. 南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月03日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 品种 价格区间预测 当前波动率（20日滚动） 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） 碳酸锂主力合约 强支撑位：130000 112.1% 96.6% source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - The strong support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 65.3% and a historical percentile of 93.2% over 3 years [3] - The closing price of the main contract was 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan (7.00%) daily and 29,040 yuan (21.05%) weekly. The trading volume was 608,177 lots, up 539,686 lots (787.97%) daily and 303,940 lots (99.90%) weekly. The open interest was 460,281 lots, down 46,421 lots (-9.16%) daily and 74,718 lots (-13.97%) weekly [4] - The closing price of the weighted index contract was 167,443 yuan/ton, up 10,934 yuan (6.99%) daily and 29,277 yuan (21.19%) weekly. The trading volume was 1,181,972 lots, up 1,053,672 lots (821.26%) daily and 646,397 lots (120.69%) weekly. The open interest was 901,351 lots, down 93,555 lots (-9.40%) daily and 95,114 lots (-9.55%) weekly [4] - The LC2605 - LC2607 spread was -620 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan (-36.73%) daily and 60 yuan (-8.82%) weekly. The LC2605 - LC2609 spread was -2,220 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan (-5.93%) daily and down 140 yuan (6.73%) weekly. The LC2607 - LC2609 spread was -1,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan (15.94%) daily and 200 yuan (14.29%) weekly [4] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 25,970 lots, up 610 lots (2.41%) daily and 5,689 lots (28.05%) weekly [4] 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium ore prices showed significant increases. For example, lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) rose to 4,950 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan (6.68%); lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) rose to 8,625 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan (2.68%) [20] - Lithium salt prices also increased. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose to 156,000 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan (5.05%); battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 159,500 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan (4.93%) [20] - Other products like industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and various cathode materials and electrolytes also had price increases to varying degrees [20][22] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the main continuous contract, near - month contract, and brand - based basis of lithium carbonate are presented, along with the basis quotes of different companies such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc. [29][30][31] - The total number of warehouse receipts was 25,970 lots, an increase of 610 lots. Some warehouses had changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Rongjie Group increasing by 230 lots and Shanghai Guochu decreasing by 13 lots [35] 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene and lithium mica), the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods, the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented [37][38][39]

Group 1 - The company Tianhua New Energy announced that its subsidiary Yichun Shengyuan obtained a mining license for the ceramic clay (containing lithium) mine in Jiangxi Province, with a resource volume of 547 million tons and an average grade of 0.31% lithium oxide, amounting to 1.686 million tons of lithium oxide [1] - The resource volume report submitted to local government authorities has been approved, indicating compliance with regulatory requirements [1] - The company aims to complete the construction of the mining and selection production by the first half of 2027 and achieve production in the second half of 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential cancellation of mining licenses for 27 mining sites, including the Wuqiao ceramic stone mine in Gao'an City, may have implications for the company, while the company has confirmed significant lithium resources in another area [1] Group 1: Company Information - Tianhua New Energy (300390.SZ) reported a lithium ore resource of 547 million tons in the Jinziping-Zuojiali mining area of Fengxin County, Jiangxi Province, with an average grade of 0.31% and lithium oxide amounting to 1.686 million tons [1] - The company has successfully submitted a resource report to local government authorities, which has been approved [1] - The company aims to establish mining production by the first half of 2027 and achieve ore selection and production in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The proposed cancellation of mining licenses by the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau could impact the mining industry in the region, raising questions about resource availability and operational stability for companies involved [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 8, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The spot market trading was light, and the basis changed from premium to discount. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with repeated news of lithium mine resumption in Jiangxi, high weekly production of lithium carbonate, strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, light spot market trading, and stagnant demand growth, the short - term fundamentals show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Under position limits, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On December 8th, the trading volume of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 99967 lots (+137860), and the open interest was 593129 lots (+32453). The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts all had certain increases compared to the previous period. [1] Spot Market - As of December 5th, the spot port + warehouse inventory of lithium ore of 30 sample lithium ore traders was 160,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, with salable inventory of 100,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated at a high level. Due to contract month - changing and postponed delivery at the ore end, the processing fee space of lithium salt plants increased slightly, and there were more scattered transactions of lithium ore. Overall, lithium ore inventory continued to transfer to lithium salt plants. [1] Cost - The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also increased. [1] Supply - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, with the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreasing and that from other sources increasing. [1] Demand - Downstream: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the output of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate and manganese acid lithium decreased, while the output of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand: In November, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; 3C shipments weakened; in December, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries stagnated. [1] Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 13120 tons (+2198 tons). Social inventory was destocked, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, and downstream was tight. [1]

Core Insights - The city of Kangding is focusing on green development, leveraging its rich lithium resources and clean energy potential to drive economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Clean Energy Development - Kangding has a total hydropower installed capacity of 6.87 million kilowatts, with an expected total grid-connected electricity output of 26.135 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, generating a value of 6.876 billion yuan [1] - The city is actively promoting the construction of power grids, including the Sichuan-Chongqing ultra-high voltage project and the Jinshang-Hubei ±800 kV DC transmission line, enhancing the transmission of clean energy [1] Group 2: Lithium Industry Growth - Kangding aims for an annual output value of 1 billion yuan from its lithium industry, with confirmed lithium oxide resource reserves of 2.2915 million tons and potential reserves exceeding 3.5 million tons [2] - The city plans to focus on the development of the Ningde Times project to strengthen the lithium battery industry cluster and create a new growth pole for green industry [2] - Efforts will be made to introduce and promote "ecological mining" and "digital mining" technologies for the green, low-carbon, and intelligent development of lithium resources [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Mining's stock increased by 5.51% on September 19, reaching a price of 12.25 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.04 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.68%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 18.473 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd. is located at 55 Huanghe Street, Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, established on October 29, 1999, and listed on May 10, 2021 [1] - The company's main business includes iron ore mining, production and sales of iron concentrate and pellets, as well as processing and sales of manufactured sand and gravel [1] - Revenue composition: iron concentrate 71.07%, pellets 20.48%, sulfuric acid 4.58%, sand and gravel 2.73%, others 0.81%, zinc concentrate 0.32%, lithium ore 0.02% [1] Fund Holdings - Xinhua Fund has a significant holding in Dazhong Mining, with the Xinhua Active Value Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund (001681) holding 127,100 shares, accounting for 1.91% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The fund has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 81,300 CNY today [2] - The Xinhua Active Value Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund was established on December 21, 2015, with a latest scale of 57.4815 million CNY, yielding 7.36% year-to-date, ranking 6178 out of 8172 in its category; over the past year, it achieved a return of 32.45%, ranking 4925 out of 7980; since inception, it has returned 40.58% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has discovered a super-large altered granite-type lithium deposit in the Jijiao Mountain mining area, with a total lithium ore submission of 490 million tons and a lithium oxide resource amount of 1.31 million tons [1] Group 1: Resource Discovery - The significant exploration achievement in the mining area will be accounted for in the balance sheet [1] - The resources will be recorded as intangible assets once the mining license is obtained [1] - The subsequent depreciation and amortization will be calculated using the production method after the commencement of production [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the price trend of lithium carbonate futures lies in the interaction between supply - side disturbances and the peak - season expectations on the demand side. The news of the restart of Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has caused abnormal fluctuations in futures prices, and the market shows signs of irrational sentiment. The social inventory has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks, and the downstream inventory is in a healthy range, indicating the resilience of terminal demand. The demand side provides key support, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton in the next month. However, if the supply - side disturbances are less than expected or the demand - side restocking weakens, the price may face downward pressure [2][4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include potential production suspension risks of lithium mines in Jiangxi, uncertainties in supply due to green mine construction, and expected growth in downstream production. Negative factors include the filling of supply gaps as prices rise, the acceleration of overseas lithium mine production, and the risk of insufficient restocking on the demand side [4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price Interval Prediction - The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 76,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 40.7% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 67.2% [2]. Lithium - Ion Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Procurement Management - For cases where product prices are not correlated: When there is a plan to produce battery materials in the future and there is a concern about rising procurement costs, for the futures tool, buy corresponding futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry range of 67,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, sell put options with a hedging ratio of 30% and an entry point of LC2511 - P - 68000 [2]. - For cases where product prices are correlated: When there is a plan to produce battery materials in the future and there is a concern about rising procurement costs, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress with a hedging ratio of 70% based on the procurement cost; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% based on the procurement cost. When there is a plan to produce lithium carbonate in the future and there is a concern about falling sales profits, for the futures tool, sell corresponding futures contracts according to the production plan with a hedging ratio of 80% based on the sales profit; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 40% based on the sales profit [2]. Sales Management - When raw materials are highly correlated with lithium carbonate prices and finished products have a low correlation with lithium carbonate prices: When there is a plan to purchase lithium - containing raw materials to produce finished products in the future and there is a concern about falling sales profits, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress with a hedging ratio of 80% based on the procurement cost; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 60% based on the procurement cost [2]. Inventory Management - When there is a concern about inventory depreciation due to future price drops in the inventory of raw materials/lithium carbonate with a high price correlation, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract with a hedging ratio of 60% - 80% in the range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, sell call options with a hedging ratio of 40% - 60% at LC2511 - C - 79000 [2]. Futures Data - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 71,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 280 yuan (0.40%) and a weekly decrease of 2,420 yuan (- 3.30%); the trading volume is 426,041 lots, with a daily decrease of 325,439 lots (- 43.31%) and a weekly decrease of 286,110 lots (- 40.18%); the open interest is 323,456 lots, with a daily decrease of 17,358 lots (- 5.09%) and a weekly decrease of 30,218 lots (- 8.54%) [10]. - The closing price of the weighted lithium carbonate contract is 71,181 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 354 yuan (0.50%) and a weekly decrease of 2,218 yuan (- 3.02%); the trading volume is 564,454 lots, with a daily decrease of 498,948 lots (- 46.92%) and a weekly decrease of 382,933 lots (- 40.42%); the open interest is 778,508 lots, with a daily decrease of 17,672 lots (- 2.22%) and a weekly increase of 552 lots (0.07%) [10]. Spot Data - Lithium ore prices: The average price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 2.2%) daily and 90 yuan (- 4.83%) weekly; the average price of spodumene (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 3,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (- 2.56%) daily and 250 yuan (- 7.58%) weekly; etc. [19]. - Lithium carbonate/hydroxide prices: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.84%) daily and 2,100 yuan (- 2.89%) weekly; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.82%) daily and 2,150 yuan (- 2.87%) weekly; etc. [21]. - Price differences in the lithium industry chain: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan (- 2.17%); the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 6,570 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan (5.63%) and a weekly increase of 750 yuan (12.89%); etc. [25]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Brand basis quotes for lithium carbonate: For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan, with no change [31]. - Warehouse receipt data: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 38,391 lots, an increase of 290 lots from the previous day. For example, the warehouse receipts of Zhongchu Lingang increased by 220 lots to 750 lots, and the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Guochu decreased by 13 lots to 0 lots [34]. Cost and Profit - Lithium carbonate production profit: The production profit from purchasing spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lepidolite concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) shows certain trends over time [35]. - Lithium carbonate import profit and theoretical delivery profit also show certain trends over time [35][36].

Core Insights - Hunan Province has discovered a super-large altered granite-type lithium deposit in the Tongtianmiao mining section of the Jijiao Mountain area, with a total lithium ore volume of 490 million tons and lithium oxide resource amounting to 1.31 million tons [1] - The discovery includes associated strategic minerals such as rubidium, tungsten, and tin, all of which are newly identified resources [1] - Hunan Dazhonghe Lithium Mining Co., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dazhong Mining, acquired exploration rights and has been actively involved in the exploration process [1] Company Developments - Hunan Dazhonghe Lithium Mining obtained control of the exploration rights in the Jijiashan area after acquiring 80% of Chengtai Mining's shares for 7 million yuan in April 2023 [1] - The company aims to enhance resource development efforts and establish a significant position in the new energy industry chain, contributing to long-term shareholder value [1] Industry Implications - The discovery of this large lithium resource is expected to provide solid resource support for Hunan Province's goal of building a trillion-level new energy industry chain and a hundred billion-level new energy industry base in Chenzhou City [1] - This breakthrough in resource discovery marks a significant advancement in Dazhong Mining's strategic layout within the new energy materials sector [1]