本文通过对我国氯碱化工主要产品烧碱和PVC进行统计学测算，预测了2026－2028年不同市场情景下的 供需关系，核心结论为：在乐观情景下，烧碱将出现大规模供不应求，而PVC的供需缺口相对较小；在 悲观情景下，烧碱仅小幅供过于求，PVC则将持续面临显著的供应过剩。预测结果表明，在PVC产能过 剩概率较高的背景下，我国氯碱化工行业亟需破解"碱氯平衡"结构性难题，加速推进"产能重塑"战略。 ...

我国氯碱化工行业"产能重塑" 的必要性研究 联合资信 工商四部 |张垌 蒋旭 本文通过对我国氯碱化工主要产品烧碱和PVC进行统计学测算，预测了2026－ 2028年不同市场情景下的供需关系，核心结论为：在乐观情景下，烧碱将出现 大规模供不应求，而PVC的供需缺口相对较小；在悲观情景下，烧碱仅小幅供 过于求，PVC则将持续面临显著的供应过剩。预测结果表明，在PVC产能过剩 概率较高的背景下，我国氯碱化工行业亟需破解"碱氯平衡"结构性难题，加速 推进"产能重塑"战略。 1 一、 氯碱化工"产能重塑"的行业背景 氯碱化工行业最核心的两个产品为烧碱（氢氧化钠）和PVC（聚氯乙烯），工业上 用电解饱和氯化钠溶液的方法来制取烧碱、氯气和氢气，并以它们为原材料进一步生产 PVC等一系列化工产品，简称为氯碱化工行业。 （一）过去十年氯碱化工行业周期变化 经过多年发展，我国已经成为烧碱和 PVC 的全球第一大生产国，产能分别约占全 球总量的 40%和 45%。2014 年以来，我国烧碱和 PVC 产量均呈现上升态势。 图表 1 烧碱及聚氯乙烯（PVC）产量情况 数据来源：Wind，联合资信整理 回顾过去十年，氯碱化工行业在"供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The methane chlorides industry in China is experiencing significant growth in production capacity and output, with a projected total capacity of 3.84 million tons per annum by 2024, accounting for 48% of global capacity. The industry is expected to face increasing supply pressures, leading to potential market reshuffling and heightened competition among companies [1][5][6]. Industry Overview - Methane chlorides are products formed by substituting hydrogen atoms in methane with chlorine atoms, including methyl chloride, dichloromethane, trichloromethane, and carbon tetrachloride. They are widely used in refrigerants, solvents, coatings, film, acetate fibers, carbonates, and extraction agents [2][4]. Production Capacity - By 2024, there will be 16 methane chloride production enterprises in China, with a total capacity of 3.84 million tons per annum, representing 48% of global capacity. The production capacity is highly concentrated in East and North China, which together contribute 87.5% of the national capacity [5][6]. Production Volume - China's methane chloride production is expected to reach 3.07 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The capacity utilization rate is projected to be 79.9%, up by 4.4 percentage points from the previous year [6][7]. Market Demand - The consumption of methane chlorides is primarily driven by dichloromethane and trichloromethane. In 2024, the total consumption of dichloromethane is estimated at 1.337 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.5%, while trichloromethane consumption is expected to reach 1.349 million tons, an increase of 9.6% [8][10]. Competitive Landscape - The domestic market for methane chlorides is competitive, with over ten companies operating. Companies like Jinyi Technology and Yonghe Co. are actively optimizing their business layouts to enhance market competitiveness. Jinyi Technology has an annual production capacity of 370,000 tons, accounting for 9.6% of national capacity, while Yonghe Co. has a capacity of 197,000 tons, representing 5.1% [12][13]. Industry Development Trends - The methane chlorides industry is expected to face increasing supply pressures, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and potential market reshuffling. The trend of vertical integration in the industry is becoming more pronounced, with companies looking to extend their supply chains into downstream products such as refrigerants and high-performance fluoropolymers [13][14].