8 服 热 导发 E 户网 站 100 - 100 la pa www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts No 180 14/1 | 设资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | ITC国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 醒教据 日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F3054270 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/09 | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/30 | 行情评述 | 指标 | 涨跌值 | 2025/09/29 | 晋城无烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | NY ZIF | 川渝液化气 | 3760.00 | 3760. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 国际天然气 | 11. 09 | 10.9 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and volatile [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On September 15 - 16, 2025, prices of most energy and chemical products remained stable. For example, the price of Jincheng anthracite was 900 yuan, Inner Mongolia steam coal was 630 yuan, and Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas was 3810 yuan. International natural gas decreased from 11.02 to 10.97, and Taicang methanol decreased from 2285 to 2280 yuan. Inner Mongolia methanol increased from 2120 to 2140 yuan [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production decreased from 266,895 to 265,295, domestic operating rate decreased from 82.33 to 81.84, and international operating rate decreased from 72.02 to 69.72 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory of methanol remained unchanged at 347,083 and 1,427,655 respectively [1]. Demand - Order backlog of methanol remained unchanged at 241,285. The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, and MTBE all remained unchanged [1]. Associated Product Prices - Among associated products, the price of acetic acid increased from 2370 to 2390 yuan, while the prices of formaldehyde (Shandong), dimethyl ether, methane chloride, and MTBE remained unchanged [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weak - fluctuating trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly. For example, the price in Inner Mongolia rose from 2030.00 to 2070.00, and in Shandong from 2260.00 to 2280.00. The price of Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas increased by 16.00 to 4080.00, while the price of international natural gas decreased by 0.19 to 10.68. Some associated product prices also changed, such as acetic acid increasing by 20.00 to 2290.00 and MTBE decreasing by 10.00 to 5040.00 [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased from 279825.00 to 280425.00, and the domestic operating rate rose from 86.32 to 86.51. The international operating rate remained unchanged at 74.52 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 333393.00 and 1299250.00 respectively [1]. Demand - Orders to be delivered remained unchanged at 216985.00. The formaldehyde market showed mixed trends. With raw material methanol slightly adjusting back, cost - side support strengthened. However, as the downstream entered the off - season, formaldehyde producers faced greater shipment pressure and adjusted their shipment mechanisms according to inventory [1]. Operating Rate of Associated Products - The operating rates of most associated products remained unchanged, including dimethyl ether at 5.97, formaldehyde at 42.25, acetic acid at 85.24, methane chloride at 87.29, and MTBE at 63.54 [1].

Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Data Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern of methanol remains loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants and downstream inventory - building [22]. - In the long - term, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Spot and Futures and Downstream Price Trends - Futures: The price of MA2601 was 2,361 yuan/ton on August 29, 2025, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.83%) from August 22. The basis was - 136 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-23.64%) [4]. - Spot: The price of methanol in Taicang was 2,298.4 yuan/ton, down 61.2 yuan/ton (-2.59%); the CFR price of methanol was 262 US dollars/ton, up 0.6 US dollars/ton (0.23%) [4]. - Downstream: The price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.95%); the price of glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu was 2,223.75 yuan/ton, up 33.75 yuan/ton (1.54%); the price of dimethyl ether in Henan remained unchanged at 3,400 yuan/ton; the price of MTBE in Shandong was 4,983.75 yuan/ton, down 27.25 yuan/ton (-0.54%) [4]. 3.2 Methanol Cost and Profit - Due to the decline in coal prices, although methanol prices also dropped, the decline was limited, so the profitability of coal - based methanol production slightly improved. Meanwhile, the profits of coke oven gas - based and natural gas - based methanol production decreased month - on - month, and natural gas - based methanol continued to operate at a loss [9]. - As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the demand fulfillment is slightly weak. The profit of MTO continues to recover, and the demand support for methanol continues. The profits of traditional demand sectors show mixed trends, and current demand is mainly driven by rigid needs [9]. 3.3 Methanol Supply Side - As of August 28, the weekly plant capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, up 1.07 percentage points month - on - month. Methanol production was 1.9182 million tons, an increase of 24,200 tons (1.28%) from the previous week [14]. - This week, plants in Shaanxi Shenmu, Xin'ao Daqi, Inner Mongolia Yigao, etc. resumed production, with a total restored production capacity of about 2.6 million tons; plants in Xinxiang Zhongxin, Shanxi Linxin, Xiaoyi Pengfei, etc. were under maintenance, with a total lost production capacity of about 1.2 million tons [14]. - In early September, plants such as Ningxia Baofeng are planned to resume production, with a restored production capacity of about 2.2 million tons, and the next - period operating rate may continue to rise [13]. 3.4 Methanol Demand Side - The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins was 85.35%, up 0.76 percentage points; the operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.27%, down 0.27 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 85.24%, down 3.77 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.97%, down 1.05 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE remained unchanged at 63.54%; the operating rate of methane chloride was 87.17%, up 2.49 percentage points [17]. 3.5 Methanol Port and Inland Inventory - As of August 27, the total methanol port inventory was 1.2993 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons (20.7%) from the previous period. With stable overseas operating rates and stable imported supplies, coastal olefin plants have no restart plans, and port inventory may continue to accumulate [21]. - Inland inventory was 333,400 tons, an increase of 22,600 tons (7.27%) from the previous period, still at a low - inventory level. The marginal demand for external procurement of olefins in some inland areas has weakened. Attention should be paid to the continuous rhythm of port cargo "back - flowing" [21]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and methanol prices will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants and downstream inventory - building [22]. - Long - term: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [22]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings: The recovery of coastal olefin plants, methanol inventory accumulation pressure, and macro - market sentiment [22]

股票代码：600727 股票简称：鲁北化工 编号：2025-044 山东鲁北化工股份有限公司 2025年半年度主要经营数据公告 特别提示 本公司董事会及全体董事成员保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 主要产品 | 2025年半年度 平均售价（元/吨） | 2024年半年度 平均售价（元/吨） | 变动比率（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钛白粉 | 12,637.11 | 14,008.03 | -9.79 | | 甲烷氯化物 | 1,969.28 | 1,979.51 | -0.52 | | 化肥 | 2,844.78 | 2,630.80 | 8.13 | | 原盐 | 212.39 | 274.34 | -22.58 | | 水泥 | 259.49 | 237.84 | 9.11 | 1 主要产品 2025年半年度 产量（吨） 2025年半年度 销量（吨） 2025年半年度 销售金额（元） 钛白粉 136,785.60 126,123.80 1,593,840,221.40 甲烷氯化物 216 ...

Core Insights - The report analyzes the methane chlorides market in China, highlighting its significance as a major chemical raw material and organic solvent, second only to vinyl chloride among chlorine-based products [1][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - China is the world's second-largest economy, with a broad market demand for methane chlorides across various manufacturing sectors, including automotive, pharmaceuticals, plastics, coatings, pesticides, and synthetic rubber [3]. - Since 2018, the demand for methane chlorides in China has been steadily increasing, with the market size reaching 10.393 billion yuan in 2021, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.43% [3]. Group 2: Production and Industry Development - The exploration of the methane chlorides industry in China began in the 1950s, with the first production equipment for dichloromethane developed in 1965, followed by the production of trichloromethane and carbon tetrachloride [5]. - Benefiting from strong downstream demand, China's methane chlorides market has rapidly expanded, becoming one of the world's leading producers, with a production volume of 3.2793 million tons in 2022 [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol price in many domestic regions increased slightly yesterday. The inventory of enterprises in the main production areas in the northwest is at a low level, the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices has increased, and the transaction price of enterprise auctions has risen. The positive sentiment in the futures market has driven smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, and some enterprises have stopped selling and supported prices, pushing up the spot price. The downstream is mainly on the sidelines, and the procurement has become more rational after the previous low - price replenishment. The market trend needs to pay attention to the downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday. - In the short term, the methanol price will fluctuate within a range. In the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price - The prices of most energy and chemical products remained stable on August 19 - 20, 2025, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas increased by 10 yuan to 4140 yuan, the price of international natural gas decreased by 0.09 to 10.43, and the price of MTBE decreased by 20 yuan to 4980 yuan. The price of methanol in many domestic regions increased slightly, with the price in Taicang rising by 20 yuan to 2290 yuan, and the price in Shandong rising by 10 yuan to 2290 yuan. [1] Supply - Domestic methanol production decreased by 360 to 270205, and the domestic operating rate decreased by 0.11 to 83.65, while the international operating rate remained unchanged at 71.67. The arrival quantity of imports remained unchanged at 38.84. [1] Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged, at 295573 and 1021800 respectively. [1] Demand - The order backlog remained unchanged at 219365. The operating rates of various downstream products of methanol remained stable, such as the MTO operating rate at 83.12, the dimethyl ether operating rate at 7.15, and the formaldehyde operating rate at 41.54. [1] Associated Product Prices - The prices of most associated products remained stable, with only MTBE showing a decrease of 20 yuan to 4980 yuan. [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly. In the northwest main production area, enterprise inventories were low, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, leading to higher auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new order transactions in the afternoon, with some enterprises halting sales and raising prices, pushing up spot prices. However, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after previous low - price replenishment. The market trend depends on downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday [1]. - Specific price changes: prices of Sichuan - Chongqing LPG decreased by 135 to 4130, international natural gas decreased by 0.31 to 10.52, and prices in domestic regions such as Taicang, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong decreased by 20 [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production decreased by 600 to 271075, and the domestic start - up rate decreased by 0.19 to 83.92, while the international start - up rate remained unchanged at 71.67 [1]. - The arrival volume and enterprise inventory remained unchanged at 35.80 and 293688 respectively, and the port inventory remained unchanged at 925480 [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained unchanged at 240800 [1]. Downstream Start - up - The start - up rates of most downstream industries remained unchanged, such as the MTOH start - up rate at 83.89, the dimethyl ether start - up rate at 5.33, etc. [1]. Associated Product Prices - Dimethyl ether prices increased by 20 to 3320, acetic acid prices increased by 40 to 2200, while MTBE AP prices decreased by 30 to 5020 [1].

Group 1 - The core products of Dongying Huatai Chemical Group, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huatai Co., Ltd., include caustic soda, liquid chlorine, hydrogen peroxide, propylene oxide, chloroacetic acid, methyl chloride, and aniline [1] - The annual production capacity of caustic soda is 750,000 tons (converted to hundred thousand tons), while the annual production capacity of liquid chlorine is approximately 600,000 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The investment agreement between Urumqi Ganquanpu Economic and Technological Development Zone and Nantong Donggang Chemical Co., Ltd. signifies a significant commitment to developing a fluorine materials integrated project, with a total investment of approximately 70 billion yuan [1] Investment Details - Nantong Donggang Chemical will invest about 39.5 billion yuan in the first phase of the fluorine materials integrated project, covering an area of approximately 1,000 acres [1] - The project is scheduled to commence construction in October 2023 and is expected to be completed and put into production by April 2027 [1] Production Focus - The project will primarily produce high-value-added fluoropolymer monomers and high-end polymers using raw materials such as chloroform, 1,1,1,2-tetrachloroethane, and anhydrous hydrogen fluoride [1] - Additionally, it will include the construction of a green and environmentally friendly caustic soda facility with a capacity of 300,000 tons per year and a chloromethane facility with a capacity of 100,000 tons per year [1] - The project aims to utilize advanced technologies to produce key fluorine fine chemicals from raw materials like carbon tetrachloride and ethylene [1] Future Expansion Plans - In the second phase, Nantong Donggang Chemical plans to invest an additional 3 billion yuan or more, focusing on downstream high-value-added industries, including the development of high-end fluorine coatings and specialty fluorine cable materials [1]