Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) has shown a slight increase of 0.18% as of May 19, 2025, with notable gains in stocks such as Xiangjia Co., Ltd. (002982) up by 6.62% and Yike Foods (301116) up by 1.73% [1] - The recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Brazil has led to a suspension of poultry imports from Brazil by Mexico, impacting the poultry market [1] - A report from Guojin Securities indicates that the price of white feather chickens has rebounded due to previous price drops and improved consumer demand, while the supply of breeding chickens has significantly decreased year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy adjustments are expected to gradually boost consumer demand, leading to an increase in poultry product consumption and a higher proportion of high-end products [2] - The dairy industry is anticipated to stabilize and recover in the second half of 2025, with ongoing low prices for raw milk and an acceleration in industry capacity reduction [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 69.38% of the index, with companies like Haida Group (002311) and Muyuan Foods (002714) being the most significant contributors [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [87]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index decreased by 2.15% this week, while the overall market indices showed mixed performance, with the agricultural sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [12][13]. - New Zealand's beef prices are expected to rise due to increasing global beef prices, benefiting local exporters [3][23]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply pressure with a potential for price declines, but the overall sentiment is stabilizing after previous pessimism [4][41]. - Poultry prices are showing signs of recovery, particularly for white feather chickens, as consumer demand gradually improves [5][57]. - The dairy and beef sectors are anticipated to see a recovery in prices as supply constraints develop [66]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2612.71 points, down 2.15% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19% [12][13]. - The top-performing sectors this week were banking and real estate, while agriculture ranked lower [13]. 2. New Zealand Beef Market - New Zealand's beef industry is heavily export-oriented, with over 90% of beef produced being exported [3][23]. - The beef production in New Zealand for 2024 is projected at 694,300 tons, a decrease of 3.89% year-on-year, with exports expected to follow a similar trend [23]. 3. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.57 kg, indicating a high level compared to historical data [4][40]. - The current price for pigs is 14.97 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.11% [39]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector is at a valuation bottom, with potential for recovery if supply constraints are managed [41][42]. 4. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens has increased to 7.50 CNY/kg, up 2.18% from the previous week [57]. - The poultry sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer demand and a potential increase in high-end product consumption [5][57]. 5. Dairy and Beef Industry - The dairy sector is facing a reduction in production capacity, which may lead to price stabilization in the latter half of 2025 [66]. - The report highlights a potential upward trend in beef prices as supply constraints are expected to tighten [66]. 6. Planting Industry - The report notes fluctuations in grain prices, with corn prices at 2,204.29 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase [66]. - The planting sector is expected to stabilize as domestic agricultural policies are implemented [68]. 7. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have remained stable, with pig feed priced at 3.35 CNY/kg [77]. - Aquaculture prices are also stable, with no significant changes reported in major fish species [77].