用油成本方面，对于私家车来说，以月跑 2000 公里、百公里平均油耗 8L 的燃油汽车为 例，下次调价窗口开启前（ 2025 年 9 月 9 日 24 时），单辆车的燃油成本将下降 10 元左 【导读】国内成品油价格按机制调整，汽、柴油每吨分别降低 180 元、 175 元 中国基金报记者 晨曦 8 月 26 日，国家发展改革委发布消息称，根据 8 月 26 日的前 10 个工作日平均价格与上 次调价前 10 个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，本次国内汽、柴油 价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低 180 元、 175 元。价格执行时间为 2025 年 8 月 26 日 24 时。 折合升价后， 92# 汽油、 95# 汽油及 0# 柴油分别下调 0.14 元 / 升、 0.15 元 / 升、 0.15 元 / 升。如按油箱容量为 50 升计算，加满一箱 92# 汽油将少花 7 元。开油车的车主 朋友们，可以等过了今晚再去加油。 连续搁浅两轮之后，油价终于迎来下调！ 右。对于物流行业来说，以月跑 10000 公里、百公里油耗在 38L 的重型卡车为例，在下次 调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a weak and volatile pattern. Supply - side factors indicate that the incident at Russian refineries is only a short - term disturbance, while South American production increases and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries strengthen the expectation of a loose supply. Demand - side factors are suppressed by the weakening of China's refining demand, the peak of global seasonal demand, and the slowdown of bio - fuel substitution. Without unexpected production cuts, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the SC main contract slightly declined by 0.08% to 489.4 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent rebounded by 1.03% and 0.59% respectively. The premium of domestic futures relative to foreign markets narrowed, with the SC - Brent spread narrowing from 1.87 to 1.43 dollars/barrel (a 23.53% decline) and the SC - WTI spread dropping from 4.84 to 4.14 dollars/barrel (a 14.46% decline). The SC near - month contract strengthened, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened to 9.8 yuan/barrel (a 13.95% increase) [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may lead to a local supply contraction, but strong South American production and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries (such as Iran and Venezuela) weaken the geopolitical premium, and medium - term supply pressure still exists [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: In early August, China's spot orders for gasoline and diesel decreased by 22.87% month - on - month, and transaction prices declined. UBS expects global oil demand to peak in August and then decline, and the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy reduces the elasticity of diesel substitution demand in the next half - year [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: UBS warns that future inventories may increase, and combined with the recent oil price correction and the spot discount structure, it shows that the market's expectation of inventory accumulation is taking shape. The decline in China's refinery procurement intention further intensifies inventory pressure [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: The current crude oil market is in a weak and volatile pattern. Without unexpected production cuts by OPEC+ to hedge, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, SC futures price slightly decreased, WTI and Brent futures prices increased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Some spreads narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while the Cushing inventory increased. The U.S. refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products changed. Some spreads widened, and some Platts prices decreased [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: UBS expects oil prices to fall below previous expectations due to strong South American oil production, the supply resilience of sanctioned countries, and the expectation of future inventory increases. UBS also expects OPEC+ to suspend its production adjustment unless there is a larger and continuous unexpected supply disruption [10]. - **Demand**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may affect supply. Global oil demand is expected to peak in August and then decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is delayed, and China's gasoline and diesel orders decreased in early August, indicating weakening demand [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the crude oil and fuel oil industries, including price, production, inventory, and operating rate data, with data sources such as WIND, EIA, and iFinD [12][14][16]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has won a bid for vehicle refueling services for the Tongtai Police Station in Dehui City, as announced on July 24 [1] - The procurement is organized by the Dehui City Public Security Bureau and involves government centralized procurement through an online service market [1] - The total budget for the vehicle refueling services includes multiple entries, with CNPC providing 100 liters of 95 gasoline and 4,798 liters of 92 gasoline, while Sinopec also participated in the bidding for other quantities [1][2] Group 2 - The service requirements stipulate that the supplied fuel must meet national technical standards, and the service must be available 24 hours a day to ensure timely refueling [2] - The contact person for the procurement is Zhang Shuai from the Tongtai Police Station, located in Dehui City, Jilin Province [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a reduction in domestic fuel prices in China, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from July 15, 2025 [2]. Price Adjustment Summary - The price adjustments translate to a decrease of 0.10 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 0.11 yuan per liter for 95 gasoline, and 0.11 yuan per liter for 0 diesel. Filling a 50-liter tank with 92 gasoline will save approximately 5 yuan [5]. - For a small private car with a monthly distance of 2000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, the cost savings will be around 7 yuan before the next price adjustment window on July 29 [5]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers monthly with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers will see a reduction of about 195 yuan in fuel costs before the next adjustment [5]. - Year-to-date, there have been 14 rounds of price adjustments, resulting in a net decrease of 225 yuan per ton for gasoline and 215 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the beginning of the year [5]. International Oil Market Insights - The international oil market has experienced volatility, with overall trends showing a potential rebound. The U.S. Independence Day holiday saw record numbers of travelers, raising optimistic expectations for energy demand during peak seasons [7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Red Sea region due to attacks by Houthi forces, have increased uncertainty in energy supply, providing some support for oil prices [7]. - OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026, which may impact oil price trends [7]. - Goldman Sachs has indicated that rising recession risks and increased OPEC+ oil supply may lead to declining oil prices by the end of this year and into next year, with projected Brent crude prices around $59 per barrel in Q4 of this year and $56 per barrel in 2026 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open tonight at 24:00, with expectations of a price decrease due to fluctuations in international oil prices, marking the sixth reduction this year [1] Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - According to Zhaochuang Information, during the current pricing cycle (from July 1, 24:00 to July 15, 24:00), despite strong support for international oil prices due to summer demand in the U.S., concerns about oversupply have resurfaced following the easing of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts and an unexpected production increase agreement by OPEC+ [3] - It is predicted that on July 15 at 24:00, the retail price limits for gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 130 and 125 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to a decrease of 0.10, 0.11, and 0.11 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [3] - The cost savings for consumers will be noticeable; for instance, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will save approximately 5 yuan, and for a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 km and fuel consumption of 8L per 100 km, the fuel cost will decrease by about 7 yuan before the next price adjustment window on July 29 [3] Group 2: Future Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the international crude oil market remains supported by sustained demand in the U.S., with a significant support level at around 65 USD for WTI [4] - The recalculated crude oil change rate is currently at a low positive level, indicating that the potential price increase for the next adjustment is limited to only 10 yuan per ton, leading to considerable uncertainty regarding the next price adjustment window on July 29 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustment in retail fuel prices in China, driven by fluctuations in international oil prices, with a notable increase in gasoline and diesel prices effective from July 1, 2025 [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - The retail price of 92 gasoline and 0 diesel will increase by 0.18 yuan and 0.19 yuan per liter, respectively, following a rise of 235 yuan/ton for gasoline and 225 yuan/ton for diesel [1]. - This marks the first "three consecutive increases" in retail fuel prices this year, with cumulative increases of 560 yuan/ton for gasoline and 540 yuan/ton for diesel since June 4 [2]. - The overall trend for fuel price adjustments this year has been characterized by "six increases, five decreases, and two stasis," resulting in a slight decrease in fuel costs compared to the beginning of the year [2]. Consumer Impact - For a typical household car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92 gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan [1]. - For a small private car running 2000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 8L/100km, the fuel cost will increase by approximately 13 yuan before the next price adjustment [2]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L/100km will see an increase in fuel costs of around 337 yuan [2]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a significant likelihood of price reductions in the upcoming pricing cycle due to insufficient rebound in international oil prices [2]. - The next price adjustment window is set for July 15, 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in retail fuel prices effective July 1, 2025, due to fluctuations in international oil prices, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 235 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively, translating to increases of 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1] Group 1 - The international oil market has experienced significant volatility, with a sharp increase in oil prices followed by a rapid decline, resulting in a cumulative drop of over 14% in two days [1] - The recent price adjustment marks the first "three consecutive increases" of the year, with cumulative increases of 560 yuan/ton for gasoline and 540 yuan/ton for diesel since June 4 [2] - The overall trend for fuel price adjustments this year has been characterized by "six increases, five decreases, and two stasis," leading to a slight decrease in fuel costs compared to the beginning of the year [2] Group 2 - The next price adjustment window is set for July 15, 2025, at 24:00 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that domestic refined oil prices are set to increase for the third time, effective from July 1 at 24:00, due to fluctuations in international oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][3] - According to Zhaochuang Information, the reference crude oil change rate is currently at 5.41%, leading to an expected increase in retail prices of gasoline and diesel by 235 and 225 yuan per ton respectively, which translates to an increase of 0.18, 0.19, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1][3] - The increase in fuel costs for consumers is illustrated with examples: filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan, while a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 km will see an increase of approximately 13 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment window on July 15 [3] Group 2 - The logistics industry will experience a significant impact, with a heavy-duty truck running 10,000 km per month and consuming 38L per 100 km facing an increase of around 337 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [3] - Despite the recent easing of geopolitical tensions leading to a drop in international oil prices, the upcoming summer demand peak in the U.S. is expected to provide support for oil prices, indicating a potential for continued volatility in the market [3] - The new pricing cycle may present a downward adjustment expectation for domestic refined oil prices, with the next adjustment window scheduled for July 15 at 24:00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices in China are expected to rise on July 1, with an estimated increase of 260 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, marking the first "three consecutive increases" of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Price Changes - As of June 27, the reference crude oil change rate was 6.00%, leading to an expected increase of 0.2 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.22 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.22 yuan for 0 diesel [1][3]. - Filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 11 yuan after the price adjustment [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The international oil price showed a trend of rising and then falling during the current pricing cycle, with the domestic reference crude oil change rate decreasing from a high positive value [3]. - Despite a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories and increased demand, the overall trend of the crude oil change rate remains downward, indicating that the conditions for a price increase are still met [3]. Group 3: Profit Margins - As of June 27, the theoretical profit for 92 gasoline was 1,290 yuan per ton for major suppliers and 1,638 yuan per ton for local refineries, reflecting increases of 179 and 291 yuan per ton respectively since June 17 [4]. - The theoretical profit for 0 diesel was 760 yuan per ton for major suppliers and 1,763 yuan per ton for local refineries, with increases of 183 and 84 yuan per ton respectively since June 17 [4]. Group 4: Historical Context - In 2023, there have been 12 rounds of price adjustments for domestic oil, resulting in five increases, five decreases, and two pauses [4]. - After the upcoming price adjustment, the pricing pattern for 2023 will shift to six increases, five decreases, and two pauses [4].

Core Insights - The recent adjustment in domestic refined oil prices is due to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, with gasoline and diesel retail prices rising by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton respectively, effective from June 17 [1][2] - Factors contributing to the rise in international oil prices include improved macro risk appetite from US-China trade negotiations, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and a decrease in US crude oil inventories [1] Price Impact on Consumers - For consumers, the cost of driving will increase, with an additional 10 yuan required to fill a 50L tank of 92 gasoline [2] - For a small private car with a monthly distance of 2000 km and fuel consumption of 8L per 100 km, the fuel cost will rise by approximately 15 yuan before the next price adjustment [2] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 km monthly with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 km will see an increase in fuel costs of around 390 yuan [2] Future Price Expectations - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to keep oil prices strong in the short term, but there are concerns about potential price declines if the situation stabilizes [2] - The new pricing cycle is anticipated to start with a high positive change rate, indicating expectations for further increases in domestic refined oil retail prices, with the next adjustment window set for July 1 [2]