以下文章来源于肖小跑 ，作者肖小跑 肖小跑 . 金融世界不讲道理的时候，向文史哲求救，大概率"叮"的一下就扣上了。因为在这里，您才能再次看 到"人"：人的情绪，人的荒诞，人的大举动小动作。这里有世界最本质的规律。 本文来自微信公众号： 肖小跑 ，作者：肖小跑 最近在写关于能源和电力的报告，恶补了很多东西。 看来要补的课确实很多，越补越觉得这是一个很反常识的领域，充满了反直觉的悖论。没想到在能源 行业，这个充满着自然规律的物理世界，人性也会起到作用？ 这也是为什么经济学不会消失，它永远在潜移默化中起作用。Long Live Economics。 下面是我的几个反直觉笔记： 01 一个被喊了一百多年的"狼来了"故事：为什么旧能源看不到尽头？ "Peak oil"（石油峰值）这个词，大家可能都听过。意思是石油需求或产量会在某一年达到顶峰，然 后开始走下坡路。 问题是，这个"顶峰"已经被预测了无数次，每次都往后推。 那么问题来了：如果新能源是未来，为什么化石燃料的生命周期却一直在延长？ 因为人性和博弈。或者更具体一点：PTSD。 早在1880年代，就有美国专家预言宾夕法尼亚油田枯竭后，美国石油工业就完了。1956年， ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil demand could rise to 113 million barrels per day by 2050, a 13% increase from 2024 levels, indicating a significant shift in outlook regarding fossil fuel demand [2] - The IEA's previous forecast suggested a peak in fossil fuel demand before the end of the decade, with a call for no new investments in coal, oil, and gas to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 [2] Group 1 - The concept of peak oil refers to the highest point of global crude production before a decline, which has been a contentious topic between the IEA and OPEC, with accusations of fearmongering from OPEC [3] - The IEA's latest forecast is based on the "Current Policies Scenario" (CPS), which assumes no new policies beyond those currently in place, marking a departure from earlier projections [3][4] - The CPS was reintroduced after being dropped during the pandemic, reflecting a need to reassess oil demand in light of post-pandemic recovery and energy market conditions [4] Group 2 - The anticipated increase in oil demand is driven by the need for petrochemical products and jet fuel, alongside a slowdown in the growth of electric vehicles [4]