Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net revenue of 23.052 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit decreased by 36.1% to 747 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in the proportion of high-margin businesses and a reduction in non-operating income [5][13]. - The company continues to optimize operational efficiency, with a total GTV of 736.7 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year. Cost rigidity has impacted profit margins, leading to a 1.3 percentage point decline in overall gross margin to 21.4% [13][17]. - The "two wings" business segments, home decoration and rental services, showed significant improvement, with rental income increasing by 45.3% year-on-year to 5.727 billion yuan, achieving profitability at the city level [5][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the existing home GTV was 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, but net income decreased by 3.6% to 5.991 billion yuan due to a higher proportion of GTV from agents [14]. - The new home GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year, with net income declining by 14.1% to 6.639 billion yuan, reflecting a similar trend to the national residential sales decline [15]. - The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 6.083 billion, 7.146 billion, and 8.095 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23x, 20x, and 17x [17]. Business Segments - Home decoration and rental services both achieved city-level profitability, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and rental services revenue at 5.727 billion yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year [16]. - The contribution margin for home decoration improved by 0.8 percentage points, while rental services saw a 4.3 percentage point increase in contribution margin [16]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 94.665 billion, 92.631 billion, and 96.035 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.3%, -2.1%, and 3.7% respectively [18]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to decline by 15.5% in 2025, followed by increases of 17.5% and 13.3% in 2026 and 2027 [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 performance, showing a slight revenue increase but significant declines in net profit and Non-GAAP net profit compared to the previous year [4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved revenue/net profit/Non-GAAP net profit of 23.1/0.75/1.29 billion yuan, representing year-on-year changes of +2.1%/-36.1%/-27.8% [4]. - The company's revenue growth has been declining quarter by quarter throughout the year [5]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 21.4%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the revenue share of the higher-margin new home business [7]. Group 2: Real Estate Segment - The second-hand housing segment saw GTV/revenue of 505.6/6.0 billion yuan in Q3, with year-on-year changes of +5.8%/-3.6% [5]. - The new housing segment reported GTV/revenue of 196.3/6.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of -13.8%/-14.1% [5]. - The monetization rates for second-hand and new homes were 2.53% and 3.38%, respectively, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [5]. Group 3: Home Decoration and Rental Business - The home decoration and rental businesses generated revenues of 4.3/5.7 billion yuan in Q3, with year-on-year growth of +2.1%/+45.3% [6]. - The profit margin for home decoration was 32.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved procurement costs and efficiency [6]. - The rental business achieved a profit margin of 8.7%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased gross margins in the "worry-free rental" service [6]. Group 4: Cost Management - The sales/management/R&D expense ratios were 7.5%/8.1%/2.8%, showing year-on-year changes of -1.1/-0.3/+0.3 percentage points [7]. - The decrease in sales expense ratio was driven by reduced labor costs and lower marketing expenses due to operational efficiency strategies [7]. - The company continued to enhance shareholder returns, with Q3 share buybacks reaching 280 million USD, the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [7].

Core Insights - The company reported a total transaction value (GTV) of 736.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, remaining flat year-on-year, with net revenue of 23.05 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 750 million yuan, down 36% year-on-year [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's GTV for existing homes was 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, while new home GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved a gross margin of 21.4% in Q3 2025, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with total sales, management, and R&D expense ratio at 18.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The cash and cash equivalents, restricted funds, and short-term investments totaled 55.7 billion yuan at the end of Q3 2025, down 6.4% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The company’s second-hand housing revenue was 6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 3.6% year-on-year, with a contribution profit of 2.33 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year [2] - The home decoration and rental business saw significant growth, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and rental income at 5.73 billion yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year [2] Market Position and Outlook - The company maintains a strong market position with a stable brokerage business and improving profit margins in emerging sectors, leading to a "buy" rating [3] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward due to declining transaction volumes in the real estate market, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to 3.6 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that due to ongoing pressures in the real estate industry, the profit forecasts for Beike-W (02423) have been revised downwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 3.718 billion, 4.774 billion, and 5.820 billion yuan, representing decreases of 11%, 8%, and 4% respectively. The company, being a leader in real estate brokerage, is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market, with significant growth potential in home decoration and rental sectors, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1 - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of 23.1 billion yuan, net profit of 750 million yuan, and Non-GAAP net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, showing year-on-year changes of +2.1%, -36.1%, and -27.8% respectively [2]. - The company's revenue growth is slowing down throughout the year, with Q3 showing a 2.1% increase year-on-year. The second-hand housing GTV was 505.6 billion yuan, with revenue of 6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of +5.8% and -3.6% respectively [3]. - The new housing GTV in Q3 was 196.3 billion yuan, with revenue of 6.6 billion yuan, showing year-on-year declines of -13.8% and -14.1% respectively [3]. Group 2 - The home decoration and rental businesses achieved revenues of 4.3 billion and 5.7 billion yuan in Q3, with year-on-year growth of +2.1% and +45.3% respectively. Both segments have shown a gradual decline in revenue growth over the past two years [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 21.4%, down by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the revenue share from the higher-margin new housing business [5]. - The company has been enhancing shareholder returns, with a share buyback amounting to 280 million USD in Q3, marking the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [5].

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, and the real estate service sector is also noteworthy. Beike's Q3 2025 financial report shows revenue and total transaction volume growth, but a decline in net profit and gross margin, indicating cyclical challenges faced by the company [1][5][19] - Beike's traditional core business is under pressure, with new home transaction volume (GTV) down 13.7%, which was previously a significant profit driver [1][5][7] - To regain investor confidence amid performance pressures, Beike has initiated a share buyback program, spending $280 million in Q3, a 38.3% increase year-on-year, marking a two-year quarterly high [1][5][19] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Beike reported net revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, a 2.1% year-on-year increase, while net profit fell by 36.1% to 747 million yuan [5][7] - The real estate transaction business, which constitutes about 55% of Beike's revenue, is struggling, with both new and existing home transactions underperforming [5][7][8] - New home transaction GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7%, with corresponding net revenue decreasing by 14.1% to 6.6 billion yuan. Existing home transaction GTV increased by 5.8% to 505.6 billion yuan, but net revenue fell by 3.6% to 6 billion yuan [7][8] Business Transformation - Beike is accelerating its transformation towards home decoration services to reduce reliance on new home transactions, forming a collaborative development structure with four core businesses: second-hand homes, new homes, rentals, and home decoration [3][4][12] - The company is adopting a "B+" light operation model to penetrate lower-tier cities, with plans to expand to over 30 cities by year-end [10][19] - Non-real estate transaction business revenue reached a record high of 45% of total revenue, with rental services showing significant growth, up 45.3% year-on-year to 5.7 billion yuan [13][15] Challenges and Competition - The home decoration and rental markets are highly competitive and fragmented, with Beike facing challenges in maintaining profitability amid rising costs and market saturation [16][18] - The rental business's expansion has led to a 38.8% increase in costs, while the home decoration sector also faces issues related to industry fragmentation and consumer trust [16][18] - Beike's efforts to leverage AI technology for operational efficiency are ongoing, with AI applications already implemented across various business lines, but the effectiveness of these initiatives remains to be fully realized [19][21] Future Outlook - The company's ability to balance short-term cost pressures with long-term technology investments will be crucial for its recovery and growth [21][22] - Beike's share buyback program aims to stabilize market confidence, but sustainable profitability improvements are essential for long-term investor trust [19][22]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a "Buy" rating for Beike-W (02423), citing its increasing market share in brokerage services and promising growth in home decoration and rental businesses, while its valuation remains attractive compared to smaller competitors like Wo Ai Wo Jia [1] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, Beike reported a total transaction volume (GTV) of 736.7 billion yuan, unchanged year-on-year; net revenue was 23.05 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year; and adjusted net profit was 1.29 billion yuan, down 27.8% year-on-year [2] - The company’s cumulative net revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 72.39 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 4.5 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with total sales, management, and R&D expense ratio at 18.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Business Segment Analysis - In Q3 2025, the second-hand housing GTV was 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, while new housing GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year; the monetization rates for second-hand and new housing were 2.53% and 3.4%, respectively [3] - The home decoration and rental businesses showed significant growth, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and rental revenue at 5.73 billion yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year, both achieving profitability before headquarter expenses [3] Investment Outlook - The company faces significant GTV pressure in Q4 2025 due to declining transaction activity in both the primary and secondary markets; revenue from brokerage services is expected to be under pressure, and growth in the home decoration segment may slow down [4] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards to 3.6 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Beike-W (02423), is expected to benefit from the vast potential of China's second-hand housing market, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected revenues of 103.3 billion, 117.1 billion, and 130.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [1] - The company is anticipated to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of 7.4 billion, 8.8 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan for the same period, indicating profit elasticity due to diversification into home decoration and furniture businesses [1] - The company's leading position in the real estate brokerage sector is solid, with a significant growth potential in the second-hand housing business, which is expected to stabilize first in the current industry cycle [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its three wings of business, particularly in the home decoration sector, which is seen as a second growth curve due to the vast market space in China [2] - The home decoration industry has historically lacked large-scale enterprises due to its non-standardized, low-frequency, and bulk nature, but the company aims to leverage its brokerage business to reduce customer acquisition costs and enhance brand effect [2] - The company's standardized capabilities and operational model are expected to effectively address trust issues in the traditional home decoration industry, positioning it well for future integration [2]

Core Viewpoint - Beike (BEKE.US/02423.HK) has reported steady performance in its latest financial results, despite underperforming compared to the broader market in both Hong Kong and the US this year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance Highlights - Total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached 1.72 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with existing home GTV growing by 13.7% and new home GTV by 26.0%, significantly above industry averages [6] - Net revenue for the first half of the year was 49.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1%, indicating improved monetization capabilities [7] - Non-real estate transaction services are increasingly contributing to revenue, with home decoration and rental services generating 7.5 billion yuan and 10.7 billion yuan respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 16.5% and 85.2% [8] Group 2: Business Growth and Network Expansion - The number of Beike stores reached 60,500, and the number of agents increased to 558,000, enhancing the platform's ecosystem and competitiveness [10] - The share buyback program has been robust, with 394 million USD in American Depositary Shares repurchased in the first half of the year, and a total of 2.02 billion USD since the program's initiation, representing 10.3% of the total shares before the buyback [11] Group 3: Market Expectations and Valuation Discrepancies - The market continues to value Beike primarily as a "real estate transaction platform," overlooking its transformation into a comprehensive "residential service ecosystem," which has significant value [14] - Short-term fluctuations in profitability have overshadowed long-term structural improvements, with healthy operating cash flow indicating strong core business performance [16][17] - The market has underestimated the efficiency gains from Beike's investments in AI and technology, which are crucial for enhancing service delivery and operational efficiency [18] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current bull market in Hong Kong and A-shares has led to increased recognition of Beike's growth potential, with several institutions issuing buy ratings and target prices indicating substantial upside [4][20] - Recent capital inflows into Beike's stock suggest a positive market sentiment, with a notable increase in holdings from Hong Kong Stock Connect [23]

Core Insights - The company reported a total transaction value (GTV) of 878.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1][2] - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached 26.01 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 31.2% to 1.3 billion yuan [2][3] - The company is experiencing steady growth in its brokerage business, with a significant increase in the number of active stores and agents, which is expected to enhance market share [2][3] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 GTV for existing home transactions was 583.5 billion yuan, up 2.2% year-on-year, while new home transactions reached 255.4 billion yuan, up 8.5% [1][2] - The company's gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 21.9%, down 6.0 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.0%, down 3.1 percentage points [2] - Cash and cash equivalents, along with restricted funds and short-term investments, totaled 53.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The home decoration and furniture segment achieved a revenue of 4.57 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 13.0% year-on-year, with a contribution margin of 32.1% [3] - The rental business saw a remarkable revenue increase of 78.0% year-on-year, reaching 5.67 billion yuan, with a contribution margin of 8.4% [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing its brokerage business while also expanding into home decoration and rental services as potential growth avenues [4] Market Position and Outlook - The company is strengthening its position in the brokerage sector and has established significant barriers to entry, aiming for a comprehensive control of the transaction process [4] - Despite a decline in transaction activity in the real estate market, the company is expected to maintain its market share and benefit from growth in home decoration and rental services [4] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward, but the company remains optimistic about its valuation and growth potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively expanding its main business and new business contributions are continuously improving, while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down due to market uncertainties and strategic adjustments in the home decoration business [1][2]. Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue reached 26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, which is in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 1.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32.4%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations of 1.72 billion yuan [1]. - The existing housing segment saw a GTV growth of 2.2% year-on-year, but revenue declined by 8.4% due to increased contribution from ACN store transactions and incentive reductions for stores [1]. - The new housing segment demonstrated channel advantages with a GTV growth of 8.5% year-on-year and revenue growth of 8.6%, with fee rates remaining stable [1]. - New business in home decoration and home furnishing focused on quality delivery, with revenue growth of 13.0% year-on-year, while the rental business saw a 78% increase in revenue [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its store network and franchise brands to drive market share growth, while continuously optimizing the home decoration business to enhance product and delivery quality [2]. - The company has extended its existing share repurchase plan to 5 billion USD, with a deadline extended to August 31, 2028, and a remaining repurchase scale of 2.98 billion USD as of June 2025, representing approximately 13.5% of the current market value [2]. - The company aims to improve service quality in the home decoration business as foundational capabilities are enhanced, with expectations of narrowing loss rates [2].