Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, dated July 29, 2025, prepared by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly focused on the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, with US EIA commercial inventories and ARA and Singapore diesel inventories declining, while US and domestic diesel inventories increased. Refining margins globally declined slightly but remained high year-on-year. Domestic refinery operations were volatile, with Shandong refineries increasing production. Recently, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, and refinery margins weakened. Although factors such as the peak demand season for crude oil, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near - term supply and demand of crude oil, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy [7] Summary by Section 1. Price Data - From July 22 to July 28, 2025, WTI increased by $1.55 to $66.71, BRENT increased by $1.60 to $70.04, and DUBAI increased by $0.23 to $70.59. Other related products also showed various price changes, such as SC decreasing by 7.00 to 505.90, and Japanese naphtha - BRT decreasing by 13.76 [3] 2. Daily News - Trump warned Iran not to restart nuclear facilities, threatening new strikes if they do. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and will not abandon uranium - enrichment activities [3] - OPEC+ is considering another production increase and urging members to comply with quotas. Some countries are instructed to make additional cuts. They will hold a meeting on August 3 to discuss September's production levels, with a planned increase of 548,000 barrels per day [3] - India's crude oil imports in June dropped 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest since February. Refinery throughput also decreased 4.2% month - on - month. The decline may be due to the monsoon season, and the trend may continue in July, but year - on - year imports are expected to rise [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 18, US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 419 million barrels (a 0.75% decline), and the strategic petroleum reserve decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels (a 0.05% decline) [5] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, while that of Shandong local refineries increased by 1.17%. China's refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with inventory changes of an increase in gasoline and a decrease in diesel. Both major refineries and local refineries saw a decline in comprehensive profits [6] 4. Weekly Viewpoints - The market is focused on US trade negotiations. Global oil inventories are slightly decreasing, and refining margins are high year - on - year. Domestic refinery operations are volatile, and refinery margins are weakening. The near - term supply and demand of crude oil are supported by peak - season factors, but these factors are largely realized, and the monthly spreads are declining. The absolute prices face downward pressure in the medium term [7]

欧股从此前触及的四个月高位回落小幅收低，投资者正在评估欧美贸易协议的影响，德国DAX指数当前多空情绪较为均衡。欧 佩克+联合部长级监督委员会再次敦促成员国遵守石油产量配额，本周末八个成员国将单独召开会议，后市情绪如何？欢迎前 往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每10分钟更新1次）。 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 电话.1 T 70 7770 香港恒生指数 69% 31% 标普500指数 64% 36% 纳斯达克指数 49% 51% 道琼斯指数 24% 76% 日经225指数 37% 63% 德国DAX40指 52% 48% 数 外汇 T 多头 空头 欧元/美元 54% 46% 欧元/英镑 34% 66% 欧元/日元 21% 79% 欧元/澳元 16% 84% 英镑/美元 70% 30% 英镑/日元 70% 30% 美元/日元 19% 81% 美元/加元 49% 51% 美元/瑞郎 89% 11% 澳元/美元 70% 30% 澳元/日元 39% 61% 加元/日元 39% 61% 纽元/美元 79% 21% 纽元/日元 57% 43% 美元/离岸人 4 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain the current oil production quota plan for the group [1] - A separate meeting is scheduled for May 31 to discuss potential oil production increases for July [1] - The next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting is planned for November 30 [1]

OPEC+周三将举行线上会议，审查今年及明年的产量配额，随后八个关键成员国将在周末决定是否于七月再次增产。 多名代表表示，预计该联盟将维持2025年和2026年的长期目标不变——这些目标是当前供应限制的基础。代表们称， 关于是否继续每日增产41.1万桶的讨论将在周六的视频会议上敲定（因谈判涉密，代表要求匿名）。过去两个月，此 类增产已导致油价暴跌。 会议程序凸显权力转移 会议安排凸显出，过去两年间，由22国组成的OPEC+联盟的整体石油配额重要性已下降，实际供应调整由沙特和俄罗 斯领导的八个主要产油国主导。 正是这些国家在4月3日打破了市场预期，当时他们宣布首次超大规模增产，规模达原计划的三倍。这一震惊市场的举 措在美国总统特朗普发起全球贸易战数小时后公布，导致原油期货在随后几天跌至每桶60美元以下的四年低点，标志 着该联盟多年支撑油价的努力破裂。 此后，随着特朗普取消部分关税，布伦特原油期货稳定在65美元附近。 OPEC+超预期增产压低了油价 政策转向的多重解释 OPEC+代表对政策逆转提出了一系列解释：包括满足夏季燃料需求、惩罚超产成员国、安抚特朗普，以及夺回失去的 市场份额。理论上，周三的会议可能为沙特 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kazakhstan's energy ministry announced no plans for oil production cuts in May, maintaining tensions within OPEC+ due to continued breaches of production limits [1] Group 1: Production and Compliance - Kazakhstan's average daily production of crude oil and condensate in May is set at 277,000 tons, unchanged from April, while March's production was 260,000 tons [1] - The OPEC+ agreement stipulates that Kazakhstan's crude oil production should be slightly below 1.4 million barrels per day for May, with planned production (including condensate) estimated at approximately 2 million barrels per day [1] - Kazakhstan typically produces around 260,000 barrels per day of condensate, a type of light oil [1] Group 2: Relations with OPEC+ - OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia, have recently agreed to significantly increase oil production, surprising traders and causing a drop in oil prices [1] - Saudi Arabia has warned that it will further increase oil production if quota violators do not comply with regulations [1] - Kazakhstan asserts limited influence over production decisions for domestic projects operated by foreign companies, as highlighted by Chevron's CEO stating no government directives to limit production at the Tengiz oil project [2]