本文通过对我国氯碱化工主要产品烧碱和PVC进行统计学测算，预测了2026－2028年不同市场情景下的 供需关系，核心结论为：在乐观情景下，烧碱将出现大规模供不应求，而PVC的供需缺口相对较小；在 悲观情景下，烧碱仅小幅供过于求，PVC则将持续面临显著的供应过剩。预测结果表明，在PVC产能过 剩概率较高的背景下，我国氯碱化工行业亟需破解"碱氯平衡"结构性难题，加速推进"产能重塑"战略。 ...

我国氯碱化工行业"产能重塑" 的必要性研究 联合资信 工商四部 |张垌 蒋旭 本文通过对我国氯碱化工主要产品烧碱和PVC进行统计学测算，预测了2026－ 2028年不同市场情景下的供需关系，核心结论为：在乐观情景下，烧碱将出现 大规模供不应求，而PVC的供需缺口相对较小；在悲观情景下，烧碱仅小幅供 过于求，PVC则将持续面临显著的供应过剩。预测结果表明，在PVC产能过剩 概率较高的背景下，我国氯碱化工行业亟需破解"碱氯平衡"结构性难题，加速 推进"产能重塑"战略。 1 一、 氯碱化工"产能重塑"的行业背景 氯碱化工行业最核心的两个产品为烧碱（氢氧化钠）和PVC（聚氯乙烯），工业上 用电解饱和氯化钠溶液的方法来制取烧碱、氯气和氢气，并以它们为原材料进一步生产 PVC等一系列化工产品，简称为氯碱化工行业。 （一）过去十年氯碱化工行业周期变化 经过多年发展，我国已经成为烧碱和 PVC 的全球第一大生产国，产能分别约占全 球总量的 40%和 45%。2014 年以来，我国烧碱和 PVC 产量均呈现上升态势。 图表 1 烧碱及聚氯乙烯（PVC）产量情况 数据来源：Wind，联合资信整理 回顾过去十年，氯碱化工行业在"供 ...

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP growth reached 5.3%, marking the best performance for the same period in nearly four years[21] - Export growth has shown a downward trend since March, with rates of 12.3%, 8.1%, and 4.7%, before a slight rebound to 5.9% in June[28] - The actual export scale remains stable around $300 billion, with a similar surplus situation[28] Policy Adjustments - The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies and strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments[17] - Fiscal financing progress is ahead of schedule but does not significantly deviate from recent trends[10] - Monetary policy has shifted from a "tight" stance in Q1 to a "neutral" stance, with interest rate cuts not exceeding conventional levels[10] External Trade Dynamics - The trade war has led to a permanent gap in export scale, with an estimated $190 billion/month deficit due to tariffs imposed in 2018-2019[66] - The U.S. inventory replenishment cycle is nearing its end, which may impact China's net export demand[73] Consumer Behavior - Consumption showed resilience, with sales driven by trade-in programs amounting to 2.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, although year-on-year growth was approximately -8.1%[79] - Short-term loans for residents have not turned positive, indicating ongoing consumer caution[85] Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment continues to decline, with high-tier cities' weekly transaction volumes dropping to levels below those of 2024[91] - The demographic trend suggests a potential long-term decline in housing demand post-2028[97] Overall Economic Outlook - The growth target of around 5% for the year appears manageable, with Q3 growth projected between 4.9% and 5.0%, and Q4 expected to drop to 4.6%-4.7%[101]