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石油需求预期下调
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刷屏了!刚刚宣布,下调!
中国基金报· 2025-07-15 09:24
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a reduction in domestic fuel prices in China, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from July 15, 2025 [2]. Price Adjustment Summary - The price adjustments translate to a decrease of 0.10 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 0.11 yuan per liter for 95 gasoline, and 0.11 yuan per liter for 0 diesel. Filling a 50-liter tank with 92 gasoline will save approximately 5 yuan [5]. - For a small private car with a monthly distance of 2000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, the cost savings will be around 7 yuan before the next price adjustment window on July 29 [5]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers monthly with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers will see a reduction of about 195 yuan in fuel costs before the next adjustment [5]. - Year-to-date, there have been 14 rounds of price adjustments, resulting in a net decrease of 225 yuan per ton for gasoline and 215 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the beginning of the year [5]. International Oil Market Insights - The international oil market has experienced volatility, with overall trends showing a potential rebound. The U.S. Independence Day holiday saw record numbers of travelers, raising optimistic expectations for energy demand during peak seasons [7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Red Sea region due to attacks by Houthi forces, have increased uncertainty in energy supply, providing some support for oil prices [7]. - OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026, which may impact oil price trends [7]. - Goldman Sachs has indicated that rising recession risks and increased OPEC+ oil supply may lead to declining oil prices by the end of this year and into next year, with projected Brent crude prices around $59 per barrel in Q4 of this year and $56 per barrel in 2026 [8].