南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年07月24日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 68000-75000 | 42.2% | 73.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2511 | 卖出 | 50% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the current market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price loosening - further lithium salt price drop". When the futures rebound, it creates a hedging window for lithium salt enterprises, forming a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase", but the price will eventually fall back due to the oversupply fundamentals [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upwards at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will fluctuate downwards in the fourth quarter due to the end of technological transformation and increased production [3]. - Strategy suggestions: pay attention to the long - short spread trading opportunity between LC2509 and LC2511; pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 63,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.3% and a historical percentile of 27.1% in the past three years [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day; the trading volume is 764,028 lots, down 250,530 lots or 24.69%; the open interest is 342,146 lots, down 14,015 lots or 3.94%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 66,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.15%; the trading volume and open interest remain unchanged [10]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 spread is 760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 5.56%; the LC09 - 11 spread is 560 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 17%; the LC11 - 12 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or - 15% [13]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores show different changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 5 - 5.5%) is 4,975 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.40%; the average price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 690 US dollars/ton, down 2.5 US dollars or - 0.36% [18]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also have different changes. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan or 0.40% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The current value of the battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 2,330 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 12.02% [23]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also show different changes. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 31,330 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.18% [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotations**: The basis quotations of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract are provided, such as the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy is 400 yuan/ton, and that of Tianqi Lithium is 500 yuan/ton [29]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 11,204 lots, down 1 lot from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Wugang Wuxi's warehouse receipts decreasing by 20 lots, and Suining Tiancheng's increasing by 120 lots [34]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report presents the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit of lithium carbonate [32].