南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年07月10日 source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 当前锂矿、锂盐和电芯市场均承压于显著的库存压力，去库存进程进展缓慢，中长期供需失衡的格局尚未出 现实质性缓解。当前市场存在两个短期逻辑，在价格下行周期中，锂盐产能过剩引发的出清压力正沿着产业 链向上游矿端传导，而矿价的松动又会反过来加剧锂盐价格的下行惯性，形成"锂盐跌-矿价松-锂盐再 跌"的负反馈循环风险。而期货反弹时则为锂盐企业创造了一定的套保窗口，并刺激生产积极性释放，进而 带动锂矿石的消耗，推动锂矿价格的上涨，形成"期货上涨-产能释放-矿耗增加-矿价跟涨"的阶梯式上涨链 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 震荡区间60000-70000 | 19.2% | 17.6% | source： ...

| | 锂云母 | 820 | 20 | 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 TT / H4 | 一工业级碳酸锂-平均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1385 | 30 | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 4500 | 75 | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 5340 | 80 | | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 30950 | 100 | | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 142780 | 20 | | | | | | 三元材料523 (単晶/动力型) | 114955 | 50 | | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 120255 | 0 | | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 変化值 | | | | | | 电碳- ...

碳酸锂日报 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约涨 0.16%至 64400 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 400 元/吨至 63300 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 400 元/吨至 61700 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 50 元/吨至 57420 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 626 吨至 13281 吨。 2. 供应端，7 月产量预计环比增加 3.9%至 81150 吨，但随着部分上游企业检修及技改，周度产量有所 放缓，对预期产量或将有一定下调，进口方面，5-6 月智利锂盐出口基本持平，预计整体 7 月碳酸 锂进口环比变化不大。需求端，7 月排产环比小幅增加，两大主材消耗碳酸锂环比增加 3%至 8.08 万 吨左右。库存端，周度库存延续累库，但目前锂盐+锂矿库存高企，据钢联数据约合 38 万吨 LCE。 3. 当前市场来看，整体市场情绪回暖，仓单维持低位水平，锂矿成交价格有所上涨，锂盐厂宣布停产 检修及技改，叠加市场消息面扰动较多，短期刺激价格上涨，但昨日仓单库存小幅增 ...

2025 年 7 月 10 日 碳酸锂：矿端存增量预期，仓单回升但总量偏低 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 64,400 | 520 | 440 | 3,520 | 3,440 | -11,560 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 350,125 | -195,280 | -190,310 | -16,618 | 284,794 | 346,679 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 326,895 | -11,139 | 1,321 | -23,511 | 138,865 | 309,525 | | | 盘面 | 2511合约（收盘价） | 64,080 | 540 | 520 ...

碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2511 | 卖出 | 70% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 30% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 管理 | 未来有采购计划，担心原 料有上涨风险 | 为防止未来碳酸锂价格上涨，依据采购计划买入碳 酸锂远期合约，锁定采购成本 | 远月碳酸锂合约 | 买入 | 依据采购计 划 依据采购计 | | | | 卖出看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 卖出 | | | | | | | | 划 | | | | 买入虚值看涨期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 当前锂矿、锂盐和电芯市场均承压于显著的库存压力，去库存进程进展缓慢，中长期供需失衡的格局尚未出 现实质性缓解。当前 ...

研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 64,400.00 | +520.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -93,307.00 | -23240.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 326,895.00 | -11139.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 540.00 | -820.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 12,655.00 | -2900.00↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 63,300.00 | +400.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 61,700.00 | +400.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -1,100.00 | -120.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-09 仓单持续注销，碳酸锂盘面偏强运行 整体来看，短期盘面拉涨带动现货与锂矿价格上涨，刚需有一定支撑，但盘面反弹后成交情况一般，近期新能源 品种均表现较强，碳酸锂7月老仓单需注销，新仓单注册情况不明，短期碳酸锂盘面偏强运行，后续需关注新仓单 注册情况。 单边：短期观望，若盘面反弹可逢高卖出套保 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 市场分析 2025年7月8日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于63860元/吨，收于63880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价小幅上涨。当日 成交量为545405手，持仓量为338034手，较前一交易日增加15500手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳1110 元/吨。所有合约总持仓599714手，较前一交易日增加8534手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加391491手，整 体投机度为1.13。当日碳酸锂仓单12655手，较上个交易日减少2700手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月7日电池级碳酸锂报价6.21-6.37万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.008-6.18万元/吨，较前一交易 ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 碳酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 谢灵 投资咨询号: Z0015788 从业资格号: F3040017 2025/07/09 有色金属研究中心 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 数据来源:SMM. 公开新闻整理 锂化合物 平均价 1000000 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 62900 350 4000 80000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 61300 350 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 60000 碳酸锂2507 65100 2.01% 碳酸锂2508 64240 0. 85% 40000 碳酸锂2509 0. 69% 63880 碳酸锂2510 63740 0. 7% 1000 碳酸锂2511 63540 0. 6% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 658 4 44 (1 i 20 · 5 5%-6%) 利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 61988 生产利 用 外购锂辉石精矿利润 46 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 67099 F 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6586 行业 津巴布韦将从 2027 年起禁止锂精矿出口。根据路透社,2025 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that lithium carbonate is expected to move in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the subsequent warehouse receipt volume. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2509 and 2511 contracts of lithium carbonate were 63,880 and 63,540 respectively, with changes of 220 and 200 compared to T - 1. The trading volumes of the 2509 and 2511 contracts were 545,405 and 55,172 respectively, and the open interests were 338,034 and 95,105 respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Volume**: The warehouse receipt volume was 12,655 hands, a decrease of 2,900 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and 2509 contract was -980, and the basis between 2509 and 2511 contracts was 340 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) were 658 and 1,355 respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were 62,900 and 61,300 respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,788 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 306 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Production Data**: In June 2025, the surveyed production of lithium carbonate was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The planned production in July was 79,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%. The production in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai regions showed different trends, and the production enthusiasm of some recycling manufacturers increased [2][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation with a neutral fundamental outlook. The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,220 - 64,540 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,123 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate increased by 0.44% daily, with a profit of 46 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite increased by 0.87% daily, with a loss of 6,586 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end is lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin [8]. - **Basis**: On July 8, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 980 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory was 138,347 tons, a 1.10% increase from the previous week and higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.61%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.56% [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and import and export data of lithium carbonate from different sources (such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake) showed various changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09% [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The data of demand - related aspects such as the monthly output, inventory, and export of lithium iron phosphate and other products also changed. For example, the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 18.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite showed different trends over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with a supply - demand gap in most months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly operating rates and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends over time [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends over time [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit of lithium carbonate import, purification, and other aspects, showed different trends over time [43][46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects showed different trends over time [51]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters showed different trends over time [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells, showed different trends over time [54][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends over time [67]. - **Export and Import**: The export and import volume of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [71]. - **Export and Inventory**: The export volume and inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [79][80]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers showed different trends over time [83].