Core Viewpoint - Beike (BEKE.US/02423.HK) has reported steady performance in its latest financial results, despite underperforming compared to the broader market in both Hong Kong and the US this year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance Highlights - Total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached 1.72 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with existing home GTV growing by 13.7% and new home GTV by 26.0%, significantly above industry averages [6] - Net revenue for the first half of the year was 49.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1%, indicating improved monetization capabilities [7] - Non-real estate transaction services are increasingly contributing to revenue, with home decoration and rental services generating 7.5 billion yuan and 10.7 billion yuan respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 16.5% and 85.2% [8] Group 2: Business Growth and Network Expansion - The number of Beike stores reached 60,500, and the number of agents increased to 558,000, enhancing the platform's ecosystem and competitiveness [10] - The share buyback program has been robust, with 394 million USD in American Depositary Shares repurchased in the first half of the year, and a total of 2.02 billion USD since the program's initiation, representing 10.3% of the total shares before the buyback [11] Group 3: Market Expectations and Valuation Discrepancies - The market continues to value Beike primarily as a "real estate transaction platform," overlooking its transformation into a comprehensive "residential service ecosystem," which has significant value [14] - Short-term fluctuations in profitability have overshadowed long-term structural improvements, with healthy operating cash flow indicating strong core business performance [16][17] - The market has underestimated the efficiency gains from Beike's investments in AI and technology, which are crucial for enhancing service delivery and operational efficiency [18] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current bull market in Hong Kong and A-shares has led to increased recognition of Beike's growth potential, with several institutions issuing buy ratings and target prices indicating substantial upside [4][20] - Recent capital inflows into Beike's stock suggest a positive market sentiment, with a notable increase in holdings from Hong Kong Stock Connect [23]

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：袁豪/陈鹏 公司25Q2 实现净收入260.1 亿元，同比+11.3%；毛利润57.0 亿元，同比-12.5%；归母净利润13.0 亿元， 同比-31.2%；经调后归母净利润18.2 亿元，同比-32.4%。公司25Q2毛利率21.9%，同比-6.0pct；销售 +管理+研发费用率合计17.7%，同比-1.4pct；归母净利率5.0%，同比-3.1pct；经调后归母净利率7.0%， 同比-4.5pct。截至25Q2 末，公司现金、现金等价物、受限资金和短期投资合计531 亿元，同比-11.1%。 25Q2 一二手房经纪GTV 实现稳健增长，货币化率相对稳定。2025Q2 公司存量房交易额5,835 亿元，同 比+2.2%；其中链家、贝联GTV 占比37%、63%；二手房收入67 亿元，同比-8.4%；贡献利润26.8 亿 元，同比-22.9%；贡献利润率39.9%，同比-7.5pct；链家、贝联货币化率分别为2.53%、0.38%，环比持 平、+0.02pct；GTV 增速较收入更高源于贝联贡献占比更高，贝联GTV 增幅可观，但与平台服务费等 激励性减免相抵消，推动贝联收入持平。新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively expanding its main business and new business contributions are continuously improving, while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down due to market uncertainties and strategic adjustments in the home decoration business [1][2]. Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue reached 26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, which is in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 1.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32.4%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations of 1.72 billion yuan [1]. - The existing housing segment saw a GTV growth of 2.2% year-on-year, but revenue declined by 8.4% due to increased contribution from ACN store transactions and incentive reductions for stores [1]. - The new housing segment demonstrated channel advantages with a GTV growth of 8.5% year-on-year and revenue growth of 8.6%, with fee rates remaining stable [1]. - New business in home decoration and home furnishing focused on quality delivery, with revenue growth of 13.0% year-on-year, while the rental business saw a 78% increase in revenue [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its store network and franchise brands to drive market share growth, while continuously optimizing the home decoration business to enhance product and delivery quality [2]. - The company has extended its existing share repurchase plan to 5 billion USD, with a deadline extended to August 31, 2028, and a remaining repurchase scale of 2.98 billion USD as of June 2025, representing approximately 13.5% of the current market value [2]. - The company aims to improve service quality in the home decoration business as foundational capabilities are enhanced, with expectations of narrowing loss rates [2].

Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423) reported a total net revenue of RMB 49.339 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.13%, while net profit attributable to Beike Holdings Limited decreased by 7.2% to RMB 2.157 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net income for the first half of the year was RMB 49.339 billion, a 24.13% increase year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to Beike Holdings Limited was RMB 2.157 billion, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share for ordinary shareholders was RMB 0.64 [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Operations - The company is transitioning from scale-driven growth to efficiency-driven growth, leveraging AI technology and scientific management in property transaction services [2] - In the home decoration and furnishing business, the company is focusing on community cultivation and enhancing user trust and convenience through productized model homes [2] - The rental service is improving operational efficiency through product iteration and AI-driven operations [2] Group 3: Market Position and Growth - The platform's non-chain active store count increased by 36.8% year-on-year, and the number of non-chain active agents grew by nearly 24% [3] - Non-property transaction services accounted for 41% of total net revenue in the second quarter, marking a historical high [3] - The company has repurchased approximately USD 394 million in shares, representing about 1.7% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024, and has increased the share repurchase authorization from USD 3 billion to USD 5 billion, extending the plan until August 31, 2028 [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Beike-W (2423.HK), with a current stock price of HKD 49.55 [1]. Core Views - Beike is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction service platform, with a strong foundation in real estate brokerage and a strategic focus on three wings: home decoration, rental services, and Beihome [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, with net revenue reaching CNY 934.6 billion, marking a historical high [6][21]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a significant cash reserve and a share buyback plan in place [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Integrated Real Estate Transaction and Service Platform - Beike began operations in 2001 and has expanded its services to include second-hand and new home transactions, home decoration, and rental services [11]. - The company has established a "one body, three wings" strategy, with a projected total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024 [6][11]. 2. Real Estate Brokerage: Strong Leadership and Operational Advantages - Beike holds a dominant position in the real estate brokerage industry, with a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [51]. - The company has implemented the "True Source" standard and the ACN network, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [54]. 3. Three Wings Business: Home Decoration, Rental, and Beihome Potential - The home decoration segment is rapidly growing, with a projected transaction volume of CNY 169 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 329.7% from 2021 to 2024 [6]. - The rental business has expanded significantly, with managed properties increasing from 70,000 in 2022 to 420,000 in 2024 [6]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts EPS of CNY 1.58, CNY 1.83, and CNY 2.11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.7, 24.8, and 21.5 [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable commission rate in the new home market, while the second-hand home commission rate may face pressure [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beike, reported strong growth in its real estate business, particularly in the second-hand housing and rental services sectors, despite a challenging market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Beike's total transaction volume for second-hand housing reached 580.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.1% [1]. - Net income from second-hand housing business was 6.9 billion RMB, up 20% year-on-year, while net income from new housing business was 8.1 billion RMB, reflecting a significant growth of 64.2% [1][2]. - The company's total net income for Q1 2025 was 16.4 billion RMB, an increase of 3.2% compared to the previous year [1]. Business Segments - The company has shifted its strategy to "one body, three wings," integrating real estate brokerage with home decoration and rental services, and adding a new segment, Beihome [2]. - Non-real estate transaction service revenue grew by 46.2% year-on-year, accounting for 35.9% of total net income, with home decoration revenue at 2.9 billion RMB (up 22.3%) and rental service revenue at 5.1 billion RMB (up 93.8%) [2]. Profitability - Beike's gross profit increased from 4.1 billion RMB to 4.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 17%, although the gross margin decreased from 25.2% to 20.7% [3]. - The increase in operating costs was noted, with external commissions and internal salaries rising significantly, leading to a higher cost structure [3]. Cash Position - As of March 31, 2025, Beike had a total balance of cash, cash equivalents, restricted funds, and short-term investments amounting to 54.8 billion RMB [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and market share in brokerage, indicating a long-term positive trend despite short-term performance fluctuations [6][7] - The company reported a total transaction volume (GTV) of 3.35 trillion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with significant contributions from existing home transactions and emerging businesses [6][7] - The company is focusing on shareholder returns, having repurchased shares worth 716 million USD and planned a cash dividend of 400 million USD, representing 5% of the market value at the end of 2024 [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 77.777 billion yuan - 2024: 93.457 billion yuan (20% YoY growth) - 2025E: 110.740 billion yuan (18% YoY growth) - 2026E: 122.649 billion yuan (11% YoY growth) - 2027E: 135.786 billion yuan (11% YoY growth) [6][10] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 5.883 billion yuan - 2024: 4.065 billion yuan (-31% YoY) - 2025E: 6.201 billion yuan (53% YoY) - 2026E: 7.544 billion yuan (22% YoY) - 2027E: 9.121 billion yuan (21% YoY) [6][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2023: 1.63 yuan - 2024: 1.15 yuan - 2025E: 1.76 yuan - 2026E: 2.14 yuan - 2027E: 2.58 yuan [6][10] Market Share and Business Segments - The company achieved a record high market share of 31% in existing home transactions for 2024, with a transaction volume of 2.25 trillion yuan, up 10.8% YoY [6][7] - In the new home segment, the company reported a transaction volume of 970 billion yuan, down 3.3% YoY, but maintained a market share of 11.4% [6][8] - The company’s home decoration and rental services saw significant revenue growth, with home decoration revenue increasing by 36% and rental services by 135% [6][8] Investment Analysis Opinion - The report concludes that the company’s revenue and brokerage market share are at record highs, and despite short-term performance fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, thus maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][22]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 93.46 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, while the adjusted net profit was 7.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.4% [1]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to rising costs and taxes, with operating costs increasing by 25.8% year-on-year, surpassing revenue growth [2]. - The company is focusing on long-term sustainable growth by increasing investments in stores and agents, which is expected to gradually improve performance [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, with an adjusted net profit of 1.34 billion yuan, down 21.6% year-on-year [1]. Operational Analysis - The company experienced growth in both existing and new housing revenues, with a notable increase in the monetization rate for new homes [2]. - The gross transaction value (GTV) for existing homes increased by 10.8%, while new homes saw a decrease of 3.3% [2]. Non-Transaction Business Growth - Non-property transaction revenue accounted for 34% of total revenue, up 9.1 percentage points year-on-year, with home decoration and rental income showing significant growth [3]. - Home decoration GTV increased by 27.3%, and rental income surged by 135%, with over 430,000 managed rental units by year-end [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for 2025-2027 is 8.65 billion, 9.88 billion, and 10.96 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 20.0%, 14.2%, and 10.9% [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23.1x, 20.2x, and 18.2x for 2025-2027 [4].