Summary of Beike's Conference Call Company Overview - Beike operates as a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a comprehensive business layout including second-hand and new housing transactions, home decoration, and rental services [3][6] Key Financial Highlights - Total transaction volume for 2024 is projected to reach 3.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% - Net revenue is expected to be 93.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.2% year-on-year growth, marking a historical high [2][7] - The company achieved profitability in 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.06 billion yuan, adjusted to 7.2 billion yuan [2][7] - Gross margin is stable at 24.6%, with an operating expense ratio optimized to 20.4% and an adjusted net profit margin of 7.7% [2][7] - Cash and short-term investments total 61.6 billion yuan, with a $3 billion share repurchase plan in place [2][8] Business Segments Performance Existing Housing Transactions - The existing housing transaction volume is expected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan in 2024, a 4.8% increase year-on-year, accounting for 31% of the national second-hand housing transaction volume [2][13] - The overall commission rate for 2024 is projected at 1.26%, with the self-operated segment affected by policy changes, reducing to 2.51% [2][14] New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction volume is projected at 970 billion yuan, representing 11.4% of the national new housing market [2][17] - The commission rate for new housing is expected to reach 3.47%, the highest since 2017 [2][18] Home Decoration and Furniture - The home decoration business is expected to reach a transaction volume of 16.9 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with net revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, showing a compound annual growth rate of over 300% from 2021 to 2024 [2][20] - The home decoration market is projected to reach 7.1 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating significant growth potential [21] Rental Business - The rental business has expanded rapidly, managing over 430,000 units by 2024, with net revenue of 14.33 billion yuan and a profit margin of 5% [2][23] Strategic Initiatives - Beike's "One Body, Three Wings" strategy focuses on real estate brokerage as the core, with collaborative development in home decoration and rental services [2][6] - The ACN (Agent Cooperation Network) enhances service quality and efficiency, with a 75% cross-store cooperation rate in second-hand housing transactions [2][10][11] Market Position and Future Outlook - Beike maintains a strong market position, with a total transaction volume of 3.3 trillion yuan in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [9] - The company has a robust store network with over 52,000 locations and 500,000 agents, reinforcing its competitive edge [9] - Future growth is anticipated in the home decoration and rental sectors, supported by strong cash flow and shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends [25]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Beike-W (2423.HK), with a current stock price of HKD 49.55 [1]. Core Views - Beike is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction service platform, with a strong foundation in real estate brokerage and a strategic focus on three wings: home decoration, rental services, and Beihome [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, with net revenue reaching CNY 934.6 billion, marking a historical high [6][21]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a significant cash reserve and a share buyback plan in place [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Integrated Real Estate Transaction and Service Platform - Beike began operations in 2001 and has expanded its services to include second-hand and new home transactions, home decoration, and rental services [11]. - The company has established a "one body, three wings" strategy, with a projected total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024 [6][11]. 2. Real Estate Brokerage: Strong Leadership and Operational Advantages - Beike holds a dominant position in the real estate brokerage industry, with a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [51]. - The company has implemented the "True Source" standard and the ACN network, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [54]. 3. Three Wings Business: Home Decoration, Rental, and Beihome Potential - The home decoration segment is rapidly growing, with a projected transaction volume of CNY 169 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 329.7% from 2021 to 2024 [6]. - The rental business has expanded significantly, with managed properties increasing from 70,000 in 2022 to 420,000 in 2024 [6]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts EPS of CNY 1.58, CNY 1.83, and CNY 2.11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.7, 24.8, and 21.5 [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable commission rate in the new home market, while the second-hand home commission rate may face pressure [6].