Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with polysilicon showing a weak and volatile trend. For industrial silicon, the supply remains relatively stable, demand is stable within a certain range, and high inventories are difficult to reduce, so the market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand structure is weak, inventories are accumulating slightly and remaining at a high level, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract rebounded from a low - level oscillation, closing at 8625 yuan/ton on March 27 [2][8] - **Supply**: Northwest China has stable production, the expectation of electricity price increase for large factories in Xinjiang has completely subsided. Yunnan and Sichuan are restricted by high electricity prices during the dry season, with low start - up rates and weak willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate remains stable. Due to the self - discipline of silicon enterprises, the market has rebounded to some extent [2] - **Demand**: The weekly start - up rate of polysilicon enterprises is basically stable, with a limited increase in production in April and limited incremental demand for industrial silicon. The weekly start - up rate of organic silicon has declined slightly, and some monomer plants are under maintenance, with cautious procurement of industrial silicon. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and terminal consumption has limited improvement. In February, industrial silicon exports were 47,500 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous month and a 7% increase year - on - year [2] - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon has increased slightly this week [2] - **Inventory**: As of March 26, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 560,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week [2] - **Price Difference**: As of March 27, 2026, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [12] - **Output**: As of March 27, 2026, the number of open furnaces for national industrial silicon was 209, unchanged from last week; the start - up rate was 25.93%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly output was 78,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous week [19] Polysilicon - **Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of N - type dense material was 41,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton from last week; the futures main contract continued to decline, closing at 35,680 yuan/ton on March 27 [3][15] - **Supply**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and both upstream and downstream enterprises are relatively pessimistic about the future market. Polysilicon production may increase to some extent in April, but the overall increase is limited [3] - **Demand**: The recovery of terminal installation demand is slow. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish stocks for刚需. Some silicon material enterprises are forced to accept low - price orders due to inventory and capital pressure. Silicon wafer prices continue to decline, and procurement demand is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude. In February, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,622.13 tons, a 55% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 2,214.66 tons, a 21% increase from the previous month [5] - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon has remained stable this week [5] - **Inventory**: As of March 27, 2026, the polysilicon factory inventory was 333,200 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from last week [4][23] Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of March 27, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.015, 1.015, 1.115 and 1.315 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week. The silicon wafer market continued to operate weakly, with the actual transaction center moving down slightly and lacking effective support [27] - **Battery Cells**: As of March 27, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.39, 0.39, 0.39 and 0.39 yuan/watt respectively, a decrease of 0.02, 0.02, 0.02 and 0.015 yuan/watt from last week. The transaction price of the battery cell market continued to decline. Although leading enterprises still maintained prices, second - and third - tier enterprises sold at reduced prices, and low - price supplies affected the overall price [31] - **Components**: As of March 27, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.79, 0.805, 0.79 and 0.805 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The component market was generally stable, with few transactions, and there was an expectation of price reduction in the future [34] - **Organic Silicon**: As of March 27, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up rate of organic silicon enterprises decreased slightly, and procurement became more cautious [37] - **Aluminum Alloys**: As of March 27, 2026, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises was supported, but the incremental pull was limited [41]