 lots to 1.365348 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and the inventory showed reverse - seasonal accumulation. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the risk of hot - rolled coil inventory still exists. Future attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm. With the improvement of the macro - environment, the demand may recover in the future [2]. Iron Ore Market Conditions - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.19% (+1.50). The open interest decreased by 7164 lots to 537,500 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 57.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.83% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron - ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level in the same period. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory and steel - mill inventory increased. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel - mill profits, the iron - ore demand continued to weaken, and the price was expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Conditions - On November 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.38% at 5798 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 0.47% at 5586 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 14 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, and potential drivers might come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious contradictions, and both were likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9065 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The open interest increased by 1917 lots to 400,305 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 235 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 165 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,395 yuan/ton, up 0.07% (+40). The open interest decreased by 4850 lots to 225,552 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1195 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persisted, and the demand support was weakening. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern might improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range was limited [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Conditions - The glass main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.36% (+4). The price of large - size glass in North China remained unchanged at 1130 yuan, and the price in Central China increased by 20 yuan to 1140 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.654 million boxes (-4.03%) to 63.136 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9576 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 10,400 lots [18]. - The soda - ash main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.00% (+12). The price of heavy - ash in Shahe increased by 12 yuan to 1157 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7142 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 5605 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 22,126 lots [20]. Strategy Views - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the steel market remains positive, with prices rising. However, the demand lacks explosive power, and it is necessary to observe the evolution of contradictions. Carbon elements are expected to outperform iron elements in the fourth quarter [2]. - The market sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is warm, and prices are strong, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals, and more supply - demand changes should be monitored [2]. - The spot price of coking coal and coke is rising, and the coking coal 05 contract has reached a new high. Consider going long on the coking coal contract if the price retraces to the previous high and holds [4]. - For iron ore, the supply is stable, but there are risks of supply - demand imbalance in the fourth quarter. Short - term observation is recommended [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On October 29, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, JM2605, and J2605 were 7000, 12605, 6000, and 5000 yuan/ton respectively. The near - month contract closing prices of HC2601, RB2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3133.00, 3345.00, 804.50, and 1302.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - On October 29, the prices of steel products showed different degrees of increase. The sentiment in the market may be supported by the upcoming leaders' meeting. The steel inventory is decreasing seasonally, but there is still a high - output dilemma. It is recommended to observe the evolution of contradictions. Consider going long on the 01 contract when the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is below 150, and take rolling profit for the futures - cash reverse arbitrage [2][5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The market sentiment is warm, and prices are strong. However, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and negative feedback pressure may occur. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2][5]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading atmosphere in the port market has improved, and the prices of coking coal and coke are rising. The coking coal 05 contract has broken through the previous high. Fundamentally, the supply of coking coal is low, and the demand from steel mills is strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices on the futures side, and industrial customers can consider selling part of the spot due to the premium of the coke futures [4][5]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is within a reasonable range. There are risks of supply - demand imbalance in the fourth quarter due to high pig iron production. The expected increase in supply from Simandou restricts the price ceiling. Short - term observation is recommended [5].