2025 年 10 月 9 日 碳酸锂：假期供需持稳，区间震荡延续 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 72,800 | -1,120 | -860 | -380 | -4,380 | 10,720 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 317,458 | -148,133 | -180,399 | -182,809 | -172,600 | 280,176 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 231,964 | -19,785 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the current situation of lithium carbonate, indicating that inventory depletion is limited and the price is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, suggesting a relatively bearish outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 78,140 yuan, down 900 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 12,780 lots, down 2,247 lots; and the open interest was 22,844 lots, down 6,370 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 78,140 yuan, down 720 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 805,585 lots, up 75,940 lots; and the open interest was 347,063 lots, down 4,259 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Basis**: The warehouse receipt volume was 28,957 lots, up 1,480 lots from T - 1. The basis of spot - 2509 was 1,860 yuan, down 700 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 1,860 yuan, down 880 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 889 dollars, down 31 dollars from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,915 yuan, down 55 yuan from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan, down 1,600 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,700 yuan, down 1,600 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Related Products in the Industry Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 35,205 yuan, down 385 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,100 yuan, down 300 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,942 yuan/ton, down 1,729 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,700 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate inventory this week was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 407 tons from last week, and the production this week was 19,030 tons, a decrease of 108 tons from last week [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, while 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests that lithium carbonate will experience range - bound fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to supply disturbances [1]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Market Data**: - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 87,580, down 1,720 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 28,450, down 21,903; and the open interest was 76,200, down 4,917 [2]. - For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 87,540, down 1,700 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 734,929, down 301,399; and the open interest was 414,097, down 7,009 [2]. - The warehouse receipt volume was 23,615, up 60 compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Price Differences**: - The spot - 2509 was - 1,880, up 2,820 compared to T - 1; the spot - 2511 was - 1,840, up 2,800 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The 2509 - 2511 basis was 40, down 20 compared to T - 1; the electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,300, unchanged compared to T - 1; the spot - CIF was 16,035, up 1,073 compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Raw Material Prices**: - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 978, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,185, unchanged compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700, up 1,100 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 9,700, unchanged compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400, up 1,100 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 82,710, up 1,000 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) was 8,850, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 36,490, up 320 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) was 35,085, up 315 compared to T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage type) was 32,085, up 255 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,530, up 300 compared to T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 117,890, up 300 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 146,070, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,300, up 800 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of electrolyte (for ternary power) was 21,850, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of electrolyte (for lithium iron phosphate) was 17,850, unchanged compared to T - 1 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,941 yuan/ton, up 1,147 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the battery - grade lithium carbonate price range was 84,300 - 87,100 yuan/ton, with an average of 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price range was 82,700 - 84,100 yuan/ton, with an average of 83,400 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [3]. - On August 19, Jiangte Motor announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy Co., Ltd., which had previously suspended production for equipment maintenance, would resume production soon [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].