Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP growth reached 5.3%, marking the best performance for the same period in nearly four years[21] - Export growth has shown a downward trend since March, with rates of 12.3%, 8.1%, and 4.7%, before a slight rebound to 5.9% in June[28] - The actual export scale remains stable around $300 billion, with a similar surplus situation[28] Policy Adjustments - The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies and strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments[17] - Fiscal financing progress is ahead of schedule but does not significantly deviate from recent trends[10] - Monetary policy has shifted from a "tight" stance in Q1 to a "neutral" stance, with interest rate cuts not exceeding conventional levels[10] External Trade Dynamics - The trade war has led to a permanent gap in export scale, with an estimated $190 billion/month deficit due to tariffs imposed in 2018-2019[66] - The U.S. inventory replenishment cycle is nearing its end, which may impact China's net export demand[73] Consumer Behavior - Consumption showed resilience, with sales driven by trade-in programs amounting to 2.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, although year-on-year growth was approximately -8.1%[79] - Short-term loans for residents have not turned positive, indicating ongoing consumer caution[85] Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment continues to decline, with high-tier cities' weekly transaction volumes dropping to levels below those of 2024[91] - The demographic trend suggests a potential long-term decline in housing demand post-2028[97] Overall Economic Outlook - The growth target of around 5% for the year appears manageable, with Q3 growth projected between 4.9% and 5.0%, and Q4 expected to drop to 4.6%-4.7%[101]