Group 1 - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain the oil production quotas for the entire group unchanged until 2026 and will establish a mechanism to assess the maximum oil production capacity of member countries [1] - The meeting comes as the U.S. is working to facilitate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to an increase in oil supply if sanctions on Russia are relaxed [1] - Eight OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, reaffirmed their decision to suspend production increases for January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonal reasons [1]

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, dated July 29, 2025, prepared by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly focused on the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, with US EIA commercial inventories and ARA and Singapore diesel inventories declining, while US and domestic diesel inventories increased. Refining margins globally declined slightly but remained high year-on-year. Domestic refinery operations were volatile, with Shandong refineries increasing production. Recently, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, and refinery margins weakened. Although factors such as the peak demand season for crude oil, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near - term supply and demand of crude oil, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy [7] Summary by Section 1. Price Data - From July 22 to July 28, 2025, WTI increased by $1.55 to $66.71, BRENT increased by $1.60 to $70.04, and DUBAI increased by $0.23 to $70.59. Other related products also showed various price changes, such as SC decreasing by 7.00 to 505.90, and Japanese naphtha - BRT decreasing by 13.76 [3] 2. Daily News - Trump warned Iran not to restart nuclear facilities, threatening new strikes if they do. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and will not abandon uranium - enrichment activities [3] - OPEC+ is considering another production increase and urging members to comply with quotas. Some countries are instructed to make additional cuts. They will hold a meeting on August 3 to discuss September's production levels, with a planned increase of 548,000 barrels per day [3] - India's crude oil imports in June dropped 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest since February. Refinery throughput also decreased 4.2% month - on - month. The decline may be due to the monsoon season, and the trend may continue in July, but year - on - year imports are expected to rise [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 18, US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 419 million barrels (a 0.75% decline), and the strategic petroleum reserve decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels (a 0.05% decline) [5] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, while that of Shandong local refineries increased by 1.17%. China's refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with inventory changes of an increase in gasoline and a decrease in diesel. Both major refineries and local refineries saw a decline in comprehensive profits [6] 4. Weekly Viewpoints - The market is focused on US trade negotiations. Global oil inventories are slightly decreasing, and refining margins are high year - on - year. Domestic refinery operations are volatile, and refinery margins are weakening. The near - term supply and demand of crude oil are supported by peak - season factors, but these factors are largely realized, and the monthly spreads are declining. The absolute prices face downward pressure in the medium term [7]

Group 1 - European stocks have slightly declined from a four-month high as investors assess the impact of the US-EU trade agreement, with the German DAX index showing a balanced sentiment between bulls and bears [1] - The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee has urged member countries to adhere to oil production quotas, with a meeting scheduled for this weekend among eight member countries to discuss future market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 69% compared to 31% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 64% against 36% bearish [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a near-even sentiment with 49% bullish and 51% bearish, while the Dow Jones Index shows a strong bearish sentiment at 76% [3] - The German DAX40 Index reflects a balanced sentiment with 52% bullish and 48% bearish [3]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain the current oil production quota plan for the group [1] - A separate meeting is scheduled for May 31 to discuss potential oil production increases for July [1] - The next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting is planned for November 30 [1]

Group 1 - OPEC+ will hold an online meeting to review production quotas for this year and next, with key member countries deciding on potential production increases over the weekend [1] - The alliance is expected to maintain its long-term targets for 2025 and 2026, which are the basis for current supply restrictions [1] - Discussions on whether to continue increasing production by 410,000 barrels per day will be finalized in a video meeting [1] Group 2 - The importance of overall oil quotas within the OPEC+ alliance has diminished, with actual supply adjustments being led by Saudi Arabia and Russia [2] - A significant production increase announced on April 3 shocked the market, leading to a drop in oil prices to below $60 per barrel [2] - The recent price drop marked a failure of the alliance's efforts to support oil prices over the years [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ representatives have provided multiple explanations for the policy shift, including meeting summer fuel demand and regaining lost market share [6] - The eight major oil-producing countries have restored more than half of the 2.2 million barrels per day that were paused since 2023 [6] - The upcoming meeting may provide Saudi Arabia an opportunity to propose modifications to the base production quotas [6]

Core Viewpoint - Kazakhstan's energy ministry announced no plans for oil production cuts in May, maintaining tensions within OPEC+ due to continued breaches of production limits [1] Group 1: Production and Compliance - Kazakhstan's average daily production of crude oil and condensate in May is set at 277,000 tons, unchanged from April, while March's production was 260,000 tons [1] - The OPEC+ agreement stipulates that Kazakhstan's crude oil production should be slightly below 1.4 million barrels per day for May, with planned production (including condensate) estimated at approximately 2 million barrels per day [1] - Kazakhstan typically produces around 260,000 barrels per day of condensate, a type of light oil [1] Group 2: Relations with OPEC+ - OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia, have recently agreed to significantly increase oil production, surprising traders and causing a drop in oil prices [1] - Saudi Arabia has warned that it will further increase oil production if quota violators do not comply with regulations [1] - Kazakhstan asserts limited influence over production decisions for domestic projects operated by foreign companies, as highlighted by Chevron's CEO stating no government directives to limit production at the Tengiz oil project [2]