电石、氯碱行业交流 20260107 摘要 陕西省出台差别电价政策，旨在通过对限制类和淘汰类企业加征电费， 倒逼产业结构调整和技术升级，但因其产能占全国比例较低（约 10%） 且开工率不高，预计对全国市场影响有限，除非对自备电厂企业加价。 "限制类"企业指工艺技术落后、不符合行业准入标准、不利于安全生产 或"双碳"目标的企业；"淘汰类"企业指阻碍碳达峰和碳中和目标的 落后工艺、技术、设备或产品。这些分类标准随行业发展不断优化，反 映了国家对高耗能产业环保和技术门槛的提升。 内蒙古已执行 3 万千伏安以下电石炉淘汰政策，现有电石炉多为中大型， 能耗和污染影响较小。未来的电力政策重点在于长协和市场交易电价， 自备电厂预计受影响较小，将继续按自身发电成本和少量过网费运行。 在反内卷背景下，PVC 行业因 20 年以上老旧产能相对较少，且经过技 术改造，未面临直接淘汰风险，更可能通过成本端优化供应，如高成本 区域因亏损退出。烧碱行业盈利较好，优胜劣汰影响小。 电石行业每年约有百万吨长期停车产能自发淘汰，对市场影响不大；烧 碱行业每年仅零星退出约 10 万吨产能，影响甚微；PVC 行业虽有 110 万吨产能退出，但新增 ...

8 服 热 E 户网 站 100 - 100 la pa www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts No 180 14/1 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31号 | | ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 蜈致据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F305427 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | 2025/12/30 | | 指标 | | 2025/12/26 | 2026/12/29 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 晋城无烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | FV AN | 川渝液化气 | 3590.00 | 3590. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 国际大然气 | 10. 34 | 10.34 | 0. 00 | | | | 太仓 | 2120.00 | 2140.00 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The methanol price will fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly yesterday. In the northwest main production area, enterprise inventories were at a low level. Downstream and traders had a stronger willingness to replenish at low prices, leading to higher auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up the spot price. However, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after the previous low - price replenishment. The market trend depends on the downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday [1] Supply - Domestic methanol production was 292,325.00, an increase of 300.00; domestic operating rate was 90.10%, an increase of 0.09%; international operating rate remained unchanged at 62.43% [1] Inventory - Arrival volume, enterprise inventory, and port inventory remained unchanged at 37.60, 361,320.00, and 1,349,430.00 respectively [1] Demand - Order backlog remained unchanged at 239,715.00 [1] Cost - The costs of some coal - based methanol production decreased, such as the cost of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol decreased by 10.50 to 2,091.50, and the cost of Shandong coal - based methanol decreased by 10.50 to 2,341.50 [1] Operating Rate - The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chlorides, MTBE, etc. remained unchanged [1] Associated Product Prices - The prices of some associated products changed slightly, such as the price of methane chloride increased by 20.00 to 1,760.00, and the price of MTBE increased by 10.00 to 4,930.00 [1]

转机出现在2021年。 随着黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略的深入推进，东营经济技术开发区系统谋划区域水治理工作， 推动企业技术改造。当年5月，金岭公司正式启动污水处理零排放项目。 "从政策讲解到组织赴外地学习，从手续代办到专家对接，当地政府为我们提供了全程护航。"作为亲历 者，李康清晰记得项目推进的每个节点。 "像金岭公司这样的传统企业，在探索转型发展的道路上，我们要全力做好服务。"东营市广利临港产业 园有限公司董事长赵磊说，园区实行全方位、全领域、全链条帮办代办，助力企业不断向智能化、绿色 化、融合化方向发展。 "氯化钠结晶纯度——98.58%！" 清晨7时，在山东金岭新材料有限公司中控室内，技术员李康看到电子屏"98.58%"这个数据，脸上露出 欣慰的笑容。这是经过上百次调试的关键指标，近年来数值不仅稳定在高位，今天又刷新投产以来的最 优纪录。 "一天2万吨废水，经处理后，九成变为清澈的净水回用车间，其余的则浓缩提纯为工业盐。新数据意味 着能给企业降低更多的生产成本。"李康算了一笔账，经过污水循环利用，一年下来可提取2.2万吨工业 盐，仅此一项，每年可增收近千万元。 谁能想到，4年前，这里还是另一番景象 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Co., Ltd. (600308) has established a synergistic industrial chain layout in salt chemical and fine chemical sectors through its wholly-owned subsidiary Dongying Huatai Chemical Group, focusing on the production and operation of mature products within its existing industrial chain [1] Group 1 - The core products of the company include caustic soda, liquid chlorine, hydrogen peroxide, propylene oxide, chloroacetic acid, methane chlorides, and aniline [1] - The company is currently not involved in the production of fluorochemical products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Co., Ltd. (600308.SH) has established an industrial chain layout focusing on the synergistic development of salt chemical and fine chemical industries, with a range of core products [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, Dongying Huatai Chemical Group, has developed a product line that includes caustic soda, liquid chlorine, hydrogen peroxide, propylene oxide, chloroacetic acid, methyl chlorides, and aniline [1] - The company is currently focused on the production and operation of mature products within its existing industrial chain and does not involve fluorochemical products [1]

综述：震荡承压 国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 02 资料来源：钢联，国泰君安期货研究 基差，月差，仓单 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 CZCE：甲醇：基差（日） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 400 500 600 元/吨 1-5月差 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weakening oscillatory trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On December 1, 2025, the prices of most energy - chemical products remained stable, with only a few showing minor changes. For example, the price of Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas decreased by 10 yuan to 4120 yuan, and the international natural gas price dropped by 0.09 to 10.32. The price of methanol in Shandong increased by 10 yuan to 2180 yuan, and the price of MTBE rose by 20 yuan to 4910 yuan [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased by 460 to 290915, and the domestic operating rate rose by 0.14 to 89.66%. The international operating rate remained unchanged at 63.22%, and the arrival volume at the port was stable at 22.54 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise and port inventories of methanol remained unchanged, at 373712 and 1363500 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog of methanol remained stable at 230710. The operating rates of most downstream products remained unchanged, with only the operating rate of some coal - based methanol production processes showing a decline. For example, the operating rate of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol decreased by 21 to 2207, and that of Shandong coal - based methanol decreased by 21 to 2457 [1]. Associated Product Prices - Most associated product prices remained stable, with only the price of MTBE increasing by 20 yuan to 4910 yuan [1].

Core Viewpoint - The methane chlorides industry in China is experiencing significant growth in production capacity and output, with a projected total capacity of 3.84 million tons per annum by 2024, accounting for 48% of global capacity. The industry is expected to face increasing supply pressures, leading to potential market reshuffling and heightened competition among companies [1][5][6]. Industry Overview - Methane chlorides are products formed by substituting hydrogen atoms in methane with chlorine atoms, including methyl chloride, dichloromethane, trichloromethane, and carbon tetrachloride. They are widely used in refrigerants, solvents, coatings, film, acetate fibers, carbonates, and extraction agents [2][4]. Production Capacity - By 2024, there will be 16 methane chloride production enterprises in China, with a total capacity of 3.84 million tons per annum, representing 48% of global capacity. The production capacity is highly concentrated in East and North China, which together contribute 87.5% of the national capacity [5][6]. Production Volume - China's methane chloride production is expected to reach 3.07 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The capacity utilization rate is projected to be 79.9%, up by 4.4 percentage points from the previous year [6][7]. Market Demand - The consumption of methane chlorides is primarily driven by dichloromethane and trichloromethane. In 2024, the total consumption of dichloromethane is estimated at 1.337 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.5%, while trichloromethane consumption is expected to reach 1.349 million tons, an increase of 9.6% [8][10]. Competitive Landscape - The domestic market for methane chlorides is competitive, with over ten companies operating. Companies like Jinyi Technology and Yonghe Co. are actively optimizing their business layouts to enhance market competitiveness. Jinyi Technology has an annual production capacity of 370,000 tons, accounting for 9.6% of national capacity, while Yonghe Co. has a capacity of 197,000 tons, representing 5.1% [12][13]. Industry Development Trends - The methane chlorides industry is expected to face increasing supply pressures, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and potential market reshuffling. The trend of vertical integration in the industry is becoming more pronounced, with companies looking to extend their supply chains into downstream products such as refrigerants and high-performance fluoropolymers [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lu Xi Chemical (000830.SZ), clarified that its main products do not include lithium iron phosphate, focusing instead on a diverse range of chemical products [1] Product Overview - The company's primary products include: - Polyols - Caprolactam - Nylon 6 - Organosilicon - Formic acid - Methyl chloride - Methylamine - DMF (Dimethylformamide) - Polycarbonate [1]