Market Overview - As of January 28, the spot settlement price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 166,500 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous working day, with transactions around 165,000 CNY being reported as acceptable [1] - The settlement price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) is 162,000 CNY/ton, also unchanged from the previous working day [1] - In the futures market, the main contract closed at 166,280 CNY/ton, down 6,740 CNY from the previous working day, with an increase in net long position reductions [1] ICC Lithium Battery Settlement Prices - Lithium concentrate price is 2,210 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month average of 1,249 CNY [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is priced at 16.65 CNY, with a month-on-month average of 10.2 CNY [2] - Lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) is priced at 16.2 CNY, with a month-on-month average of 8.58 CNY [2] - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) is priced at 5.5 CNY, with a month-on-month average of 4.05 CNY [2] - NCM (811) material is priced at 20.95 CNY, with a month-on-month average of 16.76 CNY [2] - Prismatic energy storage cell (lithium iron phosphate) is priced at 0.365 CNY, with a month-on-month average of 0.307 CNY [2] Industry Focus - In South America, Rio Tinto's lithium equivalent production is projected to reach 57,000 tons by Q4 2025, with Fenix and Olaroz both achieving record quarterly production [5] - In Australia, Core Lithium holds approximately 5,000 tons of lithium concentrate and 75,000 tons of lithium powder in inventory, which are available for sale [5] - Core Lithium has reached an agreement with Tesla to terminate negotiations on a purchase agreement to support the future restart of the Finniss lithium project [5] Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing intense competition, with significant attention on February's production scheduling as the month-end approaches [7] - Current insights indicate that downstream order conditions remain good for February, with most companies maintaining normal production during the Spring Festival, resulting in a 10% reduction in production due to natural days [7] - Lithium salt plants are also expected to maintain normal production during the Spring Festival, with limited impact on lithium carbonate output, leading to a tight balance in the overall lithium carbonate market [7] - The ability of lithium carbonate prices to break through in the short term will depend on the pace of pre-holiday inventory buildup by downstream users [7]

近期，宜春八矿中已有两矿更新进度，处于换证进程中。 自然资源部采矿许可信息查验系统显示，宜春国轩矿业有限责任公司的水南矿开采主矿种已变更为"锂 矿"，说明已经进入换证阶段。同样，宁德时代枧下窝锂矿的开采主矿种也变更为"锂矿"。此前，枧下 窝锂矿已于2025年12月18日进入第一次环评公示阶段，公示期为10个工作日。 关于换证停产问题，国轩高科回应记者称，目前也在了解情况，以公司公开信息为准。 按照有关法规，换证期间矿山应处于停产状态。《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》规定，变更主要开采矿 种的，采矿权人应当在采矿许可证有效期内，向登记管理机关申请变更登记。任何单位和个人未领取采 矿许可证擅自采矿的，由登记管理机关依照有关法律、行政法规的规定予以处罚。 新的采矿许可证下达或仍需等待较长周期。一位业内知情人士告诉记者，矿山企业申请变更开采主矿 种，是矿业权管理中的重大变更登记事项之一，其办理周期长、流程复杂、不确定性高。通常，一个完 整的变更流程至少需要1.5年至3年甚至更长时间，具体周期受项目基础、地区政策、审批层级等因素影 响巨大。其中，如涉及重做或重大变更，环评报告需重新报批，整个过程包括编制、公示、评审、批 复 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：牛钱网 嘉宾介绍：柯俊年，浙江前程石化新能源事业部期现业务经理，毕业于英国雷丁大学亨利商学院ICMA 中心国际证券，投资银行专业，国际数量金融工程师持证人（COF）。曾任职于汇丰集团（环球银行& 资本市场部）、中信建投期货和中粮期货，具有权证，牛熊证，外汇，期货衍生品等交易经验，目前在 公司从事碳酸锂期现贸易以及策略分析工作。 回顾近期市场，碳酸锂呈现"强现实、强预期"的双重特征。现货层面，因关键供应方停产导致持续去 库，基差走强，产业链采购模式转向刚需即点。预期层面，市场对明年供需格局的判断发生根本性转 变，从过往的深度过剩修正为紧平衡甚至阶段性短缺，这显著改变了资金的交易逻辑与产业的套保行 为。 1、现货市场：供应瓶颈驱动去库，产业链行为模式转变 近期碳酸锂价格强势的核心在于现货市场的紧平衡格局，这直接驱动了产业链各环节行为的转变。 1．供应瓶颈与持续去库：由于某头部企业复产进度持续不及预期，市场供应存在明显缺口。这导致碳 酸锂社会库存持续去化，近期每周去库量维持在2000吨以上。供应紧张不仅体现在锂盐端，也传导至上 游锂矿，锂矿现货 ...