Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of timely and professional information analysis in investment decision-making, focusing on extracting investment value from significant events and analyzing industry chain companies [1] - A company is highlighted for its core supplier role for Huawei, providing 224G high-speed backplane connectors and modules for AI server supply chains, which supports the high-speed interconnection needs of supernode GPUs [1] - Another company is noted for its integrated resource strategy in lithium and crude oil, with a nearly 50% increase in lithium spodumene resource volume at the Mali Buguni mine, facilitating a complete lithium salt industry chain and expanding its resource portfolio to cover both new energy and traditional energy sectors [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: March 27, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, with the external crude oil market shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. Inventory levels are neutral, and downstream demand is recovering [4][7]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iranian situation has caused short - term weakness in external crude oil, shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. In the supply - demand aspect, the spring plowing has started, and the demand for mulch film is good, but high - priced raw materials have led to a wait - and - see attitude among enterprises for inventory procurement. The packaging film demand is mainly based on rigid needs due to price increases, and the operating rate and orders in the pipe industry are low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8550 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 217, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 64.4 tons (+2.1), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, the external crude oil market is volatile, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues, and the main risk points are significant crude oil price fluctuations and international policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iranian situation has caused short - term weakness in external crude oil, shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. In the supply - demand aspect, multiple PDH units have shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises have low production willingness due to poor profit margins. The operating rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream customers are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 9050 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 70, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.8%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 50.0 tons (-9.7), which is bullish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, the external crude oil market is volatile, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues, and the main risk points are significant crude oil price fluctuations and international policy games [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 8550 (+150), the price of the 05 contract is 8767 (+52), the basis is - 217 (+98), the warehouse receipt is 4429 (-223), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 64.4 (+2.1) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 9050 (+150), the price of the 05 contract is 9120 (+145), the basis is - 70 (+5), the warehouse receipt is 13013 (-280), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 50.0 (-9.7) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally increased. The import dependence has decreased, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [15].

Group 1 - The Iranian intelligence minister, Ismail Khatib, was confirmed dead following an attack by the Israeli military on March 17 [1] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that all Iranians are considered targets for retaliation [2] - The geopolitical tensions are reflected in market movements, with the Dow Jones dropping over 400 points, while gold prices fell and oil prices surged [2]

Group 1 - The 14th National People's Congress held its fourth session on the morning of the 11th, where various reports including the work report of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate were reviewed [1] - In the afternoon, representative groups convened to discuss drafts of resolutions regarding the government work report, the "14th Five-Year" plan outline, annual plans, and annual budgets [1] Group 2 - The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held its closing meeting at the Great Hall of the People on the morning of the 11th [2]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 21, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] 3. Market Quotes | Futures Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2701 | 6720 | 6706 | 6720 | 6666 | -35 | -0.52 | 71 | 29 | | Plastic 2605 | 6660 | 6640 | 6664 | 6609 | -60 | -0.90 | 495212 | 9748 | | Plastic 2609 | 6702 | 6664 | 6702 | 6632 | -61 | -0.91 | 51049 | 2270 | | PP2701 | 6585 | 6459 | 6585 | 6447 | -41 | -0.63 | 586 | 79 | | PP2605 | 6488 | 6461 | 6490 | 6429 | -47 | -0.72 | 466241 | -4253 | | PP2609 | 6527 | 6492 | 6527 | 6461 | -49 | -0.75 | 85985 | -3354 | [5] 4. Market Review and Outlook - L2605 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6640 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-0.9%), with a trading volume of 380,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 9808 lots to 495,272 lots. PP2605 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan, a decline of 0.72%, with a decrease in open interest of 4253 lots to 466,200 lots [6]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply pressure of polypropylene has been relieved due to an increase in temporary maintenance, but it will increase slightly next week as maintenance decreases. For plastics, the reduction in loss volume and the concentrated arrival of imported cargoes have increased the overall supply pressure compared to the previous period. On the demand side, downstream resistance to high prices has increased. The demand for mulch film has driven a slight increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, while the operating rates of other sectors have remained basically stable. Some downstream factories are rushing to fulfill annual orders, but the orders lack sustainability under the background of high raw material prices. Small-scale enterprises may reduce production or enter the holiday period in advance [6]. - With the geopolitical events calming down and the US lifting some sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, and the start of Venezuelan crude oil sales, the cost support has weakened as the marginal negative factors of crude oil emerge. Coupled with the marginal weakening of the supply-demand structure, polyolefins have experienced a weak correction [6]. 5. Industry News - On January 20, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 560,000 tons, the same as the previous working day, while the inventory in the same period last year was 495,000 tons [7]. - The PE market price continued to decline. The LLDPE price in North China was 6570 - 6900 yuan/ton, in East China was 6750 - 7000 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6120 - 6190 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. There was a game between supply and demand in the market. The downstream demand enthusiasm had slightly improved, and the production enterprises' offers were stable with a slight increase. The actual orders of the major manufacturers in the auction had a slight premium, but the overall market sentiment remained cautious [7]. - The PP market continued to be weak. The mainstream price of drawn wire in North China was 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6300 - 6570 yuan/ton [7]. 6. Data Overview - Figures include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate [9][11][16] - Data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information [10][13][15][17][18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the potential for asset revaluation in China, emphasizing that the upward market momentum is driven by narrative trading rather than performance [1][19] - The recent adjustment in the market is attributed to the regulatory measures aimed at curbing excessive speculation and market manipulation, indicating a shift towards a more fundamentals-driven market [1][19] - The article highlights the significant adjustments in the military and real estate sectors, which were previously characterized by narrative trading, reflecting a correction in investor sentiment [2][20] Group 2 - Narrative trading is defined as a market behavior that relies on investor psychology and macroeconomic uncertainty, where narratives replace fundamental data as the primary anchor for asset pricing [5][23] - The characteristics of narrative trading include cognitive anchoring prioritizing narratives over data validation, a disconnection between valuation and fundamentals, and a market cycle driven by capital speculation [6][24] - The conditions for narrative trading to thrive include a high proportion of retail investors, active speculation, and an environment of rising global uncertainty [7][25] Group 3 - The article outlines the behavior of global asset narrative trading from 2025 to the present, noting that macroeconomic uncertainty has amplified cognitive biases, leading to narratives replacing fundamentals in investment decisions [9][26] - Specific asset classes such as precious metals and AI technology stocks have experienced significant valuation changes driven by prevailing narratives, while traditional consumer stocks face valuation pressure due to negative narratives [10][27][31] - The narrative trading phenomenon is linked to a broader context of geopolitical tensions and economic restructuring, which influences investor behavior and market dynamics [15][32] Group 4 - The article predicts that narrative trading will gradually decline by 2026, with a return to fundamentals-based pricing expected as macroeconomic uncertainties stabilize and fundamental data regain their explanatory power [17][33] - It is anticipated that the self-correction of valuation bubbles will occur as key narratives face verification challenges, leading to a shift in capital allocation towards assets with solid performance [18][34] - The article suggests that cognitive biases will begin to correct, allowing undervalued assets to regain recognition, further constraining the space for narrative-driven trading [18][34]

Core Insights - The QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) funds have shown significant performance differentiation in 2025, with some funds achieving remarkable returns while others faced substantial losses due to market volatility and sector-specific challenges [1][4][6]. Performance Highlights - The top-performing QDII fund, Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection, achieved a return of over 112%, benefiting from the global rise in innovative pharmaceuticals and biotechnology [2][9]. - Other notable funds include China Universal Global Pharmaceutical Biology and E Fund Global Growth Selection, both with returns exceeding 88%, driven by the global pharmaceutical sector's growth [2][9]. - The E Fund Gold Theme QDII also performed well, nearing a 70% return amid global risk aversion and monetary policy adjustments [2][9]. Underperformers - In contrast, several QDII funds focused on oil and real estate faced significant declines, with returns ranging from -10.78% to -13.76% for oil-themed funds like E Fund Oil and Southern Oil [4][11]. - Funds tracking the Saudi Arabian market also struggled, with returns exceeding -12% since their inception in 2024 [4][11]. - Real estate-focused funds, such as Penghua US Real Estate and Nuveen Global Real Estate, reported negative annual returns, reflecting broader market challenges [4][11]. Market Trends - The performance of QDII funds in 2025 highlights the importance of sector-specific trends, with technology and healthcare being key drivers of growth, while traditional cyclical assets like oil and real estate remain sensitive to macroeconomic conditions [6][13]. - The ability to diversify across different asset classes and geographic regions is emphasized as a critical strategy for investors to mitigate risks associated with concentrated investments [6][13].

Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are $4480.80, $69.74, $2208.00, $1837.00, $58.38, and $12223.50 respectively, with changes of $31.40, $0.00, $125.00, $64.00, $0.00, and $291.50 [1] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.95, 1.18, 1.35, 155.94, and 1.94 respectively, with changes of 0.04, -0.00, -0.00, -0.32, and 0.00 [1] Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory, SHFE silver inventory, gold ETF holdings, silver ETF holdings, SGE silver inventory are 14023.94, 881.95, 1068.27, 16446.97, 693.35 respectively [1] - The changes in SHFE silver inventory, gold ETF holdings, silver ETF holdings, SGE gold deferred - fee payment direction, and SGE silver deferred - fee payment direction are -17.71, 3.71, -56.40, 0.00, -1.00 respectively [1]

Market Performance - On December 5, US stock indices saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.22%, Nasdaq up 0.31%, and S&P 500 up 0.19% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Broadcom increasing over 2%, Google and Meta up over 1%, while Apple and Nvidia had declines of less than 1% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.29%, with popular Chinese stocks like Baidu up over 5% and Global Data up over 4% [1] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.69%, marking three consecutive days of gains, closing at $60.08 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.6% [5] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.77%, closing at $63.75 per barrel, with a weekly rise of 2.2% [5] - The precious metals market experienced volatility, with spot gold initially rising over 1.2% before falling below $4200 [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark, trading at $89,165.81, down 3.16% [6] - According to Coinglass, 133,381 individuals were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $425 million (approximately 3 billion yuan) [8][9] - Bitcoin's performance in 2025 shows a decline of 3%, marking the first annual drop in a year when the S&P 500 rose over 16% since 2014, indicating a significant decoupling from traditional risk assets [10] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Confidence Index rose for the first time in five months, driven by improved personal financial outlooks [11] - The preliminary consumer confidence index for December increased from 51 in November to 53.3, with inflation expectations for the next year at 4.1%, the lowest since January [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be in a weak or fluctuating state, while others are affected by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, trade relations, and policies [5][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1.油脂 - **观点**：继续偏弱运行，关注近期低点支撑有效性，中期展望为豆油、棕油、菜油均震荡偏弱 [5]. - **逻辑**：宏观上，美国联邦政府“停摆”，中美贸易谈判将再度进行，市场对美联储降息预期强等；产业端，美豆数据暂停更新，收获进度达7层，单产下调概率大，巴西新季大豆预期产量增3.6%，种植进度21.7%，国内进口大豆到港量或处高位，豆油去库慢；马棕10月或累库，印尼生柴需求预期增加，印度植物油进口或季节性下降；10月后国内菜油库存或止降回升 [5]. 3.1.2.蛋白粕 - **观点**：空头获利了结，双粕低位大幅反弹，中期展望为豆粕、菜粕震荡 [6]. - **逻辑**：国际上，中美月底会晤前将在马来磋商，阿根廷挤占美豆出口份额，巴西大豆对华出口增加，巴西新作播种进度同比偏快；国内方面，市场采购美豆预期存变数，空头获利了结引发反弹，美豆进口增长预期叠加现实供应压力，期现货价格反弹高度有限，长期四季度国内豆粕供应充足，2026年一季度或有少量缺口，需求端豆粕消费刚需或稳中有增，水产消费淡季菜粕弱于豆粕 [6]. 3.1.3.玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：现货涨跌不一，期货震荡企稳，中期展望为震荡 [7]. - **逻辑**：国内玉米价格涨跌互现，东北丰产预期强，面临卖压冲击，华北受降雨影响，粮质霉变风险高，收割进度受扰，销区用粮企业刚需补库；短期反弹有港口缺货、直属库收购等因素，卖压驱动未完全释放，维持震荡偏弱看法，长期库存趋紧，市场短空长多 [9]. 3.1.4.生猪 - **观点**：下游抵触高价，猪价震荡，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [10]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期二育少量入场，10月出栏量环比增5%，中期四季度出栏量预计增加，长期能繁母猪产能开始去化；需求为消费淡季，肉猪比价下跌；库存二育小幅累库；短期供需宽松，猪周期下行，长期产能去化后供应压力有望减轻 [10]. 3.1.5.天然橡胶 - **观点**：继续震荡整理运行，中期展望为震荡 [11]. - **逻辑**：天胶阶段性见底和估值偏低带来超跌反弹，RU抛储超预期，01合约仍可能炒作，NR标胶进口量低、仓单少、原料坚挺；基本面无新增信息，供应压力不大，需求端四季度轮胎出口走弱预期内，价格单边难把控，关注增仓上涨持续性 [13]. 3.1.6.合成橡胶 - **观点**：盘面延续窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [15]. - **逻辑**：今年产量偏高是盘面压力，下游需求增加但增速不及产量，社会库存高位；原料丁二烯价格上周跌后整理，宏观消息和刚需买盘提振成交气氛 [15]. 3.1.7.棉花 - **观点**：成本提升抬高郑棉估值，关注贸易磋商动态，中期展望为震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：国庆前棉价下行，节后跌势放缓反弹，原因一是新疆棉花产量预估下调，二是籽棉收购价坚挺推高皮棉加工成本；短期棉价易涨难跌，四季度上涨后有回调风险，关注中美贸易谈判 [17]. 3.1.8.白糖 - **观点**：外弱内强，糖价低位盘整，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [19]. - **逻辑**：中长期25/26榨季全球糖市供应过剩，主产国产量预计增加，糖价熊市格局；短期巴西中南部食糖产量下降但出口增加，国内销量一般，库存同比提高，进口高值，外盘走低，内盘抗跌，后续北半球新糖供应期糖价走弱压力增大 [19]. 3.1.9.纸浆 - **观点**：期货连续反弹，现货维持弱势，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [20]. - **逻辑**：期货延续反弹，现货清淡，十一后期货底部震荡；供需无明显利多，市场关注纸浆虚实结合比和年底集中注销；基本面难大涨，欧洲消费疲弱，中国刚需稳定，追涨情绪不高，国内经济偏弱，需警惕废纸系影响，01合约低位震荡，偏空交易 [20]. 3.1.10.双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸维持窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [21]. - **逻辑**：盘面在4200元一线震荡，10月底招标旺季，现货重心持稳；纸厂排产情况不一，经销商稳价出货，市场订单跟进不足，下游印厂刚需采买，交投不活跃；成本端木浆市场少数下跌，招标季纸价有底部支撑，但华南新产能放量或牵制纸价 [22]. 3.1.11.原木 - **观点**：原木震荡运行，中期展望为震荡 [24]. - **逻辑**：特别港务费出台后盘面短期提振，海运费上涨提高估值，但现货10月末有下调预期；基本面偏弱，重庆国产材交割利空，港口出库量回落，库存累库；四季度新西兰原木进口季节性增长，库存绝对水平不低，房地产需求疲软，交割面暂无明显驱动，关注新西兰发运情况 [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 - The report lists different product categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3.评级标准 - The report provides a rating standard including "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease 1 - 2 standard deviations), "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations), with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [178]. 3.4.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**：Not provided with specific data. - **特色指数**：The "商品20指数" is 2546.54, up 0.58%; the "工业品指数" is 2229.03, up 1.12%; the "PPI商品指数" is 1342.15, up 0.86% [180]. - **板块指数**：The "农产品指数" on 2025 - 10 - 23 is 928.25, with a daily increase of 0.45%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.42%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.77% [181].