Core Viewpoint - The potential cancellation of mining licenses for 27 mining sites, including the Wuqiao ceramic stone mine in Gao'an City, may have implications for the company, while the company has confirmed significant lithium resources in another area [1] Group 1: Company Information - Tianhua New Energy (300390.SZ) reported a lithium ore resource of 547 million tons in the Jinziping-Zuojiali mining area of Fengxin County, Jiangxi Province, with an average grade of 0.31% and lithium oxide amounting to 1.686 million tons [1] - The company has successfully submitted a resource report to local government authorities, which has been approved [1] - The company aims to establish mining production by the first half of 2027 and achieve ore selection and production in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The proposed cancellation of mining licenses by the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau could impact the mining industry in the region, raising questions about resource availability and operational stability for companies involved [1]

数据来源:SMM WIND | 碳酸锂日评20251209:偏弱震荡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-05 | 较昨日变化 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-01 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 92800.00 | 90680.00 | 95000.00 | 2,120.00 | 1-1 | | | | 1 | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 93060.00 | 90760.00 | 95120.00 | 2,300.00 | m | 收盘价 | 93340.00 | 91020.00 | 95260.00 | 2,320.00 | 连二合约 | | | 1 | 2,320.00 | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 93340.00 | 91020.00 | 95560.00 | 7 | 收盘价 | 94840.00 | 92160.00 | ...

Core Insights - The city of Kangding is focusing on green development, leveraging its rich lithium resources and clean energy potential to drive economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Clean Energy Development - Kangding has a total hydropower installed capacity of 6.87 million kilowatts, with an expected total grid-connected electricity output of 26.135 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, generating a value of 6.876 billion yuan [1] - The city is actively promoting the construction of power grids, including the Sichuan-Chongqing ultra-high voltage project and the Jinshang-Hubei ±800 kV DC transmission line, enhancing the transmission of clean energy [1] Group 2: Lithium Industry Growth - Kangding aims for an annual output value of 1 billion yuan from its lithium industry, with confirmed lithium oxide resource reserves of 2.2915 million tons and potential reserves exceeding 3.5 million tons [2] - The city plans to focus on the development of the Ningde Times project to strengthen the lithium battery industry cluster and create a new growth pole for green industry [2] - Efforts will be made to introduce and promote "ecological mining" and "digital mining" technologies for the green, low-carbon, and intelligent development of lithium resources [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Mining's stock increased by 5.51% on September 19, reaching a price of 12.25 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.04 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.68%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 18.473 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd. is located at 55 Huanghe Street, Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, established on October 29, 1999, and listed on May 10, 2021 [1] - The company's main business includes iron ore mining, production and sales of iron concentrate and pellets, as well as processing and sales of manufactured sand and gravel [1] - Revenue composition: iron concentrate 71.07%, pellets 20.48%, sulfuric acid 4.58%, sand and gravel 2.73%, others 0.81%, zinc concentrate 0.32%, lithium ore 0.02% [1] Fund Holdings - Xinhua Fund has a significant holding in Dazhong Mining, with the Xinhua Active Value Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund (001681) holding 127,100 shares, accounting for 1.91% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The fund has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 81,300 CNY today [2] - The Xinhua Active Value Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund was established on December 21, 2015, with a latest scale of 57.4815 million CNY, yielding 7.36% year-to-date, ranking 6178 out of 8172 in its category; over the past year, it achieved a return of 32.45%, ranking 4925 out of 7980; since inception, it has returned 40.58% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has discovered a super-large altered granite-type lithium deposit in the Jijiao Mountain mining area, with a total lithium ore submission of 490 million tons and a lithium oxide resource amount of 1.31 million tons [1] Group 1: Resource Discovery - The significant exploration achievement in the mining area will be accounted for in the balance sheet [1] - The resources will be recorded as intangible assets once the mining license is obtained [1] - The subsequent depreciation and amortization will be calculated using the production method after the commencement of production [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the price trend of lithium carbonate futures lies in the interaction between supply - side disturbances and the peak - season expectations on the demand side. The news of the restart of Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has caused abnormal fluctuations in futures prices, and the market shows signs of irrational sentiment. The social inventory has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks, and the downstream inventory is in a healthy range, indicating the resilience of terminal demand. The demand side provides key support, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton in the next month. However, if the supply - side disturbances are less than expected or the demand - side restocking weakens, the price may face downward pressure [2][4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include potential production suspension risks of lithium mines in Jiangxi, uncertainties in supply due to green mine construction, and expected growth in downstream production. Negative factors include the filling of supply gaps as prices rise, the acceleration of overseas lithium mine production, and the risk of insufficient restocking on the demand side [4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price Interval Prediction - The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 76,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 40.7% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 67.2% [2]. Lithium - Ion Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Procurement Management - For cases where product prices are not correlated: When there is a plan to produce battery materials in the future and there is a concern about rising procurement costs, for the futures tool, buy corresponding futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry range of 67,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, sell put options with a hedging ratio of 30% and an entry point of LC2511 - P - 68000 [2]. - For cases where product prices are correlated: When there is a plan to produce battery materials in the future and there is a concern about rising procurement costs, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress with a hedging ratio of 70% based on the procurement cost; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% based on the procurement cost. When there is a plan to produce lithium carbonate in the future and there is a concern about falling sales profits, for the futures tool, sell corresponding futures contracts according to the production plan with a hedging ratio of 80% based on the sales profit; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 40% based on the sales profit [2]. Sales Management - When raw materials are highly correlated with lithium carbonate prices and finished products have a low correlation with lithium carbonate prices: When there is a plan to purchase lithium - containing raw materials to produce finished products in the future and there is a concern about falling sales profits, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress with a hedging ratio of 80% based on the procurement cost; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 60% based on the procurement cost [2]. Inventory Management - When there is a concern about inventory depreciation due to future price drops in the inventory of raw materials/lithium carbonate with a high price correlation, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract with a hedging ratio of 60% - 80% in the range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, sell call options with a hedging ratio of 40% - 60% at LC2511 - C - 79000 [2]. Futures Data - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 71,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 280 yuan (0.40%) and a weekly decrease of 2,420 yuan (- 3.30%); the trading volume is 426,041 lots, with a daily decrease of 325,439 lots (- 43.31%) and a weekly decrease of 286,110 lots (- 40.18%); the open interest is 323,456 lots, with a daily decrease of 17,358 lots (- 5.09%) and a weekly decrease of 30,218 lots (- 8.54%) [10]. - The closing price of the weighted lithium carbonate contract is 71,181 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 354 yuan (0.50%) and a weekly decrease of 2,218 yuan (- 3.02%); the trading volume is 564,454 lots, with a daily decrease of 498,948 lots (- 46.92%) and a weekly decrease of 382,933 lots (- 40.42%); the open interest is 778,508 lots, with a daily decrease of 17,672 lots (- 2.22%) and a weekly increase of 552 lots (0.07%) [10]. Spot Data - Lithium ore prices: The average price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 2.2%) daily and 90 yuan (- 4.83%) weekly; the average price of spodumene (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 3,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (- 2.56%) daily and 250 yuan (- 7.58%) weekly; etc. [19]. - Lithium carbonate/hydroxide prices: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.84%) daily and 2,100 yuan (- 2.89%) weekly; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.82%) daily and 2,150 yuan (- 2.87%) weekly; etc. [21]. - Price differences in the lithium industry chain: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan (- 2.17%); the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 6,570 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan (5.63%) and a weekly increase of 750 yuan (12.89%); etc. [25]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Brand basis quotes for lithium carbonate: For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan, with no change [31]. - Warehouse receipt data: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 38,391 lots, an increase of 290 lots from the previous day. For example, the warehouse receipts of Zhongchu Lingang increased by 220 lots to 750 lots, and the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Guochu decreased by 13 lots to 0 lots [34]. Cost and Profit - Lithium carbonate production profit: The production profit from purchasing spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lepidolite concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) shows certain trends over time [35]. - Lithium carbonate import profit and theoretical delivery profit also show certain trends over time [35][36].

Core Insights - Hunan Province has discovered a super-large altered granite-type lithium deposit in the Tongtianmiao mining section of the Jijiao Mountain area, with a total lithium ore volume of 490 million tons and lithium oxide resource amounting to 1.31 million tons [1] - The discovery includes associated strategic minerals such as rubidium, tungsten, and tin, all of which are newly identified resources [1] - Hunan Dazhonghe Lithium Mining Co., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dazhong Mining, acquired exploration rights and has been actively involved in the exploration process [1] Company Developments - Hunan Dazhonghe Lithium Mining obtained control of the exploration rights in the Jijiashan area after acquiring 80% of Chengtai Mining's shares for 7 million yuan in April 2023 [1] - The company aims to enhance resource development efforts and establish a significant position in the new energy industry chain, contributing to long-term shareholder value [1] Industry Implications - The discovery of this large lithium resource is expected to provide solid resource support for Hunan Province's goal of building a trillion-level new energy industry chain and a hundred billion-level new energy industry base in Chenzhou City [1] - This breakthrough in resource discovery marks a significant advancement in Dazhong Mining's strategic layout within the new energy materials sector [1]

Merger Overview - The merger aims to create a stronger lithium business with a diversified growth portfolio[12] - The merger is projected to generate annual synergies of approximately US$15 million[12] - The merger will result in Sayona Shareholders and Piedmont Stockholders each accounting for an approximate 50%/50% equity holding in Sayona[12] - Sayona will issue up to 12,056,194,283 shares to Piedmont Stockholders for the merger[26] Conditional Placement - A proposed issue of 2,156,250,000 Sayona Shares at an issue price of AU$0.032 to RCF is planned to raise approximately AU$69 million[12] - Funds raised will be applied to value accretive spend post-Merger Completion[12] Resolutions and Voting Results - Resolution 1 (Merger Resolution) was approved with 97.34% of votes for[27] - Resolution 2 (Conditional Placement Resolution) was approved with 97.32% of votes for[29] - Resolution 3 (Unconditional Placement Resolution) was approved with 92.78% of votes for[31] - Resolution 4 (Name Change Resolution) to Elevra Lithium Limited was approved with 97.62% of votes for[33] - Resolution 5 (Consolidation Resolution) was approved with 94.59% of votes for[35] - Resolution 6 (Remuneration Resolution) to increase Non-Executive Director remuneration pool was approved with 88.83% of votes for[38] Lithium Resources and Production - Combined lithium ore reserve estimate is 70.4Mt @ 1.15% Li2O[7] - M&I mineral resource estimate is 153.5Mt @ 1.15% Li2O[7] - Production capacity is 593 ktpa[7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again". When the futures rebound due to macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, a "step - by - step" upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" is formed [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the downward shift of the lithium carbonate price center [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and better - than - expected off - season performance; in the fourth quarter, the futures price is expected to fluctuate downward as technological transformation is completed and production is concentrated [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a historical percentile of 73.5% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous day and up 1,220 yuan (1.76%) from the previous week. The trading volume is 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots (6.55%) from the previous day and down 541,250 lots (-40.57%) from the previous week. The open interest is 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots (-9.27%) from the previous day and down 89,301 lots (-24.67%) from the previous week [8]. - **Month - spread Data**: The LC09 - 11 month - spread is 280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 480 yuan (-63%) from the previous week. The LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 yuan (13%) from the previous week [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan (10.59%) from the previous week; the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 5 - 5.5%) is 5,735 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan (-1.55%) from the previous day and up 275 yuan (5.04%) from the previous week. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li₂O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) is 780 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars (1.96%) from the previous week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.21%) from the previous day and up 2,050 yuan (2.98%) from the previous week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous day and up 2,500 yuan (3.55%) from the previous week [18]. - **Price Spread**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-2.33%) from the previous day and up 450 yuan (27.27%) from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis data of lithium carbonate shows different values for different brands. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI₂CO₃≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 12,276, unchanged from the previous day. Some warehouses, such as Wugang Wuxi and Jiangsu Bennigang Port, had a decrease in warehouse receipts [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit The report shows the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary part of this output [32]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in finished - product profits at a recommended ratio of 50%, sell call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and fear of raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium mining, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, with the de - stocking process progressing slowly, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance remaining unmitigated. There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - mining price decline - further lithium salt price drop" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - mining price increase". The cost curve is flattening due to technological upgrades, driving the central price of lithium carbonate down. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will decline in the fourth quarter as technological upgrades are completed and production is concentratedly released. - There are multiple factors affecting the price of lithium carbonate. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the market trading the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future production expectations of lithium mines, continuous inventory accumulation, and delayed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the lithium carbonate main contract and the LC2511 contract all increased. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 69,380 yuan/ton to 76,680 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 10.52% and a weekly increase of 12.83%. The trading volume of the LC2511 contract increased from 241,623 lots to 313,782 lots, a daily increase of 29.86% and a weekly increase of 235.73% [8]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Changes**: The month - to - month spreads of LC08 - 11, LC09 - 11, and LC11 - 12 all changed. For example, the LC09 - 11 spread increased from 760 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 121% and a weekly increase of 115% [10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily quotes of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li₂O:2 - 2.5% increased by 50 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.12%, and a weekly increase of 12.97% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Quotes**: The average daily quotes of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide also changed. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 63,350 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 8.76% [17]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, and between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price all changed. For example, the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 0% and a weekly increase of 3.13% [20]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The average daily quotes of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also changed. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from 32,665 yuan/ton to 32,690 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.08% [22]. 3. Basis and Warrant Data - **Lithium Carbonate Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, remained stable. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy's battery - grade lithium carbonate for the LC2507 contract was 100 yuan/ton with a daily change of 0% [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warrant Quantity**: The total number of lithium carbonate warrants increased from 10,754 lots to 11,654 lots, an increase of 900 lots. Some warehouses saw changes in warrant quantities, such as a 300 - lot increase in Suining Tiancheng and a 20 - lot decrease in Wugang Wuxi [29]. 4. Cost and Profit - There are graphs showing the production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [31].