黑色建材日报 2025-08-27 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3113 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 25 元/吨（-0.79%）。当日注册仓单 161306 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 130.8206 万手，环比减少 39624 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3367 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 22 元/吨（-0.64%）。 当日注册仓单 25955 吨, 环比减少 894 吨。主力合约持仓量为 89.9991 万手，环比减少 38254 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3400 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3400 元/吨, 环比减少 30 元/吨。 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by tariff disturbances, with steel prices experiencing increased volatility. The black - series market had a concentrated release of previous bullish sentiment, facing short - term adjustments due to factors such as post - delivery market arrival pressure and recent tariff impacts, but still having upward drivers in the medium term [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory of different steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coils) and raw materials (such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke) show different trends. For example, rebar has limited demand release in the off - season, while hot - rolled coils have a more optimistic demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of raw materials were under pressure at high levels, and steel prices fluctuated and adjusted. The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed, with some rising and some falling. The market sentiment cooled down after the exchange adjusted the coking coal handling fee and imposed position limits. Rebar has been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the inventory increase of hot - rolled coils has slowed down, and the social inventory has decreased. In the short - term, the trend of hot - rolled coils is stronger than that of rebar, and the overall market shows an oscillating adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 220.45 million tons (down 0.33% month - on - month and up 32.51% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 315.59 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted [14][16][27]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 189.94 million tons (down 9.89% month - on - month and down 4.72% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.75 million tons (up 2.79% month - on - month and up 9.21% year - on - year). Rebar demand declined significantly, while hot - rolled coil demand showed an increase [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 587.19 million tons (up 5.48% month - on - month and down 14.97% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 357.47 million tons (up 0.24% month - on - month and down 20.66% year - on - year). Rebar inventory accumulation expanded, and hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation slowed down [39][44]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both weakened month - on - month. In the automotive market, in July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45][50]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.81 (down 0.37% month - on - month and up 6.71% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2669.7 million tons (up 9.96% month - on - month and up 3.41% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2476.6 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 5.49% year - on - year) [57]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 240.66 million tons (up 0.34 million tons month - on - month and up 11.89 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 iron ore ports was 334.67 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 2.43% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.61 days (up 1.26% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [62]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 13819.27 million tons (up 0.78% month - on - month and down 8.07% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9136.4 million tons (up 1.37% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year) [68]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.73% (down 0.19% month - on - month and down 7.14% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 36.51% (up 0.80% month - on - month and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.51 million tons (up 16.60% month - on - month and up 18.28% year - on - year) [74]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 87.72% (up 9.46% week - on - week and up 27.37% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.08% (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 36.73% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was + 20 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 57 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.34% (up 0.42% month - on - month and up 2.07% year - on - year) [82]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 829.31 million tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 23.53% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 805.60 million tons (down 0.36% month - on - month and up 11.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 255.49 million tons (down 7.88% month - on - month and down 25.59% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 39.31 million tons (down 11.92% month - on - month and down 13.98% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 609.8 million tons (down 1.53% month - on - month and up 14.24% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 215.11 million tons (down 1.39% month - on - month and up 14.29% year - on - year) [88][94]. - **Spot Price**: The sixth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [95]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between rebar contracts 10 - 1 has continued to shrink. The spread between iron ore contracts 9 - 1 has continued to narrow, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened again [102][108].

黑色建材日报 2025-08-12 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3250 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 37 元/吨（1.151%）。当日注册仓单 95557 吨, 环比增加 579 吨。主力合约持仓量为 161.2625 万手，环比增加 515 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3340 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3465 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 37 元/吨（1.079%）。 当日注册仓单 69461 吨, 环比减 少 1454 吨。主力合约持仓量为 137.5009 万手，环 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic macro - policies are set to continue and increase efforts, with proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to be implemented. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the market is speculating about a possible September rate cut [1]. - In the long - term, A - shares offer good investment value. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][11]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue to fluctuate. Although there are long - term drivers, the high price makes upward movement hesitant [3][19]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. However, the economic data improvement may be overestimated, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3% [6]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with the board delegation of the US - China Business Council, emphasizing the need to establish communication channels and maintain stable Sino - US economic and trade relations [7]. - **Industry News**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new production capacity of copper smelting and alumina, and guide the rational layout of new capacity for silicon, lithium, and magnesium [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.12%, the European STOXX 50 increased by 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.13%, the US dollar index increased by 1.06%, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 0.98%, and gold and silver prices declined [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices showed mixed performance. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small - cap stocks weakening. The bank sector has performed well since 2025, and it is expected that the proportion of long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase. A - shares have high long - term investment value [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined. Overseas, the US GDP growth exceeded expectations, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits improved, and the IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices may stabilize [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose for three consecutive days. The US economic growth in Q2 exceeded expectations, but the improvement may be overestimated. US crude oil inventories increased, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.9% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated during the day. Spot prices were stable. In the short - term, they will fluctuate widely, and the market is divided. The focus is on the process of fundamental repair [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded and then declined. The summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and inventories decreased. The short - term focus is on policy implementation and fundamental digestion speed [17]. - **Rubber**: The recent rainfall in the producing areas affected rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and there were uncertainties about a September rate cut. The US economic data showed resilience, and the long - term drivers of gold still provided support, but the high price made upward movement difficult [3][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The US only imposed a 50% tariff on copper products, exempting refined copper. The processing fee for concentrates is low, and downstream demand is generally stable. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The processing fee for concentrates has been rising. Domestic demand shows mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short - term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose due to mining qualification issues. The demand in July continued to be strong, but the inventory increased. The short - term focus is on warehouse receipts, and the medium - term does not have the basis for a reversal [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production momentum of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The inventory at ports is decreasing rapidly, and the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the inventory is decreasing. Steel exports are facing challenges, but billet exports are strong. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the coke production improved. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while that in coal mines decreased. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish after adjustment [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean growth is good, and the futures price is under pressure. The domestic protein meal price is supported by concerns about soybean supply and the rise of rapeseed meal price [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed up. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the export decreased. The market is concerned about trade trends, which support the oil and fat sector [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 0.45%. The spot freight rate has begun to loosen, and the 10 - contract is at a deep discount, which provides some support. The market will gradually shift to the off - season freight rate game [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban work meetings and the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on urban renewal and community building [1] - The U.S. retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, alleviating some concerns about consumer spending, with 10 out of 13 retail categories showing growth, primarily driven by a recovery in auto sales [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for comprehensive implementation of various livelihood projects and safety engineering [1] Group 2 - In the steel market, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with a gradual decline in iron water production, while steel inventory continues to decrease [2][21] - The overall steel market is not facing significant supply-demand imbalances, and short-term exports are expected to remain resilient despite tariff impacts [2][21] - The macroeconomic outlook is strong, contributing to price increases in black commodities, including steel [2][21] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the banking sector has lagged [3][8] - The financing balance has increased, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may reduce stock market volatility [3][8] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3][8] Group 4 - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with the EC contract closing at 1581.3 points, down 4.28% [4][25] - Despite a general decline in shipping rates, the European line has not followed the U.S. line's downward trend, indicating a potential recovery in market expectations [4][25] - The focus is on the upcoming August shipping rates, with limited information currently available from shipping companies [4][25] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission reported that central enterprises achieved a total added value of 5.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - The emphasis is on transitioning from labor-intensive growth to innovation-driven growth for high-quality development [6] - The National Intellectual Property Administration has reported an increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, particularly focusing on tariff negotiations and their implications for various industries and markets [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Negotiations - U.S. President Trump announced plans to negotiate tariffs with multiple countries, including the EU, and has already sent letters to over 20 national leaders regarding new tariffs set to take effect on August 1 [1]. - A 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. was also announced, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with inventory decreasing by 970,000 heavy boxes to 57.34 million heavy boxes [2][15]. Soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 1.864 million tons, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels [2][15]. - **Stock Indices**: U.S. stock indices saw slight fluctuations with a market turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.082 billion yuan to 1.862586 trillion yuan, suggesting a growing interest in long-term investments [3][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, while inventory rose by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons, indicating a mixed market sentiment with potential price fluctuations ahead [4][21]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's total goods trade for the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [6]. - The People's Bank of China reported a 7.1% year-on-year increase in RMB loans, with the total social financing scale growing by 8.9% [8]. Group 4: Market Trends - **Bond Market**: The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.668%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [10]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices are under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding global tariffs and production increases from OPEC, which may affect demand forecasts [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which may impact future prices and market dynamics [25].