Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium mining, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, with the de - stocking process progressing slowly, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance remaining unmitigated. There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - mining price decline - further lithium salt price drop" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - mining price increase". The cost curve is flattening due to technological upgrades, driving the central price of lithium carbonate down. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will decline in the fourth quarter as technological upgrades are completed and production is concentratedly released. - There are multiple factors affecting the price of lithium carbonate. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the market trading the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future production expectations of lithium mines, continuous inventory accumulation, and delayed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the lithium carbonate main contract and the LC2511 contract all increased. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 69,380 yuan/ton to 76,680 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 10.52% and a weekly increase of 12.83%. The trading volume of the LC2511 contract increased from 241,623 lots to 313,782 lots, a daily increase of 29.86% and a weekly increase of 235.73% [8]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Changes**: The month - to - month spreads of LC08 - 11, LC09 - 11, and LC11 - 12 all changed. For example, the LC09 - 11 spread increased from 760 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 121% and a weekly increase of 115% [10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily quotes of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li₂O:2 - 2.5% increased by 50 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.12%, and a weekly increase of 12.97% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Quotes**: The average daily quotes of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide also changed. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 63,350 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 8.76% [17]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, and between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price all changed. For example, the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 0% and a weekly increase of 3.13% [20]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The average daily quotes of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also changed. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from 32,665 yuan/ton to 32,690 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.08% [22]. 3. Basis and Warrant Data - **Lithium Carbonate Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, remained stable. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy's battery - grade lithium carbonate for the LC2507 contract was 100 yuan/ton with a daily change of 0% [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warrant Quantity**: The total number of lithium carbonate warrants increased from 10,754 lots to 11,654 lots, an increase of 900 lots. Some warehouses saw changes in warrant quantities, such as a 300 - lot increase in Suining Tiancheng and a 20 - lot decrease in Wugang Wuxi [29]. 4. Cost and Profit - There are graphs showing the production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [31].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the current market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price loosening - further lithium salt price drop". When the futures rebound, it creates a hedging window for lithium salt enterprises, forming a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase", but the price will eventually fall back due to the oversupply fundamentals [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upwards at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will fluctuate downwards in the fourth quarter due to the end of technological transformation and increased production [3]. - Strategy suggestions: pay attention to the long - short spread trading opportunity between LC2509 and LC2511; pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 63,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.3% and a historical percentile of 27.1% in the past three years [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day; the trading volume is 764,028 lots, down 250,530 lots or 24.69%; the open interest is 342,146 lots, down 14,015 lots or 3.94%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 66,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.15%; the trading volume and open interest remain unchanged [10]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 spread is 760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 5.56%; the LC09 - 11 spread is 560 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 17%; the LC11 - 12 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or - 15% [13]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores show different changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 5 - 5.5%) is 4,975 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.40%; the average price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 690 US dollars/ton, down 2.5 US dollars or - 0.36% [18]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also have different changes. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan or 0.40% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The current value of the battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 2,330 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 12.02% [23]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also show different changes. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 31,330 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.18% [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotations**: The basis quotations of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract are provided, such as the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy is 400 yuan/ton, and that of Tianqi Lithium is 500 yuan/ton [29]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 11,204 lots, down 1 lot from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Wugang Wuxi's warehouse receipts decreasing by 20 lots, and Suining Tiancheng's increasing by 120 lots [34]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report presents the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit of lithium carbonate [32].